By Tony Calvin - 25 April 2025
See updated watering details below.
Note the change in the hurdle going stick reading at Sandown – and it just got even lower on Saturday morning.
It has gone from 6.0 on Thursday, to 5.3 on Friday, to 5.0 on Saturday.
Historical readings suggests that is nearer good to soft/soft than good.
This race held up well at the overnight stage (we lost just five runners, including the top weight and ante-post favourite Fingle Bridge, which was pretty much as expected, given the ground).
I flagged up Big Ginge at 25s each way on Tuesday and I think he just about remains the most attractively priced horse at 16s, with four places on offer at those odds (once again, the firm offering five places go a measly 10s – and they tend to not let you take SP, a practice I would like to see challenged with a rep of the bookmaker on TV).
The 16s is available in six places.
Now, I wouldn’t know Jamie Neild from Adam (presumably he owns the horse, or he is a family member of the owner, J D Neild – actually I am just told he is the son of owner John) and I have no idea if he is value, or otherwise, for his 7lb claim – and this is a very tricky hurdles track to ride – but his stats are okay.
And I knew he would be riding him on Tuesday (he has ridden the horse in all his outings), so I can hardly bleat about that now, anyway.
He was 5lb out of the handicap when running a screamer here when 10th in the Imperial Cup last time, beaten just over 6 lengths – We’re Red And Blue and the Sorceleur, who has been punted and plotted for this, finished 8th and 9th there – and his only other run at this track saw him chinned by a short-head here in November.
His qualifying second to subsequent winner Jurancon at Newbury in January also reads well, and he looks a pretty solid each way proposition to me.
For all he meets young horses (all bar HMS President range between four and six) I think this represents a lesser grade of handicap than the Imperial Cup.
This would be a nice spot for the horse to lose his maiden tag.
It is all irrelevant now unfortunately, as it has just come through that Big Ginge is a non-runner as at 9.56am on Friday (lame), so that’s my betting interest in this race over.
I am not a fan of the stable – and their current form would have to worry you – but the rogue 28s in a place about We’re Red And Blue just looks bang wrong on his Imperial Cup run last time.
If you can access that then you are on at the right price at least, as he has three runs to his name which suggests a mark of 120 gives him every chance in an admittedly wide-open race.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : I always mention that The Times’ nap is popular, and Fasol is the main mover in here early doors. From 18s and 16s into 11s across the board.
I don’t have a betting opinion here, other than the obvious observation that Classic Anthem has an excellent record around here (form figures of 3178221, which become 221 when you isolate his chase starts) and he comes into this on a back of a clear-cut track and trip win on good ground last time.
He is up to a career-high mark of 123 and Jim Boyle is hardly in great form on the Flat, but Classic Anthem looks a solid [9/2] each-way proposition, with Champion jockey-elect Sean Bowen in the plate once again (it would have been preferable if the David Power Jockeys’ Cup had not overshadowed his incredible achievements throughout the season – a title should carry far more media weight than a gimmick).
There is not much of a price edge at [9/2], though.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : Not a great deal doing here. Nibbles for Mahons Glory from 16s into 12s, which could be coming under pressure
Billyjoh was 16s in midweek and he is now into [7/1], but that looks understandable on a few counts.
Firstly, he had the option of Southwell on Sunday then (a race in which he finished a neck second last season) and, more importantly, the numbers in this race have come down to 11 from 21 at the five-day stage.
And among the 10 no-shows on Thursday were such as the [7/2] ante-post favourite Fine Interview.
So I think the current [7/1] , three places, is very fair; indeed, he is available at [7/1] and [13/2], four places and that would interest me even more.
The 7s, four places, looks a good bet to me.
Connections presumably fancy this race for him too (his form figures at Southwell read 51124) and the grey shaped okay from off the pace (it generally paid to be handy that day) when eighth at Doncaster on his reappearance, his first outing since October.
He got dropped 1lb for that and he is now 3lb lower than when a 1 ½-length third in the Stewards’ Cup in August, a performance which you can mark up given his track position (he was towards the middle and the first two home were near-side).
If he comes back to his midsummer 2024 form, which also included a second to English Oak in the Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot, it is perhaps pretty hard to see him finishing out of the first four here, with the quick ground (though the track have disappointingly kept watering details a secret) very much in his favour.
The stable could certainly do with a winner (a negative), but plenty have been running well enough in defeat.
Billyjoh has actually drifted to a massive 12s and 11s as at 10.26am – take that if you can.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : I haven’t see much movement overnight here.
Gaelic Warrior was only confirmed for this race some time after his three stablemates, just before 10am on Thursday, so make of that what you will.
He is [11/8], the [6/4] having been taken yesterday, with his main form and market rival Pic D’orhy a [5/2] chance.
I have no problem with either price – and the Nicholls horse promises to get an uncontested lead here – with Gentleman De Mee the bleedin’ obvious each way proposition at [13/2] in a place (the early [15/2] on Thursday didn’t last long).
And the fact that there are nine runners here gives each-way punters the wriggle (say wriggle, not wiggle, as that surely makes more sense?) room of one non-runner.
He did remarkably well to win the Topham off 155 (he was last at one stage) and he is third clear-best on official figures.
Indeed, he is only 2lb off Pic D’orhy.
But no need to force a bet at the current prices.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : Gaelic Warrior is strong into evens pretty much across the board (was 11/8 early yesterday).
It is hard enough getting paid on winning bets these days – and the firm in question must have pulled some favours with the UK press to get away as lightly as they have in print on this side of the Irish Sea – so make sure you get your money back if you backed any of the eight balloted-out horses below.
Online sleepers these days should not be a thing (or in the shops too, obviously), but they are. And I bet they are not inconsiderable, in numbers as well as cash.
A full field of 12 for this 7f then (run on the inner course), and it is a tricky one all right, and you’ll get some hard-luck stories here, I’d have thought.
There are a few that will be keen to get on the front end (see pace map below), with the obvious proviso that they will want to avoid a burn-up in doing so.
His fitness has to be taken on trust but Gorak has one way of going and I wouldn’t lay him at anywhere near 20s (with two firms), coming out of stall one, with extra places.
He was in good form this time last season, running well first time out and then finishing a short-head second to Carrytheone at Newmarket off a 1lb higher mark than this (Divine Libre a nose away in third), and I can’t see why he is 20s here.
He has run twice here, winning once and finishing a 2-length fourth in a Group 3 John Of Gaunt in the other. The fitness factor is the big unknown.
Rhoscolyn is another horse I wouldn’t lay either at the generally available 40s, given he has had a recent spin (admittedly last at Thirsk) and finished a close fourth (off just a 1lb lower mark) in this race last season.
The course winner has always needed his first start of the season, and probably more so than ever now he is a 7yo.
I will play both to small stakes.
Thunder Roar and Telemark are NRs, so check for revised terms for any each way bets you may have struck. Some firms who were offering four places now may only offer three.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : My two have shortened into 12s and 33s in a place, but Myal is the main mover into [7/2].
No Lossiemouth, which makes this an eminently winnable Grade 2, with stablemate Kitzbuhel assuming favouritism at a best-priced [15/8].
They stick a first-time hood on him in the hope he settles a lot better than he did when disappointing at Aintree last time.
He probably has the raw talent to win this but I thought Blueking d’Oroux was a touch overpriced at 9s in this (the 10s was taken on Thursday), for all he carries a 6lb penalty here (the penalties kick in from September 2023, which seems a touch harsh).
He was giving Lucky Place 6lb when beaten a length by that one at Ascot earlier in the season and he finished a fair fourth in a much stronger renewal of this race last season.
The penalty makes this tough and he ran a shocker when we last saw him in the National Spirit in February but Nicholls would have targeted this for him since with a view to netting owner Johnny de la Hey (also owns Pic D’orhy) a winner on this big day and I’ve backed him.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning :A pretty static market so far.
Jonbon probably wins, but let’s just let him dance in unbacked at [1/2].
If I hear this horse being described as being underappreciated one more time, Ill scream.
He isn’t, as befits a horse who has won 10 Grade 1s, is unbeaten around here, has won 18 of his 22 starts, finishing second in the other four.
I swear people make up the underappreciated line, just so they can immediately dispel the notion themselves and try to come across as clever.
Spoiler Alert. They don’t.
Master Chewy is [15/2] in the betting without Jonbon (see Oddschecker) and that interests me.
He clearly didn’t get home over 2m5f in the Ryanair last time and his previous Game Spirit win at Newbury gives him a better chance than those without odds would suggest, as does his narrow second to Found A Fifty in a Grade 1 at Aintree last season.
He was only a [14/1] chance outright when falling in the Tingle Creek won by Jonbon in December (and he does have a mistake in him), yet he is [15/2] without here after running well since.
The [15/2] is the bet if you can access it (was 8s on Thursday, but was nibbled in).
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : Jonbon is weak. Out to [8/13] fixed-odds from a general 2s on, and 1.72 to small money on Betfair.
I nailed my colours to the Minella Cocooner mast at 20s and 16s on Tuesday, but the value ship has arguably sailed there now he is just [15/2] in a place.
That is probably on the cusp of acceptable now.
In fact, I slept on that line overnight, and I do actually think that arguably remains the best bet in the race, each way with extra places, for all the price has ebbed away since Tuesday.
Here is what I wrote about him on Tuesday:
“Minella Cocooner was arguably the biggest hard-luck story in the Grand National (vying with Grangeclere West, who made a mistake at the last, for that title), as Jonathan Burke’s saddle slipped before the first.
So he performed miracles to finish seventh, weakening late on, especially as that slipped saddle probably contributed to the ground-costing mistakes he made on the way round.
He is 2lb lower here and he won this race on good ground last season (he has form on heavy if required – highly unlikely) off just a 4lb lower mark.
He isn’t entered in any other race this week, or next, so he is a tempting enough proposition at 20s in a place and the general 16s.
If he is confirmed on Thursday and runs – and I have no idea if he is an intended starter, given the National was just three weeks ago – he is the type of horse I can see vying for favouritism on the day.”
We don’t know how much Aintree took out of him but he won this race last season 26 days after his third in a heavy ground Irish National.
Mullins dealt a few trainers a hammer blow when confirming top weight Grangeclare West late on for this race on Thursday morning – after he initially inked in his other runners, ensuring the weights didn’t rise 13lb – as that meant only three of the opposition were in the handicap.
There will be some rumblings of discontent if that horse doesn’t run now…
One of the horses out of the handicap is Goshen, to the tune of 5lb, but should he really be the outsider of the party at 50/1? (actually he was 66s but that got snapped up on Thursday).
Probably, yes!
However, I can’t resist a small each-way swing on him at that price. He is 50s, five places, with two firms.
Goshen obviously made his name as a two-miler but he has gradually picked up his feet of late when sent over 3m.
He actually finished second in a rescheduled Long Walk over 3m at Kempton on Boxing Day 2022 and he has shaped as though a dart at this extreme test over fences was in order on his last two starts, latterly when a narrow third to Holy Joe Smoke here last time, when he was coming back for more on the run-in.
Two of his better efforts over hurdles came at this track (he has form figures of 1112433) and I’ll ignore the chuckles, and chuck a tenner each way at him.
I’ve had worse bets – I think….
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : Not a great deal going on in the big betting race of the day – so far.
There may be 10 runners in this 2m4f handicap hurdle, but each-way backers should be wary.
The trainers’ title is likely to be over before this race and, as Mullins has four and Skelton two in this, it would not be the biggest surprise if we had three or more withdrawals.
This is a 35k pot but all four of Mullins’ have Punchestown entries next week, and the Skelton pair are making quick turnarounds within a week.
I’d recommend waiting until we know what is running after the bet365 Gold Cup before betting, but Ike Sport at a general 7s win-only the pick of the prices for those who want an immediate interest.
He bolted up by 6 1/2 -lengths in this race last season off just a 4lb lower mark (17 runners) and he shaped perfectly well when fifth of 20 at Aintree last time.
BETTING UPDATE Saturday morning : Couldn’t see much here either.
GOING; Good (hurdles course has been changed to good, good to soft unsurprisingly at some stage this morning – and the stick reading suggests it is deeper still)
GOING STICK (as at 8am Saturday) – Chase: 6.1; Hurdle: 5.0 (was 5.3 Friday, 6.0; Thursday)
Rails: Watering commenced March 17 and has continued since then, with approximately 50mm per week applied over the 6 week period. Watering Friday morning and evening – 7.5mm cycle – and will continue with the aim of maintaining Good going.
Watering: Watering commenced March 17 and has continued since then, with approximately 50mm per week applied over the 6 week period. Watering Friday morning and evening – 7.5mm cycle – and will continue with the aim of maintaining Good going.
Saturday morning update: 4mm rain in March. 8mm rain Tuesday April 15. 6.6mm rain Wednesday morning. Dry since, and dry, mainly cloudy day expected – up to 18 degrees
Weather: Dry, with possible light showers
GOING; Good, good to firm in places
GOING STICK: 6.5 at Saturday 6.30am
Saturday morning update: Dry overnight. Forecast- Dry with sunny spells during the morning then cloudy and dry during the afternoon max temp 17c.
Rails: There is a false rail from the top of the hill on the back straight all the way to the winning line, this has increased all the distances on the round course by approximately 15yds.
Weather: Dry, maybe odd shower
Watering: Selective watering on Friday morning (no amounts given)
Stalls: Straight-Stands side. Round- Inside.
GOING; Good, good to firm in places
Soil moisture average on Friday afternoon: 40%.
Going stick: 7.0, Saturday 7.45am (was 6.4, Thursday 8am)
Saturday morning update: 2mm Monday. 6mm overnight Tuesday. Dry since Wednesday, remains dry for racing. Max Temperature today due to be 14.0°C.
Weather: Dry, maybe odd shower
2.40pm Haydock: Warm Spell, Waleefy, Media Shooter, Stanage, Boardman, Liamarty Dreams, Dolce Courage, Oriental Prince (for some reason Kodi Lion wasn’t confirmed, so he could be balloted out – his ante-post punters can feel aggrieved)
Gary and Josh Moore cheekpieces 0-22 (since 2024) – Le Patron. 2.25pm
Gary was 7-87 (2016)
Olly Murphy cheekpieces 13-90 (2017) – Resplendent Grey, 4.10pm
Jamie Snowden blinkers 5-30 (2009) – Ga Law, 2.25pm
Ben Pauling cheekpieces 9-79 (2016) – Pic Roc, 1.50pm
Willie Mullins hood 33-188 (2013) – Kitzbuhel, 3pm & Olympic Man, 4.10pm
1.20pm Sandown: Give It To Me OJ (prom), Serious Challenge, HMS President, St Pancras, We’re Red And Blue, John Barbour, Marche d’Aligre
1.50pm Sandown: Mark Of Gold (prom), Insurrection (prom), Mahons Glory, Pic Roc, Inedit Star
2.05pm Leicester: Sergeant Wilko, Germanic (prom)
2.25pm Sandown: Pic D’orhy, Le Patron (prom), Hitman (prom)
2.40pm Haydock: Ramazan (prom), Yorkshire, Divine Libra (prom), Gorak, Myal
3.00pm Sandown: Blueking d’Oroux?, Kitzbuhel, Salver
3.35pm Sandown: Edwardstone?, Energumene?, Jonbon?, Unexpected Party?
4.10pm Sandown: Threeunderthrufive, Dancing City, High Class Hero (prom), Monbeg Genius (prom), Lombron, Olympic Man (prom), O’Moore Park, Collectors Item (prom)
4.45pm Sandown: Bunting?, Push The Button, Dr Eggman, Electric Mason, Jump Allen (prom), Peacenik, Mostly Sunny?
Superb: Olly Murphy (again firing in the winners on Thursday, with a four-timer; on fire) – the relentless Murphy march continued at Perth on Friday with a four-timer
Good: Fergal O’Brien, Willie Mullins, Dan Skelton (treble on Thursday), Ed Bethell, Sam England, Ruth Carr, Ed Walker, Jamie Snowden (another winner on Friday), Julie Camacho (a double on Thursday), Warren Greatrex (winner on Friday), Kevin Ryan (two winners on Thursday), Simon and Ed Crisford (winner on Thursday)
Fair: Nigel Twiston-Davies (borderline moderate), Gary and Josh Moore (winner on Thursday), Emma Lavelle, Richard Fahey, James Horton, Michael Dods, Ed Dunlop, John Gallagher, Mick Appleby (no winners from a fairly big sample though), Harry Charlton, David O’Meara, Charlie Fellowes, Alan King, Nicky Henderson, Dylan Cunha, Tim Easterby (winners on Thursday and Friday), Hughie Morrison, Neil Mulholland (winner on Friday), Charles Hills, Ryan Potter, Ben Pauling (was pretty woeful before a 40-1 winner and 13-2 second on Thursday)
Moderate: Paul Nicholls (moderate for him, anyway – though he had a 4/11 winner at Chepstow on Friday), Jim Boyle, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Venetia Williams (certainly some signs of a revival this week though, with a 9-4 winner on Thursday and three placed at big prices)
Don’t know: Toby Lawes, Steph Hollinshead, Nick Kent, Tony Coyle and Kaine Wood (probably moderate), Katy Price
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