TONY CALVIN: MY first real punting day of the week – Thursday’s bets and fancies

The big question on everyone’s lips is how the draw will play out on Thursday.

They watered 5mm on Wednesday night and the revised going stick readings have changed, to the degree that there is now negligible difference between far and near side.

We shall see….

 

2.30pm – Loughnane could be shooting for the Moon again

I have been channeling my inner Kevin Pullein in the 2yo races this week – looking at that Windsor Castle result, I am very glad I have – and I see no reason to change that approach in the Chesham Stakes.

At least there are only 15 runners here.

And not a lot of pace from the limited evidence we have so far (see pace map section below).

Aidan O’Brien supplies the general [7/4] favourite, Curragh winner Aix La Chapelle, in here but, again, it looks a bit of a crap shoot to my eye with so many unknowns (10 of the 15 have only raced once).

And we have a debutant….debutant (ish).

Irish barrier trial promise from 33/1 newcomer

On Just Terms actually makes his debut, Holloway Boy-stylee (winner first time up in this race in 2022), though he shaped very well in a barrier trial over 6f at Naas late last month. Or appeared to – obviously you have to take these with a pinch of salt, to a degree.

However, On Just Terms really was an eyecatcher in that barrier trial after totally blowing the start. He is a general 33s, and that may come in for some speculative interest.

The Justify colt had earlier cost 220,000 guineas at the Breeze-Ups in April and I may actually break my 2yo betting virginity at this meeting at 33s pretty much across the board, win and each-way….

I have posted the barrier trial video on my X account tony_calvin.

On Just Terms is now just 12s as at 11.41am.

There doesn’t look to be a stand-out form-wise going into the race – or on the clock, though 11s chance Aperoll looks to have recorded a decent time when winning at Newbury – but, for what it is worth, I thought Time For The Moon looked an okay-ish price at 6s, and four places is available at those odds for each-way punters.

However, I see he is available at double-figures win-only in the very early (very illiquid) Betfair market, so it is best to wait if you fancy him.

He was obviously impressive when a wide-margin winner at Musselburgh less than a fortnight ago, and he could be one of those who looks to rock and roll from stall 12 (the stalls are in the centre again, so who knows where the 15 horses will head across the track?).

But it looks like 6s is at least four points too low (though he is now 15/2 as at 6pm).

He is now 12s as at 7.27am on Thursday. I hope you didn’t take the 6s….

 

3.05pm – “Hello, Richard Brown here…” 

There is a reason why Royal Ascot races are so hard to win – because they are bloody impossible!

Exhibit Number 16 of the meeting – the 19-runner 3yo 1m4f King George Handicap.

Any bet I have here is going to be small and my current lean is for Ralph Beckett’s Tierra Del Toro (he also has a fair shout with Joulany) at 8s and [15/2].

In fact, I have upgraded the small to decent.

If I hear “X has been targeted at this race” on TV once more this week.. – well I’ll moan because I am grumpy bastard –  but Wathnan Racing really do set their stall out for this meeting, with the chequebook very much to the fore.

Tierra Del Toro is not copper-bottomed on stamina for this 1m4f test on pedigree, but the manner in which he finished off his race to finish third in the perennially-hot 1m2f London Gold Cup last time suggests it is well worth trying (he went up 2lb for that but that is fair enough).

Wathnan clearly liked what they saw at Newbury as they bought him afterwards, as well as the first two – owners must be overjoyed when hearing chief purchaser Richard Brown at the end of the phone, as it means a very good holiday at the very least is in the offing  – and, for all this colossally competitive, I think he is a fair each-way shout at 8s and [15/2], with extra place (s) available for the lucky souls.

I’d have liked to have an even higher draw than 10, but that’ll do. He is currently weak in Betfair’s very lightly-traded market as at 7.28am, trading at 12.0.

 

3.40pm  – Surprised to see Gilded Prize rated so highly

Legacy Link clearly bumped into an exceptional filly in Thundering On in the Oaks , with six lengths back to the third, so I was rather surprised to see Gilded Prize on the same official mark of 111 as her.

Primarily because I had never heard of her!

I won’t beat myself up about that because she got stuffed in a Group 3 at Longchamp last month, only beating Composing (re-opposes here in first-time blinkers), but her previous win in that grade in April does look a bit tasty.

She beat Warriors Whisper (also in here) by an emphatic 3 1/2 lengths there and I was going to say the official soft ground at Longchamp may have explained that subsequently underwhelming effort, but Timeform called it good.

Anyway, one of the other fillies are going to have to raise their game significantly to win this.

Earth Shot the likeliest lass against the front two

The market says [11/2] Earth Shot is the likeliest lass – did I say her owners Wathnan Racing like to target this meeting? – and that is easy to see as her narrow second to Inis Mor at Goodwood last time was franked when the winner finished third in the French Oaks at the weekend.

I wouldn’t be sold on her stamina myself but I suppose the dam did win a Group 3 over 1m6f.

In summary, I couldn’t see a particularly enticing bet at the current odds.

I’ll sleep on it.

I have – no bet. Legacy Link is now 6/4 tops, with AKBets.

 

4.15pm – 17/2 Al Riffa definitely has the class to win , if the stamina holds

AKBets are top price about everything here.

Can The Baby Faced Assassin, with three (make that four) wins already to his name this week, stage another giant-killing act here? (though with 210 horses and more money than Croesus, if not his Dad, he is already a racing giant himself, and I am not taking the piss there – what a talent).

His old man will hope he doesn’t net another winner here, and neither will John Gosden , who it sounds like is not a big fan of the Irish coming over here mob-handed and nicking all our big races….

More of Joseph O’Brien’s Al Riffa in a moment, but I am definitely against Scandinavia at [7/4] and the will-he-won’t-he run-up to the race for Trawlerman makes him a questionable bet at [7/2].

Aunties and uncles and all that, but if last year’s 7-length winner had had a smooth prep, then you could reverse their prices.

And maybe even back him at [7/4].

I am not really tempted by Rahiebb at an across-the-board 4s either, so Al Riffa could be worth chancing at 17/2 in a place and a general 8s.

Of course, you can’t be blase about him staying half a mile further than he has ever gone before, but in terms of raw talent he is firmly in the mix here, as a three-time Group 1 winner with any number of cracking runs in defeat on his dance card, including when second to Rebel’s Romance in the Hardwicke here last season.

He only lost out in a three-way photo to Caballo De Mar in France last time, and he is worth chancing at the odds.

TBFA will have targeted him at this race, I reckon….

And I can’t believe he opened up at a generally available 14s after the final field was known; you could argue the value has already been squeezed out of his price, but the 17/2 and 8s will do me for a small-stakes win-only interest, though.

After an exceptionally quiet punting time of it on the first two days, I am getting far more stuck in on Thursday.

Rahiebb is very weak at 13/2 as at 7.33am.

 

4.50pm – 10/1 Moonfall to confirm that Chester promise

And the outrageous punting puzzles keep on coming….

I won’t keep you long with this 30-runner handicap and little wonder it is 9s the field. In fact we have co-favs of three at the best available odds, with another couple at 10s, before we get a slew of runners at 12s and downwards.

But, in common with many, I didn’t miss the run of Moonfall at Chester last month and I have backed him at 10s each way, with extra places.

With a clear run and perhaps a touch more urgency from the saddle, he may have won that Chester race – trainer and owner won it anyway with the smashed-up 13/8 favourite McMurray – and he can race off the same mark here.

He is a half-brother to the 2024 Sandringham winner Soprano, I like his draw in 28 and jockey Zac Lloyd has looked okay since coming up from Australia.

Of course, this cavalry charge will be a baptism of fire for both jockey and the lightly-raced horse, and you will need oodles of luck in running in this too, but Chester told me (and others) that a mark gives him every chance here.

In a stable tour on April, Boughey namechecked this race – it looks like he has been aimed at it…

He is currently [16.0] on Betfair as at 7.34am, so I have had another little bit there win-only.

 

5.35pm – Endorsement may have had a big chance in the Derby

Every time I read about the Hampton Court Stakes, the juvenile in me always thinks of the Carry On line – Hampton Caught – but it could be that the bookmakers will have their trousers taken down here as the [9/4] favourite Endorsement looks the one to beat, all right.

This horse was left in the Derby at the five-day stage but they decided to go to Leopardstown with him two days before Epsom instead.

And, boy, was he impressive in powering to a 7-length win over 1m4f.

Sure, he was 4s-on but he thumped an 96-rated stablemate and I just wonder if O’Brien regretted not waiting and letting the horse take his shot at the big prize 48 hours later.

I thought the win was every bit as impressive as his earlier narrow third to Derby third James J Braddock over this 1m2f trip at Leopardstown, or his second to a certain Christmas Day, also  over 1m2f, prior to that, and I can see him taking plenty of whacking here.

I actually don’t think the general [9/4] is that bad a price, as he could smash these up, presumably under an aggressive ride.

I have had a rare bet at short odds for me.

 

6.10pm – Blue Brother may win – but it’ll still be a year too late

I think I’ll raise the betting white flag for this 29-runner 7f handicap, though I was tempted by Blue Brother, mainly because I have previous with him.

That was in the Hunt Cup last season (he got balloted out of that race on Wednesday).

I got some big prices about him, and then the gamble further gathered apace as he was punted from 18s to 13/2 on the show.

He may have got a slow start and met trouble thereafter but James McDonald was probably the least animated I have ever seen a jockey at a big meeting, making no effort to look for gaps (I said yesterday he resembled a corpse strapped to a horse in a Western), and the horse finished on the bridle.

Beaten 11 lengths, but even so.

He is 2lb lower here, and I suspect he is very well handicapped, and I think I have to have a score on him at 9s just in case.

I like his draw in 28, and James Doyle takes over on the horse’s first start for Hamad El Jehani.

So I have half-raised the white flag…

Good luck on Thursday; it’s my first real punting day of the week.

 

BEST BETS (I can move a price….)

Tierra Del Toro at 8/1 and 15/2 each way in 3.05pm (get best each-way terms you can) – now available at a general 10s

Al Riffa win-only, small-stakes, at 17/2 and 8/1 in 4.15pm – now available at a general 10s

Moonfall at 10/1 each way in 4.50pm (get best each-way terms you can) – now available at 11s (have personally pressed up at 16.0 on Betfair too)

Endorsement at [9/4] win-only in 5.35pm

 

ROYAL ASCOT STATS/INFO 

 

1.COURSE DETAILS (watered 5mm again on Wednesday evening)

Going: Good to firm

Stands side: 8.8, Centre: 8.7, Farside: 8.7. Round: 7.5.

Soil Moisture: 41%

Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

yr.no weather (6.59am Thursday): ; dry and sunny 26-28 rest of week

 

2.BALLOTED OUT RUNNERS (get your money back)

3.05pm: Who’s Lope, Charles Darnay, Bnaider, Baltic Fleet, Hatteen, Cranachan, Outback Legend

4.50pm:  Synners Kid, Wild Thoughts, Elan d’Or, Loz Vegas, God of Power, Alfaraz, Shipbourne, Invincible Will, Startled Malachy’s Wish, Factual, Euston Hall, King’s Trust, Tailgunner Joe,  Savvy Disko, Vidmiyr (Winding Stream gets a run as Bobby McGee was an early NR)

6.10pm: Houquetot, Back In Black, Mudbir, Ardisia Hawksbill, Lakers, Supido, Tribal Chief, Superposition, Silver Ghost, Croupier, Akkadian Thunder, Super Soldier, Divine Libra, Christian David,  Brian, Release The Storm, Angel Hunter, Humam, Al Arbeed, Candonomore, Best Rate, Frankies Dream, Dapper Guest, Glenfinnan

 

3.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

John and Thady Gosden blinkers; Guildmaster, 3,05pm; 16-85 (since 2021)

Aidan O’Brien blinkers; Composing, 3.40pm 60-362 (2009)

Ralph Beckett blinkers; Golden Orbit, 3.40pm; 39-280 (2009)

John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces;  Organise, 4.50pm & My Love Is King, 5.35pm; 15-143 (2021)

Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces; Flushing Meadows, 4.50pm; 15-122 (2016)

Jamie Osborne blinkers; Room Service 6.10pm; 8-96 (2009)

 

 

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

2.30pm (very limited evidence):  Revels (drawn 2) Sword Salute (1), Time For The Moon (12)

3.05pm: Joulany (2), Atomic City (6), Golden Knight (22), Genchev (1), Galilean Quality (16), Blue Hercules (3)

3.40pm: Brilliant Star (2), Composing (8), Dark Lucinda (10), Earth Shot (6), Gilded Prize (3), Johanna Walsh (7), Venetia (11) , Warriors Whisper (4)

4.15pm: Trawlerman (2), Furthur (6)

4.50pm: Conclave (29), Richie’s Rocket (31), Charly (4), Blue Courvoisier (1), Noelan Star (17), Outback Heat (18), New Monarch (13), Vincenzo Peruggia (12), Crest Of Fire (5), Moonfall (28), Lion Of Alba (32), Exclusive Code (3), Winding Stream (24 – reserve) – Bobby McGee is a NR

5.35pm: Oxagon (2), Endorsement (7), Generic (3), Maho Bay (1), Mountain Cat (9)

6.10pm:  Golden Mind(22), Elarak (31), River King (14) , Stratusnine (13)

 

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: John And Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Ed Walker, Hamad El Jehani, James Ferguson, William Knight, James Owen (three winners on Wednesday), Andrew Balding,  Owen Burrows, Roger Varian,  Ger Lyons (going great guns), Jack Channon, James Fanshawe, Eve Johnson Houghton, Richard Spencer, Joseph O’Brien (four winners on week already – phenomenal).

Fair: Charles Hills, Harry Eustace, Karl Burke (fair/good), Hugo Palmer, Clive Cox,  George Scott,  F-H Graffard  (Tuesday winner at Ascot), Henry De Bromhead, Daniel and Claire Kubler,  Charlie Johnston, Harry Charlton, David O’Meara, Paddy Twomey, Richard and Peter Fahey, Jane Chapple-Hyam, C and Y Lerner, Ed Dunlop,  J A Stack, Rod Millman, Ralph Beckett (fair/good), David Marnane, George Boughey, Ed Bethell (evens winner on Monday and another on Wednesday),  Tom Dascombe (coming back into a bit of form), Richard Hannon

Moderate: Brian Meehan, Archie Watson, Charlie Fellowes , Kevin Ryan,  Ian Williams (5-2 winner at Ffos Las on Wednesday night broke a big losing run),  Kevin Philippart De Foy (did have a recent 14-1 winner),  Dylan Cunha (recent winner),  Johnny Murtagh (fair/moderate),  Jamie Osborne, Muir and Grassick,  Tom Clover

Don’t know: Henry Dwyer, Niels Petersen (had a winner), Saeed bin Suroor, Clement and Hermans, Oli Rix