AK Latest, Horse Racing

By Tony Calvin - 8 May 2025

TONY CALVIN: PLENTY of double-figure pokes to consider at Ascot, Lingfield and Haydock on Saturday

With Saturday morning betting updates in here; courses are also in, too

1.15pm Lingfield – Oaks Trial in name only

At 9.50am on Thursday, Lingfield were looking at a walkover for this Oaks Trial.

Then, thankfully, Simon and Ed Crisford confirmed Harpischord and then Aidan O’Brien followed up with Giselle with about five minutes to go.

Lingfield have had problems

Lingfield say they weren’t effectively allowed to water in April – due to the Environment Agency, it seems – and they only passed a BHA inspection on Tuesday, to ensure the turf was fit and proper for racing, in order for this meeting to go ahead.

It is clear that some trainers have fought shy of running their horses in the circumstances, so it may have been a good idea for the clerk to tell everybody how much they have been watering.

They haven’t and we are left with the meaningless “watering to improve and maintain” line, unfortunately.

Perhaps the Environment Agency would have been up their arse if they had given us details, though.

Hopefully, ITV and Sky Sports Racing can ask the relevant questions of the clerk – as they should.

Giselle is predictably the red-hot favourite in this, at [1/3], even though she doesn’t have that much in hand of her two rivals for a horse so prohibitively priced.

Indeed, Love Talk is only 5lb shy of her on official ratings, albeit all her best form has come on soft or deeper and she wouldn’t strike you a guaranteed stayer at all on pedigree.

Harpischord stays but she is 12lb adrift of the favourite and this is obviously Frankel filly Gisellle’s race to lose.

But she does wear a first-time hood and she has to deal with the demands of Lingfield – plenty don’t – so good luck if you are tempted to buy money.

O’Brien’s recent record with first-time hoods ain’t great, by the way (see below).

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Giselle is now into [1/4], with Harpsichord at [11/2] and Love Talk at [9/1].

1.35pm Haydock – 14/1 Tapley to go one better than last year?

A full field of 17 for the Swinton – Olly Murphy’s Schmilsson was balloted out, so get your money back on that one – and they bet 7s the field on Thursday, which brought in the likes of Our Champ and Givemefive, who clearly both have strong claims.

The race also features Ooh Betty, who broke my heart when beaten a neck and a short-head in the Scottish Champion Hurdle, coming with a wet sail after hitting a flat spot between the last two. I was on at 33s ante-post and she would have won in another 10 yards.

Such are the margins involved in punting. She is another strong contender at 11s, as she only went up 1lb for that run.

As the betting suggests, this is a hugely competitive handicap but Tapley is a fair price at 14s, available with five firms, all of whom offer five places for each-way punters.

Sean Bowen would have ridden Schmilsson for Ollie Murphy had he got in, and he switches to Tapley (so it wasn’t a long-term plan for him to ride this horse), and I don’t think it is unkind to say he is a significant jockey upgrade from 7lb claimer Elizabeth Gale.

Gale rode the horse to finish a 15-length second to runaway winner Pickanumber (subsequently sold to America) off a 4lb higher mark than this in the race last season, doing well to take the runner-up spot having come from a long way off the pace.

But it’s fair to say Tapley will feel a stronger guiding force on him here.

Whether he is in the form to go one better than last year is questionable, as he hasn’t been pulling up any trees of late, but he ran his best race for a while when fifth at Hereford last time and this could be D-Day with the champion jockey in the plate for the first time.

It is worth remembering that he went up to a mark of 126 after winning for Gavin Sheehan at Plumpton in October 2024, and he can race off 117 here.

Of course, I’ll have to have a saver on Ooh Betty, too…

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44m: Important NR here, as Lanesborough, as short as 6s, was a NR at 7.36pm last night as cast in box. Very little happening in this market at the moment, but Tapley is into 10s now.

1.50pm Lingfield – 16/1 Party Island the pick of the prices

The biggest field for an ITV race at Lingfield, with nine runners for this 1m2f handicap. It is a very lowly 0-80 affair though, and it wouldn’t be high on my punting list even for a midweek fixture (not that I even look then).

That said, I wasn’t expecting the bottom weight, Party Island, to be a general 16s poke when the betting first popped up on Thursday.

He is getting on a bit at eight now and rated a mere 68 on turf, but he is a four-time winner here on the all-weather and he proved he can still do it on turf when winning at Sandown last summer.

That came off just a 1lb higher mark than this, and he comes into this race having run okay off marks in the mid-70s on the all-weather, so I think he is the bet in the race if you want one.

If you want it to sit it out, it would be very, very understandable, however.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Nibbles for Gincident into 5s, and Party Island is into 12s. Didn’t spot much else.

2.05pm Ascot – 5/2 Arisaig has an obvious chance if getting her share of luck this time

Everyone saw how much of a rancid run through Arisaig got at Goodwood last week, and she heads the betting at [5/2] here alongside the unexposed and well-related Rainbows Edge.

Actually, the latter edges favouritism at [9/4] at the moment.

I wouldn’t have a betting opinion on this six-runner race, and backing obviously unlucky horses is the route the poorhouse, especially when it comes to horses from this yard (as they are raced a lot and are not the most consistent as a result) but I can fully see the case for Arisaig.

She is clearly in good form and wasn’t beaten far when eighth in the Sandringham here last season.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: More life in a tramp’s vest than this market, though Arisaig is now fav at [2/1].

2.25pm Lingfield – It could be another Lingfield outsider with 12/1 Charlie’s Choice

A bitterly disappointing turnout of just five for a 45k 0-105 handicap (effectively a 77-96).

It is no surprise that the early betting has centred on Candyman Stan at [11/8], as he comes in here after bolting up at Brighton last month, and a 7lb rise may be manageable.

However, any of these could win this and, as it is usually the case, I was drawn most to the 12s outsider, Charlie’s Choice.

All his best form has come on various all-weather tracks, but he has run well on both turf starts here and he shaped well when nine of 16 (beaten under 4 lengths) in a better, valuable, far more competitive race than this on the sand here last time off a 1lb higher mark than this.

I’ve had a very small bet on him. The 12s is available in eight places (now drifted to 16s, so I have gone in again).

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Very little change.

2.40pm Ascot – The draw is a big worry for 14/1 Popmaster

I’ll cut straight to the chase here. Not least because I have a medical appointment early on Friday morning….

I am no fans of Trackers – they are the bookmakers’ friend, as they encourage one-eyed laziness in punters  – but I vowed at the very least to give Popmaster a serious look when he next ran after he was given a very tame ride when fifth at Newcastle last time.

Yes, I backed him there, and this may be harsh as his jockey had a wall of horses ahead of him on the rail, but I thought it was a ride that accepted the situation from an early stage, rather than him getting pro-active.

As it was, he finished off to really good effect to take fifth when the gaps finally came very late on and he actually got dropped 1lb for it.

He is now ridden by a 3lb claimer with some fair numbers attached to his name, and this Ascot regular has a plethora of great runs to his name at this course.

Indeed, he is a massive 11lb lower than when beaten just 2 ¼ lengths in this very race last season, so I am sure he is handicapped to win again.

I certainly do not like his draw in one, though – I hate extremes in handy big-field handicaps, because if you are in the wrong place you can run a blinder and finish eighth, and that could well be the case here looking at the pace map – but let’s hope he is the right place when it matters.

I have the pace in 19, 16, 14,13 and 10, so yes that draw in one worries me greatly.

For that reason, I am going to back him win-only at 16s+ on Betfair at a far more reduced level than I was expecting to.

The 16s about him was taken on the fixed-odds front on Thursday and he is now 14s best, but that draw could see him being taken on by the big layers on the exchange (those who are left) once they show their hands near the off.

It is not a stable I am a fan of, but Diligent Resdev is a fair alternative at 16s, though he is hardly ideally berthed in seven.

He ran a cracker on his Musselburgh return when headgear-less and the visor he wore when winning the Ayr Bronze Cup last September (Timeform called it good to firm there) is back on.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Looking at the exchange market (just £33k matched), the high-drawn horses are predictably dominating, with low-drawn horses like Popmaster very weak.

Qirat is the fixed-odds favourite at [11/2] but he is only fourth favourite at 9.4 on Betfair. I’m surprised he is running on this ground.

We have two NRs – No Retreat (Bruised Foot) and Mafnood (inflammation).

Roi De France is very strong at [9/2] as at 10.30am.

3pm Lingfield – 7/1 Rahiebb could get the run of the race from the front

A field of winners for this seven-runner Derby Trial but one of these is going to have to win this high, wide and handsome for connections to have Epsom on their minds next month.

Puppet Master, the mount of Ryan Moore, is the predictable [7/4] favourite after his fourth to stablemates Delacroix and Wednesday’s winner Lambourn in the Ballysax last time.

Then again, if Moore had got on the once-raced 2 ¼-length Leopardstown maiden winner, Stay True, then that one would be the jolly.

Aunties and uncles, I know.

Rahiebb could be the one to get an uncontested lead on the front after just being collared by Derby entry Opportunity at Haydock last time (he was giving the winner 6lb), and he would be my token choice at 7s.

But I won’t be having a bet.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Puppet Master is into [11/10], with stablemate Stay True out to [4/1]. You suspect the price of the favourite is going one way.

A pretty dead, static market as of now. Rahiebb is very weak on Betfair, and is 13.0.

As of 10.30am,. Puppet Master is into [4/5], with Stay True [9/2] and Rahiebb at 16s (I have had a nibble on the latter now at 18.0, and I’ll stick an in-running lay on him at around 3s).

3.15pm Ascot – 8/1 Mighty Bandit, four places, could be the each-way option

This looks an exceptionally trappy 1m4f handicap, and I doubt I’ll be having a bet, if truth be told.

But if my guard comes down, I imagine Mighty Bandit could be the one that gets a few quid at 8s each way, four places, with a few firms.

This horse is best known for costing 420,000 at that infamous dispersal sale in Ireland last February, after which he has done the square root of jack shit in three jumps starts.

But he has done pretty well on the Flat either side of those National Hunt efforts for the bang-in-form Warren Greatrex, including when fourth to Fireblade (he is 5lb better off with the winner here) on his first start after a wind op at Leicester last month.

Greatrex in good form

If he is straighter for that run, his first for 174 days, then he has a big run in him here.

Greatrex has won with five of his last nine runners, with the beaten quartet going off at 80s, 33s, 14s and 11/2.

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Last year’s winner Kotari is a NR (going), and 33s poke Vaynor came out at 8.26am.

Otherwise nothing much to report.

3.35pm Lingfield – How straight will 2/1 Cathedral be?

Another pot, in this case 90k, to have attracted a very small field, but there is plenty of pace in here.

This race doesn’t do it for me either as a betting proposition but Amo like to have their horses primed first time up, and I can fully see why Cathedral is the [2/1] favourite.

The only 3yo in here, getting a hefty 12lb from the older fillies, this 800,000 euros breeze-up purchase bolted up here on the all-weather on her debut before recording an excellent ½-length second in the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket, with Guineas runner-up Flight 3 ¼ lengths away in third.

But a word of warning.

In a recent Racing Post interview, her trainer said: “I took her out of the 1,000 Guineas last week as she needs a bit more time. She’s a talented filly and we need to look after her.”

So will she be cherry-ripe after all?

SATURDAY MORNING BETTING UPDATE 7.44am: Despite the trainer line in copy, Cathedral is strong – at the moment – at [11/8].

This is the Phoney War time of day, though.

 

GOING AND WEATHER – all updated Saturday morning

ASCOT (full watering details given)

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Goingstick: Stands side: 7.4, Centre: 7.5, Far side: 7.3. Round Course: 6.5 on Friday at 7.30am

Saturday morning course update: Dry for the past 7 days to Saturday morning. A dry warm day is forecast. Temp today expected to be 21c.

Watering: Watered 4mm on whole course Friday evening/night. Watered Straight course 10mm on Wednesday and 10mm on Monday and 10mm last Friday. Watered round course 5mm on Tuesday night, 3mm on each of last Thursday, Friday and Saturday nights.

Forecast: Dry and 21 degrees

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

 

LINGFIELD (no watering details given) – going has eased despite the weather, so I assume heavy watering

BHA Course Inspector has approved Turf Track as fit and safe for racing (Tuesday, I think)

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Latest average soil moisture reading = 46.7% (was 41.1)

Going stick – 7.6 Saturday 7am (was 7.9 Friday 8.30am)

Saturday morning course update: Sunny and light winds yesterday, 18C. Remained dry and breezy since Sunday. Lows of 0C overnight and a grass frost this morning. Forecast: Sunny and breezy today (22C).

Watering: No watering details given

This isn’t good enough

Watering History on BHA site

On Sat, 10 May 7:27am the watering status was Watered –

On Sun, 04 May 10:03am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering to improve and maintain.

Forecast: Dry and 22 degrees

Rails: Rail has been dolled out down the hill and there will be a cut away in place at the 2f for round course races. +4 yards to all round course races.

  • 1:15pm: Race distance is now +4y to 1m 2f 4y
  • 1:50pm: Race distance is now +4y to 1m 3f 137y
  • 2:25pm: Race distance is now +4y to 1m 3f 137y
  • 3:00pm: Race distance is now +4y to 1m 3f 137y

 

Stalls:1m3f – outside 1mf – inside Remainder – centre

 

HAYDOCK jumps (watering heavily – details given)

PUT 17MM ON HURDLES TRACK ON FRIDAY

Going: Good

Going stick – 7.6, Saturday 8am

Saturday morning course update: Dry and sunny with highs of 26°c last week. Warm and sunny/dry this week, increasing temperatures with max temperature 20°C today and 22°C on Saturday. Gentle breeze.

Watering: Wednesday 17mm: Hurdle Thursday 10mm Flat AM and 8mm Hurdle PM. Friday 17mm Hurdle.

Forecast: Dry and 21 degrees

 

BALLOTED-OUT HORSES IN ITV RACES (get your money back)

 

1.35pm Haydock: Schmilsson

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Aidan O’Brien hood 7-85 since 2016 – Giselle, 1.15pm Lingfield

 

Andrew Balding cheekpieces 14-103 since 2016 – Our ‘enery, 3pm Lingfield

 

Tom Lacey cheekpieces 9-40 since 2017 – Glory And Fortune, 1.35pm Haydock (very good record)

 

George Baker cheekpieces 5-47 since 2016  – Mafnood, 2.40pm Ascot

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.15pm Lingfield: Love Talk

1.35pm Haydock: Givemefive, Our Champ, Ooh Betty (prom), Welsh Charger, Bareback Jack, Dance And Glance

1.50pm Lingfield: Mostawaa, Mister Daydream, Gincident?, Dashinwhitesargent (prom)

2.05pm Ascot: Finsceal Luas, Bellarchi

2.25pm Lingfield: King’s Code, Vice President, Candymanstan

2.40pm Ascot: Ten Pounds, Myal (prom), Noodle Mission (prom), Metaverse

3pm Lingfield: Rahiebb

3.15pm Ascot: Houstonn, Calumet (prom), Fireblade, Mighty Bandit, Night Breeze (prom), Vaynor (prom)

3.35pm Lingfield: Fair Angelica, Spiritual, Ziggy’s Dream?, Cathedral (prom)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; with ITV runners today)

 

Good: Chris Gordon, Dan Skelton, Tom Lacey (very good – another winner on Friday), Alan King, Ed Walker, Harry Charlton (excellent), George Scott, George Baker, Anthony Charlton (very small sample), Archie Watson, Warren Greatrex (another winner on Friday), Gary and Josh Moore (winner on Friday), Donald McCain, Simon and Ed Crisford, Jack Channon, Aidan O’Brien (flying along), Julie Camacho

FairHarry Derham, Nicky Henderson, Ben Pauling, Anthony Honeyball, John and Thady Gosden, Charlie Johnston, Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Hannon, Steph Hollinshead, Stephen Horne, Dylan Cunha (winner on Friday), Brian Ellison, Jamie Osborne, Ralph Beckett (winner on Friday), Andrew Balding (winner on Friday), Marco Botti, Heather Main, Daniel and Claire Kubler, James Owen, Roger Varian, Hughie Morrison, Denis Coakley, Richard Hughes, David Simcock (needs a winner), Alice Haynes (14-1 dead-heat winner on Thursday night)

Moderate: Alastair Ralph, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (11-10 winner on Thursday), Evan Williams, Michael and David Easterby, David Menuisier, Muir and Grassick, Ben Brookhouse, Ian Williams, David Evans, Grant Tuer (winner on Friday), Charles Hills (a few hitting the bar so probably just a matter of time before he scores again)

Don’t know: Ben Clarke, Kerry Lee, Suzy Smith, Sophie Leech, Edward Smyth-Osborne (one runner, 33-1 winner on Friday – so may have to revise this one!), James Evans