TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s thoughts and fancies for York and Chester – and a morning betting update

1.50pm York – 11/2 Geryon to carry on the improvement

Naqeeb is a NR at 9.23am (not eaten up). No Rule 4

Expanded has also come out.

It really is fine to criticise a ride, as long as you keep the abuse in check.

And, doubly so if you have done your money.

I am not a fan of people who throw out the “pocket talk” line when others are having a rightful moan-up.

It means they are 10s-on not to be punters themselves.

Placing a bet gives you even more right to criticise in my book, as long as it is justified.

And if you thought Colin Keane didn’t give Geryon an optimal ride at Goodwood last time, then I make you right.

Don’t let me wrong Enceladus was a deserved winner and is a horse going places, and Keane’s ride was hardly a howler, but he made a mistake in not getting after his mount sooner there and giving Joseph O’Brien’s charge too much rope – he may have been momentarily checked, in his defence – and he is even better than he showed there.

And that was still an improved run by Geryon.

Keane may have been concerned about the 1m4f trip there and they step Geryon back a fair bit in trip here, and he is a seriously progressive horse who could well be up to taking care of this competitive Group 3 field.

He showed he had gears in his earlier 1m1f Leopardstown success, and it is just a matter of whether the price is right at a general 11/2, under a 3lb penalty, in a race that has depth.

I think that’s a marginal call, though the 11/2, four places, looks a decent each-way option if you can access that in a few places.

That’s the best bet I can see in here.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.28am): Geryon is into 7/2 (the last of the 4s went at 7.16am), which seems a bit extreme given he is trading at 5.8 on Betfair, while appreciating £200 makes him 4s there. Damysus is 10/3 tops (5.0 on Betfair) but the stable form may concern you there.

 

2.05pm Chester – Billy to thread the needle again here?

The Fingal Raven is a NR.

Chester have had 32.6mm of rain over the last five  days, so I am surprised it is good to soft, soft in places and not deeper.

Three horses were balloted out of this race (see below), so we have a full field of 14 for this 60k 7f127yd handicap.

A decent pot then – I am surprised Hugo Palmer doesn’t have a runner….

Billy Loughnane got rave reviews for his ride on Libertango at York on Wednesday, and rightly so – he does look Evander Holyfield – and he could need to thread the needle again here on Asuka from stall 12 of 14.

Profile-wise, his mount is the sexy one, a lightly-raced and well-bred improver (he is a half-brother to Boiling Point), so you can see why he is a general 3s, and 10/3 in a place.

But of course the draw presents a problem and this will be the easiest ground he has raced on, even if there is now a largely drying 24 hours or so until race-time.

He is up against largely exposed rivals so, with a fair wind, you suspect he will go very close.

Incidentally, Loughnane has stayed loyal to his trainers by riding at Chester (George Boughey, who has four on this card, and Charlie Appleby etc) rather than heading for the dizzier heights of York. He probably had no option and he does have a strong book of rides on the card.

Aqpan has chances at 16s, but hold on as he may get bigger

Aqpan was a little disappointing at Goodwood at the start of the month but that was his first outing off a break and after being gelded, and he got dropped 2lb for it. A mark of 97 looks okay on his Greenham run in April, and he is a decent enough price at 16s from trap two.

You may get bigger, too.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.12am): Rhoscolyn, 14s and 12s on Thursday, 9s on Friday, is into a mere 4s now. Asuka has also been trimmed into an ungenerous 11/4 (likely to drift I’d have said).

There will have been a small Rule 4 with The Fingal Raven coming out.

Even so, Whip Cracker and Yanifer has also been trimmed too, as has Aqpan (16s to 12s).

Plenty of shorteners, but none being pushed out.

 

 

2.25pm York – Into The Melrose Fray at 17/2

The handicapper was probably as nasty as he could have been to Into The Light on the back of his Goodwood win, but he could still hold some each-way punting mileage at 17/2 and 8/1 in this 17-runner 1m6f Melrose.

Well, nothing could about it; he does.

Remarkably, he is Charlie Appleby’s first runner of the week at York but he has his team in great form and Into The Light clearly thrived for the first-time cheekpieces when scooting in over 1m3f at Goodwood last time.

The problem is he was raised 8lb for that 1 3/4 length win and this handicap is much deeper.

But that Goodwood race wasn’t too bad and it was run in a good time.

The runner-up is a progressive horse in its own right, the third won next time (albeit a six-runner maiden at 0dds-on), the only horse to have come out of that race since.

And the step up to 1m6f could see Appleby’s Dubai colt in an even better light, as the son of a dam who won over an extended 1m7f in heavy ground in France .

He will do for me. He is [12.0] on Betfair as at 9.15am on Saturday.

 

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.31am): Not a great deal of movement here. Infraad is 3s, and Limestone 5s. Mythical Bay, from the all-conquering Balding yard, is the biggest shortener; 14s on Thursday and he is now 8s in a place.

 

2.40pm Chester – Vivian is a girl’s name, after all, Ade (one for The Young Ones fans) – the 14s looks big 

Loughnane’s By The Book and Lazy Griff dominate the betting for this eight-runner 1m6f+ Listed race, with 13/2 bar, and that makes sense, even if the latter carries a 3lb penalty.

This wouldn’t be for me at this stage as I don’t play this angle in eight-runner races this far out, but IF all they ran then Lady Vivian, well suited by some dig, would half-interest me each-way at 7s (I can’t believe she is now double the price at 14s on Saturday morning).

She is 3lb better off for the 2 3/4 lengths she was beaten by Lazy Griff last time and, the only course winner in the field, this race looks a good fit for the filly.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.16am): Lazy Griff is by far the strongest in here at this early stage and he is now best at just 13/8, from an opening 9/4.

I’ll be backing Lady Vivian each-way at a drifting 14s if no non-runners – but I’ll wait until near the off. She is three points bigger for pennies as at 8.57am.

 

3pm York – Cracking race, but one hell of a head-scratcher

Saturday’s racing at York is the best of the week in my opinion. Real deep, big, competitive fields and great betting mediums.

Mind you, this Group 7f 1 City Of York Stakes is one hell of a head-scratcher, and I can’t work it out at all.

Notable Speech is the obvious class act on his Lockinge win but if he is a smidgeon below his best again, then any number of these are snapping up at his heels.

I won’t be having a bet as it stands but I am fascinated to see how Puerto Rico goes in first-time cheekpieces, now presumably allowed to run his own race.

The ground will be drying out but it will still be easier than it was at Royal Ascot and Goodwood and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if this dual Group 1-winning juvenile, two from two over this 7f trip, outran his current fixed-odds price of 16s (a touch bigger win-only) now the leash is off.

But will I be betting on it?

Na.

I can see dangers in every nook and cranny here.

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.35am): Nothing much of note here. Notable Speech heads the market at 10/3 in a place.

 

3.35pm York – 12/1 Rock is in a hard place but he has good claims

Did I say the City Of York was hard to decipher?

Jesus Christ, I genuinely fancy at least six of these, and in those circumstances you normally have to Walk Away Renee.

So, do you here?

In common with a lot of people, I immediately thought “Ebor winner” when seeing Klassleader win here by the best part of 3 lengths over 1m4f in May, powering home after coming from near-last entering the straight.

It really was a hugely impressive win (I thought a subsequent 8lb rise was fully justified) and I imagined he was a good thing at Newmarket last time,  and simply had to go down and come back that day.

Thank god (carrying on the irreligious/blasphemous theme, sorry), I don’t bet at short prices, and generally tread very carefully when punting on the July course, as he ran a shocker here. But on slightly easier ground and away from that punting graveyard, he has the opportunity to confirm that initial promise in the small matter of a 500k pot.

I had a very small win-only bet him at [17.0] last week  – I just checked, and actually it was even smaller than I thought – when I saw the wet forecast  but, at 8s best, he is probably a borderline bet now. He could be a fragile sort too, and you may have to be teak-tough to prevail in this maximum field of 22.

As I said, I can see a number of credible challengers and, from a price perspective, Hopewell Rock is chief among them at 12s and 11s (and 14.0 on the exchange front – where I have backed him win-only).

He is officially 1lb well-in here under his 4lb penalty, gained when beating Small Fry, a clear-cut winner here earlier in the week, 3/4 length over this trip at Goodwood last time.

If the handicapper could have another go now, he may well have put him up by more than 5lb for that win, his first attempt at 1m6f,  a race in which general 7s chance Tarriance shaped well in fourth.

Unexposed at this trip, well handicapped and on the up, Hopewell Rock would be my number one pick, ahead of Klassleader at 8s (I’ve had a little each-way at that price) and Beylerbeyi at 14s (latter currently much bigger to pennies on Betfair).

And about 10 others….

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.38am): The unexposed Love Me Tender has been cut into 9/2, but note he is 6.8 on Betfair in quite a solid market for them. Klassleader is 13/2 but 9.4 there; bookmakers doing their pre-BOG thing here again, though Emit is bang on the exchange price at 13/2.

 

4.10pm – Familiarity breeds contempt – but I am doing it anyway

I got sprint handicap-lucky when Air Force One did me a 10/1 favour on Wednesday, and that has probably used up my good fortune in these types of races for the season – and, let’s be honest, they are a bit of a crap shoot rather than any particular shrewdness.

Air Force One actually turns out again here under a 5lb penalty.

And while I imagine he will go up by that amount for his midweek win (it really was a dominant performance, with the 5/1 joint favourites in second and third), my slight concern is that he is better over that 5f trip than the 6f here, though of course he is effective over the longer distance.

But at 15/2 best, and generally a point shorter, of course he can follow up.

They all can win.

And. most strikingly, Dance In The Storm down to 6f for the first time.

But 3s?

Lazy, I know …but step forward 40/1 Annaf yet again

Hands up, I may give Annaf yet another spin.

Familiarity breeds contempt and all that.

He was beaten only 3 lengths in the Group 1 City Of York Stakes last year and races off 98 here.

I backed him at 16s at Goodwood last time and he touched 110.0 pre-race before settling at a Betfair SP of 92.3 and an industry SP of 40/1.

I don’t know what the hell was going on there but he didn’t run badly to be beaten 4 lengths and he is 2lb lower here.

At 33s fixed-odds and no doubt much bigger in exchange-world (he is 60.0 there on Saturday morning – so he has drifted to 40s as a result), I’d be beside myself if he won and I didn’t.

I have backed him 33s each way, five places, and 28s, six places. And win-only too.

Well, when I said “I”…..

MORNING BETTING UPDATE (7.41am): Dance In The Storm now ranges from 9/4 to 11/4 – in a 20-runner sprint handicap. Wow.

He was 7s yesterday.

 

BEST BET (on one hugely competitive day of racing…)

 

Into The Light each way at 17/2 and 8/1 in 2.25pm at York (five out places out there if you can access but get best price-place combo your accounts allow)

 

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

YORK

GOING: Good to soft, good in places

Whole course terra spiked since last meeting

GOING STICK: 6.1, Sat 8.30am

Home Straight readings; Far Side – 6.1 Centre – 5.9; Stands Side – 6.0

Moisture Meter reading : 37%

Wind speed and direction at 2pm Saturday: Light Northerly headwind 3mph, gusting to 15mph

Rails: Planned rail positions from 9f to the entrance to the Home Straight: Thursday – 3m out from innermost. Friday – 6m out. Saturday – 10m out

Stalls: 5f, 6f and 1m4f – Centre. Remainder – Inside

SATURDAY COURSE UPDATE: A dry, cool day Friday and overnight – dry since 3pm Thursday. Recent rainfall of 5.8mm rain on Thursday, making 20.8mm since Sunday. Met Office forecast: Saturday – dry forecast, cloud cover in morning clearing to sunny intervals from lunchtime, 18 degrees. For live links to our Weather Station and the Met Office forecast, please visit www.yorkracecourse.co.uk and click through for Going Details on the home page

WATERING: No irrigation in the last 7 days.

Weather – dry

 

CHESTER

GOING: Good to soft

GOING STICK: 6.2, Saturday 7am

Rails: Rail will be out approximately 6 yards from 6f-1.5f and out 3 yards from 1.5f-6f.

Stalls: 1m2f – Outside. Remainder – Inside.

SATUURDAY COURSE UPDATE: 12mm rain over the last 48 hours. 32.6mm over last 6 days. Today is forecast to be mostly dry and bright with a low chance of a light shower around midday. Highs of 18’C with a 12mph North Westerly breeze through racing.

WATERING: Water applied over the weekend.

Weather –  Saturday dry, possibility of a shower

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back on these)

2.05pm Chester: Hungarian, Monoceros, Crazee Icon

3.35pm: Enemy, Dancing In Paris,  Duraji, Valedictory, Kirchner, Team Player, Westminster Moon, Goblet Of Fire, Sirius, Shadow Dance, Zanndabad, Alfred Boucher, Magico, Tribal Star, Majestic, Truth Be Told, Aqwaam, Alophonse Le Grande, Altareq, Oneforthegutter, Night Moon, Pole Star

4.10pm – Lakers, Toyotomi, Dark Cloud Rising, Purosangue, Bolo Neighs, Strike Red, Commanche Falls, Indian Run,  Topwarrior, Rappers Delight, Veblen Good, Manatee Mehmas, Musical Touch, Zoulu Chief, We Never Stop, Tricky Tel, Beaujolais Nouveau, Marcellinus, Fortification, Stanley Spencer

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces; Damysus, 1.50pm; 16-150 (since 2021)

Willie Mullins cheekpieces; Sharkeyboy, 2.25pm; 15-67 (2016)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Expanded, 1.50pm & Puerto Rico 3pm; 15-132 (2016)

Kevin Ryan cheekpieces; Henlein, 1.50pm Chester & Hammer The Hammer, 4.10pm York 16-185 (2016)

Ger Lyons cheekpieces; Poetic Sound, 3.35pm; 1-30 (2016)

Andrew Balding cheekpieces; Furthur, 3.35pm; 21-141 (2016)

 

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed) & NRs

 

1.50pm York : Archivist (drawn 9),  Point Lynas (4), Hankelow (11) – Naqeeb and Expanded are NRs

2.05pm Chester:  Asuka (12), Aqpan (2), Goldmoyne (3), Yanifer (7), Vixey? (6) – The Fingal Raven is a NR

2.25pm York: Limestone (6), Infraad (4), Mythical Bay (3), Who’s Lope (7)

2.40pm Chester: Lazy Griff (3),  Duraji (8), Fantasy World (5), Midak? (2), Lady Vivian (4), Orchard Keeper (6)

3pm York: Satono Reve (4), Lifeplan (14), Puerto Rico? (11), Paborus ? (13)

3.35pm York : Furthur (16), Spinning Wheel (24), Tarriance (12), Align The Stars (17),  Square Necker (23)

4.10pm York : Pocklington (10), Toca Madera (14), Flash Harry (17), Hammer The Hammer (18), Desert Falcon (8)

4.45pm York NRs: Undercover Affair

5.20pm York NRs: King’s Code

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed;  ITV races only)

 

Good: John and Thady Gosden (but, like Beckett, his York runners have underperformed – 25pc recent strike rate distorted by 1-6 and 1-3 winners), Ed Bethell, Robert Cowell (fair/good – small sample, and had been on a poor run), Richard and Peter Fahey,  Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett (disappointing at York this week but Starlust was second in Nunthorpe and had a winner at Salisbury on Friday evening),  George Scott, James Owen, Karl Burke,  Roger Varian,  Adrian Keatley (small sample), George Boughey (treble on Thursday),  Clive Cox (another winner at York on Friday),  Jennie Candlish (double on Thursday),  Willie Mullins, Charlie Appleby, Harry Charlton, Adrian McGuinness, Geoff Oldroyd (very small sample), Simon and Ed Crisford, Andrew Balding (four-timer at York on Thursday and another pair on Friday), William Haggas, Joseph O’Brien (a rather successful Thursday and Friday)

Fair: Ian Williams (fair/moderate), Jim Goldie (40-1 and 10-3 winners at Hamilton on Friday evening), Ed Walker, Richard Spencer, David O’Meara, Charlie Johnston, Hugo Palmer, Ben Haslam, Mick Appleby,  Michael and David Easterby, Richard Hughes, Stuart Williams, M Grassick, Ger Lyons, Dermot Weld,  Emmet Mullins, Brian Ellison, Declan Carroll, Robson De Aguiar, Eve Johnson Houghton, Alan King, Iain Jardine, Henry De Bromhead (double on Friday night), Jamie Osborne, Harriet Bethell (3-1 winner on Friday evening), David Evans, Kevin Phillipart De Foy,  Jonathan Portman (third in Nunthorpe though and a 7-2 winner at Salisbury last night),

Moderate:  Kevin Ryan,  Tim Easterby (fair/moderate), Richard Hannon, Rebecca Menzies, Julie Camacho (though a winner and a few placed horses)

Don’t know:  Dr Richard Newland,  Hamad Al Jehani, N Hori,  Tony Martin,  Simon West