By Tony Calvin - 27 January 2025
On Sunday, Sandown looked set for a very challenging week trying to stage their Grade 1 Saturday fixture if the weather forecast was only half-right.
It was soft at the Esher track (good to soft in places on the chase course) on Sunday morning but it is now heavy on the hurdles course, and soft, heavy in places on the chase circuit, after 18mm in the last 24 hours.
On Sunday, the yr.no weather site was predicting we could get another 3.7mm on Monday, 4.8mm on Tuesday, 20mm on Wednesday, 2.8mm on Thursday and 2.8mm on Friday.
But now that all seems to have largely disappeared – on that site anyway.
That was pretty curious looking at other sites – though the amounts seem to have been downgraded on most, it still looks an exceptionally wet outlook in the main – and out of my study window, as I am only nine or so miles away from Esher and it is absolutely tipping it down again this morning.
And, as 2pm, it has been raining for the last hour or so, with a bit of thunder thrown in, but it looks a bit rosier now (it just all depends on which Wednesday forecast turns up).
On Sunday morning on Twitter, Sandown’s excellent clerk of the course Andrew Cooper raised the possibility of switching to an all-chase card, as they did in 2021 apparently, so watch out for changes to the planned schedule.
But maybe things have now turned a lot more positive for the planned running order to remain, and for racing to go ahead (weather forecasts can and do change wildly, granted, and some certainly suggest Sandown may, and indeed will, struggle).
Cooper added on Sunday: “that one forecast I use has us down for potentially two inches of rain by Thursday, Not sure anyone would survive that in late January, but let’s see what transpires.”
And Musselburgh is possibly looking at testing enough ground on Saturday, too (though it is dry from Thursday onwards, so it may not be too bad for their two-day weekend meeting).
It was good to soft there on Sunday morning, and it surprisingly remains the same as of Monday at 8.44am. They had 14mm over the weekend and 5mm on Monday (presumably up to 8.44am).
They have another possible 12mm landing on Monday, and 6.2mm on Tuesday.
The all-important double entries for Saturday’s eight ITV races are now below (Ireland’s weekend confirmations to follow).
Woe is me.
I was hoping to get to the DRF this weekend but, with ITV racing on Saturday and Sunday as well as The Racing Room podcast preparation for Monday, there really is little point in going.
If you are scribbling away, and simply looking up at the races on the TV, you are hardly going to particularly enjoy it.
It is why I haven’t been to any big meetings or Festivals for yonks. Maybe when I retire later this year, eh…..
You may well as be at home, in your study, in your grundies, with the gin and wine, and jelly sweets, on tap now Dry January is over (or it will be by then, anyway).
And maybe watching the Six Nations live, and recording the racing.
Small-world issues, granted.
No prices yet obviously, but I have thrown down a very early observations below.
The 2m4f10yd Grade 1 Scilly Isles novices’ chase is the headline on the Sandown card (ITV are set to show five races from there), and it has a decent roll call of past recent winners that include Bristol De Mai, Defi Du Seuil, L’Homme Presse and Gerri Colombe, and I loved Nickle Back’s all-the-way win last year.
You never expect a big field for these types of races – which is why it is always a good idea for them not to be early-closers – so a five-day entry in the single figures was pretty much to be expected.
There are seven in the race, but there were actually nine until very close to the noon deadline. It’d be interesting to know who the two late defectors were.
Ireland are responsible for three of the seven, with Impaire Et Passe their top dog (the likely favourite I’d have thought, despite still being in at the DRF along with Search For Glory – see below), but the English quartet have plenty of bite and bark to their challenge.
Jango Baie, Handstands, Kalif Du Berlais, and to a lesser extent Mark Of Gold, all have much to recommend them, and all seven, as you’d expect, are proven in soft and deeper ground.
The 1m7f199yd handicap chase at 2pm has attracted just nine entries – they must have had two very late additions as there were only seven in it at 11.58am on Monday – but, mind you, only five ran in the race last year.
The only early-closer we have in the UK this weekend is the 100k Scottish Champion Chase at Musselburgh at 2.50pm, not that there was any ante-post betting on the race.
It is in fact a handicap, and run over an extended 2m4f, so it is not your traditional Champion Chase….
There were 22 in the race before Monday’s noon confirmation stage and we are now down to 17, so the numbers have held up very well so far (there is a maximum field of 14 on the day).
Those that declined were the following: Hitman, Tommy’s Oscar, Gemirande, Flegmatik and Beau Balko.
Hitman and Tommy’s Oscar initially headed the field, but they are no-shows, so the weights have gone up 6lb, which brought Mr Saxobeat up to a more manageable 9st 11lb (if still 5lb wrong).
There were eight runners when Corrigeen Rock won this race last year by 2 lengths from Thunder Rock and he is back for more off just a 3lb higher mark.
Paul Nicholls has won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at 1.42pm four times since 2016, and there are 10 in here, including Nardaran from Ditcheat.
The 1m7f124yd Scottish County Handicap Hurdle at 2.17pm is another race at this meeting which Nicholls has done well at, winning it three times since 2017.
They are 18 in here, including last year’s winner Afadil for Nicholls.
Plenty of double-entry information to digest and inform your betting when prices appear.
As Exeter on Wednesday has been abandoned, I have altered the double-entries accordingly on Tuesday morning.
A provisional all-chase, six-race card has been created for which entries close at midday on Tuesday. A 2m4f handicap chase, a 1m7f open novice limited handicap chase and a 2m4f novice limited handicap chase have been added.
Sandown clerk of the course Andrew Cooper said to the Racing Post on Monday afternoon: “We wouldn’t have raced here today and on both tracks there is a fairly small proportion of the track that is waterlogged, which is primarily at the bottom of the home straight.
“The track is appreciably better overall on the chase course. Whatever the weather does for the rest of the week, we will be raceable sooner over fences than over hurdles.
“We will give the hurdles course every chance but don’t want to end up in a situation midweek where the weather deteriorates, continues to give us problems with the hurdles track and we’re left with three races and not able to put on a day’s racing.
“Sometimes in the sport we get criticised for a lack of quick thinking and Sandown is fortunate in that the racing surface on the chase course is invariably in better shape, in terms of the usage it gets across the year and the nature of the soil, so it gives us a second option and hopefully the best possible chance of racing on Saturday.”
There is a possibility that the hurdle races could be binned after an 8am inspection on Thursday – there is a lot of uncertainty as to how much rain the course will get throughout Wednesday, and the hurdles’ track is especially vulnerable – but this 2m4f novices’ handicap hurdle has a healthy field of 16.
In Limbo was one of four in here who was due to run at the abandoned Exeter meeting on Wednesday and I can see this stiffer 2m4f test suiting him after shaping well enough over 2m at Newbury last time.
He has a lot of stamina in his pedigree and 14s (and 16s in a place) looks fair enough about this ex-pointer on his handicap debut from a fair, if not generous, opening mark. I‘m not getting involved for now, though.
Only three firms have priced this up.
I couldn’t see any betting angle into this 10-runner Scottish Triumph Hurdle, with the current prices on offer.
Static is the probable form and time angle on his UK efforts so far, but 3s is probably no more than fair given the unexposed nature of the opposition.
But, then again, Harry Derham’s French recruit Maitre En Science could boast even better form credentials (a lot better if the official marks are to be believed, as he is rated a lofty 133), and he has already come in for support from an opening 8s (a top-priced 7/2 now) and holds a Cheltenham Triumph Hurdle entry.
Etalon is available at [9/2] in three places (though effectively one bookmaking outfit) for this nine-runner 1m7f99yd handicap chase, and that struck me as big enough, especially with Martator (as short as 5/2 favourite in places, but 7/2 elsewhere) and Solo holding weekend entries at Musselburgh.
The [9/2] won’t last.
Sans Bruit, Issair d’Airy, Hypotenus and Dr T J Eckleburgh are also now in the standby chases if the hurdle races are called off on Thursday morning,
I’m not totally sold that there has been as much promise in his four runs this season as some would have you believe but he has come down 6lb in the weights for them and he is now only 4lb higher than when slamming Gunsight Ridge by 9 lengths here on soft ground last February.
If this is D-day (or even a positive stepping stone to it), he could do some damage off 135 here, perhaps with a switch back to forcing tactics, too.
It is 6s the field here if you shop around. It’s All About You is a general 8s chance here but he doesn’t appear to be qualified.
Last year’s winner Afadil, from a stable that excels at this meeting, is available at 10s.
I was hugely disappointed by Florida Dreams’ effort in the fog at Aintree last time – I had a good go on him there, so the dejection was purely financial – and surprisingly the handicapper didn’t even drop him 1lb for that.
Perhaps 2m4f in soft ground simply found him out there.
Certainly, if he can put that run behind him, then he is a huge player here on his earlier fifth in the Greatwood off a 1lb higher mark, especially if the ground doesn’t ride too testing as he steps back down to a sub-2m trip.
The forecast suggests it could be a mixture of good to soft and good, which will be A1 for him.
He travelled really well for a long way in the Greatwood, so I reckon he could bounce back here on a track on which he won his bumper.
Again, I have no idea if he is an intended runner – and he is in the big Newbury handicap hurdle on Feb 8 – but he is jocked up already (for what that is worth) and looks the best ante-post play to me this Saturday at 10s (available in three places)
It will be interesting to see if Impaire Et Passe (as big as [7/4] here) and Search For Glory are confirmed for the Dublin Racing Festival on Tuesday afternoon, so I’d hold fire here myself until I know that.
They have both been left in races for the DRF this weekend after Tuesday’s confirmation stage, so will they come here?
One firm puffed their chest out with 8s about Handstands yesterday and presumably got accommodated. He is now 5s, his general price, and as low as [7/2].
UPDATE 6.27pm Wednesday: Impaire Et Passe will not be running at Sandown, which explains the money for Jango Baie in the last 48 hours.
I think this is a very trappy race and I’d be happy to wait until the final field is known.
Certainly nothing stands out to me at the current prices and all firms are betting ¼ the odds 1,2,3 in this 17-strong handicap at the moment.
Each-way punters can expect four places come the day-of-race markets.
This 100k 2m7f+ handicap hurdle is obviously another race in the balance, so we probably should park any deep analysis of it until we see what Mother Nature delivers on Wednesday.
Sole Solution, who ranges from 8s to 12s, doesn’t appear to be qualified for this.
Hermino AA interests me each way at 25s though (available in five places) purely on his Sandown form. This hurdles track on deep ground is one for specialists and his two runs here have seen him finish second, including in this very race last season.
He is 12lb higher here (actually due to go down 1lb in future handicaps), so he has a tough task on given the pounds and ounces, but the ability to act around here counts for plenty, too.
I thought O’Connell was a fair price at 8s in this, though I have no idea if he is an intended runner.
He is clearly progressive, handles 3m and soft ground, and the stable are in good form, too.
He went up 9lb for his Market Rasen win over 3m3f+ last time but he is well equipped to deal with a gruelling stamina test here.
Pats Fancy at 28s is an outsider with some upside, given what looks some favourable handicapping after a lengthy absence. The 33s was taken about him on Monday.
The Dublin Racing Festival confirmations are out for the weekend but I’m happy to revisit those once the final fields are known.
I have no idea what the likes of the mob-handed Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott will run.
Oh, to have an “in” with the Mullins yard as regards probable runners…..
Going – Chase: Soft, heavy in places; Hurdle: Heavy, soft in places
Going stick readings – Chase: 4.0: Hurdle: 3.5
Weather: 4.2mm Friday
Wednesday afternoon course update: “18mm rain Sunday. 6.4mm rain Monday. 2.6mm rain Tuesday. Dry Wednesday to 5pm. Rain likely to remain mainly to the south of Sandown on Wednesday evening but still uncertainty as to northern extent. Thursday dry and bright. Friday rain possible in the morning 3-4mm. Cold night Friday – 0 degrees. Saturday dry.”
Rails: Fresh lines on all bends. Railway flight of Hurdles (4th in Back Straight) will be omitted. Frost covers likely to be deployed on Hill and all fences and hurdles
Going – Good to soft
Going stick readings: N/A
Weather: Light showers, if that
Wednesday course update: “Partly Cloudy. 0mm Tuesday. Wednesday 0-1mm, 7*/0*, cloudy day Thursday 0mm -2mm, 6*/1*, bright sunny day Friday 0-1mm, 8*/ 1*, mixed sunshine and cloud Saturday and Sunday 0.5 – 2mm, 8*/2*, cloudy days”
Wednesday morning course update
GOING:
Soft. , Heavy in places (Hurdle) & Yielding, Yielding to Soft in places (Chase). 8mm rain Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday look settled and cool with sunny spells. Chance of showers overnight into Friday followed by another bright day. Current forecasts suggest cloud will build through Saturday with further spells of rain overnight into Sunday. Temperatures of around 9C and a moderate south westerly breeze. Chase rail is set 5 yards out from the innermost Chase line. Day 1 Hurdle rail is set 22 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 2 Hurdle rail is set 17 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Distances as advertised.
1.25pm Sandown: Grand Geste, Hazy Glen, It’s All About You, Just Lucky Sivola, Lud’or, Sole Solution , Vaguely Royal
1.42pm Musselburgh: Platin Moon
2pm Sandown: Martator, Solo (Sans Bruit, Issair d’Airy, Hypotenus and Dr T J Eckleburgh are also in the standby chases if hurdles are called off on Thursday morning),
2.17pm Musselburgh: Bold Light, Cuban Cigar, It’s All About You (doesn’t look to be qualified), Maghlaak, Ravenscraig Castle, Rewired, Scots Poet, Welsh Charger
NB: Balhambar and Florida Dreams are in Newbury early closer on Feb 8
2.35pm Sandown : Impaire Et Passe, Search For Glory (both have been left in their races at the DRF at the weekend)
2.50pm Musselburgh: Martator, Solo, Arizona Cardinal, Boomslang, Mr Saxobeat, The Kalooki Kid
3.07pm Sandown: Blenkinsop, Fortunedefortunata,, Plaisir Des Flos, Sole Solution (doesn’t look to be qualified, so he will be running in 1.25pm, if anywhere)
NB: Impose Toi is in Newbury early closer on Feb 8
3.42pm Sandown: Arizona Cardinal, Bretney, Dreaming Blue, Eden De Houx, Escaria Ten, Golden Son, Good Boy Bobby (declared to run at Wincanton on Thursday), Gustavian, Passing Well (entered at overnight stage at Lingfield on Friday), Roccovango, Shan Blue (Shan Blue, Eden Du Houx and Gustavian are in the standby chases if hurdles are called off on Thursday morning),
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