SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE (4.55am) – Aintree low sun alert

I will update the goings as soon as the tracks do this morning, and I am just finalising the Aintree and Doncaster copy now (though I am odds-against to watch any race live today with Ireland v Japan, Scotland v New Zealand, England v Fiji and the France v South Africa blockbuster, all staggered games, means I will be sitting on my considerable arse watching TNT from around midday to 10pm).

I have added a few morning lines/updates in bold on the Wincanton races I covered yesterday; it’s a pretty sorry card, in truth, but Mother Nature has not been kind to the track and ITV viewers.

I really hope we don’t get any of this safe ground nonsense talk from connections though; how does that reflect on the trainers and owners running their horses?.

Anyway, back in a bit.

By the way, it looks to be a dry, mild and sunny day at all three ITV tracks – which means a low sun and omitted fences and hurdles alert at Aintree….

Those weather hits just keep on coming.

Saturday morning ground updates

Wincanton have been watering heavily, and also had 8mm of rain yesterday. They are good, good to firm in places.

Aintree is now good to soft on all courses.

Doncaster is now heavy after 2mm overnight (going stick reading of 4.3…).

12.55pm Aintree – Impose Toi 8s into 15/8 in last 24 hours

Pertemps madness

Watch out for the possibility of low sun and omitted obstacles at this meeting, then.

Newbury staging a Pertemps qualifier on Thursday has predictably hit numbers here, with only seven (first four qualify) for a race that could have taken 22.

That clash, which has happened for a while now, needs to change.

In fact, I have just seen there is another Pertemps qualifier at Kempton on Monday (which attracted just 12 entries at the five-day stage – and did well to get seven confirmations).

Madness.

This sport really doesn’t help itself.

Anyway, Impose Toi has been rather well found in the market at [15/8] now – he was as big as 8s on Friday morning, so I imagine a few tipsters rushed their column out early doors yesterday and the market has reacted (possibly over-reacted – we will see around 1245pm when the serious cash arrives) to very little money, so he surely can’t shorten much further – so you have to look elsewhere if you are new to that party.

The Lord Maid looks a fair alternative at 5s, but I’ll happily sit this one out.

1.10pm Wincanton – Struggling to see why Lord Baddesley is 10/1 here

You have to feel for Wincanton with the ground, and their resulting Saturday field sizes.

They have watered as much as they could but they still have not attracted an eight-runner field for any of their five ITV contests.

A seven-runner Badgers Beers is bad enough but that 70k Elite Hurdle is probably one of the worst Grade 2s I have ever seen, with Rubaud at [2/9] against three horses rated in the 120s.

That’s as poor as it gets.

Anyway, let’s have a look at this seven-runner handicap chase, which is undeniably tricky.

The pace map (see below) gives us few clues but I was very surprised one of the speed angles, Lord Baddesley, is as big as 10s following his runaway win at Newbury on Thursday.

Now, that was only a three-runner race but he did gag up by 18 lengths on his first start since having a wind op (which could explain the improved run), and I suspect the handicapper may be tempted to put him up by more than the 7lb penalty he carries here when re-assessing him next Tuesday.

That may be an over-reaction if he does – though he has been rated 7lb higher than this mark in the past – but Anthony Honeyball has his team in great order and he will be hoping for a better performance here from his horse than on this card last year, when he ran decidedly moderately in the Badger Beers.

Good ground suits and Timeform have him down as running a screamer on good to firm when second to Knappers Hill in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow in 2022.

The 10s in three places looks far too big win-only, and the 9s with an extra place (four firms) is probably even better for each-way players.

In fact, it is.

I imagine they will check him over on Saturday morning to see if he is A1 after Thursday, but he is surely too big at the above betting scenarios if allowed to take his chance.

If he doesn’t run, it is obviously money back.

He was the only bet on the Wincanton card that I could see on Friday morning, but he is pretty much 5s across the board on Saturday morning (and he was 6s within half an hour of the above copy going up on Friday) so that door has closed at the moment (I suspect he may drift back out).

Lord Baddesley is a NR as of 7.26am (swelling).

1.25pm Doncaster – 25/1 Vadream to roll back the years?

Some of the National Hunt fields are decimated because of the quick ground this weekend but there are no shortage of takers at Donny for the back-end slop.

It is now heavy after 2mm overnight and it’ll be like be quicksand once they open it up, and there are three races before the ITV action starts, so you’ll probably need a 7f horse in the conditions for this 6f Listed race.

It is a dry day at Doncaster too, so no fresh rain to help them slice/sluice through it.

There isn’t a lot of pace in here – Art Power and Stop The Cavalry, drawn 10 and 13 respectively – so I started this race looking for a strong stayer drawn close to that pair.

The [13/8] favourite, Group 1 winner Montassib, housed in nine, is the blindingly obvious candidate but it is against my religion to back shorties, not least in ground this bad, for all he relishes the mud.

On Friday, I thought the difference in price between him and Spycatcher, who was 7s in a place, was too big, for all Karl Burke’s horse is berthed in five and has a 5lb penalty.

But he took off like a rocket when smashing Navassa Island (perhaps an each-way player here at 33s from trap 11) by 4 ½ lengths in a Group 3 at Chantilly, in ground Timeform called soft, and comes here in premier nick.

But the 7s has become 5s and, in the final analysis I decided to sit this one out to any meaningful stakes.

The favourite could take a fair bit of whacking, I have already talked up the above Chantilly 1-2, and wouldn’t it be like Vadream to pop up at 25s.

One of her best efforts came over course and distance in this ground when winning the Cammidge Trophy in April 2023 and she didn’t run badly on good to firm at Newmarket last time, a race in which she got no run whatsoever until very late.

She shaped like a mare in fair enough form there, for all she was beaten 6 ½ lengths and admittedly wasn’t finishing off her race with any gusto close home.

It was quick ground, though; not ideal for her.

Charlie Fellowes could certainly do with a winner to end a very poor season (he has had just three winners on turf, believe it or not) and Vadream is actually my idea of the best bet in this at 25s.

She is only rated 93 these days but she was as high as 108 after that win here two years ago, and hopefully the 7yo still has some of that old fire in her belly.

I have had a small bet on her, and may look to play her without the favourite later, for all you have to respect the likes of Spycatcher and Apolllo One, too.

1.45pm Wincanton – 13/8 Jubilee Alpha to keep it in the Ditcheat family 

Paul Nicholls saddles two in order to win the race named in honour of his old landlord and mentor Paul Barber, as well as Richard Barber, who he credits as also having had a huge influence on his career.

Nicholls is obviously very keen to win it then, as he did last year and in 2018 (so he hasn’t exactly farmed this race) and his Jubilee Alpha is [13/8] to make it recent win number three.

She went up 10lb for winning a Listed mares’ novices’ hurdle at Cheltenham in April, so she has to cut it off top weight in handicap company here, and Nicholls did not hide the regard in which he holds her in a recent Racing Post interview.

But he did also mention that Wetherby last weekend would have come a bit too soon for her, so maybe this is just a starting point for her and she won’t be hard-fit here.

Either way, she is probably her price at [13/8] here, for all you wouldn’t be in the least surprised if she outclassed her six opponents.

Of the opposition, I can see why there has been a few nibbles for Lord Of Neymore, as a fairly handicapped course winner. Thursday’s [20/1] has become a general 12s. And now 10s early on Saturday morning.

And Emma Lavelle’s Bethpage was in rude health the last time we saw her in the spring and early summer.

2.05pm Aintree – 450k purchase Mambonumberfive to start earning his corn over fences 

This race was added to the ITV schedule earlier in the week – ITV love packing them in, which I bet their studious analysts love… – and I don’t have a betting opinion.

Mambonumberfive heads the betting at 3s, which doesn’t surprise.

There is some dispute as to exactly how much he cost from France – the official record says 450,000 euros – but someone paid a fair packet for him, whoever you listen to.

He is apparently a huge unit so everything he did over hurdles last season was a bonus etc etc blah blah, and he did pick up a weak Grade 2, to be fair.

Ben Pauling has his horses in very good form, and I imagine he will be hoping for a big run from this one, off a mark of 128 on his chasing debut.

Will size matter?

Ryan’s Rocket is a NR as at 7.20am (abscess).

2.23pm Wincanton – Cobra Queen could strike if the favourite isn’t foot-perfect

It will be disappointing if [8/11] chance Blueking D’Oroux can’t win this, for all his only serious market rival, 2s poke Cobra Queen, could put it up to him in this five-runner novices’ chase.

Paul Nicholls’ 6yo was rated 151 over hurdles after winning the Grade 2 Select Hurdle at Sandown in April – under a great ride from the front by Harry Cobden – and obviously a few people got their fingers burned when he was beaten at [2/9] on his chasing debut at Newton Abbot last month.

It’s fair to say he didn’t look a complete natural in going down by ¾ length there, but Nicholls would have put the hard schooling yards into the horse since then.

However, the more you look at Henry de Bromhead’s Cobra Queen’s CV the more you think she could give the favourite a race and maybe the two will come a lot closer together in the market at some point. She is getting her act together over fences, as evidenced by two successes.

And they have narrowed to [10/11] and [7/4] on Saturday morning, with money beginning to come for Breaking Cover and Rightsotom.

At 10.30am, Blueking D’Oroux is out to [11/8].

But is it a race you want to bet in?

Na.

2.40pm Aintree – Wanted a bit bigger than 8s Excello but he can go well

Thirteen shy of the maximum here, but a field of 17 is not to be sniffed at for a Grand Sefton.

It wouldn’t be a big betting race for me but I would have been half-interested in Excello had he not been as short as 8s.

The stable’s runners aren’t as hard-fit as those of Murphy, Derham and Skelton just yet and have tended to need the run but this one took part in that Newbury gallops morning around 12 days ago and he ran very well before taking the second-last home with him over these fences in the Topham last season.

I suspect he has a good handicap in him off 132, and this could be it, and I’ll chuck a few quid at him if he hits 10s anywhere.

It’s as competitive as you like, though.

2.55pm – Rubaud 2/9 for the hat-trick

As I said above, this is about the worst Grade 2 I have seen (a degree of recency bias, admittedly).

Even with his 6lb penalty, Rubaud will win his third successive Elite Hurdle if he stands up and comes home without a mishap, as quotes ranging from [2/9] to [2/11] tell you.

He made 200k at Chris Giles’ dispersal sale in July 2024 and that has proved to be a great buy given the paucity of 2m hurdlers in this country, with a Grade 2 Pendil Chase win thrown in for good measure (the novices’ chase division isn’t too flash either).

Unless he doesn’t finish or [13/2] chance Hamlet’s Night improves a stone and more, this is another £41k in the bank for connections.

He is now best at [2/13] to cop that 40-odd bags.

Pretty sad in a way, if not for Paul Nicholls, Harry Cobden and owner Brendan McManus.

3.10pm Doncaster – Is 13/8 Danielle too short, for all the positives?

Eighteen fillies going at it in bad ground, strung all across the track in this 1m2f Listed race, is not for me.

Danielle may be the highest filly in here but she is just a mere [13/8] chance; if any bookmaker can get her in the bag at that price and have 17 running for them at [8/13] then I’d say they have a very good bet on their hands.

Sure, she is the best horse, she has form in heavy and she finished second to Estrange in this race last season, but [13/8]?

No, thank you very much, for all that you can also add a good run in Group 1 company last time to the positives (actually that is a fair list of pluses now…).

Which of the 17 will beat her?

Not a clue.

3.30pm Wincanton – Look out for NRs

Just the seven in the Badgers Beers, as I mentioned above, and we could be on ground-watch here for non-runners, with Gustavian and Credo being confirmed for Sunday’s 30k veterans’ chase at Sandown by Anthony Honeyball.

That is only a six-runner race, but I suppose it is currently good, good to firm in places, on the Esher chase course too – though they put 10mm on on Friday to try to ease it – and that meeting has fared as badly as Wincanton with the field sizes (which includes a match in the novices’ chase).

There will be Rule 4s if either or both are NRs as Gustavian ranges from [7/2] to [9/2], and Credo from 7s to [17/2], but it sounds like both are set to run here. Plans change, though.

This is obviously a desperately disappointing turn-out for the 80k pot as it stands, and I won’t be having a bet.

Good luck if you are.

Back on Saturday morning with my assessment of the six races from Aintree and Doncaster.

I am finalising those now, but Soul Icon is the early nibble into 4s here.

3.45pm Doncaster – Maxi and Tiernan two tenner swings

The November Handicap is the eighth race on the card, so can you imagine how the ground will look here?

The course may well have to put down 23 rows of duckboards (a World War 1 reference, google it) for the horses to race on in lanes.

Any bet I have in this will be minimal, a big-field handicap puzzle, which I love, or not.

I quite liked Castle Cove (wears a first-time hood, see the stats below) until I clocked the price of [9/2] – that probably has to drift looking at the current, win-only (very illiquid, though) exchange price – and the one I am going chuck a tenner at win-only, and it will be a tenner, is Maxi King.

He is 2lb lower than when a fair eighth in this race last season, when he probably wasn’t ideally drawn in 21 (though double-figure draws have held sway in this race of late) and he has a big run in him if things fall right.

Granted, he is on a losing run of nine since winning at Newmarket in May 2024 and he looks a tricky sort these days, but I reckon 1m4f and deep ground are his ideal conditions, and this dual heavy ground winner has won here, too.

I also hope Rowan Scott plays him late, as well.

One thing is for sure and that is if he returns to the form of his fourth in the Mallard here two starts ago – a small field with no cover didn’t suit him at Newcastle last time – then he has a fair chance in this.

He is 1lb lower than that 2 ¼ length fourth in the Mallard over an extended 1m6f (which stretches his stamina) and while the first and third from that race haven’t run since, the second has (Beylerbeyi) and he gagged up in the Cesarewitch.

He will be my minimal-stakes swing here on the exchange at 25s+ (the fixed-odds 16s is a bit tight as I am backing him win-only).

I have also gone to the wallet to get another speculative tenner out for Tiernan.

We haven’t seen him since he was beaten at 5s-on at Hamilton in August (missed an intended start at Haydock the following month due to coughing) but he had previously excelled himself in good Listed company at that track.

He paid for it with a mark of 101 but he is clearly unexposed and the ex-Godolphin Dubawi gelding is interesting, racing on his deepest ground yet, with a first-time tongue-tie on.

His talented dam won on heavy and soft, and I see he is related to Litigant, who won this race in 2015, on the distaff side.

A half-interesting newsy line.

He is 33s.

Great Bedwyn is a NR as at 10.57am (not eaten up). 

 

SATURDAY’s DETAILS

DONCASTER (now heavy after 2mm overnight)

GOING – Heavy

Going stick: 4.3, Saturday 7.30am

Average Soil Moisture 54.6%

Rails: Fresh ground on the innermost line on the round course. No additional distances

Stalls: Straight – Far side Round – Inner

Saturday morning course update: 8.6mm rain during the week. 2mm rain overnight. Dry through the day with sunny spells and a gentle westerly breeze -14C

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry Saturday

 

WINCANTON (watered heavily – see below – and 8mm of rain on Friday)

GOING

Chase Course: Good (Good to Firm in places) (GSt 6.7 on Saturday 7.30am)

Hurdle Course Hurdle: Good (Good to Firm in places) (GSt 6.5 on Saturday 7.30am)

Rails: Innermost – Distances as advertised.

Saturday morning course update: 33.6mm of rainfall in the last 8 days. Including 8mm on Friday. Forecast dry Raceday, with sunny spells. Max temps 15C

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry Saturday

Watering: 40-50mm of irrigation applied to the whole track since Wednesday 29th October.

 

AINTREE (still no going stick readings update as at 10.25am)

GOING – Good to soft

National course: Good to soft

Going stick readings (updated 10am today)

MILDMAY Course

Hurdle: Good to Soft (GSt 5.3)

Chase: Good to Soft (GSt 5.3)

NATIONAL Course:  Good to Soft  (GSt 5.6)

Rails: All rail on Mildmay/Hurdle moved out 2yds. Hurdle 1 positioned as a cross flight, leaving two flights in the home straight.

BE WARNED: Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

Saturday morning course update: 7mm rain Sat, 2.2mm Sun, 5.2mm Mon, 5.4mm Tues, 6.2mm Wed, 0.2mm drizzle Sat morning. Forecast: Largely dry with periods of sunshine on Saturday, 13c.

Weather (yr.no latest): Dry Saturday, sunny periods

 

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these)

3.45pm Doncaster: Return To Dubai, Macari, In The Breeze, Lady La Fay, Gibside, Music Piece

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

 

Excellent: Sam Thomas, Alan King, Brian Ellison (small sample but four winners)

 

Good: Paul Nicholls, Dylan Cunha, Anthony Honeyball (very good), Henry De Bromhead, Olly Murphy, Ben Pauling (very good), Jamie Snowden, Jedd O’Keeffe, Karl Burke (very good), William Haggas, Ralph Beckett, Ed Bethell, John and Thady Gosden, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Harry Fry, Ian Williams, Michael Bell, Dan Skelton (treble at Exeter on Friday, and another at Hexham for good measure)

 

Fair: Joe Tizzard, Jane Williams, Warren Greatrex, Mickey Bowen. Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, David Pipe, Henry Daly (double on Thursday), Nicky Henderson, James Owen, Emma Lavelle, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies, Seamus Mullins, Fergal O’Brien, Faye Bramley, Sarah Humphrey, Greenall and Guerrerio, Alex Hales, Richard Hannon, James Fanshawe, Hugo Palmer, M D O’Callaghan, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Tom Ward, David O’Meara, Sir Mark Prescott, David Menuisier, Ivan Furtado, George Boughey, Iain Jardine, Jack Channon, Gary and Josh Moore, Richard Fahey, Russell and Scudamore (double on Friday)

 

Moderate: Mel Rowley, Ben Case, John McConnell (just won the Kelso opener at 5-4), Donald McCain (just won the second race at Kelso…), Tim Easterby, Ed Walker, Charlie Fellowes, Andrew Balding (moderate for him), Stella Barclay, Tom Dascombe

 

Don’t know: Venetia Williams (obv Djelo won Charlie Hall), Suzy Smith, Robbie Llewellyn (fair/moderate), Keiran Burke, Tom George, Sophie Leech, Charalambous and Clutterbuck, Kevin Ryan (9-2 winner on Friday though,  his first runner for a fortnight), Kevin Thomas Coleman, Saeed bin Suroor