By Tony Calvin - 18 September 2025
We have a maximum field of 14 here (none were balloted out) and I was going to back two against the field, both of whom have dropped to winnable marks, to very small stakes, win-only.
But then I decided to cut one adrift after sleeping on it.
Both carry obvious downsides, hence my limited betting interest. In fact, it is clearly another very tricky punting weekend and I will be having very few bets.
Incidentally, have you seen the trend of some regularly tipping seven or eight (and more on occasions) horses in columns, no doubt to increase the boom possibility if one cops? Hardly, the stuff of responsible gambling, but each to their own, especially if they are backing them personally.
The shortest price of the aforementioned pair (though I didn’t mention their names…), at a general 7s (the 8s went yesterday) is Mr King, who was rated 91 after finishing a two-necks third in this race last season, and now rocks up off 81.
And it is not as if he has been running badly, either.
He finished a 1 ½-length third of 19 at York on his penultimate start and he then “enjoyed” a throw-out run at Haydock last month, when he enjoyed no room on the rail for the last two furlongs or so, never able to come off the Eric Idle/Billy Idol/insert your own rhyming slang.
A dastardly cynic may suggest Andrew Mullen, riding the horse for the first time there, wasn’t overly pro-active in trying to extricate the horse from the trouble but, either way, he gets another chance here and his mount is clearly handicapped to go very close.
However, the ground is a major doubt for him. Ayr started on good to soft, soft in places, on Friday but, two going changes later after minimal rain (1mm), it was changed to soft. And the slow times backed that up.
Mr King has a huge chance on decent ground – I’d make him a bet at 5s on that – but his record on soft is very poor, so I have to walk away at the current price.
If he drifts to double figures (which is not a million – in fact it could well be more than likely as of 8.30am), I may throw a few quid at him, on the risk-to-reward basis.
He has drifted to 16s and a fair few points bigger elsewhere win-only, as at 1pm, so I have taken my chances.
I have prepared myself to fail, though…a lot of times (more than I care to admit) I back horses that I don’t think will win but the price is simply too big to ignore.
Hi Royal hasn’t won since landing a 2yo novice at this meeting in 2022 but the 2023 Guineas runner-up (on soft ground) is down to a mark of just 98 now (his peak rating was 115 after the Classic performance) and I just wonder whether they will try to go forward on him here again, given the lack of pace.
I fully accept that his draw in 13 is not ideal though, and he didn’t pull up any trees at Ascot last time.
But that mark of 98 really winks at you, and that is 4lb lower than when an excellent ½-length second in the Thirsk Hunt Cup in May.
I’ve backed him to small sums at 20+win-only but the general 18s is okay (general 20s at 1pm).
A low-key betting start to the day, for sure, win or lose.
Connections of the form horse Montassib, winner of the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup last season, is said to need this on his belated reappearance but, then again, it is a matter of what price he needs to hit to lure you in on his first start over 5f.
He is certainly the best horse in the race on that Haydock success (which gives him 5lb and more in hand of these on official ratings, with the penalised Rumstar and Rage Of Bamby next up), and you wouldn’t want to be looking daft and poorer if he drifted to a double-figure price and you had directly laid him (effectively playing at 10s-on is not advisable, unless you are past-posting, as Robert Shaw said in The Sting).
However, you have to suspect this is a tee-up job for the Champions Sprint at Ascot next month.
That said, he is currently strong enough in the Phoney War that is the early market and [5/1] is the best on offer.
There were nibbles around for Cover Up on Thursday and Friday, with the 16s, 14s an 12s being taken (there was only one snippet of 11s available at midday on Friday and that disappeared at 12.05pm) and I could certainly see why.
The 10s and 9s and [17/2] followed suit this morning.
He took a little while to get his act together after being in Dubai from January to March and he impressed, albeit off a mark of just 97, at Ascot in July.
This is a step-up in grade then (though he finished third in Group 3 company in Meydan) and we haven’t seen him for two months, but he goes well when fresh and he won in a good time at Ascot.
But the general 8ss is probably his price now and this race has depth beyond the form horses, too.
I can sit on my hands.
The 60k Listed Doonside Cup has cut up to just six runners and the lesser-spotted Almeric has hardened into [6/4] from [7/4] in places on Friday morning.
An impressive winner of the Feilden Stakes in April, we haven’t seen him since, so he has presumably had a setback or two rather than that being a designed absence– they were talking about the Dante and the French Derby after that Newmarket win – but he clearly has the most potential of these, for all he carries a 3lb penalty here (as does Liberty Lane).
The ground looks to be fine for him.
This is actually a pretty tight-knit race on ratings, though – at these weights, King’s Gambit is actually the top dog here by 1lb – and I thought this was very tricky, harder than [11/8] would suggest anyway.
Certain Lad and Caviar Heights are the pace angles, but I was underwhelmed by the price of both at [13/2] and 7s best respectively, though admittedly they have both drifted a point since I wrote the initial draft.
Caviar Heights has been the shortener though, into [11/4].
A race to leave alone from my point of view but if you want an interest then Liberty Lane at [13/2] makes most appeal.
He has that 3lb penalty, as mentioned above, for his Goodwood Listed race win in May and has not run up to that level since, but he is three from four on soft ground and he is a big player here if he can reproduce his stunning Cambridgeshire win last season off a mark of 105. That was a Group 2 level of performance.
He is now into [15/2], and that has tempted me in, and Certain Lad is now 14s and bigger. I couldn’t let the latter go untouched at 16s+, either, to minimal coin.
Hopefully, I will be able to eat the value at 1.55pm, though Almeric is probably the food-denier.
No disrespect to Ian Williams, but the move of Alfred Boucher from him to the excellent Owen Burrows, has to be considered a significant trainer upgrade.
The problem is the horse has shown nothing in two starts since finishing a short-head second to Trawlerman in the 2022 Ebor and has presumably had all sorts of problems, being pulled up on his following start and then running poorly after a long break last summer.
On the plus side, he has joined Burrows and he is 8lb lower than for that York near-miss but you can see why he is a general 22s given the major doubts. I may have a throwaway tenner on him if he hits a sillier price (that said, the general 33s was taken across the board this morning – he was 40s on Thursday).
This is a very deep and competitive handicap and I don’t have any strong opinion to be honest, especially since Majestic Warrior is short enough at [4/1] at the top of the betting,
I can see very much see why he is favoured though, as he ran well in the Ebor last time and the slight step back down in trip is no negative.
He is also the only pace angle I can see in the race, so if Hector Crouch bounces him out from stall three then he could get an uncontested lead.
And, of course, the James Tate yard is in excellent nick, even if missing with his three darts on Friday.
William Haggas has two big runners in this in Dramatic Star and Castle Cove (who I can see appreciating the step up in trip), so punters have a lot of plausible contenders to choose from here.
Bon chance.
Castle Cove is a big mover (well, big early mover) into [10/3], with AKBets offering the best price around.
The Bronze Cup yesterday reaffirmed once again just how heartbreaking these sprint handicaps can be for punters.
I appreciate it is all swings and roundabouts – in that one person’s ill-fortune is another’s good luck – but if you backed Woven yesterday you would have felt mugged.
We are dealing with largely inconsistent/plotted-up horses in these races, fine margins due to luck in running and little time to recover afterwards, and that is before second-guessing where you want to be drawn on ground often not as described.
Apart from that, I absolutely adore 25-runner sprint handicaps….
If I have any bets on them today, they will be minimal win-only jobs.
My early two against the field when I first looked at this race on Friday morning were Candy and Silky Wilkie, but the early 14s about the former was soon chipped away throughout the day and he is a walkaway price at a mere 9s now (hands up, someone did oblige me to modest stakes at 14s yesterday morning but I shouldn’t mention that, legally….).
Candy did me a big, big favour when winning on soft ground at a big price at Redcar last season (he was as big as 40s there, again, mucho aftertime apologies….) and he shaped much better last time after a moderate spell of form, indicating he is ready to exploit an attractive mark, but a reduced single-figure price in this is not for me now.
He surely has to drift back out. If he does….
Silky Wilkie is a general 11s chance the (14s in a place was taken around 7am, with the 12s hoovered soon after) and he is another horse weighted to win at the moment, though whether he can beat all of his 24 rivals here is another question.
He ran well after a break last time and he is now 13lb lower than when second in this race last year, but that draw in one could be heaven or hell.
That’s all I have got sorry….you are pretty much on your own here.
AKBets are top price on the market leaders Nariko and Binhareer at 4s.
I think the early market has this right, with Defiance topping the betting at [7/2], with my other lean Amosh’her up at 6s and the way I may play this is to have a reverse forecast.
In fact, I will.
Defiance was a big eye-catcher on his first start for just under a year at Epsom in June and, although he has failed to make it into the winners’ enclosure on his last two starts and is 1lb higher here, he has clearly continued to run very well.
Back to 1m2f here, he has to go close with William Buick (who has a 27 per cent strike rate, from a fair sample, for the yard) on board.
Almosh’her is not as reliable, having not gone on from a strong York handicap win in May, but he got the better of himself at Royal Ascot when playing up beforehand and he shaped better than it would appear in the Ebor last time, his first start since being gelded.
The handicapper agreed with the Ebor promise, as he has to race off the same mark here despite being beaten 8 3/4 lengths, but he showed a lot of pace when winning over 1m4f in May and I like the attempt at 1m2f here.
In fact, even though I have two other pace angles in here (see below), I wouldn’t be surprised if Jamie Spencer went from the front on him.
Yes, I know….
The two for money have been Theory of Tides and Night Step, who are now just [11/2]. The former was 10s yesterday morning, but that soon began to be nibbled before the clock had struck 12.
You can see the case for both but the juice has clearly been squeezed now. I’ll do a reverse cast on my two, and a win-only play on both as they are currently very weak, with the money continuing for Theory Of Tides and Night Step.
In fact, Defiance and Almosh’her are [9/2] and [7/1] respectively as at 8.40am.
This is one deep and murky 6f Firth On The Clyde – from a betting point of view, it is more Fog On The Tyne (see what I did there?; good old Gazza) if you get my gist – and there is pace coming at you from all angles.
I won’t be having a bet but perhaps Argentine Tango is being a touch dismissed at 10s given her overall strength form in a grader.
However, she is clearly vulnerable to an improver and wide-margin Catterick winner Rogue Attraction certainly fits that bill.
As do a few others, including 5s chance Lightning Polka.
I am sure I have read/heard Hugh Taylor and Andrew Mount flag up Ed Walker’s excellent record second time up with his juveniles, so the fact this one won so well at Haydock on debut is an obvious pointer to her chances.
In fact, I have just noticed Walker’s Black Star Boy went from being beaten 9 ½ lengths on debut to win by 2 ¾ lengths at Newbury on his second start yesterday.
Ever alert, me.
She has drifted to 7s as at midday, including with AKBets, and she has continued to ebb away further. I have just got involved at 9s win-only myself, very small.
Now, this is the big question of the day – is Into The Sky as good as he looked here on his debut when winning by 7 ½ lengths in a fast time at [80/1]?
The evidence of the clock tells us we should be believers at a best-priced [9/4] – the [5/2] was taken on Friday morning – particularly as this is probably far from a vintage renewal of the Mill Reef.
That said, the recent roll call of winners in this race doesn’t exactly knock your eye out.
Anyway, back to the supplemented Into The Sky, who certainly caught everyone’s mince pies here last month.
Jim Boyle was apparently 0-156 with first-time-out juveniles before this son of Starman did the business here and, while the form hasn’t worked out too well – the second and third haven’t raced since but the fourth, fifth and sixth have been beaten since – it was all about the visuals and the time/sectionals with him, anyway.
But Newbury can be a strange track with wide-margin winners and we can all recall debut clock-blusters that didn’t go on, the most recent one that comes to mind being the 12-length Ripon winner Asadna in May 2023 (not seen again after the September of that year after four subsequent starts).
I haven’t got an overly-informed opinion, but well done to the owners for selling a share to Doreen Tabor (50 per cent it seems) and keeping the horse with Boyle, who hopefully can back this horse up successfully as well as being able to smell a Sunday Roast on a Wednesday.
I’ll be rooting for the horse but he does have a very serious form (and timefigure) rival in Gimcrack runner-up Rock On Thunder and Charlie Appleby relies on his Newmarket winner Words Of Truth (he beat Watcha Snoop, who won at Ascot next time, by 2 1/4 lengths and the runner-up re-opposes here) instead of Morny third Wise Approach, who would have been favourite for this race if confirmed on Thursday.
Watch out for a non-runner by the way, as we have the dangerous dead-eight for each-way punters.
I’ll be Team Boyle for a minute or so – unless I have a bet (which I may do, so read on). AKBets are now top on him at 3s.
I have gone up with this race on Friday morning (9.40am), but I’ll be keeping the rest of the analysis back for Saturday morning, so I may as well give a bit more depth to this race.
Incidentally, Words of Truth is [5/2] and Rock On Thunder is [7/2].
Outside of the top three, the aforementioned Watcha Snoop is next in the betting at 10s, and he did take it up a notch when winning at Ascot last time. The only horse to have come out of that five-runner race won at Chelmsford on Thursday.
It really will be disappointing if any of the others are good enough to win this Group 2, but one belatedly caught my eye.
Rydale Frosty is rated 96 after five starts and is just 16s, while Sands Of Spain is 20s, having had one more outing than him and could have raced in a nursery off 89.
The field is made up of two 33s pokes in Flying Comet and Gold Queen Kindly.
Now, the latter is rated just 83 and Karl Burke would really have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get his colt to win this. And I suppose it could be the owner that is insisting on running the horse here.
But Burke has had 50 juvenile winners at a strike rate of 29 per cent this season, so he has plenty to judge this one against – this horse is also in the Middle Park – and they presumably think he is a lot, lot better than he showed in defeat at Ripon last time when second of four.
This well-bred colt, by Lope De Vega out of the Lowther winner Queen Kindly, was sent off [1/2] when winning on his debut at Pontefract last month, after which this very race was namechecked as a possible target.
Maybe there was an excuse for his Ripon defeat last time, and that can be a tricky track for inexperienced youngsters anyway (by the way, the winner blew out next time at a short price but the well-held third bolted in off 80 in a nursery at Donny last week and went up 10lb for it) and, if there was, he is perhaps the most dangerous floater in this.
Well, he undoubtedly is.
Incidentally, Timeform called it good at Pontefract and good to firm at Ripon, so maybe this easier ground will suit him better. He looked to have a fair old knee action when getting up late at Ponty.
The current going is good to soft, soft, at Newbury, though the forecast is dry, warm and drying (see below). The times on Friday were still pretty slow, though (and even more so at Ayr)
I wouldn”t lay 16s myself, let alone the general 33s (available in 10 places as this goes live at 9.40am on Friday), as he has the pedigree and the potential, if not the form in the book (this is a 83-rated 2yo, so let’s be realistic here), to figure, so play the race as you see fit.
As of 8am on Saturday, he was best at 18s and as short as 12s.
This is obviously the big betting of the race of the day but similar comments apply to those I outlined when discussing the 2.25pm.
For what it is worth I thought Purosangue had an obvious chance on Friday morning, but his price has come down from 12s then to a general [13/2] now (the 9s in a place this morning predictably didn’t last and he is now favourite – see headgear stats for him below) and the extreme draw in two is again a question mark for me, and Jubilee Walk was the other to catch my eye at 16s this AM.
Not for long though, as that 16s quickly became 12s.
Jubilee Walk is 3lb well-in here, he has run to a consistent level this season, and I like his midfield draw, but the softening ground yesterday was perhaps not in his favour – he has never raced on soft and Timeform called it good for his improved Ascot run last time – and I am sitting this one out for now.
I am going to see how the ground rides at Ayr in the earlier races and perhaps do an update.
I’ll flag on X if I do.
With sprint handicaps to the fore, let’s be careful out there, as Sergeant Phil Esterhaus said on Hill Street Blues.
What a show that was.
GOING – Soft
Going stick: 6.8, Saturday 7.30am (was 6.8 Friday 7.30am)
Soil Moisture Average: 47% (from 55%)
Rails: Home Bend Out 7yds Stable Bend Inner Line
Stalls: 6f,5f,5f 110yds Centre 7f Outside Remainder Inside
Saturday morning course update: 1mm Past 24hr Sat: Dry Until Late In The Afternoon When Showers Possible, 16c
Weather: 3mm starting at 2pm/3pm
GOING – Round: Good to soft, soft in places; Straight: Good to soft
Going stick: 4.5, Saturday 6am (was 4.4, Friday 6am)
Soil moisture average = 56.3%
Rails: Fresh ground on the 7f & 5f bends for day 2 (last raced on 28th August).
Stalls: 1m2f & 1m5f – Inside. Remainder (straight course) – centre
Saturday morning course update: Forecast: Cloudy with risk of a light showers on Saturday (approx. 1-2mm)
Weather: 1mm starting at 3pm
See my tweet 11.42am on Thursday, as above, or here (cut and paste); https://x.com/tony_calvin/status/1968626704215081350/photo/1
Richard Spencer blinkers 8-62; Space Cowboy, 2.25pm Ayr
Richard Hughes cheekpieces 14-166; Mood Queen, 3pm Ayr
David O’Meara visor 26-261; Solana Rose, 3pm Ayr
Andrew Balding cheekpieces 26-203; Purosangue, 3.35pm Ayr
Julie Camacho cheekpieces 11-97; Milford, 3.35pm Ayr
Simon and Ed Crisford cheekpieces 4-47; Boatswain, 2.05pm Newbury
Hughie Morrison blinkers 17-145; Azahara Palace, 2.05pm Newbury
1.15pm Ayr: Hi Royal (drawn 13)?, Northern Express (2), Naepoint (6)
1.30pm Newbury: Rage Of Bamby (11), Habooba (2), Queen All Star (6)
1.50pm Ayr: Caviar Heights (5), Certain Lad (1)
2.05pm Newbury: Majestic Warrior (3), (Lieber Power (14) has been ridden prominently on occasions)
2.25pm Ayr: Sudden Flight (20), Sergeant Wilko (3), Dark Thirty (5), Gweedore (9), Candy (16), Arctic Voyage (10), Bodhi Bear (21), Eye Of Dubai (8), Aberama Gold? (2), Silky Wilkie (1), Space Cowboy (6), Roberto Caro (23), Righthere Rightnow (15)
2.40pm Newbury: Almosh’her (10), Forest Gate (6), Due To Henry (2)
3pm Ayr: Argentine Tango (11), Coming Attraction (9), Dandana (5), Isle Of Fernandez (7), Lam Yai (2), Rogue Attraction (8), Solana Rose (6) – Wateen is a NR as at 6.43am (going)
3.15pm Newbury: Flying Comet (3), Golden Queen Kindly (5), Into The Sky (6), Rock On Thunder (2), Sands Of Spain (4), Watcha Snoop (1)
3.35pm Ayr: Hammer The Hammer (8), Jordan Electrics (10), Flash Harry (15), Run Boy Run (6), Solar Aclaim (7), Fahrenheit Seven (11), Bergerac (25), Desert Falcon (5)
Horses well in handicap-wise: Ain’t Nobody (+13), Jubilee Walk (+3), Flash Harry (+2), Commanche Falls (+1)
Superb: James Tate (seven of his last 11 runners have won after Caburn’s success at 3.30pm at Yarmouth on Thursday, latest runner was beaten a neck, going into Friday’s racing)
Good: William Haggas, Owen Burrows, John and Thady Gosden, Karl Burke, George Boughey (very good), David Simcock (very good), Charlie Appleby, Harry Charlton, James Owen, T J Kent (very small sample), Jim Goldie (three winners on Thursday and another on Friday, but plenty of runners it has to be said), Andrew Balding, Adrian Keatley (three Ayr winners this week so far)
Fair: Jonathan Portman, Simon and Ed Crisford, Kevin Ryan, Clive Cox, Ed Walker, Mick Appleby, Jack Channon, Ian Williams, Gary and Josh Moore, Olly Murphy, Hughie Morrison (borderline moderate), Roger Varian, Tom Ward, Alan King, Harry Eustace, Jim Boyle (borderline moderate), Kevin Philippart De Foy, Tim Easterby, Richard Fahey, Ed Bethell, Michael Dods, Coyle and Wood, Richard Spencer, Iain Jardine, Mark Loughnane, Mick and David Easterby, Charlie Johnston, John and Sean Quinn (25-1 winner on Thursday), Ruth Carr, Ivan Furtado, Robert Cowell, Julie Camacho (borderline good), Michael Herrington, Adrian McGuinness, James Ferguson (edging good), David O’Meara, Richard Hughes, Richard Hannon (probably moderate but 25-1 winner on Thursday), David Menuisier (not great but a Friday 11-2 winner helped)
Moderate: Eve Johnson Houghton (a Group 1 win aside…), James Horton, Kevin Ryan, Hugo Palmer (though a 5-1 winner already on Friday. so that may be revised), Dylan Cunha, Katie Scott, Alice Haynes, Phillip Makin, Grant Tuer, J A Stack
1.10pm Ayr – Cromwell adds a big question mark to the Ayr opener Classic Maestro…
1.50pm Newmarket – 14-runner 3yo 6f handicap sets the ITV ball rolling Reciprocated, Enricher and…
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