TONY CALVIN: A 50-1 chance features among my bets today

RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

12.55pm Lingfield – Sweet to potentially reward each-way backers at 9/1

The favourite Twisting Physics is a NR as 9.54pm (bad scope). Big Rule 4.

Warning Sign is also out as at 9.26am (bad scope).

Lingfield have attracted only 37 runners for their five ITV races – 35 as at 9.54pm on Friday – but at least this 1m2f handicap has 10 runners (now eight), so each-way punters can be pretty confident of getting three places here.

They can’t be sure of how the track will ride, as the course have only told us “watering to maintain”. Maybe track biases will emerge.

The ground is currently good to firm, good in places, and we do have soil moisture and going stick reading updates.

Twisting Physics has worked his way to outright favouritism at [11/4] , having been [7/2] on Thursday, and there was certainly a deal of promise in his Newbury return.

Fast ground would appear fine for him (although he was pulled out at Newmarket last week), but one concern I would have at the price is the form of the Oliver Cole yard, which hasn’t had a winner since December, albeit they aren’t a numbers outfit.

I wouldn’t know a lot about 5lb claimer Olivia Tubb but her numbers look okay and she has a very fair chance on [9/1] chance Sweet Reward here.

The Jonathan Portman yard is in great nick and the horse himself ran well to finish second on his return at Epsom recently. He went up 2lb for that but that still leaves him 12lb shy of his 2024 peak, for all he is a 9yo now.

He could possibly do with a bit more dig but he has form on fast ground and appeals as a fair each-way bet at 9s (available in two places as this race analysis goes live at 7.35am – 8s is fine) against the dangerous favourite.

I’ve had a fair each-way bet to start the day.

1.15pm Haydock – 7/2 Tellherthename could take a world of beating despite the maximum field

Alnilam is a NR, so just 16s runners. One more NR and traditional each way terms of 1,2,3 will kick in.

Haydock have been sploshing the water on the hurdles track (see below) and, as with Chester, it has significantly altered the ground. It is currently good, good to soft, in places.

As much as it pains to me to say it in a full field of 17 (see balloted out runners below) – before Alnilam came out anyway – I think you have to ensure you don’t lose if the [7/2] favourite Tellherthename wins.

As I think he possibly will.

He underdelivered for his previous trainers but there wouldn’t have been many bigger Cheltenham eyecatchers then Tellherthename on his debut for Dan Skelton in the County Hurdle (maybe Jump Allen in the Martin Pipe and he got humped at 11/4 in a big-field Punchestown handicap next time – maybe a sobering thought) as he tanked through that race and never came off the bridle after meeting a wall of horses up the straight.

If he doesn’t resent the first-time hood, then I suspect the bookmakers will be resenting him around 1.20pm.

But the price does factor that in, to be honest.

20/1 Hamlet’s Night is my pick of the others

The 25/1 chance Bucephalus could give you a good spin from the front – there isn’t much pace in this race, especially with Alnilam out – but I thought Hamlet’s Night was a touch too big at 20s each way.

I have played very small.

James Owen is absolutely flying at the moment and his horse comes here after running well on the Flat a fortnight ago, having been dropped a quick 4lb for his two latest runs over hurdles.

A mark of 130 is workable on his early season form and maybe cheekpieces for the first time over hurdles will turn out to be a plus (not that he ran that well in them twice on the Flat).

He was only touched off in a photo in a 1m2f Flat handicap here in April 2025, his only start at the course. And decent ground is what he wants, so lay off the watering now, Daniel….

I have taken my chances at 20s each way anyway, but a win-only saver on the favourite will be happening at 7/2+. I may even have a back-t0-lay on Bucephalus at 25s+ on the exchange (currently 50.0).

1.28pm Lingfield – Stable form a worry here, too

No worries for the stable form of Aidan O’Brien and Andrew Balding here, and Charlie Johnston is chugging along okay too, but, as I have been saying for a while, Charlie Appleby can’t be happy with the way his horses have been performing as a collective.

Sure, plenty have been running well and going very close, but they have been massively underperforming as regards expected wins at their market levels, and they have had 14 winners beaten at [7/2] and below since Opera Ballo won – and plenty more besides.

I haven’t seem him struggle this badly for a winner for a long while.

So that would have to be in the back (or the front) of your mind if backing his Romantic Symphony at a best-priced [13/8] in this Oaks Trial, and a general [6/4].

Small margins are involved though, and his luck and form will return sooner rather than later, you’d imagine.

But his short-priced backers have been saying that for a while now…

I don’t have a betting opinion at all in this five-runner race. All have their chance, given their unexposed profiles and the fact that Bloom is top-rated on a mere 99.

You’d hope there are better days ahead for all five.

1.45pm Ascot – 40/1 Jannas could have more going for her than the odds suggest

Ascot’s three races on ITV are all hugely competitive handicaps, but I thought Jannas Journey had a much better chance than the general 40s (available with 15 firms) would suggest in this 1m fillies’ handicap.

She has hardly set the world alight in two outings this season, finishing last on her return and then only beating two home on the same track at Musselburgh last time.

But at least the handicapper has played ball and dropped her 4lb for those efforts,  and hopefully she is ready to take off now.

It took her five starts to hit the winning trail last season, and then she took off, winning seven races and improving her mark from 47 to 85, and then she ran well in defeat off the latter mark, too.

She is down to 81 here.

Maybe she would prefer a bit more ease but Timeform had two of those seven 2025 successes as coming on good to firm, so that doesn’t overly concern me at the price.

Jim Goldie is among the winners and 5lb claimer Lauren Young has ridden 31 winners for him at a decent strike rate.

1.58pm Lingfield – Expect an improved performance from 3/1 Maltese Cross

Six runners in the Derby Trial and Appleby has another twice-raced, unbeaten horse in here heading the market at [13/8] in the shape of Maho Bay.

He obviously has good credentials after an impressive return at Newmarket but, as with the previous race, all his rivals certainly have their chance against him.

And the stable form is a huge worry at the price.

Maltese Cross clocked a good time when narrowly winning a 1m2f Newbury novice in a bunch finish on his return and we will get a better handle on that form when the third there, Joulany, runs at Chester on Friday (the second has already run well in defeat since, as has the fifth).

The extra distance will suit this stoutly-bred Sea The Stars colt but 3s probably looks about his price in a race with plenty of unknowns.

But he is the bet in the race if you want one.

2.20pm Ascot – 50/1 Jordan can hopefully be electric again

Houquetot is a NR as at 8.01am (going).

Good luck with this 28-runner punting project, as they don’t get much harder than this 7f Victoria Cup.

Looking at the pace map below, I am going to whittle this down to runners drawn middle to high.

And I think Jordan Electrics is over-priced at 50s in four places – so hopefully the aforementioned Goldie and Young have a Saturday to remember at Ascot.

I am going to have a very small win-only bet on him, though you can get five places at 50s if you want. And six or seven elsewhere for an even greater safety net at shorter prices.

I know he is the old man of the party here at 10yo but I cannot understand why he is such a big price after a cracking run against Royal Velvet (more about her shortly) at Newmarket last time.

Remarkably, that was his first run over 7f but he didn’t curl up when Royal Dress flew past him and stuck on well enough for second.

He was put up 1lb for that but he is still 11lb lower than his peak mark, and some 9lb lower than when beaten just a length in a 20-runner York handicap last summer.

Drawn 27, hopefully he is in the right place when the music stops.

There are five, six and seven places out there – so pick your battles where you can.

Storm Free and So Darn Hot would be other leans in a wide-open race.

 

2.40pm Lingfield – 5/2 Royal Velvet went whoosh at Newmarket – and probably will do here, too

UPDATE: Do not have an each-way bet in this race.

Mandurah is a NR as at 5.33pm on Friday after the following, so we are down to seven runners.

Ascot stewards report today: “The Starter reported that MANDURAH (IRE) was unruly in the stalls and withdrawn at 3:27pm. Ed Walker was informed that the filly could not run until the day after passing a stalls test.”

Another tough race to call but at least we have no unexposed 3yos to consider, and a fair older body of work from which to punt, but, I imagine like everyone else, I was hugely impressed by Royal Velvet at Newmarket.

Okay, it was only from a mark of 91 but she went whoosh when spreadeagling that field late doors, looking every inch a Group horse (a decent time backed up the visuals).

She was never going to missed in the market after that success and she is “only” [5/2] in this, up in grade, and she could experience traffic problems if sitting off the pace on the favoured near rail from stall eight.

On the pace front thought, I couldn’t see an obvious front-runner, so that may not be ideal for her. And that presents an opportunity for a jockey with initiative

I still think she will win but I can let her stroll home at the current price.

Mind you, I think the [5/2] about her,  in three places as this goes live at 8.41am on Friday, could be coming under immediate pressure.

Maybe she will go off sub-2s and win.

2.55pm Ascot – 2/1 Valedictory may belatedly have his say here – but not at this price

Hermetic is a NR as at 7.32am (going).

The early market is all over the lightly-raced Valedictory in this 15-runner 1m4f handicap, and it looks like the 2s in a place won’t last as of 10.30am on Friday morning.

A lot of people weren’t happy with William Buick when this one was beaten a neck in a 1m2f Newbury handicap last time after being backed into odds-on.

Some may say this is pocket-talk, but losing punters have a right to have their say if not done in an abusive manner.

Billy Loughnane is on board here, with Buick at Lingfield, and his mount clearly has a huge chance , with the step up in trip an obvious positive, on run-style if not necessarily on pedigree.

He went up 3lb for that Newbury defeat but the winner is now rated 9lb higher after subsequently winning at Epsom, so I’d be inclined to think he wins this.

But not with my cash at the general [7/4], thanks.

Opportunity, gelded since we last saw him and decently handicapped off 91, is the obvious danger at 11/2.

No bet for me.

3.15pm Lingfield – 20/1 Sword could have the winning edge here for his new stable

As I said, just the eight in this 7f+ handicap, too.

Back In Black ran very well on his return in the Spring Cup and it is no real surprise to see him head the market at 2s.

That wouldn’t be a price that would interest me (though that 2s has now become just 6/4), and perhaps course winner Apotheosis at 13/2 and Sword (who was balloted out of the Victoria Cup) at 20s would interest me more.

I would take Sword’s stable switch from David O’Meara to Stuart Williams as a positive, and new owner Tom Morley could have got a bargain here, having paid 40,000 guineas for him in October.

He has been in the yard for a fair while then and he looks fairly treated on a number of runs, most obviously his third of 21 in the very valuable Ascot handicap in July.

The first-time tongue-tie is maybe a bit of a worry, as is the absence of his usual hood for O’Meara, but those could be something and nothing and he may simply be a more relaxed horse for Williams.

This is a decent prize of over 15k to the winner , so you’d hope he would be straight enough here.

The 20s looks an okay small-stakes interest if you want one.

 

 

SATURDAY STATS AND INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

ASCOT

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

“It is possible that Going will change before racing to Good to Firm, Good in places if drying conditions prevail”

Going Stick: Stands side: 8.1, Centre: 8.0, Farside: 7.9. Round: 6.5 Soil Moisture: 39% readings taken at 7.30am on Saturday 9th May.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

Saturday course update: Dry overnight to Saturday morning. A dry sunny day is forecast. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Watering: Watered Straight 8mm on Thursday and 8mm on Tuesday. Watered Round course 3mm overnight to Friday, Wednesday and Tuesday mornings and whole track 3mm overnight to Monday. Irrigated 26mm on Straight and 20mm on Round course through the previous week.

Yr.no latest (6.43am Saturday):  Dry and sunny, 21 degrees

 

LINGFIELD (“Watering to maintain” – not good enough)

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

Whole track was vertidrained w/c 13th April. The hill was terra-spiked yesterday.

Going stick: 6.9, Saturday 7.15am

Average soil moisture reading (09.05.26) = 50.5%

Rails: Rail is on the innermost line down the hill. There will be a cutaway in place at the 3f for all round course races.

Stalls:1m2f – Inside 1m3f – Outside Remainder – Centre

Saturday course update: Dry with sunny spells yesterday, highs of 18C. Forecast: Sunny spells today, 20C.

Watering: “Watering to maintain”

Yr.no latest (6.43am Saturday):  Dry and bright, 18-19 degrees

 

HAYDOCK

GOING – Hurdles:  Good, good to soft in places

Going stick: 6.4, Saturday 7.45am (was 7.2, Thursday 8am)

Rails: All hurdle races will be run in the centre of the jump track with the stable bend out 14yds and east bend out 8yds from the innermost line.

Saturday course update: 6mm last Saturday. Dry week since including dry last night. Overcast start on raceday, sunny spells and showers 0-5mm forecast: Met Office predict 80% showers from 14.00pm (1-2mm). Other forecasts predict 60% longer spells of heavier showers (5mm). Radar tracks rain staying marginally to the south east of Haydock Park entirely, update as necessary. Max temp 17°C

Watering: Hurdle: 6mm on bends, last furlong and back-straight Wednesday. Full circuit: (8-10mm) Thursday and (5mm) Friday.

Yr.no latest (6.43am Saturday):   5.6mm Saturday (starting 2pm-ish)

 

2.BALLOTED OUT (be sure to get your money back on these horses)

1.15pm Haydock: Paddockwood, Brendas Asking, Unjeu Royal, Mojito des Mottes, Scintillante

2.20pm Ascot: Sword, Master Richard, Diligent Resdev, Jimmy Speaking, Pietro Son, Winston’s Warrior

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Dan Skelton hood; Tellherthename 1.15pm Haydock; 10-47 (since 2013)

Fergal O’Brien cheekpieces; Frontier Prince 1.15pm Haydock; 12-81 (2016) 

Eve Johnson Houghton visor; Great Acclaim, 2.20pm Ascot 6-49 (2010) (2025)

Ed Walker cheekpieces; So Darn Hot, 2.20pm Ascot; 4-39 (2016) 

James Owen cheekpieces; Kirchner; 2.55pm Ascot; 10-59 (2024)

Micky Bowen cheekpieces; Whatsgoingonmarvin, 2.55pm Ascot; 1-6 (2025)

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

12.55pm Lingfield:  Noble Horizon (10), Youthful King (4), Sweet Reward? ( 5) – Twisting Physics is a NR, as is Warning Sign.

1.15pm Haydock: Laafi,  Bucephalus, Tellherthename? – Alnilam is a NR

1.28pm Lingfield: Bloom (5), Cameo (1)

1.45pm Ascot: Radiant Beauty (9), Song N Dance (prom – 6)

1.58pm Lingfield: A Taste Of Glory (5), Balzac (2), Bay Of Brilliance (1), Maho Bay (6)

2.20pm Ascot: Golden Mind (23), Khafij (prom – 18), Yorkshire (28), Humam?? (5), Ten Pounds (29) , Popmaster (2)?,  Morte Point (prom – 6) – Houquetot  NR as at 8.01am (going).

2.40pm Lingfield: No obvious pace – one of the possibles was Mandurah, who is a NR  – maybe Joe Leavy and Havana Pusey

2.55pm Ascot: Al Wasl Storm (5), Golden Grey (1), Whatsgoingonmarvin (prom – 7), Bulletin (6), Serenity Blue (8),  Wine Dark Sea (3) – Hermetic NR

3.15pm Lingfield: Mr Swivell (4), Apotheosis (prom – 6)

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)  – Charlie Appleby in worst form for yonks

Good:  Andrew Balding (big sample and in ridiculously good form), John and Thady Gosden (in the winners again on Friday), James Owen (very good – 25/1 winner on Wednesday, and among scorers on Thursday), Aidan O’Brien (mopping up Chester Group races),  William Haggas, Owen Burrows, James Fanshawe, William Durkan (very small sample), Olly Murphy, Dan Skelton, Killahena and McPherson (winner on Friday), Alastair Ralph, Luke Dace (small sample), Jonathan Portman (another winner on Thursday), Ed Walker, Michael Herrington, George Baker, Mickey Bowen

Fair: Ian Williams (double on Wednesday),  Ralph Beckett (winner on Friday), Richard and Peter Fahey (double on Thursday), Kevin Phillipart De Foy (fair/good),  Eve Johnson Houghton, David Menuisier, James Tate, Charlie Johnston, Ewan Whillans, Mick Appleby, Sean Woods, Neil Mulholland (fair/moderate), Emma Lavelle (winner on Friday), Tom Lacey, Alan King (winner on Friday), Anthony Honeyball, Faye Bramley, Jack Jones, Fergal O’Brien, Oli Rix (one winner; five runners), Tony Carroll (more winners on Thursday), Richard Hannon (winner on Friday), Jane Chapple-Hyam, James Horton, John Gallagher, Kevin Ryan (winner on Thursday), William Knight, Stuart Williams (could do with more winners), Simon and Ed Crisford, Clive Cox, Jim Goldie, David Simcock, Mike Murphy, David O’Meara (winner on Thursday), Ed Bethell (odds-on winner on Friday), Hamad Al Jehani (fair/moderate), Jamie Osborne, Muir and Grassick, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Henrietta Knight

Moderate: Tom Clover, Harry Charlton (small sample),  Stuart Edmunds (small sample), Oliver Cole, Henry Candy, Gary and Josh Moore, Charlie Appleby, Joey Ramsden

Don’t know: Martyn Meade (two runners; one beaten a nose at 11-1)