TONY CALVIN: 25/1 chance could spring a shock but a 13/2 poke definitely has the form to win

3.35pm Newmarket, 2,000 Guineas – Ruling Court could hold sway but price has gone for now

At the time of writing, we don’t know how much the watering (see amounts below) will have affected the ground, or indeed if the clerk will go in again after racing on Friday, so that is something to bear in mind

I am not exactly sure what to bear in mind, mind you…

Like most people, I was blown away by Field Of Gold’s win in the Craven, but he has probably now hit his “correct” price (some firms unbelievably went 6s and 5s about him in the immediate aftermath of that 3 ½-length defeat of Wimbledon Hawkeye), which takes him out of my betting equation at least.

It is not as if he has anything in hand over some of this field anyway – and any over-watering would probably not be in his favour on the scant information known to us – as he is 2lb shy of Dewhurst winner Shadow Of Light on official ratings, and he is the same horse as Expanded.

I can easily let him pass at [2/1], as of on Friday afternoon, for all he is much the likeliest winner.

The vibes around Shadow Of Light have been negative ever since he had a recent, underwhelming racecourse gallop with Highland Avenue, and a first-time tongue-tie is unlikely to silence the doubters. However, he has hardly been totally discarded in the betting at 7s.

If there has been a notable mover in recent days it has been for his owner/stablemate Ruling Court, and I can certainly see that.

He too wore a tongue-tie for the first time when winning as he was entitled to at Meydan at the start of the month (he only beat a 93-rated horse, but boy was he impressive), and maybe his wind was the reason for his slightly disappointing 2 ½-length third to The Lion In Winter and Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Acomb.

Then again, the paddock posse (an increasingly profitable gig, it seems) reportedly were not massive fans of his demeanour beforehand (edgy and sweated up, apparently), so perhaps he wasn’t at his peak physically, and we didn’t see him at the back-end, after all.

Time has shown that York form to be pretty hot though – the 7 ¼-length fourth, The Waco Kid, won a Group 3 here afterwards and of course the runner-up won the Royal Lodge – and the gossip and the betting strongly suggest he is Godolphin’s number one.

He is just [4/1] now, though – the [9/2] with one firm was taken – having been 7s immediately after the Twain news broke earlier in the week.

In truth, this is a hard race to get handle on betting-wise.

Dewhurst runner-up Expanded is rather Aidan O’Brien’s number one by default after Twain misses the race with a dirty scope earlier in the week, but a 118-rated substitute ain’t bad, is it?

He is only [11/2] though, and as short as 4s. He has drifted to [13/2] on Friday afternoon, though

I haven’t had a bet in the race, and probably won’t unless there are some serious drifts near off-time, but I can see the each-way case for Mr Solid But Not Spectacular Wimbledon Hawkeye, though again he was 33s on Tuesday and is now just 20s.

Granted, he is bigger win-only on Betfair (28.0) at midday on Friday.

I am not minded to have a bet just because it is a Classic – and I haven’t even mentioned the Irish Group winners Scorthy Champ and Green Impact (stable form a big worry there) – and I’d need Ruling Court to drift from 4s if I am to get involved.

He could be the one with the unexposed X-factor, along with the favourite, but I’d want paying properly to gamble on that being the case.

By the way, five firms are paying four places. Effectively three, as one bookmaking outfit are responsible for a trio of those.

1.45pm Newmarket – 7/2 More Thunder has black-type potential

Thankfully, the numbers for this valuable 100k 6f handicap held up very well at the overnight stage, though we are still 12 shy of a maximum field with 13 runners.

Three of these are ahead of the handicapper – More Thunder (3lb), Aramram (3lb) and Run Boy Run (2lb) – and the first-name is predictably the favourite at [7/2] – the 4s was taken on Thursday – after a scintillating debut for William Haggas here last month.

If he is as good as he looked there (he beat Aramram and Woodhay Wonder, who reoppose here and are priced at [13/2] and [5/1] respectively), then he could take a lot beating.

He won in the manner of a horse for whom thoughts of black-type races were not fanciful, an impression backed up by a good time, though this is going be a very slick 6f for a horse who has been tried over 1m2f.

That formline could be crucial here – and the better ground could see Woodhay Wonder be even more competitive here, and be a decent each-way bet at [5/1], four places to some  – but I accept that connections of all three will be fancying their chances here, for all this handicap has depth elsewhere, too.

I’ll sit and watch without a bet.

That [7/2] in two places about More Thunder, a horse with the most upside, may be coming under pressure soon.

But as at 5pm on Friday, he was available at a tempting 4s in a place again.

2.00pm Goodwood – 13/2 Chic Colombine has the form to win this, if not optimum ground perhaps

A very tricky 1m fillies and mares’ race, in which it wouldn’t be a surprise if any one of four went off favourite when the proper money arrives late.

Chic Colombine is the outsider of those four at the moment at [13/2] – she was 7s in a place on Thursday – so she probably appeals most at the current prices.

All her best form has come with some dig, so that’s an obvious concern, but on the two occasions she raced on fast ground (her first two outings) she ran perfectly respectably.

A 6-length Listed race winner in France last season, she was ridiculously unlucky not to follow up at Epsom in Group 3 company two starts later – and I mean seriously unfortunate – and on those showings she could come out best here.

She didn’t pull up any trees on her final start last season or on her reappearance behind Dancing Gemini at Doncaster (when wearing a first-time tongue-tie), but all the horses in front of her were rated 107 and above and this is an easier race.

She may well be pulled out on the day if they think the ground is too quick for her, but it is obviously money back if they do.

I am going to try to get some of that [13/2].

2.20pm Newmarket – 25/1 Metallo could be overpriced and I’ve backed him

Another 100k handicap that is 12 shy of a maximum field of 25, but it looks a decent race.

At the current prices Metallo made a deal of appeal at [25/1] each way, four places.

There are obvious negatives , not least a moderate run at Newbury last time, and who knows what the first-time blinkers will do?

The initial headgear angle is interesting on the basis that Jack Channon has never used them before, and his old man only sparely opted for them (see below).

But connections (or probably more accurately jockey Rossa Ryan) probably thought he was swinging the lead at Newbury last time, so the blinkers are on.

The 4yo is relatively lightly-raced and has enough star names on his CV to make his mark of 85 appear highly exploitable.

He beat a certain Dancing Gemini in a 7f Salisbury maiden on fast ground in 2023 and he is now 2lb lower than when second to Old Harrovian over 1m2f four starts ago. Admittedly, the winner laughed at him there but he is now 12lb higher.

Channon has been in great form since February and it wouldn’t surprise me if Silvestre De Sousa gunned him out in front here (as he did when chinning Dancing Gemini) and sees what transpires.

The blow-out potential is obvious, but he is well worth chancing at the price. He is the only bet I have had at Newmarket so far (at 22s), and I will probably end up pressing up win-only on the exchange as he is the sort to go off at 40 or 50+ there.

Hand Of God will of course take a lot of whacking.

2.35pm Thirsk – 8/1 Hi Royal weighted to go well

The Thirsk clerk has been taking his racegoers and punters for fools down the years with his personally adjusted going stick readings, and he can’t be bothered to give details of his watering, either.

That could be interpreted as unprofessional.

And that goes for the other courses that have kept their watering secret this week (three or four of them).

It hardly makes you minded to bet at his course (or these courses).

It is difficult enough just concentrating on the form alone around a track that can serve up hard luck stories over this mile, so little wonder it is 6s the field.

We have two previous winners in here in Northern Express (2023) and Redarn (2022) , and two other course winners in La Trinidad and Cruyff Turn.

All of those have their chances, but the handicapper has certainly given Hi Royal, from the in-form Kevin Ryan yard, a helping hand.

A 125/1 second to Chaldean in the 2023 Guineas, and a subsequent third in the Irish equivalent, he was still rated 114 when he started last season, and ran a cracker when third in the Earl Of Sefton first time up.

He has shown little since but he can now start his 2025 campaign off a mark of only 102, and his record when fresh makes him of serious interest here.

This is not a race to be bullish about but the general 8s looks fair (as ever, the best prices got trimmed on Thursday – in his case, the 9s). I will have a very small bet on him.

2.55pm Newmarket – Soft spot not enough for me to back 9/1 Clarendon House in very tricky race

If Steph Hollinshead was looking for some cheap black type for her 6yo mare Pepsi Cat then she is bang out of luck.

Perhaps she just wanted the badges for the owners…

Take the mare out of the equation, and only 6lb splits the other 10 runners on official figures, so we are basically dealing with hassle in running separating them all over this 5f trip.

I’m not going to bullshit you. I wouldn’t dream of having a bet in this, though I do have a soft spot for Clarendon House (when he comes out on terms) and I accept No Half Measures is the right favourite at 4s.

By the way, the firms betting 3s, 7/2, 11/2, 6s, 6s, 6s and 7s, about the first seven in the betting, need to take a good look at themselves.

That’s a joke, four places or not.

BEST BET

Chic Colombine at [13/2] in 2pm Goodwood. Available with six firms.

(Have also backed Metallo each way in 2.20pm Newmarket; and Hi Royal at 8s)

NEWMARKET – updated 7.02am Saturday

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 7.4 Saturday 6am

Saturday morning course update: 1.5mm of rain since the Craven Meeting. Forecast: Dry with the odd sunny spell (16c.)

Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and 10mm applied on Monday. Further 15mm applied on Wednesday (I imagine we could get a further update here on Saturday)

Forecast: Dry and 17 degrees

Rails: Stands Side Course in use

Stalls: Centre

GOODWOOD – updated 8.24am Saturday

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: 7.4, Saturday 8.05am

Saturday morning course update/Weather: 15mm rain on 23rd Wednesday . A cooler day today (20C) with a bit of cloud cover at times.

Forecast: Dry and 21 degrees

Watering: Applied 5mm to the Field Side and 3mm to the bends last night.

Rails: All races to be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f & 6f Stands Side 1m3f & 1m4f Outside Rest Inside

THIRSK – updated 8.21am Saturday

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Going stick: None now given on BHA site (was 10.2 on Wednesday 4pm, when “the reading suggests the ground is faster than it actually is”)

Saturday  morning course update: Partly Cloudy. Cloudy with sunny spells and a moderate breeze, with an expected high of 14°C this afternoon

Forecast: Dry and 13 degrees

Watering: Watering to hold

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside 1M6F Start: Inside

FIRST TIME HEADGEAR STAT (interesting for the lack of…)

 Jack Channon blinkers 0-0 – Metallo, 2.20pm Newmarket

Mick Channon also used blinkers sparingly (0-4 since 2011 to retirement)

PACE MAPS (manually done)

1.45pm Newmarket: Lethal Levi, Woodhay Wonder, Orne (prom), Inishfallen, Run Boy Run (prom) Aramram (prom), Silky Wilkie, Aberama Gold (prom)

2pm Goodwood (??): Sirona?, Bright Thunder (prom)

2.20pm Newmarket: Hand Of God?, Approval, Urban Sprawl

2.35pm Thirsk: Northern Express, Flight Plan, Hi Royal (prom), Penzance, Our Havana, Cruyff Turn, Redarna

2.55pm Newmarket: Democracy Dilemma, No Half Measures (prom), Rumstar (prom), Washington Heights, Beautiful Diamond (prom), She’s Quality, Tropical Storm

3.35pm Newmarket: Benevento, Expanded  (prom), Green Impact, Seagulls Eleven, Shadow Of Light (prom), Wimbledon Hawkeye

TRAINERFORM (manually done)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, William Haggas, David Menuisier, Richard Hughes, George Baker. Harry Charlton (very good), Julie Camacho (keeps on churning out the winners), Roger Varian, Jonathan Portman, Kevin Ryan, Tim Easterby (six winners in last two days going into Friday, and an 80-1 second), Aidan O’Brien, Hugo Palmer, Charlie Appleby, Tom Ward (winner on Friday)

Fair: Karl Burke, David O’Meara, Richard Hannon (edging towards moderate but a winner on Friday), George Boughey (borderline good), James Owen, Andrew Balding (treble on Friday), Jamie Osborne, Robert Cowell (probably good), Michael Dods (7-1 winner on Thursday), Mick Appleby (0-31 in April going into Wednesday’s racing, despite plenty running okay – so Big Mojo was a big winner for him in more ways than one on Wednesday), Roger Fell, Paul Attwater (no winners), Charles Hills, Dylan Cunha, Sir Mark Prescott, Steph Hollinshead, Raphael Freire, Joseph O’Brien (treble on Thursday, so probably good….), Richard Spencer, Charlie Johnston, Ralph Beckett (winner on Friday), Jack Channon (winner on Friday)

Moderate: Peter Chapple-Hyam (very small sample, so maybe harsh), Eve Johnson Houghton (much-needed winner at Goodwood on Friday, with a 2yo debutant). Brian Meehan, Clive Cox, Richard Fahey, Iain Jardine, Michael and David Easterby, Jack Davison (small sample), Jessie Harrington

Don’t know:  Dianne Sayer, Saeed Bin Suroor, Geoffrey Harker (probably fair)