By Tony Calvin - 17 November 2025
Haydock and Ascot haven’t updated yet today unsurprisingly, but maybe expect the ground to have eased at both tracks when they do.
Ascot watered 10mm yesterday (on good to soft, good in places, ground), and they have currently had 6mm of rain since midnight.
Haydock had 15mm yesterday, more than forecast. They have had another 1.6mm since midnight.
There are plenty of double entries in here: Nemean Lion, Florida Dreams, George’s Lad, Hardy Du Seuil, I Love My Baie. Jony R, Karafon, Kinbara Firstdraft, Lucky One and Milldam.
We have a strong favourite in here in Kabral Du Mathan, who ranges from 2s to [5/2], having joined Dan Skelton from Paul Nicholls.
He will need to improve to win this off 140 but the switch of stables is no negative – not that Nicholls did anything wrong with the horse, far from it – and maybe the step up in trip to 2m3f is the main positive here (dam won over 2m5f+ in heavy in France), as well as his excellent course form and the 5yo’s lightly-raced profile (this is just his seventh run over hurdles).
I can fully see the case for him being favourite, but even the [5/2] doesn’t look a massive bargain, for all this is his sole weekend option and this race could cut up (see double entries).
Actually, I probably wouldn’t be in a rush to lay the [5/2] myself, so ignore that.
Haydock have had an unexpected 15mm today as at 7pm (from midnight).
Hitman , Gidleigh Park, Jango Baie, The Jukebox Man and Heart Wood could go elsewhere this weekend, as per this race preview going live at 10.34am.
Heart Wood has been left in the John Durkan today (Tuesday).
I suppose the wisdom of having this 2m5f Grade 2 on the same day as a 50k Graduation race over the same trip at Haydock 20 minutes later (see below), not to mention the Betfair Chase and the 2m3f150yd John Durkan this weekend, is questionable.
But we are in an age where there are simply too many options for a declining horse population, particularly at the top end with little depth.
And maybe the likes of Three Card Brag will wait for the Coral Gold Cup a week on Saturday.
The double entries could partly explain why King George runner-up Il Est Francais and last year’s winner Pic D’orhy head the betting at 2s and [7/2] respectively – that and the fact they are the highest-rated horses in here, admittedly – but you’d like to know what they will be facing if rocking up themselves.
And 2s and [7/2] are the stand-out prices, as they are as short as [6/4] and [9/4] in some books.
It’s a big no from me at the moment.
I doubt that there will be any additions, but there is a supplementary stage, by midday on Wednesday, for this race, so it is possible something could be jettisoned in.
In an ideal world, connections of Grade 1 winning novices The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie would be rolling the big dice in the Betfair Chase – and maybe the 155-rated Gidleigh Park and the 152-rated Grand National fourth and Cheltenham Festival winner Iroko, too – but I guess you can see why some of those are set to ease their horses into the season more gently.
However, Iroko running in a graduation race (one in which he finished second in last season) after running in the big one at Aintree does seem a little silly, for all he is still only seven and has only a Warwick novices’ chase win to his name over fences.
Anyway, it’ll be a cracker if all four stand their ground, though this is only one of three possible engagements for Gidleigh Park, who ranges between 3s and 4s, on Saturday.
Actually, six of the 10 entries could go elsewhere this weekend – Classic Maestro, Gidleigh Park, Jango Baie, Mr Hope Street, Shomen Uchi and The Jukebox Man – and they obviously include The Jukebox Man and Jango Baie, the [13/8] and [9/4] market leaders.
It sounds like The Jukebox Man will run here – though trainers give themselves options for a reason – but why the hell would a bookmaker price this up? Plenty haven’t, including AKBets, and you can hardly blame them.
I suppose, by elimination, Iroko, last year’s runner-up, could be the most sensible bet at [7/2], but his stable are not in great form and is he going to be campaigned with Aintree in mind again?
Potentially a cracker of a race – and I hadn’t even mentioned Olly Murphy’s new recruit American Mike and Butch, as well as Knappers Hill – but who is going to turn up?
I’ve no idea.
Punchestown have just tweeted that nine have been confirmed today, and they surprisingly include William Munny, thought to be a no-show (and maybe he still will be – but it sounds like he was left in, in error).
Salvator Mundi was taken out of the race, so Willie only has five of the nine now.
Not a race you can bet in with any confidence at all.
Or indeed bet on, if you are a bookmaker.
All bar William Munny have options on Nov 29/30 should they want to wait.
This used to be a great race when it was run over the fixed brush hurdles, but it is still a cracking 100k 3m handicap hurdle, and one that has attracted 23 entries at the five-day stage.
And not too many double entries. They are: Jingko Blue, Florida Dreams, I Love My Baie, Karafon and Don Virginia.
I’m not in the least surprised to see Ma Shantou at the top of the market at 4s as he bolted up at Cheltenham, but he is 9lb higher here and the stable’s form has dripped significantly in recent weeks after a great start to the season.
The obligatory Skelton horse near the head of the betting in a valuable handicap is Joyeux Machin at 6s, and his supporters at that price will be hoping his reappearance run over 2m3f at Chepstow was a tee-up job for this.
And it did look like it to be fair, with the step back up to this kind of trip an obvious plus, in addition to the 1lb he was dropped for thar Chepstow blow-away-the cobwebs run.
As with the stable’s Kabral Du Mathan, I can definitely see it, but 6s is probably a defensive over-reaction at this stage. The books just run scared of this outfit these days, and maybe justifiably so.
I know he is up to a mark of 145 now, but I couldn’t really work out why Harbour Lake was 33s in here (and a bit bigger win-only).
We last saw him winning over course and distance in May on good ground – and I do suspect a decent surface suits him best, so Tuesday’s rain was not great news – but he has form on soft if required (see the latest going and forecast below) .
He won at Aintree at this time last season off a break, after finishing third in the same May race here, and the 33s in three places looks far too big (after this went live, the 33s was cut quickly to 20s at 12.18pm and is now a general 25s).
I know he has a job on here off a career-high 145, and a 5lb rise for the neck win here in May was harsh enough, but even so.
I’ll have a little nibble, for all the 9yo is clearly vulnerable to a less exposed animal.
As with the 1.30pm, there is a supplementary stage by midday, Wednesday, for this race, so there is a possibility (however slight) that we could get an extra runner added in here.
As it is, Wodhooh heads the betting at a general 7/4 (as short as 13-8, with 15-8 in a place), and she is certainly the stand-out IF Gordon Elliott sends her over (if you fancy her, I’d personally wait until we see the Irish weekend entries before backing her – and she is still in the Hatton’s Grace on November 30, too – see update below).
She is most definitely the one to beat getting between 13lb and 4lb from her rivals – you’d fancy her off levels – and she’d take a fair bit of whacking if straight enough to reproduce her Martin Pipe win or her subsequent second to Lossiemouth at Aintree.
She is a 5yo mare going places,
UPDATE: However , that place may be Punchestown on Sunday as Elliott has put her in a mares’ listed hurdle there at 1.17pm (only eight entries).
I’d steer well clear of her ante-post at Ascot, then.
Bizarrely, the 2s was taken about her after this news was known.
It sounds like Elliott is bringing her to Ascot, but beware trainers with options.
Basically, I think this race is priced up correctly, with Grey Dawning [5/4] and [11/8], and Haiti Couleurs at [7/2].
I’ve no arguments with any of the prices – it’s not telling you anything other than the bleedin’ obvious but I do think one of those will win – so I’ll sit tight and see what the weather does.
More rain than expected could change things, I guess (and today’s 15mm so far was more than forecast).
Only Gidleigh Park holds other entries in this 100k 2m1f handicap, so the numbers could hold up at the overnight stage here.
For a 100k pot, they should do.
If they do, I reckon you could well get similar, and maybe better, prices on the day without the risk of your fancy being a non-runner. In addition, you will have a better handle on conditions, and possible pace map and headgear angles.
Not looked at this race, as it is new to the schedule. I don’t think it has been priced up yet, anyway.
We have three early-closers on Saturday.
On Monday morning, there were 16 in the 200k Betfair Chase at Haydock (3pm) – Grey Dawning is the [11/8] favourite – and 46 in the 100k Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (2.25pm).
We now have seven in the Betfair Chase. They are Grey Dawning, Haiti Couleurs, Handstands, Royal Pagaille, Stellar Story and Marsh Wren, with Hitman added in late.
There are 23 in the handicap hurdle.
At Ascot, there were 22 in the 100k 2m1f handicap chase at 3.15pm.
There were 13 confirmations here.
It is set to be lovely, sunny weather at Ascot all week, bar maybe a few showers on Wednesday (will they water maybe?) and Saturday (2,1mm) , but there are a few wet days forecast at Haydock, most notably on Tuesday (maybe 4.5mm more to come after 3.6mm up until midday today) and Saturday (6.1mm, downgraded from 11mm today).
I imagine ITV will be showing Punchestown’s Morgiana Hurdle at 2.10pm, but no firm details yet (ITV still haven’t updated their website, as of Tuesday morning). With the current ground and forecast (see below), it looks like being heavy.
There are currently 10 in the Morgiana (effectively nine, as the trainer has said William Munny will miss the race after suffering a small setback), with Willie Mullins responsible for six, even with State Man out.
We will know more on Tuesday afternoon about where the Mullins ball lands on the running roulette wheel, but one outfit (three firms) have live prices, and they make Anzadam their [4/5] favourite.
Quite why they are offering prices at their margins (4-5, 5-2, 3s, 6s, 6s, 7s, 10s, 12s, 20s), I will never know, and they’d probably fight rather shy (I originally wrote shit the bed but that would have been coarse…) if asked for a bet on Lossiemouth at 3s, anyway.
Just wait until tomorrow (not that I expect things to be that much clearer then, admittedly).
Actually, those odds above are generous, as another firm has gone up with [4/7], [11/4], [11/4], and another four at 7s and 8s!
Jesus, Mary and Joseph and the wee donkey.
By the way, bookmakers and punters should be aware that there is a supplementary stage by midday, Wednesday, for the 1.30pm and 2.40pm at Ascot.
Further to the above, they announced on Tuesday that they are putting 10mm on.
The going is currently good to soft, good in places.
Frost covers will be deployed on shaded areas and take offs and landings on Wednesday.
It’s quite chilly, after all.
Going: Good to soft. good in places
Going Stick: Chase: 4.0 (was 4.6 on Monday). Hurdle: 4.1 (readings may be affected by Vertdraining following the last meeting).
Soil moisture: 41%. Reading taken at 7.30am Wednesday
Wednesday morning course update: 3mm rain recorded overnight to 7.30am Wednesday morning (another 3mm since as at 10.50am). 14.6mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. Occasional showers are possible, today, Wednesday. Then colder temps are expected on Thursday and Friday, milder with showers possible for Saturday. Frost covers will be deployed on shaded areas and take offs and landings on Wednesday. For access to our weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather (latest yr.no forecast): 3.2mm Saturday; -2 overnight Thu/Fri.
Watering: Watered 10mm on Tuesday
GOING – Hurdle: Good to soft, soft in places; Chase: Good to soft, soft in places (16mm of rain hasn’t changed the going description on the chase track)
Going Stick 5.3 on Sat 9:00am (not updated since)
Soil moisture average 50%
Rails: One Fit Padded hurdles in use moving forward. Separate bends: Stables bend on innermost line, east bend out 10yds. Fences and hurdles are set on their outermost configuration in the back straight.
Wednesday morning course update: 27mm last Friday. Dry until 16mm Tuesday Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are cold and frosty and staying dry. Min -2°C. Up to 6mm from Friday overnight & Saturday. Temperatures 6°C.
Weather (yr.no latest): Dry til 4.9mm Saturday (-2 overnight Fri)
GOING: Soft to heavy
Course update, 18 November 8.13am – Following 3mm of rain overnight, Punchestown is soft to heavy. Mainly dry until Friday, unsettled thereafter.
Latest Yr.no Weather: 5mm Friday; 5mm Saturday; 10mm Sunday; -3 overnight Fri.
1.15pm Haydock: Nemean Lion, Florida Dreams, George’s Lad (due to run on Friday), Hardy Du Seuil (due to run on Friday), I Love My Baie. Jony R, Karafon, Kinbara Firstdraft, Lucky One (due to run on Friday), Milldam
1.30pm Ascot (there is a supplementary stage by midday, Wednesday) : Hitman , Gidleigh Park, Jango Baie, The Jukebox Man, Heart Wood
1.50pm Haydock: Classic Maestro, Gidleigh Park, Jango Baie, Mr Hope Street, Shomen Uchi, The Jukebox Man
2.10pm Punchestown?: Winter Fog
NB: All bar William Munny have options on Nov 29/30 should they want to wait
2.25pm Haydock: Jingko Blue, Florida Dreams, I Love My Baie, Karafon, Don Virginia
2.40pm Ascot (there is a supplementary stage by midday, Wednesday) : Winter Fog, Inner Success (due to run on Friday), Jingko Blue, Nemean Lion and Wodhooh
3pm Haydock: Hitman
3.15pm Ascot : Gidleigh Park
3.35pm Haydock: Shomen Uchi, Doctor Ken, Manothepeople, Rock My Way, Saladins Son, My Silver Lining
1.10pm Ayr – Cromwell adds a big question mark to the Ayr opener Classic Maestro…
1.50pm Newmarket – 14-runner 3yo 6f handicap sets the ITV ball rolling Reciprocated, Enricher and…
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