By Tony Calvin - 30 October 2025
FAIR play to Wetherby and Ascot for watering heavily on what must have been incredibly thirsty ground – I thought the levels seemed excessive – but they made the right call, the way things panned out.
That still hasn’t stopped high-profile ground withdrawals this morning.
At Wetherby (where the going stick readings this morning are the easily the lowest this week), we have lost the favourite Protektorat in the Charlie Hall, and market leaders Don’t Mind If I Do and Go Dante in the 2m handicap hurdle at 3.30pm.
Choose A Copper is also out of the 1.15pm.
We may not have heard the last of the withdrawals there.
We haven’t – Dysart Enos is out lame, so the mares’ hurdle is now a match.
Wetherby is set to be dry all day.
At Ascot, where they had 10mm (there was thunder, lightning and massive, persistent downpours in the south, so they could have copped a lot more – it was torrential near me at 8pm and again through the night), it is actually still good, good to firm, on the hurdles course.
That ground must have been parched.
We are down to three in 1.15pm, with Old Gregorian being followed out of the door by Don’t Tell Su this morning.
And L’Eau du Sud and Boothill are out of the 2m handicap chase at 2.05pm. And they have now been followed by the favourite, Martator (swelling, not ground).
Again, we can maybe expect more NRs, though further rain is due in from 2pm onwards. No Ordinary Joe is out of the 3.10pm.
Down Royal morning details: ” Following 4mm of rain, Down Royal is yielding, good to yielding in places (Hurdle) & good to yielding, good in places (Chase). Dry forecast ”
No NRs as at 10.19am in the big one there.
But there are now with Spillane’s Tower and Stellar Story out.
A day of nons.
And then into 9/2…
With 27mm of watering since Tuesday – that seems a hell of a lot in such a short space of time – and rain forecast on Friday and Saturday, I’m not sure if anyone knows what to expect ground-wise in the next two days at Wetherby.
I fully understand why watering is necessary in an attempt to get decent field sizes – though maybe trainers simply don’t fancy racing on such artificially altered ground – but the levels of irrigation that has gone on here, on ground that was classed as on the slow side on Monday morning, seem excessive to my way of thinking.
Catch 22 maybe, and certainly no-one envies the juggling acts that clerks have to perform, but we will see (the going stick readings were not updated on Thursday, but we have been promised them on Friday morning).
Yr.no currently has rain arriving at Wetherby at 11pm on Thursday, with more to come (but not a lot) on Friday and Saturday (see below).
They had 1.5mm of rain overnight, and the going stick readings this morning are 5.3 on hurdles course and 5.5 on chase track (they were 6.7 and 6.6 on Monday, when the ground was described as exactly the same as it is now – on the slow side of good).
But Friday’s times will tell us more.
This 0-125 2m3f handicap chase wasn’t originally on ITV’s schedule, hence there was no ante-post betting on the race (though I suspect all ante-post betting this week was minimal), but the prices for this contest started to appear around 1pm on Thursday and Lightning Flash soon emerged as the dominant favourite, ranging between [11/8] and [13/8], with a bit of [15/8] having just come up.
It looks a deeper race than that to me, but I can’t see a bet screaming to be had here at the current odds, though I could fully see why the early 12s and 10s about Strong Foundations was quickly snapped up.
Runner-up in his only point in February 2023 (the first and third are now rated 134 and 139, with the fourth on 128), Strong Foundations showed enough over hurdles to suggest his opening handicap mark of 105 over fences is exploitable and the stable are having a fair 2025-26 season to date.
He is now top at [6/1], though.
That 12s to 10s to 7s move with one bookmaking outfit took three to four minutes, according to Oddschecker, which was followed by a reduction to [9/2] with them 22 minutes later.
Modern-day bookmaking summed up, perhaps.
Early moves for pennies – and definitely not a gamble.
Choose A Copper NR (6.27am abscess).
8.30am morning betting update: Strong Foundations is into [9/2] best now, with Pep Talking the other early mover.
As big as a stand-out 16s yesterday morning with one group (three firms), and 12s and shorter elsewhere, he is now into 5s tops. And the money was understandable.
I am not rushing this race out to nick an early price either, but I thought an early look at the Ascot ground situation would be helpful for punters too, with the 1.30pm race as a basis.
As readers of the ante-post column would know, this race was always going to cut up, and 12 duly became five at the overnight stage.
And it was only five after Old Gregorian was confirmed very close to the 10am deadline (£606 for finishing last of five, after all) – only to be taken out at 10.39am (going) on Friday morning.
We are down to a win-only four.
It was apparently very quick at Ascot at the start of the week (good, good to firm in places), so they stuck on 7mm on Monday.
And followed it up with a heftier 10mm today (Thursday).
Understandable perhaps, but the issue is yr.no (and sites like windy.com are saying roughly the same thing, if others less so) are currently predicting around 8mm on both Friday and Saturday.
Watering heavily into a wet forecast sounds a fair gamble to me.
I have no idea what ground to expect at Ascot on Saturday, to be honest (the going stick readings were not updated here either on Thursday).
They have had 2.2mm of rain since midnight as at 7am on Friday, with more to come from 10am onwards.
Surprisingly, the ground hasn’t changed for the watering or rain, as of Friday morning, so the grass must have been very thirsty.
The forecast rain will be welcomed by the track then.
The going stick readings have still not been updated from Wednesday afternoon (as of 2.30pm Friday).
As for this five-runner (now three) 2m3f novices’ handicap chase itself, I have no strong opinion other than the early [9/2] and 4s about Viroflay looked big enough (as of 7am Friday morning, there is still one spot of 4s and a general [7/2]).
Don’t Tell Su is a NR (7.15am – going).
8.30am morning betting update: Viroflay, 8s on Monday, is now into [6/5] with the nons. But strong enough all the same.
I suspect a fair bit of reasoning behind Wetherby’s decision to water so heavily was to attract Golden Ace to this mares’ hurdle, after trainer Jeremy Scott’s perhaps not-too-subtle comments about his Champion Hurdler needing good to soft ground in order to run.
I’ve paraphrased that, slightly.
I suspect good to soft could indeed be the prevailing ground conditions (Friday’s racing will tell us more, obviously) and she probably deserves quotes of between [1/2] in a place, and [4/9] and [2/5] elsewhere, for this three-runner race.
But it is not as if she is a shoo-in under a 6lb penalty first time up – she needed it on her Ascot reappearance last November – and, for all she won the big one in March, she is only rated 152.
The problem is the two taking her on are easy to pick holes in, too.
Kateira has a 4lb penalty and was beaten 19 lengths as an [11/4] chance in this race in 2023 and was chinned at [8/11] in the mares’ hurdle on this card last season, and is she really a two-miler?
Dysart Enos failed to build on her Greatwood Hurdle third last season but that hasn’t stopped the 7s and [13/2] being taken about her.
Granted, she ran okay when fourth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle but her three efforts after a break in the summer have been moderate.
Maybe a first-time tongue-tie here hints they may have identified a problem for a horse that promised so much in the 2023-24 campaign, but even quotes of [6/1], which could be coming under pressure on Friday morning anyway, in what could be a very tactical race – there is no obvious pace in here but perhaps she will go on – aren’t overly-attractive to me.
That said, would any of the three results surprise you here?
Make that two – Dysart Enos is out lame.
8.30am morning betting update: It’s [4/9] Golden Ace versus [2/1] Kateira if you shop around.
First things first, Sans Bruit could get an uncontested lead here.
Last year’s 1-2, Martator and Issar d’Airy, may be the starting point for many in here, but this is a very competitive handicap, as you’d hope would be the case for a 100k pot.
I won’t be having a bet of any note in this, but General Medrano at 10s may be the premier play if you want to get involved.
Emma Lavelle continues in cracking form and her horse has a good record when fresh.
He won first time up in 2023 and finished an excellent 1 ¼ length second on her reappearance at Haydock to a horse now rated 16lb higher.
General Medrano himself shot up to a mark of 143 after bolting up at Newbury next time and running well in defeat thereafter, but the handicapper has lopped off 3lb for Cheltenham and Aintree Festival defeats and fresh could be the time to catch him again here.
The 10s is fair enough, if you a minor investment.
Boothill and L’Eau Du Sud are NRs (going), and they have been followed by Martator. Big Rule 4s.
8.30am morning betting update: Market is just reforming after Martator is the latest to come out (swelling), so difficult to ascertain any moves of note.
General Medrano, whose chance is discussed above, is probably the strongest at the moment at [11/2] but nothing has moved much, in truth, with Sans Bruit, the likely pace-setter, the current fav at 4s.
My focus was firmly on the two outsiders in this, Winter Fog and Doddiethegreat, and I was very much against the top two in the betting.
I fully accept Strong Leader is the one to beat but he can throw in a shocker and carries a 6lb penalty and the general [13/8] are definitely walkaway odds.
The 6yo Potters Charm has obvious upside but he priced accordingly at a general [2/1] and he does have his 3m stamina to prove.
Take No Chances, winner of the mares’ hurdle on this card last season, is not exactly Mrs Consistency but she is a more appealing price at [9/2] (the early 6s on Thursday soon went, followed by the 5s), as the step back up to 3m could be a positive.
Her record at and around 3m in the past is very good, but she does carry a 6lb penalty.
The race-fit Winter Fog is hard to read as well, but I think he is overpriced at [15/2] and 7s for a horse who is only 1lb shy of Strong Leader at these weights. The step back up to 3m could suit him too, as he ran well over it at Punchestown in May.
However, my main bet in the race is Doddiethegreat, for all he is the worst in here at the weights, as the lowest-rated in the field, carrying a 4lb penalty.
He basically has a stone to find to win this if the others run to their best. Making a case for him isn’t easy then, but I’ll have a stab at 11s or 10s.
In fact, wrong tense as I have had a decent one.
Simply put, I think he is the coming force out of this quintet, for all he is a 9yo.
He had a superb record when fresh before making his reappearance over fences at Kempton last November. The chasing experience was quickly ditched, and he then went on to be pulled up on his next two hurdle starts (the first of those was a throw-out run though after he was badly hampered at the start).
But a combination of a step up to 3m and the application of cheekpieces (and a tongue-tie on his last two outings) really saw his form take off last season, following up his Pertemps win over stablemate Jeriko Du Reponet with a second to the same horse off a 7lb higher mark at Punchestown in May.
If he carries on that career trajectory here, he is no [12/1] outsider against beatable horses.
Well, he is, but you know what I mean.
The vibes about him seem positive enough going into the new campaign – that record when fresh is a big positive, and apparently he is straight enough for this big test, having had a racecourse gallop at Newbury on Monday (we will soon see if he isn’t)– and it is not out of the realms of possibility that he could develop into a Grade 1 contender in a weak staying division, for all he is currently rated a mere 142.
He isn’t quoted anywhere for the Stayers’ Hurdle in March (Christ, even I am at it now) but that could all change after this.
I am not sure what going we can expect at Wetherby after 27mm of watering since Tuesday, with rain due, but he seems adaptable enough as regards the ground, though apparently the trainer does not want it quick for him.
The Nicky Henderson yard is just getting going, and they haven’t had many runners, but at least they had an evens poke win on the Flat at Wolverhampton recently.
Hopefully, they are about to kick on over jumps now, starting here.
I think he rates the bet of another quiet punting day for me at 11s and 10s, with an each-way investment on Ooh Betty my only other punt of note.
8.30am morning betting update: Not a great deal happening here, though Potters Charm has assumed favouritism. The betting in the last five minutes will be interesting; it will probably identify the front-runner.
I may as well get an early mention in on Down Royal too, to outline the current ground and weather situation there.
It looks rough as a badger’s arse.
Envoi Allen and Spillane’s Tower (that one won’t mind the rain) head the betting at 2s and [5/2] respectively for the seven-runner 3m Champion Chase, and the watering can has definitely not been needed here.
The latest HRI ground update reads as follows: “Good to yielding (Hurdle) & good, good to yielding in places (Chase). Yellow wind warning from 1pm to 11pm & 16-18mm (approx) of rain today & further 5-6mm (approx) tomorrow.”
Mother Nature definitely holds sway here then.
Maybe that is how it should be – and at the moment she is saying soft-cum-heavy by Saturday afternoon (see below).
This race looks pretty tasty and many will be cheering on the old boy, the 11yo Envoi Allen, to notch up his third win in this race, but this Grade 1 has depth, not least from Spillane’s Tower.
And when I was doing the pace map, I thought Gordon Elliott had a stranglehold on the probable speed with his three runners, and therefore would have a good idea of how he wants to play this tactics-wise (though Western Fold may be pulled out if it does get very testing).
A race to watch from my point of view, as is all the action from Del Mar.
8.30am morning betting update:
The top two are weak, with Spillane’s Tower (11/4) and Envoi Allen (3s) drifting a touch early doors.
Found A Fifty and Western Fold have been clipped into [9/2] and [4/1] respectively.
There have been nibbles for Affordale Fury into 9s.
NRs are now Spillane’s Tower and Stellar Story, so we are down to five.
We are down to six from 10 in the Charlie Hall, but it is arguably a much harder betting puzzle to solve now, with the each-way option taken out of service.
The Real Whacker was backed from 12s to 7s earlier in the week (and as low as 5s in places) – I had a tiny bet at 10s each way – but last year’s winner was probably more of an each-way play then with the three places on offer, and you’d probably have needed all three if you sided with him.
I am still not sure how his trainer still has his licence given his financial issues, but we’ll park that for now.
We don’t know if the first-time cheekpieces will be a positive or negative for the horse – the trainer’s record with this option is below (spoiler: it is not great, if a small sample) – and the potential burn-up here (see pace map below) may not be ideal for his run-style, too.
This is a race full of question marks.
How straight will form horse Protektorat be as a 10yo going on eleven?
How much will the watering have compromised Hewick’s chances?
Just how forward are Venetia’s horses, a la Djelo?
Will Pic D’Orhy stay 3m?
Can Ga Law post a career-best to win this?
Just how will the ground ride on Day Two of the meeting?
Too many ifs, buts and maybes for me – let’s just watch and find out the answers without a bet.
Protektorat is a NR (6.41am – going).
8.30am morning betting update: Djelo is now the [9/4] favourite, with 3s Hewick.
I had a very small bet on Washington at 6s on Tuesday , so I obviously wouldn’t quibble with the [11/2] on offer now as I think he is the most likely winner ahead of main market rival Alexei, but I have to have something on Ooh Betty now she comes here.
She was triple-entered earlier in the week, so I couldn’t touch her ante-post, but she looks a decent win proposition here at 9s. She may well get bigger, too.
I am playing win-only as she blew out three times, for all she wasn’t ridden optimally on two of those occasions (she needs to be ridden on the pace), and she may have had it for the season when disappointing in the Swinton at Haydock in May.
The handicapper didn’t even drop her 1lb for that run but I have no issue with her rating of 133, judged on her close third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle off a 1lb lower mark, and hopefully a wind op since Haydock is a big positive.
Indeed, as for her handicap mark, it looks exploitable on her third here to Take No Chances and Kargese in January.
She won first time out at Sandown last season and trainer Ben Clarke won with his only recent runner, under today’s 5lb claimer Toby Cain-Mitchell.
A fair few are talking the jockey up, and not surprising given he has ridden 10 winners at a strike rate of 23 per cent this season, with five of those successes coming in his last 11 rides, going into Friday’s racing.
I think they should make the running on her.
There is little pace in this, and I have backed her each way with an extra place.
Dance And Glance could have given the winner something to think about had he not flattened the second-last at Newton Abbot last time and he has a fair chance too, but the general [11/2] and 5s – [13/2] in a spot – looks about his price.
8.30am morning betting update: Indemnity is easily the strongest here – at the moment – into as short as [11/4] and 3s, having been double-figures on Thursday. Alexei is basically the same price, though.
IMPORTANT RECENT NON-RUNNER:
We are down to just seven in this now after Monaco Rules came out at 2.16pm
Takeit Easy looks a touch overpriced at 22s, for all he was beaten a long way when last of seven at Market Rasen on his return and meets plenty of horses six and five years his junior.
But there are positives.
Pam Sly won this race a couple of times with Fransham in 2019 and 2020, and Takeit Easy has won his only outing here, albeit back in 2021.
That recent Market Rasen return left a fair bit to be desired but it was his first start for 451 days, so we perhaps shouldn’t be too harsh.
It at least knocked 3lb off his handicap mark and he actually has winning form off 20lb higher, the aforementioned course win here in 2021.
He clearly had a significant problem to be off the track for so long and there are obvious doubts, but the 22s and 20s is a fair risk-to-reward win-only play.
Albeit a very small one.
Don’t Mind If I Do looks attractively weighted off 120, which is why Thursday’s [9/2] didn’t last long and he is now into 3s.
He is definitely the one to beat, especially with the Alan King stable in such good form.
Go Dante and Don’t Mind If I Do NR (6.48am – officially not eaten up, but I imagine it is ground-related, with the going good all week).
8.30am morning betting update: This market has been turned on its head with the top two in the betting out (they were as short as [15/8] and 3s with some firms) and now Pure Gold, Saligo Bay and Half A Chance could all go off favourite once the serious money arrives.
Saligo Bay the current 3s fav.
I thought this 3m handicap chase was exceptionally tricky for all that I accept that The Changing Man could have some mileage in his handicap mark on his return and is maybe an acceptable price at [7/2] to some.
But this looks a minefield and maybe they are using this as a stepping stone to the Coral Gold Cup at the end of November.
The [7/2] is not for me, then.
The most tempting price I saw on Thursday was Courtland at 20s each way with extra places, for all this 10yo is coming out of veterans’ company to contest this (it was actually 25s but that was taken).
But the veterans’ race he finished second in at Chepstow last time should not be underestimated.
The winner Hang In There was in the Charlie Hall at the five-day stage, and the third (Torn And Frayed) and fourth (Lord Accord) have come out and won since.
Maybe a stiff 3m around here could find him out but, off the same mark as Chepstow with a claimer taking off 5lb, I thought 25s and 22s was big enough if you wanted a small tickle each way.
8.30am morning betting update: No NRs in this at the moment .
Not a great deal happening, though I’d say Blow Your Wad (trainer has a good record with this first-time headgear) is easily the strongest as of this morning.
Good luck if you are betting on the Breeders’ Cup, but it is not for me these days.
I barely can keep up with domestic racing.
Dipping in and out of US racing once a year, and expecting to win, is perhaps a fanciful notion.
But if you have done your homework, and researched the US team in depth as well as the UK, Irish and French runners, then fair play.
It starts tomorrow night (Friday), with ITV coverage on three races to follow on Saturday evening (I’ll be watching US action, but the Ireland v New Zealand from Soldier Field at 8pm).
It sounds like firm ground at Del Mar,
Chase Course – Good (Going stick 5.5, Saturday 7.15am)
Hurdle Course – Good (Good to firm) (Going stick 5,7, Saturday 7.15am)
Soil Moisture 38%
Rails: The rail on the Hurdle course is positioned 10 to 12yds out from its innermost position around the whole track.
Saturday morning course update: 10mm rain recorded over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Saturday. 15mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. A generally dry day is forecast an odd shower is possible this afternoon. Estimated total rainfall from now through to racing on Saturday is 8 to 12mm. For access to our weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (yr.no latest): 3.6mm from 2pm (course seem to be saying a lot more, though)
Watering: Watering 10mm on Thursday. Watered 7mm on Monday
GOING – Good
Rails: All rails remain at their innermost lines.
GOING STICK: 5.0 Chase, 5.3 Hurdles, Saturday, 7.30am (lowest they have been all week – they were 6.6 and 6.7 on Monday)
Saturday morning course update: September: 102mm rain. October: 73mm rain (of which 38mm has fallen since the fixture on Weds 15th Oct). 1mm rain (inc. in the totals above) last Sunday. Dry, overcast and a stiff breeze on Monday on Tuesday. Further 1mm rain overnight into Wednesday (included above). Dry & overcast on Wednesday & Thursday with a light breeze. 1.5mm rain overnight into Friday (included above). Dry day on Friday, with a steady breeze. 1mm rain overnight into Saturday (included above) and a dry day forecast, with sunny spells.
Weather (yr.no latest) : Dry
Watering: 15mm water has been applied at the end of last week. 20mm irrigation cycle completed on Wednesday afternoon. An additional 5mm – 7mm has been applied to the home straight on Thursday.
1 November 8.05am – Following 4mm of rain, Down Royal is yielding, good to yielding in places (Hurdle) & good to yielding, good in places (Chase). Dry forecast
Weather (yr.no latest) : Dry
Harry Fry cheekpieces; High Fibre. 3.10pm Ascot; 5-27
Tom Lacey visor; Blow Your Wad, 3.45pm Ascot; 9-40
Patrick Neville cheekpieces; The Real Whacker, 2.57pm Wetherby; 0-8
1.15pm Wetherby: Ninth Loch, Top Target, Glen Cannel, Lightning Flash, Pep Talking – Choose A Copper NR
1.30pm Ascot: Viroflay, No Questions Asked, Lylian? – Don’t Tell Su NR
1.50pm Wetherby (now a match with Dysart Enos out)
2.05pm Ascot: Sans Bruit, Issar d’Airy? – Boothill and L’Eau Du Sud NRs
2.22pm Wetherby: Very hard to call as no obvious front-runner of late – Strong Leader has made the pace on a couple of occasions, so he looks the likeliest leader. Perhaps.
2.40pm Down Royal: Western Fold, Found A Fifty?, Stellar Story?
2.57pm Wetherby: Pic D’Orhy, The Real Whacker, Ga Law?, Hewick? – Protektorat NR
3.10pm Ascot (very little confirmed pace): Ooh Betty?, Dance And Glance?, Fasol? – No Ordinary Joe is a NR
3.30pm Wetherby: Max Of Stars, Half A Chance? – Don’t Mind If I Do and Go Dante NRs
3.45pm Ascot: Two For Gold, Henry’s Friend, The Changing Man, Bhaloo, Beachcomber, Neon Moon?
Excellent: Olly Murphy (superb), Harry Derham
Good or better: Henry De Bromhead, Fergal O’Brien, Paul Nicholls, Patrick Neville, Alan King (very good – and another 9-1 winner on Thursday), Sam England (very good), Harry Fry (small sample), Emma Lavelle, Anthony Honeyball (very good), Tom Lacey, Bailey and Nicholls
Fair: Noel Meade, Gordon Elliott (maybe nearer good for his number of runners), Greenall & Guerriero, Micky Hammond (12-1 winner on Friday), Russell and Scudamore, Nigel and Willy Twiston Davies (maybe nearer good), Billy Aphrahamian (33-1 winner), Samuel Drinkwater, Dan Skelton, Nicky Henderson, Willie Mullins, Jamie Snowden, Shark Hanlon, Ben Haslam (no winners though), Ben Pauling, Gary and Josh Moore, Jonjo and A J O’Neill, Killahena and McPherson (small sample – four runners, one winner), David Pipe, Mickey Bowen
Moderate: R K Watson (but small sample and horses running at massive prices), Parkinson and Smith (small sample), Lisa Harrison (small sample), Joe Tizzard, Faye Bramley (small sample and two seconds),
Don’t know: James Joseph Mangan, Laura Morgan, Jeremy Scott (small sample but three out of six placed), Venetia Williams, Ollie Pears, Jedd O’Keeffe (but modest enough in a small sample), Pam Sly, Ben Clarke (though one runner, one winner), Nigel Hawke, John O’Shea, Henry Oliver
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