TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s nine ITV races in focus – and all the stats/info and a morning betting update

1.35pm Ascot – 7/1 Glamorous holds most appeal, but still not much – no bet

I won’t bore you again with the jockeys’ situation. You can make your own minds up whether you stick with what/who you know, or trust in the depth of international talent on show.

I made up my mind pretty quickly here, in that I am not having a bet in this 5f handicap (race preview went live at 10.51am on Friday).

Or any race on this card, in truth.

I think All Ways Glamorous beat a well-handicapped horse here last time , with an in-form rival a length away in third, so a 5lb rise is fair enough in my eyes. As is this improver’s price of [7/1].

I’m a big fan of the trainer but I have no opinion on the jockey, other than, hand on heart, I’d prefer to have regular pilot Gina Mangan on board.

I imagine similar comments may be flying around during the day.

Remember, we will know the final runners by 5pm on Friday, so keep an eye out for any NRs before then.

And the resulting Rule 4s.

No reserves are needed, thankfully.

Punters could have done without the Rule 4s, though.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.02am)

Ascot betting moves have been affected by the Rule 4s from the exiting reserves, so bear that in mind.

My 7-1 lean All Ways Glamorous now heads the market at 4s and 7-2, and nibbles around for Tuco Salamanca.

As I always say on these morning updates, very early days, though.

 

1.55pm Newmarket – Favourite remains underpriced – lay the front two?

Unfortunately, we lost three at the overnight stage, so we have seven runners for the Sweet Solera, but nothing much has changed price-wise, though most each-way punters will have to make do with two places now.

Course and distance winner and Timeform big “P” horse Graceful Song is totally unexposed for an in-form stable, and of course the pedigree of this Dubawi filly is the best on show (though Martinet’s breeding shed may heavily dispute that), but surely nothing in her debut success justifies her being [11/8] here – though it looks like she is going to get even shorter still. That sexy angle lures people in, and her late sectionals, off a slow pace, were apparently very good.

Ascot Group 3 fourth and sixth Nuit d’Eclair and Harlequin Sky look more accurately priced at [11/4] and 11/2 respectively.

Obviously, with none of the other four runners having raced more than twice, it is entirely possible one of that quartet can step up and win – as form filly Nuit d’Eclair certainly doesn’t set a scary standard in this 7f Group 3.

Maybe Martinet at 10s is the best bet, but may be not be the best betting play

In fact, impressive recent scorers Martinet (her stable is in the best nick they have been in all season) and China In Your Hand (yard had a welcome winner on Thursday and another on Friday, and most have been running well enough of late, too) are perhaps the most attractively priced here at 10s and 11s respectively.

But it’s a guessing game and you can make a similar argument for the Newbury scorer Sugar Ya Please at 20s, while 40s chance Tie A Navyribbon was less than 4 lengths behind Graceful Song on her debut, shaping well on the near side, on her debut.

Lay the front two?

The way I may play this is to lay the front two and have the field running for me, or maybe just the favourite if she gets even shorter.

The way I will probably play this is no bet, in truth.

Martinet 10s is my idea of the bet if you want a sole win punt. It probably means little given the lightly-raced nature of the field but she is the only one of these to have made the pace so far, so Jack Gilligan may try to get a solo on the front end.

But nah.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.04am)

Graceful Song is out to 13-8, with Nuit d’Eclair into 2s and Martinet 15-2 from 10s.

Not a great deal of movement then.

 

2.10pm Ascot – 16/1 Dancing In Paris easily the best of the outsiders – but go easy on the puns please

As I mentioned in the Thursday scene-setter below, the presence of the GB and Ireland jockeys is going to compress the price of all horses they ride, at least until the main money enters the markets around 10-15 minutes before the off.

And perhaps much later still

Exhibit A is Shrimp Shady here.

No, really…

He has been on a steep upward curve since winning at Wolverhampton in March and he does look the most likely winner, but even a top price of [10/3] – that may not last and he is laughably short at [9/4] elsewhere – is maybe a touch defensive.

And if there is a non-runner before 5pm on Friday and reserve and leading Ebor fancy Beylerbeyi gets a run then he won’t even go off favourite (and trainer Ian Williams has three others in here…)

We all saw that Newmarket run last time, and I am sure Williams may be able to engineer a run for his horse here if he has the inclination, but Beylerbeyi would pick up a 4lb penalty for York were he to run and win here.

Not what his Ebor ante-post backers would want.

Paris to the Hilt

If you are looking for an outsider then course winner Dancing In Paris is coming into some sort of form while inching down the handicap, so he’d be my idea of the best outsider at 16s each way. He was also third in the 1m4f handicap at this meeting in 2024.

The 16s with the best each-way places you can get is a good move here.

I have never heard of the jockey Luke Ferraris – you shudder at the the puns that Sky Sports Racing and ITV are going to churn out here –  though an Ascot press release on Friday morning tells me this is his first time racing in the UK after riding mainly in South Africa and Hong Kong, and you have to respect his CV.

He is on a horse with a lot going for him at 16s.

That race preview was sent live at 10.54am on Friday.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.09am)

Beylerbeyi coming out prompted a chunky Rule 4,  so the moves here have to be taken with a pinch of salt,

The real Shrimp Shady has contracted to 15-8 tops as a result , and Hermetic has been cut into 5s, with my main Friday thrust Dancing In Paris probably the biggest “mover” into 13-2 (was 16s with Beylerbeyi in the market).

 

2.25pm Haydock – I’d much rather be a backer than a layer of Sallaal at evens

Danger Bay is a NR as at 5.57pm (girth gall), so down to just four runners.

Only five outfits priced this up earlier in the week, and the odds were all around the place in the formative stage of the market, when three places were on offer (for example, Danger Bay varied from 5s to 12s).

Pride Of Arras (was 6s) would have been a costly no-show for some speculative each-way players but, in truth, I imagine very little ante-post business was done.

Sallaal remains the same price he was in that ante-post market at the start of the week and I have no pressing desire to take him on at [10/11].

None at all.

His main form rival Convergent may initially look big enough at 8s but he carries a 3lb penalty and has run two Barry Crockers since that smashing Newbury return win – which more than hinted at Group 1 potential – and you are taking a lot on trust with him now.

Nahraan is far from solid at 3s too and 11/2 chance Danger Bay has a lot to find form-wise (though of course he would have gone very close to winning the John Smith’s Cup off 102 last time with an ounce of luck – hence why he was raised 2lb while getting beaten 4 lengths), while it is asking a lot of Sea Scout to win this first time up, even if he is the sole pace angle here, at 33s.

No, Sallaal has a hugely,  impressive progressive profile and, if faced with evens on any exchange (he has briefly hit that already), I’d prefer to be a backer rather than a layer.

But, in truth, neither is the preferable options.

This race is another Big Kevin Pullein.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.13am)

Nothing much doing here, with 11-2 poke Danger Bay coming out largely responsible for the trimming.

Sallaal is now 8-11 and Convergent is the strongest of the other three at 4s.

Actually, that’s a fair early move  for Convergent (8s with Danger Bay in market).

 

2.45pm Ascot – Ferraris has his work cut on tricky Castle Stuart

Ferraris is also on my old each-way sparring partner Castle Stuart here and he’ll want to be strong in the saddle to get these very tricky customer home.

Or maybe the horse will react positively to a fresh face on board, and possibly an even quieter ride than he is used to.

We are probably all guilty of thinking all international jockey are as weak as a baby’s piss in the finish.

Either way, I thought Castle Stuart was, once again, a fair enough each-way proposition at 7s with an extra place.

Now, this is a very competitive 1m4f handicap but he clearly ran a great race when placed in the John Smith’s Cup last time (finished fourth, placed third), with the only downside he was raised 3lb for it.

There are more potential negatives, too.

Obviously, I am totally in the dark with the jockey, who is having his first experience of the UK, and I am not sure about the 1m4f on a stiff track for the horse.

Furthermore, the Faheys only had their first winner in yonks on Thursday with an 11-4 poke, so the best betting opinion here is probably none.

And Castle Stuart is not a ride for the unknowing.

That went live at 11.12am.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.16am)

Night Breeze heads the market at 11-4 but I’d say Stem is currently the strongest at a tight 11-2.

 

3pm Haydock – Fallen Angel is very difficult to price up after absence

Maeva is a NR at 10.04am (going).

Fallen Angel, the only pace in the race that I could see and back to her optimum 1 trip, is going to have to be seriously off her game to be beaten here, but there is a big enough doubt to let her win unbacked at [8/11].

She is as low as [4/7].

Obviously, this unpenalised five-time Group 1 winner would laugh at these at her best – just how good does her 2 ¼ length defeat of Blue Bolt in the Sun Chariot at Newmarket last October look now? – but she hardly set the world alight on her return in the Middleton Stakes over 1m2f+ at York in May.

It’s not so much that performance that worries me – a reproduction of it may well be good enough here – it is the fact that we haven’t seen her since mid-May.

It sounds as if the summer dry spell is the reason though, rather than any setback, but my worry is that Karl Burke is hardly going to have her revved up for a Listed race off a break , however nice the pot, when presumably Group 1 autumn prizes are in the offing once again.

Plus drying ground is no positive for her here. It may have been good at Haydock on Thursday, but the main rain has been and gone it seems, bar light showers on Friday before a sunny Saturday of 24-25 degrees.

It is now good, good to firm, as of Friday morning, so they are doing a bit of watering (see below).

I thought she was exceptionally tricky to price up. She should be 2/5 but I wouldn’t be surprised if she went off 6/4.

I can see her drifting to odds-against.

I suppose Royal Ascot winner Alobayyah is the (very) obvious each-way angle here at 5s given her progressive profile and the regard in which she is held,  but she only won the Kensington Palace by a neck off a mark of 90 (albeit those races are desperately difficult to win), so she is toast if the favourite is anywhere near her peak (as are the rest). And four others are rated higher than her coming into the race.

I won’t be having a bet, but I do sniff an upset here.

Quite what by is another matter altogether. I’ll keep looking.

We can but Dreams…

Maybe even Mostar Dreams each-way at 66s. Actually, she isn’t a bad price for a horse in the mix ratings-wise below the favourite (joint fourth-best on official ratings if you believe that improved run last time) and with good course form.

She is also available at 18s without Fallen Angel and Alobayyah – that looks very fair to me. She ran a career-best when third in a Listed race at Pontefract last time, despite not being ideally placed.

Black type secured, maybe they will try to ride her a bit handier here on a track that may suit her better than Pontefract.

I’ve just managed to get £20 each-way at 66s and £20 win at 18s without the front two.

Life in the betting fast lane. The only bets I have had outside of a few modest speculators at Ascot.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.20am)

Probably the most fascinating betting event on ITV – there isn’t much competition, admittedly – and the late money will obviously decide what price Fallen Angel goes off.

She is currently 2.1 on Betfair and has hit evens on the fixed-odds front as a result (she ranged from 8-11 to 4-7 yesterday).

Not entirely surprising, as I argued above.

Nothing much going on in behind her.

I just wonder whether they will run her with the ground expected to quicken up to good to firm, good in places, during the day.

 

3.20pm Ascot 2/1 Call to Thunder home

American Gulf is a NR as at 1.57pm (going).

I hope Maureen Haggas is not put in the firing line once again for her comments on some of the (un-named) jockeys in this competition last year – maybe once on each channel and leave it there for the day – and her old man has the two shorties on the card in Thunder Call here (ridden by Jerry Chau – no, me neither, sorry) and Hoseki (Saffie Osborne – two from 10 for the stable) in the following race.

I suspect he may win with them both – without my cash to stop them.

Having just his sixth start here, Thunder Call followed up his York win in a very deep competitive handicap with a slightly unfortunate length third at Newmarket last time – that was a messy race pace-wise, with the winner coming stands’ side and the runner-up far side, and he stormed home in the middle – and he can race off the same mark here.

I think he is a fully justified [2/1] chance, and that may shorten.

The punters have to eat, so over to you Chau…

That went live at 11.29am.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.24am)

Anyasi (was 9-2) coming out would have resulted in a decent Rule 4, so you could argue Thunder Call is weak enough at 7-4.

Red Spells Danger is tight enough at 10-3 in a few spots and that may go.

 

3.55pm Ascot – 15/8 Hoseki to hose up?

Hoseki is currently the shortest-priced runner on the card at [15/8] in a place and a general [7/4] and, rather boringly, I think she just wins.

Like stablemate Thunder Call, she is having just her sixth start and she comes in here on a roll, in her case a four-timer.

On the face of it, a 5lb rise for a short-head win over course and distance last time is harsh, but the runner-up is a similarly lightly-raced type and they were 2 1/2 lengths clear of the third.

And she didn’t half power home.

Unexposed and progressive, she stands out here.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.26am)

Hoseki is 15-8 but Archers Bay is currently the strongest in the market, relative to their prices on Friday, at 9-4. That 9-4 looks a bit mean, though.

 

4.30pm Ascot – Howzat that 4s for Ozat?

I was surprised one group (two firms) went 5s about Ozat on Friday afternoon after Moore’s name was put alongside the horse’s name, and still mildly so that he is on offer at 4s as this race preview goes live at 10.47am on Friday.

No, the horse hasn’t got within four lengths of the winner in his five starts this season but they have come in much better handicaps than these. He finished eighth, beaten those four lengths in the Hunt Cup, and he clearly got no run at all at Goodwood last week (he is 2lb lower here) – he certainly wasn’t the only hard-luck story there as backers of Ebt’s Guard can testify to –  when punted into 18s from 28s on the show.

He has come down 6lb in the weights for those five runs and he now looks a very well handicapped horse, not just on that Ascot run but on his Group race efforts in France for his previous handler last season.

Granted, this is a decent handicap – so I may be a bit off in inferring this is a far inferior race than those he has been competing in – but the 4s is still a decent enough play for those that want it.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (8.26am)

Liam Gallagher vibes here.

As you were, LG x

 

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Betting shades of Chester at Ascot on Saturday

A thought occurred to me while waiting for the Shergar Cup jockeys to be drawn/made/announced around 1pm on Thursday.

Ascot on Saturday really is akin to betting at Chester.

Obviously, at Chester there is a big trade-off, and odds sacrifice, in getting with low-drawn horses.

And, likewise, you will be paying a fair ole’ price premium if siding with the likes of Ryan Moore (a World Pool ambassador this year, which I imagine is why he is riding in this for the first time since 2006), Dylan Browne McMonagle and Saffie Osborne on Saturday.

Is it worth it?

The bookmakers know they can get away with lopping a point or so off the home-based jockeys’ mounts – or should that be some, with the mob offering four places, especially, not doing themselves any favours – and simply inflate their over-round to make sure they aren’t being overly-generous about the rest.

By the way, Great Britain and Ireland are 8/13 to win the team prize (and as short as 2/5…).

And guess who the first three in the betting are to be the event’s top jockey?

Remember, if you are betting on the event, the reserves can come in up to 5pm on Friday.

Far better news for punters (it was 45 minutes before the races last year) but, as the Racing Post’s Craig Thake pointed out on X earlier week, potentially a nightmare for newspaper production desks.

I’ll cover the non-Ascot races in the morning, then the Shergar Cup thereafter.

 

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

ASCOT (Watered Round Course 4mm each night. Watered Straight Course 10mm on Friday)

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK: Straight Course: 8.2. Round Course: 7.1 (Saturday 7.30am)

Soil Moisture 37%

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: No rain recorded in July or August to date. It is forecast to be dry and warm through to race day. For access to our live weather station and the latest going info: www.ascot.com/thegoing

WATERING: Watered Round Course 4mm each night. Watered Straight Course 10mm on Friday. Watered Straight Course 10mm on Wednesday, 10mm on Monday, 4mm Saturday night and 10mm on Friday and 10mm the previous Wednesday.

Yr,no Weather forecast: 24-25 degrees; hot and sunny

 

HAYDOCK (3mm from the 1m start to the winning line, excluding the bend, on Friday overnight)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

Anticipate switching this description by racing this afternoon with a near 50:50 ratio this morning.

GOING STICK: 6.7, Saturday 7am

Soil Moisture 38%

Rails: All races will be run on the inside course. A home straight temporary rail extends to the winning line from the east home-bend.

Stalls: 7f & 1m: Inside 1m2f: Centre

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 6mm of showers during the week. Dry since Thursday. We lost c.3mm in evapotranspiration on Friday. Raceday: Dry and sunny 27°C

WATERING: 3mm from the 1m start to the winning line, excluding the bend, on Friday overnight.

Weather forecast;   warm and sunny Saturday

 

NEWMARKET

GOING: Good to firm

GOING STICK: 7.4, Saturday 6am

Rails: Far Side Course in use.

Stalls: 5f, 6f, 7f and 1m – Centre, All other races – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry with daytime highs of 23 – 25c for racing.

WATERING: 12mm applied on Tuesday, further 15mm applied on Wednesday. 5mm applied after racing on Thursday

Weather forecast:  dry and sunny

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (no reserves needed)

1.35pm Ascot: Indian Run, I’m Next, Desert Cop, Wheels Of Fire, Gangsta Man, Rosario, Fortification, Vintage Clarets, Underwriter, Mesaafi, Apollo One, Kylian

2.10pm Ascot – Beylerbeyi

2.45pm Ascot: Beylerbeyi, Yabher, Altareq, Wahdan, Raulin, Explode,  Great Bedwyn, Son Of Fan, Tryfan, Genealogy, Parlando

3.20pm Ascot: Flight Control, Debrief, Golden Brown, Arry Up, Kind Touch, French Affair, Cashbox, Go Vince Go, Anyasi, One And Gone

3.55pm Ascot: Al Ghariya, Ziata, Tai Hang Pegasus

4pm Ascot: Witch Hunter, Pellitory, Nizam, Angel Hunter, Dhahabi, Principality, El Matador, Christian David, Best Rate, Collecting Coin, Bravais, Longlai, Tex, Storm Star , Hickory

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Robert Cowell visor; Kylian. 1.55pm Ascot; 12-113 (since 2009)

Stuart Williams hood; Jel Pepper, 3.20pm Ascot; 3-40 (2012)

Ian Williams visor; Baltic Fleet, 3.55pm Ascot; 23-147 (2009)

Jessie Harrington cheekpieces; Pierre Grosse, 3.55pm Ascot; 28-332 (2016)

William Haggas cheekpieces; Bullet Point, 4.30pm Ascot; 35-219 (2016)

 

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

 

Good:  James Owen, Kate McGivern (1 from 3), Ollie Sangster, George Baker, Ed Bethell (15-2 winner on Friday, too), Jessie Harrington (fair/good), Richard Hannon (fair/good),  William Haggas, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Dylan Cunha, Ed Walker, John and Thady Gosden (fair/good), Roger Varian, Charlie Appleby, Sir Mark Prescott, Tom Clover (another winner on Thursday), Oliver Cole, Simon and Ed Crisford (another winner on Thursday night)

Fair: Kevin Phillipart De Foy, Grant Tuer, Archie Watson, Andrew Balding (fair/good – nearer good), Faye Bramley, Ian Williams, Eve Johnson Houghton, Katie Scott, Jamie Osborne (fair/good), Roger Teal, Christopher Mason (fair/good), Alan King, Stuart Williams, John and Sean Quinn, Marco Botti, Muir and Grassick, Richard Spencer, Karl Burke (fair/good), David Marnane, Hugo Palmer (fair/moderate), Owen Burrows (no winners), Charlie Fellowes (9-2 winner on Thursday and 5-1 winner on Friday), Adrian Keatley (fair/good), Ralph Beckett (double on Thursday), Charlie Johnston, David O’Meara, Tony Carroll

Moderate: Philip Kirby, Jim Goldie, Gary and Josh Moore (6/5 winner on Thursday and evens winner on Friday), Michael Bell (evens winner on Thursday), Robert Cowell (3-1 winner on Friday), Richard and Peter Fahey (11-4 winner on Thursday halted an horrendous run), Tim Easterby (5-1 winner on Thursday), Julie Camacho

Don’t know (small sample): Charalambous and Clutterbuck, Mike Murphy, William Stone

 

5.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.35pm Ascot: Fandom (drawn ), Spartan Arrow (5), All Ways Glamorous (11), Gold Star Hero (1), Cinque Verde (2)

1.55pm Newmarket (limited evidence): Martinet (4)

2.10pm Ascot: Spirit Mixer? (2), Lavender Hill Mob? (5), Marnier? (4) Pole Star (prom – 11), Hermetic (8)

2.25pm Haydock: Sea Scout (2) – Danger Bay is a NR

2.45pm Ascot: Claymore (12)

3pm Haydock: Fallen Angel (3) – Maeva is a NR

3.20pm Ascot: Shaatir (7), Jel Pepper (1), Grasmere Boy (2) – American Gulf is a NR

3.55pm Ascot: Blue Hercules (10), Royal Poetry (4), King Of Berkshire (8), Level Look (1), Last Verse (11)

4.30pm Ascot: Crown Board (12), Bullet Point (2)