TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s stats and information – and a 28-1 chance is interesting enough

Keep an eye on times at Chepstow and Kempton

I am having another look now but nothing appeals as a bet in the ITV races again today unfortunately (at the moment)  the field sizes are very poor at Kempton – and I am not minded to force it.

It could ride quicker than advertised at both tracks, with the Kempton times yesterday pretty rapid.

Indeed, it is good to soft at Chepstow and the historic going stick readings suggests it is a good deal quicker – with basically the same readings it was called good to firm, good in places, at the track in October.

Rock My Way will like the ground and would appear to have excellent claims in the Welsh National but a price of 6/1 isn’t really doing it for me in a 19-runner handicap.

I also liked Sonic Pioneer in the Grade 2 juvenile hurdle at Chepstow after an impressive hurdling debut at Kempton, but I am not alone it seems.

He was 13/2 and 6s yesterday but is now a general 7/2 poke (4s in one place), so I have missed the boat there. He is another who would not mind it all if it rides a good deal quicker than advertised.

And, on the third inspection, a 28-1 poke appeared…

The closest I came to a bet in the ITV races was Musique De Fee, available at 25s in seven places and 28s in two spots, in the mares’ handicap hurdle at Kempton (1.20pm).

She comes with obvious risks attached, having put in a sour performance when pulled up over fences in soft ground at Hereford last week.

A return to hurdles on better ground may perk her up, and she is on a decent mark, just 3lb higher than when winning over 3m1f at Cartmel three starts ago in May (both of her outings since have been over fences).

And the quick turnaround shouldn’t hamper this hardy sort, as that Cartmel win came only two days after her previous outing.

The switch from cheekpieces to a first-time visor is interesting, too.

Georgina Nicholls did exactly that switch with Sea Of Charm at Wolverhampton in December 2023 , and that one won at 28/1, and that is the only time she has stuck a visor on her horses for the first time.

And all her best form has come on decent ground.

The 28s and 25s is fair, and I’ve had a tiny win bet on her, my only interest of the day.

Good luck today; I’m off to Cornwall for a few days, so my next column will be on Jan 1 or Jan 3, depending on the traffic coming back (just the seven and half hours getting there…)

TODAY’S DETAILS

KEMPTON

GOING: Good

Going Stick – Chase: 7.4; Hurdle: 7.0 (Saturday 6am)

Rails: The Chase Course is on its innermost configuration. The Winter Hurdle Course is 4 yards out from its innermost configuration, with the effect on distances added to race distance details.

• Race 1:Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y
• Race 2:Race distance is now +40y to 3m 161y
• Race 6:Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y

Saturday course update: Partly Cloudy. A low of +1C overnight. We had 17mm of rain on Thursday, December 18th. We had 4mm of rain overnight on Sunday December 21st. Forecast: Turning cooler, breezy and dry. Today looks cloudy with some sunny spells but cold.

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry, 8 degrees

CHEPSTOW 

GOING: Good to soft

39.9% Moisture

Chase: Good to Soft (GSt 6.1 on Sat 7am)

Rails: Shared bends, moved on to fresh ground. 2m and 2m3f races +24yds; 3m +39yds; WGN 3m6f +48yds

Saturday course update: 0mm Rain Friday; 4.2mm past week; Forecast – No significant rain for next 7 days – Saturday sunny intervals in morning, cloudy in afternoon with a moderate NE breeze, (7*/8*).

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry and sunny, 7 degrees

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

PACE MAPS (ITV races; manually assessed)

1.05pm Chepstow: Jour D’Evasion, Storminhome, Ballybreeze, Passing Kate

1.20pm Kempton: Della Casa Lunga?, Musique De Fee, Porter In The Park, Holly Hartingo, Audacious Annie, I’ve Madeupmymind

1.40pm Chepstow: Macktoad, Klycot, Sonic Pioneer

1.55 Kempton: Alnilam, Hansard, Mirabad

2.10pm Chepstow: Ambion View, Classic Concorde, Doctor Kildare (prom)

2.30pm Kempton: Saint Segal, Thistle Ask, Sans Bruit, Calgary Tiger

2.50pm Chepstow: Intense Raffles, Haiti Couleurs (prom), Mr Vango, Nassalam (prom), Monbeg Genius (prom), Rock My Way, Tanganyika (prom), Rock My Way (prom), Collectors Item, Jubilee Express, Livin On Luco

3.07pm Kempton: Viroflay, Beachcomber, Kap Vert, Bective Abbey

3.25pm Chepstow: Donnacha (prom), Western General (prom), Royal Jewel, Ben Solo, Lunar Discovery (prom)

3.37pm Kempton: De Temps En Temps, Trustintimes (prom), Wandering Ego

TRAINERFORM in ITV races (manually assessed)

Good: Ben Pauling, Harry Derham, Nicky Henderson, James Owen, Sam Thomas,  Parkinson and Smith, Jamie Snowden, Anthony Honeyball, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Gordon Elliott, Jane Williams, Dan Skelton, Robbie Llewellyn

Fair: Olly Murphy, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies, Gary and Josh Moore, Paul Nicholls,  Fergal O’Brien, Venetia Williams, Richard Bandey, Emma Lavelle, Alastair Ralph, Christian Williams, Harry Fry, Jeremy Scott

Moderate: Hobbs and White, Henry Daly, Evan Williams, Russell and Scudamore, Martin Keighley, Thomas Gibney, Clive Boultbee Brooks, Tom Symonds, Tom Lacey, Joe Tizzard

Don’t really know:  Samuel Drinkwater, Matt Sheppard, Chester Williams, David Brace, Rebecca Curtis, Sara Bradstock, Georgina Nicholls, William De Best Turner; Nigel Hawke (one runner, one 300-1 winner…)