By Tony Calvin - 28 April 2025
DUTY FIRST looks a decent each-way bet at [20/1], available with two firms – though they are the same bookmaking outfit, so when one price goes, the other may disappear at the same time – in Sunday’s 1,000 Guineas.
The field sizes look worryingly low for the ITV weekend races and the fillies’ classic has only attracted 15, but at least the 1,000 Guineas looks a decent each-way race, with Desert Flower dominating the betting at a best-priced evens.
And the supplemented, at a cost of 30k, Duty First looks a very fair 20s each-way poke (plenty of 16s beneath that).
You can obviously see the win-only price on the day being 20s+ but the place part of the bet looks particularly attractive.
Initially, I would have been one of many to dismiss the Group 1 worth of her 3 ¼-length win at 33s in the Fred Darling (the next five home were priced up at 40s, 14s, 80s, 40s and 125s, and it sounds like connections were looking at the Italian 1,000 for her beforehand) but she clearly was a dominant winner from Hey Boo (I wouldn’t lay her at 66s here) and the time was good (as was the ground).
And to put a shinier bow on it, the then 111-rated Shimmering (also in here, priced at 50s) was beaten 9 3/4 lengths in seventh.
I tend to nick all my speed figure analysis from others (if you can’t be good, be honest and namecheck) and one of my favourite Time Bandits, Graeme North, on the Sporting Life website, was very complimentary about her.
The extra furlong is a concern of sorts for this speedily-bred filly – and Sunday’s ground may well be the quickest she has run on – but you can’t fear too many in here outside of the unbeaten favourite Desert Flower and the 119-rated Lake Victoria (7-2 poke), who hasn’t had a smooth prep and is expected to improve plenty for the run if you believe the trainer – none of the rest of the Irish contingent are rated higher than 111, with Duty First on 109 – so the each-way play at 20s looks more than justified.
Of course, there are negatives (there always are at 20s), and she may not have been in love with the Newmarket track when third on soft ground in the Rockfel last September.
Red Letter is the 5s third favourite – it is 16s bar three – but, on the Nick Luck Daily podcast on Monday, Ger Lyons was worried about firm being anywhere in the going description on Sunday.
A none too subtle hint to the Newmarket clerk, methinks.
The current ground at Newmarket is good, good to firm in places, with 10mm being put on Monday.
And further good news for Ger is that they are watering to the tune of 15mm on Wednesday. That seems rather a lot, though it hasn’t stopped his filly being very weak in an admittedly very lightly-traded exchange market (12.5 to back and nothing on the lay side as at 10.49am on Wednesday).
That said, £100 quid at any price in that market makes her favourite.
Ehen I was doing the double entries, I clocked that Bedtime Story, Chantez and Merrily were also in a Group 3 Leopardstown early-closer on May 11, should connections wish to use that as a prep for the Irish 1,000 a fortnight later.
And it sounds like Exactly and Bedtime Story may be heading for the French Guineas on the same date (May 11) but I have seen nothing definitive there.
The 50s poke Janey Mackers is also in the Pretty Polly over 1m2f on the Sunday card at Newmarket.
There are a couple of complete unknowns in here in the once-raced winners Chantilly Lace and Elwateen (both have the potential, if not the form platform as yet, and represent stables I have a lot of time for), but Duty First appeals most outside of the top two.
Having had a look at the rest of the TV weekend races, I am happy to sit tight for now (not having a bet myself, so I can hardly flag up anything).
The 2,000 Guineas news from Tuesday morning is that then second favourite Twain is doubtful for the race after not scoping 100pc after his work, so Ballydoyle look set to rely on Expanded, who now ranges from 4s to 7s.
I’ll be back on Wednesday/Thursday with the analysis for Friday’s ITV races.
Good luck.
Going: Good
Going stick: 7.4, Tuesday 11am
Tuesday afternoon course update/weather: 1.5mm of rain since the Craven Meeting. Forecast: Wed / Thurs – Dry and warm with long spells of sunshine, max daytime temps of 25c. Fri – More cloud and feeling cooler (18c.)
Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and 10mm applied on Monday. Further 15mm to be applied on Wednesday.
Sat Rails: Stands Side Course in use
Sat Stalls: Centre
Forecast: Dry and warm, but maybe showers around from Thursday onwards
Going: Good
Good to Soft between 1m & 6f on the Round Course
Going stick: 7.1, Tuesday 8.20am
Tuesday morning course update/Weather: 15mm rain on Wednesday morning. Remaining dry, sunny and warm through to racing. Temperatures may reach 24C on Wednesday and Thursday.
Sat Rails: All races to be run on inner lines
Forecast: Dry and warm
Watering: Applying 5mm irrigation to the Straight (Tuesday); 7mm to round course on Wednesday.
Going: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick: N/A
Tuesday afternoon course update/weather: Sunny. Fair and warm outlook for Wed & Thu. Turning cooler on Friday for the weekend.
Watering: Watering to hold
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre Round Course: Inside 1M6F Start: Inside
Forecast: Dry
Going: Good to firm
Going stick: N/A
Tuesday morning course update/Weather: Only two amounts of rain have been received in recent weeks. These were 7mm on 19th April and 9mm on 23rd April.
Watering: Watered 8mm on Friday 25th. Watered 7mm on Monday 28th. The next intended watering is Thursday – likely to apply 8mm. Then likely again on Saturday, amount TBC.
Forecast: Dry and warm
Going: Good
Going stick: 6.8 Monday 9am
Tuesday morning course update/Weather: 3mm last 48 hours. Met Office Forecast. Tue – Sunny intervals. 20c. Wed -Sunny changing to partly cloudy by nighttime. . 22c. Thu – Sunny intervals. 20c. Fri – Sunny intervals. 16c. Sat – Sunny intervals changing to partly cloudy by nighttime. 17c. Sun – Sunny intervals changing to partly cloudy by nighttime. 15c.
Rails: Line 4 for races around the loop.
Stalls:1m5f, 1m4f, 1m3f, 5f & 6f Stand side. 1m1f &1m inside.
Forecast: Light showers midweek
1.45pm Newmarket: Woodhay Wonder, Orne, Billyjoh, Alzahir, Aberama Gold (4th of 7 at Wolverhampton on Monday)
2pm Goodwood: Arisaig, Chic Colombine
2.20pm Newmarket: Arisaig, Bopedro, Born Ruler, Dutch Decoy, Fox Legacy, Metallo, Promethean (6th of 10 at odds of 5/4 on Monday), Urban Sprawl, Valvano
2.35pm Thirsk: Aerion Power, Bopedro, Metallo, Mirsky, Obelix, Rhythm Master, Urban Sprawl
2.55pm Newmarket: Democracy Dilemma, Nighteyes, No Half Measures, Pepsi Cat, Vadream
3.35pm Newmarket (some may also be left in French Guineas): Cosmic Year (entered overnight on Friday)
1.45pm Newmarket: Janey Mackers
2pm Salisbury: Harry’s Girl, Lyrics Of Life, Moira Express, Slay Queen
2.20pm Newmarket: Ambiente Amigo (won at Nottingham on Tuesday), Chic Colombine
2.35pm Hamilton: Contacto, Destinado (entered overnight at Southwell on Thursday), Goodshow (in Chester Cup on May 9), Insanity, Kildare Legend, Knightswood, Knockbrex, Sax Appeal (a well-beaten 7th of 8 at Lingfield on Monday), Struth
2.55pm Newmarket: Wild Waves, True Legend (in Chester Cup on May 9), Struth, Knightswood, Contacto, Liam Swagger, (in Chester Cup on May 9), Blindedbythelights, Cavern Club (in Chester Cup on May 9)
3.35pm Newmarket (some of these are also in French Guineas on May 11): Janey Mackers (Bedtime Story, Chantez and Merrily are in Leopardstown early-closer on May 11)
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Punchestown Is Not In Dublin (0-2mins) Racing Review: UK & France…
2.10pm York – 20/1 Naqeeb has his first start for the in-form Julie Camacho The…
Horse Racing
Greyhounds
Darts
Football
Home