TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s thoughts and fancies, and the usual stats/info section – Grey could strike Gold

1.25pm Newbury – 7/1 Gamrai could find the improvement needed here but very tricky race

Mount Atlas is a NR.

It is clearly a very moderate, low-stakes punting day.

Not a bad turn-out, all things considered, for this six-runner (now five) 100k Group 3 1m5f+ Geoffrey Freer Stakes, though.

The proven class horse, and 8yo, Dubai Honour ranges from [5/4] to [2/1] – though I imagine the latter won’t last – but he has his first start since running in Australia in April and this 1m5f61yd trip is the longest he has raced over.

The recent York 1-2, separated by a head, of Mount Atlas and Tabletalk are arguably more solid betting propositions – the winner Mount Atlas carries a 3lb penalty here  – but I can see why some would take a chance with the lightly-raced improver Gamrai at 7s.

He has a lot to find on ratings (15lb with Dubai Honour) but we all know how strong Royal Ascot handicaps are and his Copper Horse second confirmed his upward curve progression this year.

Bought since and sent to the impressive George Scott, this 4yo clearly has the scope for further improvement after just seven starts.

I haven’t had a bet yet and I probably won’t.

 

1.55pm Newbury – 4/1 Kinswoman is definitely the one to beat, and each-way proposition with four places

Seven Questions is a NR.

There is 30 minutes between ITV’s two opening contests, so I imagine this week’s political events in the racing and betting spheres will be getting an airing in between races (there is a good Deauville Group 2 at 1.33pm though).

As ever, these sprint handicaps are head-scratchers but we have a clear market leader in this 5f contest in the shape of [4/1] Kinswoman.

I can definitely see that as she travelled well for a long way over 6f in strong Group 3 company last time and she got dropped 2lb for it.

Back to 5f in handicap company, on quick ground, are obvious positives and a mark of 88 looks highly exploitable to me.

For example, she was beaten only a neck by Naana’s Sparkle off 88 at Yarmouth in May and the winner is now rated 9lb higher, while the third and fourth from that race have won since, too.

There is 4s, four places, out there (a fifth the odds) as at 9.15am on Friday and I actually think that looks a decent each-way bet.

 

2.10pm Newmarket – “The First shall be last, and the last first”.  Maybe.

I don’t think even the most shiniest-shoes-in-the-shop positive merchants will claim that this weekend is anything other than a bog-standard set of racing.

It is why a lot of people in racing take the fortnight off before York’s Ebor meeting.

Mind you, some well-known social media merchants apparently changed their tune on the Shergar Cup last week….

A sinner/critic that repents and all that etc…and we all have to play the media game to varying degrees.

I was quite surprised to see Newmarket’s Grey Horse handicap has persevered  – not least because we are short of all entries this summer, let alone officially grey ones – but 10 of the 11 five-day entries stood their ground at the overnight stage.

Quite what we can expect the ground to ride like at the July Course’s heavily-watered going (see below) and any resulting draw biases – the track is a law unto itself as regards official going descriptions proving (in) accurate – means punters should tread very carefully.

And I don’t see any pressing reason to get involved here, do you?

We have a couple of recent winners of this race (Archduke Ferdinand and Strike) and other repeat merchants , so that may give you a steer of sorts, but this is a poor 0-85 handicap – effectively a 56-80 in fact, with Fancy Dancer 7lb out of the weights, as well – and it’s not a race that screams “get involved”.

First Folio would be my main choice if pressed at a general 11s – the 8yo was only beaten a length in this off a 13lb higher mark than this in 2024 and comes in here in relatively decent nick off a falling mark – but do you really want to get involved?

Na.

 

2.35pm Newbury – 7/1 Addison Grey expected to be suited by step up to 7f – bet of day

Now, just eight runners for a 60k 0-105 handicap is disappointing – and not least for potential early-bird each-way punters.

Addison Grey probably interested me most here at a general [9/2] for a number of reasons.

Number one is that Clive Cox could have sent him for the 6f greys’ race discussed above – he won that race last season – and has decided to send him over 7f for the first time here instead, as he has continually shaped as if an extra furlong would suit (including when a close fifth here in May).

Actually, that point about the greys’ race is absolute rot, as he is rated 93 and the Newmarket race is a 0-85 (that said, he won it rated 88 last year…).

Thanks to the reader who pointed out my error.

Anyway, he is winless in five starts this season but he has run well in them all, and a mark of 93 is very fair on the balance of those efforts.

This could all be about the 7f trip suiting – and I think it will.

This doesn’t look a strong handicap for the money either, though Scoville and Great Acclaim are probably the right market leaders.

Addison now too big at 7/1 and 13/2

The 9/2 is fair and he may get bigger, too.

He has and he is now a general available at 13/2 as at 7.42am, and 7s in a place – that’s just too big to ignore.

If all eight go (if…) that’s a cracking each-way bet and certainly the best bet on a very quiet punting day.

I’ve got involved.

 

2.55pm Ripon – 20/1 Mark’s would be my each-way choice 

First things first, please get your money back if you punted any of the four balloted out runners ante-post (see below).

Secondly, this 6f handicap (run in support of MND) looks a nightmare to solve with 20 runners going at it across the track.

It is 2s each of three where you want to be as I imagine we may get three racing groups here and plenty of trouble in running, as well.

Whether Mark’s Choice is in the right spot in 17 we shall see then (I’d rather be drawn high than low on balance), but he has a fair bit going for him at 20 and 18s.

The handicapper did him a favour by dropping him 2lb for an okay run at Doncaster last time – the cheekpieces were left off there and are back on now – and the 10yo (yes, a couple of these are 7 years his junior) has now come down 8lb this season.

And this could be D-Day again on a track where he has recorded all his best efforts, as a 10-time course winner.

He wore cheekpieces in his three course wins last season and 20s is a touch on the large side for me off a mark of 67. His last win, to the tune of 1 1/4 lengths, in 2025 came off 66 here in September.

Let’s hope he is an oldie but goodie; you can get 20s , five places, and 18s with the same terms, too.

You decide how you want to play it. He may get bigger as he is available at 30.0 for pennies as at 4.24am on Saturday.

Dorney Lake, drawn in 20, is another plausible contender around the same price.

 

3.1opm Newbury – 14/1 Prince Of India could be the King Of Newbury

This is a pretty tight-knit 7f Group 2 on ratings (and a very lucrative one too with 165k in the pot). It lacks a stand-out, as the betting suggests, with the top six in the market ranging from [10/3] to [17/2] at best odds.

I am little surprised that the [10/3] favourite Never So Brave is coming here instead of the more valuable Group 1 at York next week, a race he won last season, but perhaps he will run in both.

And the winner cops over 93 bags here, after all.

He is the one to beat but Prince Of India is overpriced at [17/2] and 8s if you believe his run in the July Cup last time.

He is 14s win-only on the exchanges as at midday, which is surely at least four points too big. And he is that price each-way now; too big.

The handicapper had him improving 9lb in finishing a 2 1/2-length sixth in first-time blinkers there and he could have finished closer still with more racing room in the closing stages.

The step back up to 7f is no issue and he’d be my slight each-way lean in the race at 8s+.

I could see the each-way case for Witness Stand at 7s, too.

 

3.25pm Ripon – Roxby to Lord it over his rivals. Possibly.

Musical Touch is a NR.

Five (make that six) short of the 20-runner maximum for the 100k Great St Wilfrid – and six of the 15 are out of the handicap thanks to Aramram running – but none the easier to solve for all that.

Well it is, but you know what I mean.

The general [13/2] chance Lord Roxby is my idea of the favourite – that position is currently held by Fast Track Harry – and most likely winner as he is improving at a rate of knots and the ground, trip and track boxes are also ticked, too.

As for his draw in six, who knows?

The 13/2 is an okay price as this race may not take as much winning as is normally the case.

Play it however way you want but I haven’t had a bet yet, and probably won’t.

 

3.42pm Newbury – Mosheer heads the early betting at 3s

This race got added to the ITV schedule in midweek but I can’t see many punters having a bet in this 13-runner 2yo novice worth 40k.

Nine of the 13 are newcomers and the four that have raced have not shown a high level of form so far.

The books have put their fingers in the air and made Mosheer their [3/1] favourite ; he holds Group 2 Champagne Stakes and Royal Lodge entries.

I imagine there is a fair bit of exchange-tracking going on here, even though, as at 8.48am on Friday, only £145 has been matched on Betfair.

That’s £72.50 backed and £72.50 laid.

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

RIPON

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK: 7.2, Sat 7am

Rails: Rail on all bends on innermost position, no added yards.

Stalls: Straight Course – Stands side Round Course – Inside rail 1 mile 4 furlongs – Centre

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry for the past week. Saturday – Sunny intervals, gentle breeze, 23’c.

WATERING: “2-4mm applied the past week” – I assume they mean daily

Weather forecast:  22s degrees and sunny

NEWBURY

GOING: Good to firm

Soil moisture average = 40%

Going Stick 5.6 on Sat 6am

Stalls: 1m2f, 1m4 & 1m5f – Inside. Remainder (straight) – Centre.

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: We lost 3.8mm in evaporation (ET) yesterday. Forecast: Mostly sunny, slight breeze, highs of 26C.

WATERING: 10mm cycle Friday 7th. 8mm cycle Saturday. 8mm cycle Sunday. 10mm cycle Monday. 10mm cycle Tuesday. 10mm cycle Wednesday. 10-12mm cycle Thursday. ALL TRACK WATERED 4mm overnight.

Weather forecast:  27 degrees and sunny

 

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK: 7.0, Sat 6am

Rails: Stands Side Course in use.

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All other races – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry with daytime temperatures of 23c.

WATERING: 5mm applied after racing on Friday evening.

Weather forecast: 23 degrees and overcast; possible showers 9am-midday

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

2.55pm Ripon: Spirit Of Applause, Dream Deal, Showtime Mahomes, Yes I’m Mali

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Stellar Sunrise, 2.35pm Newbury; 21-140 (since 2016)

Paul Midgley blinkers; Emperor Caradoc, 2.55pm Ripon; 2-56 (2009)

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.25pm Newbury: Dubai Honour (drawn 3), Gamrai (1), Wine Dark Sea (2) – Mount Atlas is a NR

1.55pm Newbury: Regal Envoy (2), Kinswoman (9), Hucklesbook (5), Major Neigh Sayer (prom – 1), Rhythm N Hooves (prom – 2), Kanishka (4) – Seven Questions NR

2.10pm Newmarket: Archduke Ferdinand (7), First Folio (2), Nevasca Cinza (1), Act Of Violence (5)

2.35pm Newbury: Scoville (6), Stellar Sunrise (prom -3), Humam (1)

2.55pm Ripon: Kats Bob (5), Grant Wood (7), Magic Boy (14), Anaisa? (11), Mark’s Choice (17)

3.10pm Newbury: Witness Stand (7), Coppull (9)

3.25pm Ripon: Dark Cloud Rising (15), Khafij (7), Lord Roxby (6), I’m Next (10), Kodiac Thriller (prom  – 14), It Just Takes Time (2), Brighton Boy (4) – Musical Touch is a NR

3.42pm Newbury (very limited evidence): Too little to go on

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Harry Charlton (4 from 9 and a 12-1 winner on Friday), Adrian Wintle, Ralph Beckett, Ruth Carr, Adrian Keatley, Tom Clover, Ollie Sangster, James Fanshawe (another winner on Thursday,  at 7-1), Charlie Appleby (excellent), Charlie Hills

Fair: Seb Spencer, Tony Carroll, Andrew Balding (double on Thursday), William Haggas, George Scott (11-2 winner on Friday), Christopher Mason (1 from 5 of late), Roger Teal, Ian Williams, Richard Hannon, John Gallagher, Stuart Williams, Marco Botti (12-1, 3-1 and evens winners in last 48 hours), Eve Johnson Houghton, Grant Tuer, Liam Bailey, Gemma Tutty, Iain Jardine, Nigel Tinkler (fair/good), Brian Ellison, Mark Walford, Kevin and Lauren Frost (no winners),  Richard Hughes, Jack Channon, Hughie Morrison (1 from 5), Muir and Grassick, Ed Walker (fair/good), Owen Burrows (11-2 winner on Friday), Brian Meehan, Julie Camacho, Clive Cox, David O’Meara (fair/good), Tim Easterby, John and Sean Quinn, Richard and Peter Fahey, Bryan Smart

Moderate: Robert Cowell (despite a 3-1 winner), Roger Fell, Paul Midgley, Philip Kirby (3-1 winner on Friday), Mick Appleby (getting a bit better of late), Jonathan Portman (moderate/fair), Hayley Burton (small sample), William Knight

Don’t know: Dr Richard Newland (gone solo again), Amanda Perrett, Michael Wigham, Faye Bramley