By Tony Calvin - 24 April 2025
You will often hear TV presenters and pundits sound surprised by a late move for a horse on the show price – and then the reason immediately becomes clear once the race starts.
The phenomenon of late gambles on the show price getting uncontested leads is hardly a new one – it would be naïve to think jockeys don’t discuss the pace and running plans in the weighing room on occasions, and this occasionally permeates to the betting markets pre-race – and that is exactly what happened with Thunder Wonder at Musselburgh last Saturday.
The late gamble and lead part, not the jockeys’ chat, to be clear….
He went from 8s to 4s on the show, duly got across from stall six and straight on the lead, and never saw a rival thereafter.
His all-the-way 5 ½-length win there means he is 4lb well-in under his 6lb penalty in the 1.50pm at Sandown on Friday.
Will Charlie Johnston’s 3yo be afforded the same luxury there?
My pace map below suggests The Lost King, Tilted Kilt (make your own puns) and San Juanito may serve it up to him, but we shall see.
I may as well preview the race now – the other five ITV contests will follow on Thursday morning.
This race analysis was published at 12.39pm on Wednesday.
Thunder Wonder opened up at 4s in a place on Wednesday morning (now available in two spots), which was slightly surprising as he was [7/2] in the ante-post market and we lost seven horses at the overnight stage (granted, one wasn’t qualified).
He was undeniably impressive last weekend, and the time was good, but he meets a different class of horse here and he may get a very different pace set-up.
Strangely perhaps, there is a strong piece of Southwell form on display here concerning him and two others in the line-up.
Course winner Dividend is only 1lb worse off for the 3 ¼-lengths he beat the subsequently-improved Thunder Wonder at Southwell in early April – Tilted Kilt was beaten 2 ½ lengths into second and is now 7lb and 6lb better off with the winner and third respectively, and has the services of Ryan Moore – so that is a hard formline to unravel.
You could easily argue that Tilted Kilt was the overpriced one at 14s and 12s on Wednesday morning.
I did find this dead-eight Esher Cup a very tricky race though and, not long before the 10am confirmation deadline, we only had five runners in this, with Seraph Gabriel, San Juanito and Penfolds Grange added in late (at the last minute in the case of the latter, and it took a while for Harry Eustace to confirm Adam Farragher as the jockey).
We at least have recent form to go on with six of the eight.
If pushed, I would probably side with the only maiden in the field, the aforementioned Tilted Kilt, as he shaped well on the outside in that Southwell race, and the booking of Moore is obviously no bad thing.
Moore is five from 22 for William Knight (five of the beaten horses came second).
The 14s and 12s disappeared at 12.17pm on Wednesday, and he is now best at 10s as this goes live (now 9s best).
Just when you think we have had our fill of Nationals this season, up pops the Highland version over 3m6f121yd.
It’s a touch less glamorous than the headline suggests though, as it is a 0-125 staying handicap with just 13 runners.
The 2023 winner If Not For Dylan has an obvious chance at [13/2], warming up for another crack at this with a win at Newcastle in January.
The subsequent absence raises a doubt, though – was it planned or not, given he had a 612-day break between drinks after winning this in April 2023? – and that would gnaw away at me if I was tempted to back him.
But ask yourself do you really want to get involved in a 0-125 staying handicap on the penultimate day of the season just because it is on ITV?
My answer is no.
I wouldn’t give this a second look if this was on Racing TV in midweek.
Champion-jockey elect Sean Bowen is on the in-form Fairlawn Flyer for the family and is probably a fair poke at 6s (the 7s was taken yesterday – and he strikes as the likely favourite and most solid betting proposition) but the 18s (albeit in just one place) about Prince Des Fichaux probably interested me most if you wanted a bet.
He is far more chancy than Fairlawn Flyer, granted.
He is already 4lb lower than for a fair (beaten 22 lengths admittedly) in the Eider two starts ago – he ran badly at Kelso last time – and maybe the blinkers replacing the cheekpieces can spark him back to life.
He didn’t excel in a visor in this race last season but many of his better efforts have come in blinkers (including a neck second in the 2024 Eider off an 8lb higher mark than this) and that could be a very tentative betting angle into him at the price, alongside that falling handicap mark.
Very tentative, admittedly.
Magna Sam is a NR as at 8.18am on Thursday because of the going.
Another tricky contest with very little separating the [11/4] favourite Almaqam and [10/1] outsider-of-seven (one firm are offering three places but make you pay for it price-wise) Arabian Crown in the betting.
It is, after all, a race in which only 6lb separates the septet on official adjusted ratings.
The Godolphin pair of Ancient Wisdom and Arabian Crown were added in late to this race on Wednesday morning, and they provide the probable pace angles.
Both failed to run up to their best on their reappearances – and in the case of Ancient Wisdom, last of seven in the John Porter at Newbury, spectacularly so.
Connections said he wanted slower ground than prevailed that day (it was officially good, which Timeform agreed with), so presumably he may not run here.
Sandown had 6.6mm of rain on Wednesday morning and the round course eased to good, good to soft in places, but it is set to be dry from hereon in.
Providing the course do not water the Flat courses further (to be confirmed), you’d think you’d be potentially looking at ground on the quicker side of good by Friday afternoon.
Officially the best horse at these weights are the aforementioned Almaqam and See The Fire (who was also in the bet365 Mile), and I’d probably lean toward the latter at the price of (11/2], albeit that is available in just one place and unlikely to last.
Indeed, the general price is [9/2].
She is clearly equally proficient at a mile and 1m2f (and in between), but her Nassau second over 1m2f on quick ground is just about her best effort to date.
The form of the yard is a positive, though we don ‘t know how straight she is for her comeback, but I suppose she didn’t excel when fourth in the Eclipse here (and improved massively afterwards), so that’d be a slight worry.
In summary, do I have a strong enough opinion to have a bet here?
No.
A race presumably named after the sadly-departed Racing Post wordsmith Alastair Down but, other than that, is has very little going for it.
I wouldn’t expect Next Left to run as he looked to have a very hard race when fourth here on Wednesday and nothing in this 0-120 3m handicap chase caught my eye.
I am not even going to give you a token selection.
Wearelongterm is a NR as at 7.02am and, unsurprisingly, Next Left followed suit at 7.25am.
This is a proper race for a Group 2, with four horses rated 116 and above, with the Group 1 winner Tamfana carrying a 5lb penalty.
I was surprised that Lead Artist was the highest-rated on a mark of 117, though I suppose his Group 3 Newmarket defeat of older horses Liberty Lane and Peace Man (also in here) under a penalty reads impressively, and the money has come for him at 3s (from 4s).
Dancing Gemini put up a career-best in a good time over 1m at Doncaster on his reappearance and heads the betting here, but I could see why one firm wanted to get against him at [10/3] early on Wednesday.
They are now 3s.
He goes up another grade or two here, the horses he beat at Donny have disappointed since, and he also underperformed over course and distance in the Eclipse, as well as going backwards from his reappearance second in the French Guineas last season.
Cue a dominant win after those potential negatives!
And I suppose he could be one of those horses who goes walkies in the market and gags up. They often far more than many would have you believe.
Watch out for a non-runner in this dead-eight, so I’d be inclined to bet win-only at this stage. It is entirely possible that Ice Max, for example, gets pulled on account of the ground.
I haven’t had a bet yet and I probably won’t, but I’d just about favour Haatem at [13/2] in two places, just ahead of Alcantor at 5s; Moore has a rare ride for Andre Fabre, who landed a race at Newmarket last week.
You don’t know the state of play as regards Haatem’s fitness (we haven’t seen him since he won the Jersey), and he could be using this Group 2 as a prep for the Group 1 Lockinge next month, but he did gag up first time up last season and I think his Irish Guineas head second to Rosallion is the best form on offer here at these weights.
I don’t tend to take too much notice of stable tours, not that Richard Hannon was saying much about him in the Racing Post last week.
Hannon: “A dual Group 3 winner last year, placed in two Guineas, he’s come back looking fantastic. He’ll start off in the Group 2 at Sandown this week but his main target is the Queen Anne.”
None the wiser, then.
All of the four races on ITV at Sandown have a guessy feel to them, despite the small fields.
Ralph Beckett has two in here, and he only put the 16s chance Sir Dinadan in the race well after he confirmed I Am I Said.
That may have been to take advantage of free money for the owners – it is £2,286.50 for the worst-case scenario of fifth – but it may have been for other reasons, I guess.
Either way, he certainly looks worth an outside shot at this after his runaway win at Pontefract on his final start, as he has similar level of form to stablemate and [7/2] chance I Am I Said, as it stands.
Clearly, I Am I Said is the sexier of the pair after sluicing up on his debut at Newmarket, not that that placed horses have done much for the form since.
However, he is obviously all about the future, not the past, and similar comments apply to the once-raced Frankel colt and Southwell winner Damysus at a general 4s.
The form horses going into the race are Windlord and Swagman, with the latter the probable pace angle along with Sir Dinadan (though Windlord has gone forward, too).
The modest form of the Aidan O’Brien stable will only be temporary, but it is a factor in the here and now (as opposed to Andrew Balding’s).
So, in summary, I don’t think Windlord is too bad a price at 2s.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not backing him, but he holds the best form and time credentials on his Beresford third – the first two both went on to win Group 1s – and there is enough stamina in his pedigree to give you every hope he can stay 1m2f.
Another easy race to pass on for me, though.
And a blank betting day, on the ITV races at least.
If I see anything elsewhere when the prices come through on the other Friday races, I’ll be back. I’ll probably do a going and betting update on Friday morning, too.
Good luck.
GOING
Round: Good, good to soft in places
Sprint: Good
GOING STICK – Round: 6.0 (was 6.2 Thursday); Sprint: 6.4 (Friday 8.45am)
Watering: Flat Course irrigated selectively since the start of April. Paused on April 15. Flat Bend watered Monday (7.5mm).
Friday morning update: 4mm rain in March. 8mm Tuesday April 15. 6.6mm rain Wednesday. Dry overnight, with light grass frost. Staying dry, with temperatures in the mid teens. Sunny spells.
Weather: Dry now, possibly odds shower
Rails: Sprint Course at full width. Round Course on outermost configuration from 7f to Home Straight.
GOING: Good to soft, good in places
Whole course vertidrained 8th and 9th April. 4mm applied to the home straight of the chase course, 2mm applied to home straight of the hurdle track early this morning. Finished by 7:30am
GOING STICK: 5.9 Friday 8am (was 6.1 Thursday 7.30am, and 5.8 Wednesday 7.30am).
Watering: 4mm applied to the home straight of the chase course, 2mm applied to home straight of the hurdle track early this morning. Finished by 7:30am
Friday morning update: Partly Cloudy. 20.8mm of rain last week. Friday: Cloudy day with sunny intervals. 13C
Weather: Possible light showers Thursday
Rails: Three bends have been moved. Distances updated
None in the ITV races (Half Track wears the tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination for the first time in the 2.40pm at Perth, but has worn pieces before).
1.50pm Sandown: Thunder Wonder, The Lost King, Tilted Kilt?, San Juanito?
2.05pm Perth: Amateur, Inis Oirr, If Not For Dylan, Prince Des Fichaux
2.25pm Sandown: Arabian Crown, Ancient Wisdom (though you presume one will be tasked to lead)
2.40pm Perth: High Treason?, Wal Buck’s
3pm Sandown: Alcantor, Tamfana (prom), Haatem
3.35pm Sandown: Swagman, Sir Dinadan, Windlord?
Excellent: Olly Murphy (again firing in the winners on Thursday, with a four-timer; on fire)
Good: Andrew Balding, John and Thady Gosden, Ed Walker, David Menuisier, David Simcock, Dan Skelton (treble on Thursday so far), Peter and Michael Bowen (another winner on Tuesday), Ewan Whillans, Simon and Ed Crisford (winner on Thursday), Charlie Appleby, Charlie Hills, Nicky Richards (15-2 winner on Tuesday and another scorer on Thursday; in very good form), Donald McCain (quickly gone from moderate to good after 25-1, 14-1 and 3-1 winners in succession at Bangor on Thursday evening – also had a 14s-9s 1-2 in that race)
Fair: Newland and Insole, Richard Hannon (winner on Wednesday), Ralph Beckett, Charlie Johnston (winner on Thursday), William Knight, Karl Burke, William Haggas, Andre Fabre, Roger Teal (could do with a winner, mind you), Alastair Ralph (borderline moderate), Greenall and Guerriero (7-1 winner on Tuesday), Micky Hammond, Dianne Sayer, Nick Alexander (winner on Wednesday), Harry Eustace (could do with a winner, though),
Moderate: Aidan O’Brien, John McConnell, Lucinda Russell (welcome 7-1 winner at Perth on Wednesday and maybe another unlucky as unseated at last, but still moderate in the main – though another win on Thursday could revise that opinion soon), Nigel Twiston-Davies (11-10 winner on Tuesday though, and last runner beaten a neck – so probably more fair, in truth), Jonjo and AJ O’Neill
Don’t know: John and Rhys Flint, Daragh Bourke, Andrew Crook (one recent winner though from a very small sample)
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Punchestown Is Not In Dublin (0-2mins) Racing Review: UK & France…
2.10pm York – 20/1 Naqeeb has his first start for the in-form Julie Camacho The…
Horse Racing
Greyhounds
Darts
Football
Home