TONY CALVIN: ONE-STOP shop for all the betting action and information for the nine ITV races on Saturday

THURSDAY SCENE-SETTER (Friday morning updates in bold)

Sandown looked firmly odds-against to go ahead after they got 18mm on Sunday with a very wet week in store – one forecast used by the course suggested they could get as much as two inches of rain Sunday to Thursday, which would have meant abandonment – but the weather has been kind.

And fair play to the course and the groundstaff, for getting it into racing shape, with just one flight of hurdles omitted.

It will obviously be very testing ground – is it ever otherwise on that hurdles track? – and another 4mm could land in the early hours of Friday, but it is game on.

They had 5.4mm on Friday morning/

Up at Musselburgh, it is good to soft for their two-day meeting starting on Saturday and they have actually been watering ahead of a dry forecast.

No amounts have been given though, tut tut.

Leopardstown have also updated their current ground (see below). They had 3mm on Friday morning.

It is currently soft on the hurdles course and yielding on the chase circuit.

Copy to follow on Friday morning (hint – there is some silly 14s about Dartmoor Pirate out there, four places, in 3.07pm at Sandown as this goes live), but hopefully the stats and info below gives you a headstart of sorts.

There may be some more DRF assessment later on Friday afternoon if I see anything of punting interesting.

Here is what the clerks told the Racing Post on Friday – why did Musselburgh water?

If you have a good ground horse at Musselburgh, then maybe you should be worried – and it begs the question of why they watered.

Musselburgh clerk of the course Bill Farnsworth said: “The ground is good to soft, but it’s close to the soft side of good to soft. We put a bit of water on the track on Thursday and it’s definitely softer today than it was yesterday.

“The forecast is mainly dry right through until the end of Sunday’s fixture, so I don’t think conditions will change very much.”

Sandown clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said “the ground in the home straight was “very wet”.

FRIDAY COPY (9.15am – all prices are checked and correct when I hit publish)

1.25pm Sandown – 12/1 In Limbo could stoop to conquer

I gave half a shout to In Limbo at 16s for this race on Tuesday (I had a little bet on him at 14s as the 16s wasn’t accessible to anyone I know)  and I am still keen enough on his chances.

He is a top-priced 12s now (in three places), but, against that, we have lost seven at the overnight stage, so those odds remain very fair.

He was due to run at the abandoned Exeter meeting on Wednesday and I can see this stiffer 2m4f test suiting him after shaping well enough over 2m at Newbury last time. He had similarly stuck on well enough over the minimum trip at Exeter before that.

He has a lot of stamina in his pedigree and this ex-pointer makes his handicap debut from a fair, if not generous, opening mark of 115.

His 3m point form against Shanagh Bob and Gorgeous Tom (a 5-length third, with the winner now rated 131 and the runner-up a 135-rated Grade 3 winner over fences) looks decent enough in the context of this race though, and that mark.

His Exeter fourth looks fair too (all the first three are now rated in the 120s),

He is the bet in the race at 12s each way, three places, if you want one. And I’ll have a small press-up myself.

He has drifted to 14s in two places as at 4.30pm on Friday.

1.42pm Musselburgh – Maitre En Science the one to beat if he can bring his French form to the table

All 10 have stood their ground for this Scottish Triumph Hurdle, and those that managed to snaffle the 8s about Harry Derham’s French recruit Maitre En Science earlier in the week, ante post, are clearly sitting smug and pretty.

His UK mark of 133 gives him upwards of 8lb in hand of this field on weight-adjusted ratings – in fact Timeform have him as much as 11lb superior on their figures, despite carrying a 3lb penalty here – so he has an obvious form chance.

If that mark can be believed.

Now, the French translation often isn’t a smooth transition, as we saw with Sauvignon and Mambonumberfive last weekend – both ran Barry Crockers, though, and you’d hope they’d be much better than that given their price tags – and this horse hasn’t been seen since September (that Clarefontaine win is working out well, though), but he has been entered in the Triumph and he clearly shouldn’t be underestimated here (entries only made for Cheltenham recently).

They have been watering on good to soft ground at Musselburgh – Timeform have his two wins in France as coming on soft, so that probably helps a touch – and the stable are showing signs of finally hitting form again, so I don’t have too many issues with his price of [11/4] in a place, with [5/2] and [9/4] a more honest assessment of his market price.

This could be a decent renewal of this race though, and the Irish duo of Luker’s Tipple (one firm made him 10s on Thursday when 6s was the next best price, which possibly meant that their odds-compilers fancied it – and that was quickly cut into 7s) and Solar Drive promise to be fair dangers, along with the likes of Nardaran and Static.

In fact, there are other unexposed horses in here too, so it’s a tricky race to call, but if you have that 8s Maitre En Science you are a happy bunny.

Luker’s Tipple has taken on decent horses when second to Sainte Lucie and Pure Steel so far, and he is probably the pick of the prices each way at 7s and 6s if you wanted an investment, though be aware this is his third run for a mark and maybe they will be looking at the Boodles/Fred Winter (or whatever it is called at the moment) after this.

I’ll probably sit this one out.

2pm Sandown – This could be Etalon’s for the taking at [9/4], and he will probably shorten

Another example of having to put overly-generous ante-post prices to the back of your mind, as the [9/2] in three places – effectively, with the same bookmaking firm – about Etalon on Tuesday stood out a mile.

It was just a silly price.

He has three less rivals to contend with here and is now a more realistic [9/4], though even that will be coming under pressure sooner rather than later on Friday morning.

To be honest, I’m not totally sold that there has been as much promise in his four runs this season (unseated too early to tell last time but he was going well enough) as some would have you believe but he has come down 6lb in the weights for them and he is now only 4lb higher than when slamming Gunsight Ridge by 9 lengths here on soft ground last February.

I can resist him at the current odds but if they aren’t looking to get another pound or two off – I can’t believe the trigger won’t be pulled here given this is such a winnable 50k pot, but I am done second-guessing this outfit – then he must go close here.

This is certainly his ground, and the more you look at the opposition, the more that [9/4] actually appeals as the best bet in the race. He could easily start [7/4] or less, but I don’t like trying to predict the market these days.

There have been nibbles for Solo at 11s and 10s downwards, and he is now a best-priced [15/2].

2.17pm Musselburgh – Obviously happy with 10/1 ante-post position with Florida Dreams

I flagged up Florida Dreams as being the best ante-post play at 10s on Tuesday, closely followed by Etalon at [9/2] at Sandown, and he is effectively now a 4s chance, with a stand-out 5s in one place.

The case for him stands, but I must say that even the 5s wouldn’t particularly interest me now, as I thought this was a fair (if not strong) 0-145 Scottish County Hurdle, even if we are three shy of a maximum field with 12 runners (we lost six at the overnight stage).

What I wrote about him on Tuesday, bar the price, holds true.

I was hugely disappointed by Florida Dreams’ effort in the fog at Aintree last time – I had a good go on him there, so the dejection was purely financial – and surprisingly the handicapper didn’t even drop him 1lb for that.

Perhaps 2m4f in soft ground simply found him out there, and the assessor simply ignored it (unlike Annsam’s run at Ascot last time, which I still find hard to fathom).

Certainly, if he can put that poor run behind him, then he is a huge player here on his earlier fifth in the Greatwood off a 1lb higher mark, especially on presumably better ground (watered, mind you, and the clerk’s comments above worry me) as he steps back down to a sub-2m trip.

He travelled really well for a long way in the Greatwood, so I reckon he could bounce back here on a speed track on which he won his bumper (he found 3m way beyond his stamina limit at this track last season).

And maybe even a reproduction of his Hexham win in October (the short-head runner-up is now rated 12lb higher) will see him win this.

However, his price has gone for now, which is also the case for last year’s winner Afadil (4lb lower here), similarly 10s on Tuesday but now a mere 4s, tops.

Paul Nicholls has a great record at this meeting, so I get the move – he was racing on the unfavoured inner part of the track when running badly in a very valuable race at Southwell last time and got dropped 3lb for it – but surely his price has long gone.

The opening 9s about Balhambar was quickly taken late on Thursday morning, and so was the 7s, five places, in one spot – the latter play was peachy for those who got it as I badly struggle to see five horses beating him home.

He may have gone up 5lb for two defeats this season, but I’d say that rise was fully justified, and the cheekpieces he wore at Cheltenham two starts ago (travelled really strongly in them there) are back on here.

In short, all the best prices have been snaffled, though Balhambar is still a stand-out 6s in a place (yes, that one again) and that is very good business each way, four places, if you have access, via fair means or foul…

2.35pm Sandown – 33/1 Mark Of Gold not the no-hoper the betting suggests

Impaire Et Passe was the favourite for this race on Monday but the betting soon began to hint he wouldn’t be coming as all the money arrived for Jango Baie from [5/2] downwards.

The Nicky Henderson horse is now best at [10/11], in one place, as none of the three Irish horse have taken up their five-day entry.

I’d be firmly in the Jango Baie camp after what he did to Springwell Bay on his chasing debut at Cheltenham last time, albeit in receipt of 8lb – the runner-up is now rated 154 after hacking up next time – but I can let [10/11] pokes win every day of the week, and twice on a Saturday.

Handstands was 8s in a place on Monday and he is into [11/4], with Kalif du Berlais at [7/2] and Mark Of Gold at 33s.

I get that he is the obviously outsider of the four, and by some way, but I wouldn’t go anywhere near laying that 33s (available in three places), even if he arguably could want better ground.

Okay, he was helped by the final fence mistake of Personal Ambition at Ascot last time, but he was storming home there and he is only 2lb shy of Handstands on official ratings.

And, talking of those, the 5yo Kalif Du Berlais gets a 4lb age allowance from these, so he is arguably overpriced too at [7/2] after beating a subsequent winner pointless at Cheltenham last time.

The obvious question he has to answer (unlike his three rivals) is his stamina for 2m4f, especially so on soft ground around here.

His pedigree and run-style would give you some encouragement, but the fact is he has not raced beyond 2m1f before and this will take some getting in the ground, all right.

2.50pm Musselburgh – No betting opinion here against a solid favourite

The Kalooki Kid did it well at Doncaster and a 7lb rise may not stop him following up, but a top-priced [5/2] in two places is not floating my boat, for all this course winner is much the likeliest winner.

Saying that, I don’t fancy anything else strongly against him, though a more accurate assessment could be that I can see the case for plenty without coming to a firm betting conclusion.

Marble Sands and Saint Segal are vying for second favouritism at around the [11/2] mark, which I wouldn’t argue with, but if you want to throw bigger-priced darts then the Derham pair of Fidelio Valis and Sir Pyscho (20s) aren’t bad prices.

That said, Fidelio Vallis has gone from 16s on Thursday afternoon to a top-priced 10s on my final Friday morning copy and prices sweep, so that ship may have sailed to a large extent.

I put up Arizona Cardinal in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Donny last weekend, and he was a massive drifter before being taken out because of the ground.

He is a tempting 20s+ here but I suspect he may find this too lively again unless they really have got lively with the watering can (it appears they may have judged from the clerk’s comments), and the stable form remains a fair worry.

3.07pm Sandown – 9/1 Dartmoor Pirate the each-way play against a very dangerous favourite

You get the distinct impression some firms are on a wind-up when they come out with their early prices late on Thursday morning.

I know you can’t get a lot on (if indeed any at all) but I just can’t fathom how some firms put Dartmoor Pirate in at double figures for this race, with 14s and 12s on offer.

He is tops at 9s now (in four places – it was available in 10 places at 8am) and that is probably still more than acceptable.

First things first, let’s start with the favourite Henri The Second, as he has to be feared.

He is one of only two course winners in the field (the other is Goshen) and , boy, did he strut his stuff here last time when winning by 18 lengths in heavy ground.

He only went up 8lb for that, which looks lenient even before you clock that the runner-up won next time (he is now rated 6lb higher), while the 29-length third has obliged twice since and is now 8lb higher.

So the first and third would meet on the same terms if they locked horns again.

I appreciate Sandown’s hurdle track can accentuate winning distances, but even so. I can’t argue with Henri The Second’s price at [4/1].

I’ll back him so I don’t lose on the race if he wins.

What A Johnny has been nibbled from an opening 10s into 7s (I can see that), and I backed Flight Deck win-only at 25s earlier in the week to small sums (a pony if you want to know), but the [9/1] each way, four places, about Dartmoor Pirate is the best play out there still.

He may not have won around here but he has that all-important course form (a fourth in the EBF Final over 2m4f last March, a race in which he didn’t wilt on the run-in on soft ground) and he showed he stays this trip with a good second at Wincanton last time.

He was unlucky enough to bump into a Hobbs and White stable-switcher there, having his first run for 650 days there and who was well handicapped on his 2023 form, but he pulled nicely clear of the third, so I think a 3lb rise for that defeat was fair.

Sam Twiston-Davies has a good record for the yard (24 from 132 for an 18 per cent strike rate, with 34 of the others placed second or third), so I’ll be disappointed if he isn’t at least in the top four here.

3.30pm Leopardstown – Would you lay 4/7 Galopin Des Champs?

I won’t keep you long here.

Would you lay [4/7] about Galopin Des Champs here?  (company alert – by the way, keep an eye out for the AK’s Big Prices tab on the website over the weekend as I imagine they will be betting aggressively)

I certainly wouldn’t. What have you got running for you? The [7/2] chance Fact To File, and not much else?

In fact, there was plenty of [4/6] around early on Thursday, but the last of that went at 2.54pm on Thursday according to Oddschecker.

Supersundae a super each way price at 11/2 (added 11.53am Friday)

As for the other DRF races, Supersundae sticks out at [11/2] each way in the opener at 1.15pm. That is available in three places.

One firm actually offer that horse, four places, and that is obviously good business if you can get on the form and time standard-setter, though the first-time hood is an unknown.

3.42pm Sandown – O’Connell and Pats Fancy are small ante-post bets of mine

I had very small bets on O’Connell and Pats Fancy at 8s and 28s earlier in the week, and they remain decent enough prices at 5s and 33s now.

However, that 5s is only in one place now (he was 6s in a few spots on Thursday, as well as [13/2] – you pay a price for not going up the 48=hour stage…. – so the “honest” price to tip him at would be at the general 4s, and that makes limited appeal.

Rebecca Curtis has had very few runners in recent weeks, and there must be a doubt about Pats Fancy being primed for this after his long absence, even if the 10yo is very well handicapped off 133 now.

I can see the case for a few in here but there is absolutely nothing not to like about O’Connell, bar his ebbing price.

As I wrote on Tuesday: “He is clearly progressive, handles 3m and soft ground, and the stable are in good form, too.

He went up 9lb for his Market Rasen win over 3m3f+ last time but he is well equipped to deal with a gruelling stamina test here.”

His winning margin was accentuated by the last-fence fall of Kelce last time but he had the race in the bag at that point and he just looks a progressive grinder with plenty of upside.

BEST BET

Dartmoor Pirate at [9/1] each way, four places, in 3.07pm at Sandown. Available in four places.

(Plenty more betting suggestions and angles mentioned in copy – such as In Limbo – so please have a read).

 

GOING/WEATHER/STICK READINGS/RAILS – updated 8.18am Saturday

 

SANDOWN 

Going – Chase: Heavy, soft in places; Hurdle: Heavy

Going stick reading – Chase: 3.8 Hurdle: 3.3 (7.30am Saturday)

Weather: Dry

Saturday morning course update: “18mm rain Sunday. 6.4mm rain Monday. 2.6mm rain Tuesday. Dry Wednesday. Dry Thursday. 7mm rain Friday. Dry overnight. Saturday generally dry and cloudy, at about 8 degrees, with light drizzle possible at times.”

Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

 

MUSSELBURGH (“Watering on Thursday to maintain current going as we go into the weekend”)

Going – Good to soft

Going stick reading – 6.4 (Friday 9am)

Weather: Basically dry for racing today but 7mm due from 6pm Saturday-3am Sunday

Saturday morning course update: “Partly Cloudy.Saturday, mixed cloud and sunshine, 1-3mm after racing. 7°\0°. Cold start. Sunday, mostly cloudy day, 0-1.5mm 8°\2°, Gusty winds at times.”

Watering: No amounts given

Rails

• 2:50pm: Race distance is now -46y to 2m 4f 22y

• 3:57pm: Race distance is now -46y to 2m 7f 92y

 

LEOPARDSTOWN 

Saturday morning course update

GOING:

Soft. (Hurdle), Yielding, Good to Yielding in places (Chase).

Dry Friday and overnight. 43mm rain in the past week. Bright start to Saturday. Cloud building through day on a moderate breeze, with patchy showers developing overnight (potentially 3-4mm). Sunday looks bright with sunny spells and a light breeze. Temperatures of around 9C. Chase rail is set 5 yards out from the innermost Chase line. Day 1 Hurdle rail is set 22 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 2 Hurdle rail is set 17 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Distances as advertised.

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

SANDOWN AND MUSSELBURGH – ITV races

Paul Nicholls cheekpieces 22-82 (since 2016)– Nardaran, 1,42 Muss

 

Nick Alexander hood 0-30 (2013) – Platin Moon, 1,42 Muss

 

Adrian Keatley cheekpieces 4-31 (2016) – Maghlaak, 2.17pm Muss

 

Harry Derham cheekpieces 2-7 (2023)  – Fidelio Vallis, 2.50pm Muss

 

Parkinson and Smith cheekpieces  0-2 (2024) – Grand Geste, 1.25pm Sand

 

Sue Smith cheekpieces 3-22 (2016) (see above)

 

Olly Murphy cheekpieces 13-88 (2017) – What A Johnny, 3.07pm Sand

 

LEOPARDSTOWN on Saturday (all races)

 

Willie Mullins cheekpieces 8-45 since 2016 – Jasmin De Vaux, 1.15pm Leop & Shanbally Kid 4.05pm Leop

 

Willie Mullins hood 31-180 (2013) – Supersundae, 1.15pm Leop

 

Liam Kenny cheekpieces 0-0  – World Of Fortunes, 1.15pm Leop

 

Gavin Cromwell hood 2-46 – Hello Neighbour. 1.50pm Leop

 

Martin Brassil visor 0-0 (will double check this!)– Desertmore House, 2.25pm Leop

 

Declan Queally hood 3-38 (2016) – A Tipp For Gold, 2.25pm Leop

 

Noel Meade hood 8-42 (2013) – Colcannon, 4.35pm Leop

 

BALLOTED OUT

4.27pm Musselburgh (no ante-post betting, mind you): Sea Legend, Skiddaw

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (out of the handicap; ITV races)

2pm Sandown: Dr TJ Eckleburg (5lb wrong)

3.07pm Sandown: Gaye Legacy (3lb), Lucky One (4lb)

 

 

PACE MAPS (ITV races only; manually done)

 

1.25pm Sandown: De Kingpin, In Limbo (made it in points), Sole Solution, Just Lucky Sivola (prom), Grand Geste (prom), Leech?, Kalif D’Airy (prom)?

 

1.42pm Musselburgh: Maitre En Science (prom), Static (prom), Moutarde?, Nardaran (prom), Platin Moon, Solar Drive

 

2pm Sandown: Gunsight Ridge, Solo, Etalon?, Classic Maestro

 

2.17pm Musselburgh: Welsh Charger, Old Gregorian (prom), Afadil (prom), Mack The Man, Ravenscraig Castle (prom)

 

2.35pm Sandown : Handstands, Kalif Du Berlais

 

2.50pm Musselburgh: Minella Drama, The Big Chap (prom),  Corrigeen Rock (prom), Arizona Cardinal (prom), Fidelio Vallis, Saint Segal?, Traprain Law (prom),  Sir Pyscho (prom), Kansas City Star

 

3.07pm Sandown: Goshen, Red Dirt Road, Flight Deck, Dartmoor Pirate?, Hauraki Golf (prom), Idiefix Des Ciergues (prom)?

 

3.30pm Leopardstown:  Galopin Des Champs, Conflated, Embassy Gardens, Grangeclere West, Monty’s Star (prom)

 

3.42pm Sandown: Gelino Bello?, Shan Blue?, Escaria Ten (prom), In D’Or, Gustavian, Dreaming Blue

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; all trainers with runners in ITV races)

 

TRAINER IN FOCUS: Willie Mullins

No trainer’s form really stood out, either way, in truth, but seeing this is Willie’s Weekend, I thought I’d put together a few meaningless lines on the great man.

Given the prices his horses go off at, you’d expect punchy strike rates from Mullins – he hasn’t dipped below a monthly figure of 20 per cent since July – but his current form is still impressive coming into the Dublin Racing Festival.

He is 30 from 91 this month, and, since January 26, seven of his last 10 runners have won.

Mind you, you’d still have made a considerable loss backing all his horses at SP this month, so he’d better pull his socks up.

Given the numbers he will run at the DRF, that is highly unlikely to improve, but he is going well, all the same.

 

 

Good: Olly Murphy, Paul W Flynn, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Ewan Whillans, Killahena and McPherson, Willie Mullins, Nicky Henderson, Parkinson and Smith (two winners on Friday already, one at 11-1), Christian Williams (hopefully has turned a corner)

Fair:  Lucinda Russell, Nick Alexander, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Nicky Richards, Alastair Ralph, Venetia Williams, Jennie Candlish, Joe Tizzard (double on Thursday), Ben Pauling, Martin Keighley, Evan Williams, Joe Tickle, Deborah Cole (three runners, one winner), Charles Byrnes, Anthony Honeyball, David Pipe (11-2 winner on Friday), Dan Skelton, Gordon Elliott, Tom Symonds, Toby Lawes (11-2 winner on Thursday)

Moderate: Harry Derham (maybe turning a corner – not sure a 2-9 winner by a nose on Friday is good or bad, tbh), Anthony Charlton, Paul Nicholls (moderate, for him), Donald McCain (maybe more fair), Brian Ellison, Tristan Davidson (not a massive sample and he has had some big-priced runners), Iain Jardine, Stuart Edmunds, Jane Williams, Tara Lee Cogan (though a 100-1 second in there), Henry De Bromhead, Gary and Josh Moore (improving, and a 7-1 winner on Friday)

Don’t know: Adrian Keatley (probably good with a 12-1 winner from three runners, but also a 4-7 loser in there), Andrew Kinirons, Tim Reed, Chris Down, Rebecca Curtis (only one recent runner)