By Tony Calvin - 7 March 2025
The going has been updated at all three ITV tracks, with impressive levels of details from Sandown and Wolverhampton in particular.
It has been a pretty quiet time, as you’d expect. And we are probably only dealing with around 5-10 per cent of the money that will be bet into the markets.
Meetmebythesea has been cut from 4s to 3s in the 1.50pm at Sandown, but Kepler’s Law is the big mover here into around 8s. The firm still offering 16s (yes, that one) is asleep at the wheel.
Kepler’s Law was as big as 18s this morning.
I am assuming it isn’t a Rule 4 job….
Peso is a NR here.
The market has been pretty static for the Imperial Cup, but Spirits Bay and Afadil have been the ones for whatever money is sloshing around ([7/1] and [13/2] respectively).
Afadil was trading at 14.5 on the exchange on Friday evening, so he is the main move, for sure.
Charisma Cat has hardened to [11/8] in the 3pm, a race in which Supreme Malinas has also been popular – the former is as low as [11/10] – and Hubrisko is 14s and 12s into 8s in the 3.35pm.
Famoso opened at 16s and 14s on Thursday and that one is into 8s in the 2.05pm at Hereford.
Whip Cracker was available at [15/2] on Thursday and he is into [7/2] best in the 2.45pm at Wolverhampton – Empirestateofmind is a NR here – and not a lot is doing in the 3.20pm.
It is very early days though, and there is plenty of time for the above to be turned on their heads when the liquidity arrives.
This is very boring I know but I don’t think I have ever seen all horses confirmed for such a big field before – there were 24 in this on Thursday morning, and they all threw their hat into the ring – and that meant six horses were balloted out.
The list is below, so ante-post backers of any of those six are due their money back.
As you would expect with a full field for this EBF final, it is a very tough puzzle to solve.
For many it will begin and end with the sexy and lightly-raced pair of Belliano or Meetmebythesea, but they weren’t missed in the ante-post market and they still haven’t been at best prices of [11/2] and [9/2] respectively.
Actually, you can throw 5s chance The Kemble Brewery ([4/11] when beaten by Meetmebythesea at Ludlow last time) into the same category.
But Emma Lavelle has two fair arrers to throw here with George’s Lad and Silver Thorn, [13/2] and 18s respectively.
As ever, I am drawn to the bigger-priced one of the pair.
It is a weights-and-measures thing really, as he is 7lb better off (some may say 10lb but claimers claim for a reason) for a 3 ¼-length beating by Belliano at Market Rasen last time, and Lavelle presumably thinks a first-time tongue-tie will help him, too.
She is having a great season with 40 winners, and has had four recent successes too (from just 11 runners), and often the flashier types are found wanting up this Sandown hurdles hill.
And his proven, winning, stamina over 2m6f in heavy ground could stand him in very good stead here.
I’ve had a very small each way bet on him at 22s, and the 18s still out there is okay (the 20s went overnight).
If you fancy Belliano at [11/2] then you have to like him at 18s.
It is a very deep race though, and it’s a minimal-stakes bet. I could definitely see the case for Not So Woolly yesterday (his form also ties in with Belliano) but the 28s downwards disappeared about him, and he is into 18s, and that may come under pressure soon.
A reluctant pass, but the 18s out there, six places, is a very fair trade, if you are one of the chosen few with that account.
By the way, do check out the going and watering details below (just updated 9.18am Friday)
If Sandown can provide such detailed information then Cheltenham, the biggest betting week of the year, should be giving punters a damn sight more than, effectively, saying “we started watering yesterday”, with zero details attached.
There were only seven in this race at the five-day stage, so good news that they only lost two at the overnight stage.
Mackenberg is available at [13/2] in six places, and maybe the first-time cheekpieces will perk him up (stable has a decent record with them – see below).
If they do, a mark of 129 is certainly highly exploitable.
He was set to win this very race by a street last season, only to veer right after the last and unseat Theo Gillard (it was a very soft unseat, in truth), and he was raised to a mark of 142 afterwards.
As the drop in the weights suggests, he has shown very little since, and the form of the Donald McCain yard is not great, but he will win this on his “form” in this race last year.
If.
But the [13/2] is probably worthy of a small-stakes nibble, for all the many doubts involved. It is a very winnable race.
Surprisingly perhaps we didn’t get a full field of 22 for the Imperial Cup – we lost 11 at the overnight stage – so we have “just” 17 runners here.
Thankfully, one of those is Ooh Betty, who I made for the case for at 16s each way on Tuesday.
Rather boringly the case I made for her then, stands.
She has that all-important Sandown hurdles’ form (important to me, anyway) having won here decisively by 3 ½ lengths in November – others with solid proven course form include, last year’s winner Go Dante, last year’s winner, Knickerbockerglory (fifth and second in the last two runnings), Hardy Du Seuil and Spirits Bay – and that is not where the positives end as to her chances.
She is 9lb higher here but that seems more than justified given the way that form has worked out – the runner-up is now 8lb higher, and the third has run two crackers in defeat, too – and she has since gone on to win at Kempton and finish an excellent third in a Grade 2 at Ascot.
Sods law then that the only time I have backed her this season she ran inexplicably badly at Newbury, so I guess she may have the odd blow-out performance in her.
Though I just wonder if she was not suited to being held up so far off the pace there, and her three other runs this season have seen her sit far more handily.
Trainer Ben Clarke is in good enough form with his small string (two recent winners from six runners, albeit both were 5/4) and the handicapper has played fair by not raising her for her third at Ascot last time.
He could have given her a pound of two, and I loved the way she travelled through that race before the form horses asserted from the last.
The drying ground is in her favour, though the going stick reading on the hurdles course suggests there is plenty of dig knocking around.
They have been watering though, as well – see below – so that bothers me a touch, but hopefully the ground will be fine for her with another 24 hours of sun and decent warmth.
As you would expect, there are no end of dangers in this, but she is 12s in a couple of spots, with firms offering five places, and that remains very acceptable.
Go Dante would undoubtedly like more dig but, as I said above, the going stick reading on the hurdles course suggests there is still plenty of moisture in there (and it is still officially good to soft, soft in places, after all), and the 9s about him, five places, with four firms, on Thursday looked a pretty solid second choice.
Unfortunately, that was taken and he is now best at [15/2] with two outfits.
He didn’t run at all badly at Newbury last time, shaping as if he was finally coming to the boil again, and the handicapper may have been a touch hasty dropping him 3lb in one fell swoop.
That puts him on a mark 2lb lower than when inching out (it wasn’t even an inch, take that from someone who backed the second) Faivoir in this race last season, and he has to be a big danger to all here.
I suppose there is a chance he could get pulled out if connections are worried about the ground (and it will dry further), but it is money-back territory now anyway.
And I guess there is also a fair possibility that he may drift if they run him on goodish ground but I’ll take my chances at the current odds (Timeform had him as winning on good to soft at Cheltenham in 2023), and, while not exactly Langer Dan-esque (I’m not looking forward to that sideshow next week), he does tend to come alive in spring.
I could go on and on about others with chances – the likes of Spirits Bay (from the stable that won this in 2016 and 2018, and who haven’t had a runner in it since) but Ooh Betty and Go Dante would be my two against the field, with the extra places a handy safety net.
A full field for this Lincoln Trial (Urban Sprawl was balloted out, so it is money back there), and it is obviously highly competitive.
There is no point in lying. I haven’t got a handle on all-weather form at the best of times, let alone at this time of the year, so you are on your own.
I did have a look, but it came to nowt.
I rarely bet in bumpers, and I won’t be making an exception here in this mares-only race.
All 10 from the five-day entries stood their ground and the market seems to have got this well covered/cornered in making the Market Rasen placed horses, Charisma Cat and Dream Shadow, the [9/4] and [4/1] market leaders respectively.
It could well be that Dream Shadow didn’t run up to her best there, having won in a good time at Uttoxeter previously, back in October, from a stablemate who won recently, and she’d be my nominal choice at 4s (though that is available in just one place).
I won’t be getting involved, though.
Same comments apply to the 2.45pm, though stable form (and I appreciate it is a very small sample) would not put you off Willem Twee here.
James Fanshawe has had three winners from his last four runners and William Twee has won on his only start here over 6f, and steps up to 7f for the first time since contesting over it on his first two outings.
He seemed to stay it very well then and he is bang there on official ratings.
Yes, if you want a bet than Willem Twee looks the likeliest lad to me at 10s and 9s, for all it is a very tight-knit race on the figures, with the 99-rated, and 16s poke, Royal Zabeel certainly not out of this, either.
The numbers for the hurdles and bumpers have held up very well, but the chase course is a fair bit quicker and this race has suffered, being reduced from 20 to six.
There is a fair bit of pace in here, all the same, so this could be especially tactical.
Hubrisko looks a little overpriced at 14s and 12s after showing a lot more at Musselburgh last time. He got dropped a further 2lb for that, and he is now on a very attractive mark if the in-form Harry Derham can coax him back to the form he showed for Willie Mullins in Ireland, notably a Killarney win over 2m7f in 2023.
He has form on decent ground, so that shouldn’t be an issue either.
That 14s is available in just one place, but if you can access it please do. I can see him starting in single figures, especially with the stable rattling along.
I may have to settle for 12s myself, as soon as someone wakes up….
Go Dante at [15/2] each-way, five places, in 2.25pm at Sandown. Available with two firms.
Going – Chase: Good, good to soft in places: Hurdles: Good to soft, good in places
Going stick – Chase: 5.0; Hurdle: 4.6 (Saturday 8am) – Chase was 5.3 on Thursday, and Hurdle is unchanged at 4.6
Saturday morning course update: 33mm rain from Feb 19 to Feb 26 inclusive. Dry since Feb 27. No rain Friday, dry overnight and Saturday will be dry, with sunny spells and up to 16 degrees.
Watering: Selective watering began on Tuesday to maintain Good ground. Repeated Wednesday – 7mm each application. Covers most of the Chase Course Back Straight, and about 2 furlongs of the Hurdle Course Back Straight. Repeated Thursday and scaled down to 4mm Friday. Pond Fence to 2nd last 5mm Friday
Travel: J10 to J11 of the M25 is due to be closed in both directions from Friday evening 7 March to Monday morning 10 March, therefore impacting Saturday’s racing. The A3 remains open, but with diversions in place to reach it from the M25.
HEREFORD
Going: Good
Going stick – Chase 6.5; Hurdle: 6.6 (6.30am Saturday)
Weather: Dry and sunny
Saturday morning course update: Dry yesterday Forecast Sat – Dry and sunny 16C
Watering on Thursday: Selective light watering to maintain
WOLVERHAMPTON
Going: Standard
The track will be harrowed to a depth of about 3 1/2″ and re-instated with a gallopmaster finish.
Weather: 0.4mm rain Thursday night. Friday – remaining dry 15c. Saturday – dry overnight. A sunny day with a 10mph ESE wind. Max 17c
Stalls:7f 36y outside; Remainder inside
Eligible for 100k bonus: Afadil, Batman Girac, Bo Zenith, Go Dante, Knickerbockerglory, Lump Sum, Ooh Betty, Spirits Bay, Tapley, We’re Red And Blue
Joe Tizzard cheekpieces – Not So Woolly, 1.50pm Sandown; 2-18 since 2022
Donald McCain cheekpieces – Mackenberg, 2,05pm Hereford; 16-108 since 2016
1.50pm Sandown: Broderick, As Legends Have It, Kissman, D’Jo Dela Barriere, C’Est Different, Holeshot (all 24 entries were confirmed at the overnight stage)
2.45pm Wolverhampton: Urban Sprawl
2.25pm Sandown: Sorceleur (1lb), We’re Red And Blue (1lb), Big Ginge (5lb)
1.50pm Sandown : The Kemble Brewery, Meetmebythesea, Belliano, It’s Hard To Know, Disco Davis, Aviation, Ken Roy (prom), Malinificent (prom)
2.05pm Hereford: Hypotenus, Western General (prom)
2.25pm Sandown: Knickerbockerglory, Bo Zenith, Ooh Betty (prom), Afadil (prom), King William Rufus, Sorceleur, We’re Red And Blue, Big Ginge
2.45pm Wolverhampton : Symbol Of Light, Too Tempting (prom), Whip Cracker (prom), Empirestateofmind, Silent Age
3.00pm Sandown (little evidence to go on): Philippa’s Choice, Easy Love, Roses All The Way
3.20pm Wolverhampton: Al Shabab Storm (prom), Golden Mind?, Royal Zabeel (prom), Fair Angelica
3.35pm Sandown: Goshen?, Excello, Hubrisko, Holy Joe Smoke, Dreaming Blue
Excellent: Ben Pauling, Sam Thomas, Harry Derham, James Fanshawe (three winners from five runners)
Good: Emma Lavelle (another winner on Thursday), Jamie Snowden, Willie Mullins (probably only fair for him), Ben Clarke (maybe fair), Olly Murphy, Johnny Murtagh (small sample), Ian Williams, Grant Tuer
Fair: Dan Skelton, Paul Nicholls, Joe Tizzard, Matt Sheppard (one winner from few runners), Bailey and Nicholls, Laura Morgan, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (maybe still moderate), Neil Mulholland, (winner on Thursday), Lucy Wadham, Tim Vaughan (winner on Friday), Nicky Henderson, Alastair Ralph, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Fergal O’Brien, Anthony Honeyball (double on Thursday), Henry Oliver, Richard Hughes, Richard Hannon, Newland and Insole, Marco Botti, Richard Fahey, Roger Varian (13-2 winner on Friday), Julie Camacho, Evan Williams, Jennie Candlish (winner on Thursday), Gary and Josh Moore (double on Thursday, and a winner on Friday)
Moderate: Donald McCain, Alan King, Chris Gordon, Warren Greatrex, Brian Ellison, John and Sean Quinn, Mick Appleby
Don’t know: Joe Tickle, Paul Collins, Suzy Smith (one winner from few runners, though), Henrietta Knight, Clive Cox, Jonathan Portman (one 9-1 winner from very few runners, so probably good), Paul and Oliver Cole, Keiran Burke (one 22-1 winner, two runners, so probably very good)
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