TONY CALVIN: ROYAL ASCOT Day One bets and angles – and there are plenty of them…

2.30pm Ascot – 11/1 Lake Forest offers a different formline but 13/2 each way Dancing Gemini isn’t a bet I’d lay

I’ve no problem with anyone saying the Lockinge could be the key trial for this race but how do you unpick that contest?

Lead Artist claimed Dancing Gemini by a neck late on there, with Rosallion 2 ¼ lengths away, just edging out Notable Speech for third by a short-head.

The betting suggests the latter pair, having their first outings of the season (unlike the first two home) are expected to make big inroads here, and in fact overtake them in the case of last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes winner Rosallion (who is two from two here), who heads the market at [9/4] with AKBets, and four others.

I rarely mention my host in these columns but I’ll make an exception for Royal Ascot, as they are going to bet the first four races hard, price-wise, each day (they bet to standard each-way terms) and they will basically be bold type on Oddschecker for most of the runners in those contests.

So take a swing if you are so minded.

However, even that [9/4] about Rosallion seems a little too short, for all the love surrounding him from connections.

On what we saw at Newbury, Dancing Gemini is the overpriced one of the quartet at [13/2] – that looks a fair trade and, yes, it is with AKBets, but I’ll stop now (just assume they are the best price) – but I am very much inclined to look for other strands of form to try to unearth  the winner.

Basically, I am going to ignore the Lockinge form for betting purposes, as I think if you back one, you could easily back all four at their respective prices.

If that makes sense.

I could fully see the case for Sardinian Warrior – well, until he got taken out at 4.29pm on Monday anyway, as he was “off colour” (no, I haven’t got a clue what that means either).

I think win-only is the way to go in this race, and the main bet is Lake Forest at [11/1] in a place. and 10s (13.5 on Betfair).

Pre the above’s withdrawal, he actually opened up at 16s, paying four places each way, with three firms on Sunday morning, which didn’t last long obviously, but back to the case that I am just about to make for William Haggas’ 4yo.

His overall level of form gives him 7lb to officially find with Rosallion and Notable Speech on their 3yo form, but the obvious angle with him is the step up to a mile for the first time.

The important course form box is ticked on account of his strong-finishing second to Inisherin in the 6f Commonwealth Cup last year, after which he again shaped as though a longer trip was needed when second in the Hackwood Stakes, with Group 1 sprinters Regional and Kind Of Blue immediately in behind.

That race was in mid-July and we didn’t see him until November, when he reappeared Down Under and proceeded to beat Lazzat in the 7f110yd Golden Eagle at Rosehill in Australia, netting a rather tasty £2.8m in the process for his struggling owners Tony Bloom and Ian McAleavy.

Lazzat won by 5 ½ lengths on his reappearance and is [7/2] favourite for the Jubilee Stakes on Saturday, by the way.

Lake Forest looked a little bit awkward during his reappearance fourth to the hugely talented Topgear over 7f in France last month – I actually thought they may have considered headgear here – but the way he finished off his race once straightened up augured well for his chances of staying the stiff mile here, maybe even relishing it.

Lake Forest is my main play then – I’ve had a fair-ish bet on him – though that [13/2] each way Dancing Gemini is half-tempting. It’s a hugely competitive, deep race though, so I won’t be going mad on the stakes front.

In fact, my bet has just got bigger as he has drifted to [20.0] on Betfair at 11.30am , so I have pressed up.

3.05pm Ascot – 9/1 Andab’s price left port just before 5pm yesterday when Taylor chimed in

I was Hugh Taylored-here just before 5pm on Monday – but more of that in a moment.

I am not sure how healthy it is for Wathnan Racing to be carpet-bombing this meeting with expensive new purchases – not that punters could give a stuff, and those connected in the relevant sales are laughing all the way to the bank, so maybe no-one cares and I shouldn’t either – but they have the current two lively ones in this in a current weak [13/2] poke Postmodern  and 12s chance Underwriter.

To be fair to Wathnan (and their racing manager Richard Brown does come across well in interviews, being pretty open, unlike some others), Postmodern won in their colours when dotting up by 5 lengths at Yarmouth last month, as did their £200,000 breeze-up purchase Underwriter when successful at Ayr, so the pre-Ascot cheque book wasn’t needed here.

Of course both have plausible claims, after one run and one win, but we are dealing with 21 runners here, spread across the track on what will be lightning-fast ground, and none of them have raced more than three times (Do Or Do Not is the only maiden in the field, with 12 of these unbeaten).

This race has thrown up shocks at [150/1] and [80/1] in recent years, and I’d be inclined to look away from the top of the market if you want an interest.

Any bet I have had, or will, won’t be significant, that is for sure, but Andab looked a fair enough price at 18s and 16s on Monday morning.

That ebbed away during the day and then the aforementioned Taylor got involved yesterday afternoon, and the remaining 12s became 9s, which remains in three places as this goes live.

A hugely impressive 4 ¾ length winner on his debut from a subsequent scorer (in fact that horse was Gavoo, who also goes in here and has been nibbled, too), he then finished third to Albert Einstein (would have been a hot favourite for this had he not sprained a joint after that win) and Power Blue in a Group 3 next time, despite apparently having had a small hold-up in his preparation.

And he was a bit keen early doors that day, too.

He has ¾ length to make up with Power Blue here, as well as having to deal with 19 others, so he is clearly up against it.

But I like his draw in 20 next to the stands side rail (Postmodern is next door in 19) and hopefully this stiff 6f will play to his staying strengths. And it sounds as if he may be better than he showed last time.

Let’s face it though, this is a bit of a crap shoot and I have to underline the stick readings below (they will be updated at 8.30am each day) suggest the stands’ side is currently the slowest ground (see below).

Of course, that may change, as they are continuing to water, but it is definitely something to consider.

I’ve actually backed Andab at 16s, to be truthful and transparent (or rather someone did on my behalf, if that is still allowed), but without any real oomph, but his price left port yesterday afternoon when the main man got involved.

Windsor winner American Gulf, from a stable in cracking form, was the other horse shortened through yesterday. He is now 8s, having begun Monday as big as 14s in places.

Tricky Tel is a NR at11.53am (lame).

3.40pm Ascot – Hoping the ante-post play on the Mgheera cat gets the cream but 8/1 Night Raider could be hard to catch

I have been nibbling away at Mgheera for this race ever since she defied a staggering drift to win at Haydock last time – a (rare) case of my insistence of going in again (and again) as the price got bigger bearing juicy fruit – but I must admit I would have rather she wasn’t meeting 22 rivals here and her price hadn’t been clipped into 9s (in four places) and a general 8s.

The last price I stopped backing her at for this was 12s and I have to admit I have no interest in pressing on her at current odds.

On the plus side, I like her draw in eight (right next to Night Raider, more of him shortly, and with stablemate Balmoral Lady nearby too if the ground allows her to run) and I have been royally impressed by her since she joined Ed Walker.

She was as smooth as silk when winning on her debut for the strapping, lofty, imposing, fine head-of-hair Walker – guilty of hair envy here, M’Lud – at Longchamp last month (Timeform called the ground good to firm), and I thought she did exceptionally well to win the Temple Stakes at Haydock last time.

I started backing her at [9/2] for that contest and, incredibly, I was able to press up as big as 16s on Betfair at one stage, and she won very snugly there with a late run on the stands’ side.

You can’t rate her ½-length beating of the 105-rarted She’s Quality too highly and she has no Ascot experience, which is a concern, but sometimes you are simply taken by performances, and I have been by Mgheera’s.

If she drifts back out to 12s anywhere (and she is currently 12.0 on Betfair), I suggest you have a small tickle. I’m hoping a proper blast-up will suit this closer.

For the purposes of this column, I think Night Raider is a shade overpriced at a current 8s on the fixed-odds front with AKBets (that’s a stand-out price, by the way).

Now, he finished last here in the Jersey last season but he was blistering from the front when winning over 6f at Newcastle last November (there used to be a time when all-weather form was considered a positive at Ascot, but I am not sure it still is?) and he again showed scorching speed over 6f on his return at York before weakening late on behind Inisherin and Flora Of Bermuda.

You have to think the drop back to 5f for the first time will suit his serious speed, and a make-all scenario could be on the cards.

You have to concede both he and Mgheera are up against it on official ratings – Believing, in foal to Frankel, is just about the pick of these weights – but both have upside in them.

I’ve backed both, with Mgheera by far the more serious bet.

Bucanero Fuerte is a NR as of 8.35am (temperature), as is No Half Measures (not eaten up, but imagine the ground had a lot to do with that lack of appetite) at 8.42am.

4.20pm – No way I’d lay Field Of Gold but 11/1 Rashabar in the without favourite market appeals

One more runner and everyone is backing Rashabar each way…

Unfortunately, aunties and uncles, we only have the sleepy seven and no firms are offering three places (rightly so), and one of the three Guineas winners will have to underperform for last year’s Coventry winner to get on the podium anyway.

However, I’ll be looking at the without favourite (s) market for Rashabar when they all come out shortly. You have to go from site to site looking for them now as Oddschecker have stopped publishing those lines for some reason.

At the moment, I have seen 11s about Rashabar without the jolly , and [11/2] without Field Of Gold and Ruling Court, and I am going to see if I can get my hands on that.

I am not mentioning the firm in question obviously, so you will have to go trawling yourself.

Not a betting heat for me then in the main win-only market, but I don’t think I’d be inclined to lay the Irish 2,000 scorer Field Of Gold at a best [3/4]- yes, I know.

I appreciate Ruling Court beat him at Newmarket, but I suspect his price is going one way, not that second-guessing the market these days is advised.

And to underline that, he has currently gone the opposite way in the market as to what I was expecting – he is [1.94] as at 11.30am.

He looks a bit of a weapon to me but Rashabar could chase him home at a price.

The Coventry winner was just touched in two Group 1s afterwards, and he was a perfectably respectable fourth to Field Of Gold in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, which his ever-bullish trainer believes he can build on.

5pm – Win-only darts on Dawn Rising and Artistic Star in exchange land

A full field of 20 for this 2m3f210yd handicap – see below for the balloted-out, money-back horses in the last three races – and it isn’t a heat I have had a bet in yet.

And I possibly won’t.

The [7/2] favourite Reaching High could take a lot of whacking for Chuck and Cammy.

Even over this trip, you could get hard luck stories in this though, and one of those could be the 8yo Dawn Rising under a hold-up ride from trap 19, but maybe [28/1] is a fair risk-to-reward each-way bet, even if he comes here after finishing stone-last in the Chester Cup last time.

That was surely a write-off though, from his wide draw after a tardy start, and we know he has the Royal Ascot pedigree to shine off a mark of 100 here.

He won the Queen Alexandra in 2023, and he finished third in that race last year – both on good to firm ground – and he was rated 108 after a good third in the Irish Cesarewitch in 2023.

There is obviously a lot of guesswork as to his current well-being, and a first-time tongue tie at the age of eight could be seen as more of a negative than a potential positive (maybe he has had a recent wind op, which we know nothing of, as I am not entirely certain Irish trainers have to declare them still, even when coming over here).

But, as SSR’s Jim McGrath will undoubtedly say if covering this race, we know he stays longer than the mother-in-law – unlike fellow top weight Artistic Star, last year’s King Edward VIII third, who also interests me in here at 40s – and he could well be coming home high, wide and handsome under Declan McDonogh.

On reflection, I am probably going to back Dawn Rising and Artistic Star win-only on Betfair (currently 40.0 and 80.0 as this is published) but it is a minimal-stakes affair for me, and the latter’s stamina is an obvious concern. He is well handicapped if he lasts home, though.

I can hardly recommend them as selections given the total lack of depth in that Betfair market, though. You may have to chip away for a while to get a score matched at around those prices.

5.35pm – 10/1 Torito to carry on the family first-time headgear angle perhaps

The Real Slim Thady Gosden was spot on when he said this “looks to be the most competitive Listed race staged in Europe this year.”

Now, a maximum-field 16-runner Wolferton is also a race where you can see in-running bumper cars and carnage, and this race is already incredibly tight-knit on official ratings to begin with.

Even with factoring in the penalties for the top four, a mere 9lb separates all 16 here – and, taking out Galen under his 5lb burden, you can make that 4lb between 15 – so this is another tricky ole’ race, all right.

Enfjaar and Sons And Lovers have been the talked-about horses in what has presumably been a light ante-post betting heat and, even though they are actually two of the lowest-rated in here, you can see the case for both.

Big Rog has trained the winner of this race twice in recent seasons and his Enfjaar shaped well on his return in the Brigadier Gerard, while Sons And Lovers probably ran a near career-best when fourth to Los Angeles, White Birch and Trustyourinstinct at the Curragh last time.

That is strong Group 2 form coming back into Listed company.

That pair are drawn one and two respectively though, so luck will play a huge role if they are to win – though, Sons And Lovers was ridden prominently for his previous trainer (has had just two starts for Joseph) – and they are priced up at [11/2] and [6/1].

The latter’s price has tumbled to a leave-alone price unfortunately (I was looking to get with him), while the former has drifted from 4s. And was [10.0] on Betfair at 11.30am.

This race clearly has a lot of depth to it – I could also see why there was early morning for Torito early on Monday afternoon at 14s downwards in first-time pieces, as the whole family, who Dad Gozza knows very well is quirky and his dam won twice in the headgear – so I was torn.

The new accoutrements for Torito are undeniably interesting.

Not only did his dam win twice in them, his siblings Journey, Indigo Girl and Mimikyu all improved significantly for headgear (all Gosden horses and in their case, a hood brough about their progress) and Torito has solid Royal Ascot form, having finished fourth in Hampton Court in 2023 and third to Israr  in this race last season.

He has drifted out to [20.0] on Betfair as at 11am, so I have gone in again.

Any improvement on that and he is a fair runner at 10s. I’ve backed him, but nothing meaty. You can genuinely make a form case for all of these.

6.10pm – 12/1 My Mate Mozzie bids to go two places better than last year

The Gosdens and Wathnan Racing have another big chance here with French Master, bought the owners from Normadie Stud after he overcame a lot of trouble in running to win at Goodwood last time.

One of the positives from that acquisition is that James Doyle takes over from Rab Havlin.

Sorry, Rab.

John Gosden mentioned recently he had liked to have gelded him (the horse, not Havlin or Doyle) before this (maybe he was joking), but he settles for blinkers instead in the timeframe allowed and it is not hard to see him going close here off just a 4lb higher mark.

But he is a mere [11/4] chance and that looks cramped, as does the [11/2] about Willie Mullins’ Charlus.

I think you have to oppose those two, even if that does not entail directly laying them and simply looking elsewhere.

Gavin Cromwell has an uncanny knack of priming his horses at big Festivals and his My Mate Mozzie looks interesting enough under a 5lb claimer some are raving about.

I don’t have an opinion on Warren Fentiman myself and his strike rate is nothing to write home abou. This is just his second ride at Ascot too, but presumably Cromwell (and this is his debut ride for him) is impressed enough to book him.

We last saw My Mate Mozzie disappointing when 4s favourite for the Red Rum in April but he finished a good third in this race last season, having previously run at Cheltenham in March, so you assume he has been freshened up and geared up for this.

He lost his race coming around the final bend last year – he totally lost his pitch – and I reckon Fentiman will have been told to be alive to the horse potentially hitting that flat spot once again.

He stays further than 1m6f, so more use could be made of his proven stamina from trap six here.

However, he was 18s and 16s when I first looked at this race, and he is now just 12s in two places.

I’ll juvenile sulk and hope he drifts back out – no bet for now – which he may do as he trades at [16.5] on the machine.

 

ROYAL ASCOT INFORMATION – updated on Tuesday morning

Going: Good to firm, good in places (anticipating good to firm for racing)

Going stick: Stands side: 8.3, Centre: 8.3, Farside: 8.6. Round: 7.3 (Tuesday 8.30am)

Forecast: Dry, warm and hot.

Soil Moisture: 38%.  Readings taken on Monday 16th June at 8.30am. Goingstick and moisture readings will now be taken daily by 8.30am

Tuesday morning course update: Dry over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Tuesday. 0.4mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. It is forecast be dry and warm through to the end of the week. Max temps forecast to be 26c today through to 28c later in the week. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing

Watering: Watered straight course 6mm on Straight on Monday and 5mm on Round course Monday night. Watered 10mm on the straight course last Saturday,Thursday and Tuesday. Watered 5mm on round course on Sunday and Saturday nights and 3mm on Thursday night and Tuesday nights. The current plan for the week is to water each night to replace moisture lost through evapotranspiration.

Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday

• 4:20pm:Race distance is now +7y to 1m
• 5:00pm:Race distance is now +14y to 2m 4f 4y
• 5:35pm:Race distance is now +14y to 1m 2f 6y
• 6:10pm:Race distance is now +14y to 1m 6f 48y

Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside

 

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (make sure you get your money back on these)

 

5pm: Lieber Power, Trooper Bisdee, Alcaraz, Vischio, Ndaawi, Too Bossy For Us, Mordor, Robbies Rock, Scottish Anthem, Vaguely Royal, Godsend, Contacto, Tritonic, Youthful King, Common Practice, Brave Knight, Caprelo, Molten Sea

5.35pm: Alcaraz, Ancient Rome, Caviar Heights, Cloud Seeker, Fox Legacy, Savvy Victory, Thunder Run

6.10pm –  HMS President, Pappano, Crystal Flyer, Imperial Sovereign, Gentleman Joe, Kildare Legend,  Master Builder, Zoffee, Insanity, Alphonse Le Grande, Small Fry, Plage de Havre, Oneforthegutter, Great Bedwyn, Knightswood, Creatif, Fox Journey, Lieber Power, Story Horse, Scottish Anthem

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

Alice Haynes visor – Cairo, 2.30pm; 1-34

Archie Watson cheekpieces – Tadej, 3.05pm; 27-293

Clive Cox hood – Jasour, 3.40pm; 8-55

Henry Dwyer blinkers – Asfoora, 3.40pm (no idea – any Aussie readers with any stats, get in touch)

Charlie Johnston cheekpieces – Align The Stars, 5pm; 1-38

John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces – Torito, 5.35pm; 44-319 (includes Big John alone stats, too)

John and Thady Gosden blinkers – French Master, blinkers, 6.10pm; 55-399 (ditto)

Alan King visor; HMS President, visor 6.10pm; 7-37 (Flat only)

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed) – with draws, as requested

2.30pm: Qudwaah (7), Cairo (11)

3.05pm (very little evidence to go on so just included those who have led/front-run): Kolkata Night (3), Andab (20), Military Code (15), Postmodern (19), Power Blue (9), Raakeb (4), Shaatir (12), Tadej (13)

3.40pm: Bucanero Fuerte (2), Night Raider (7), Regional (17), Washington Heights (11), Balmoral Lady (4), Frost At Dawn (15), Aesterius (9), Tropical Storm (prom) (19)

4.20pm: Rashabar (prom) (6), Officer (pacemaker?) (7), First Wave (prom) (3), Windlord (pacemaker?) (4)

5pm: Artistic Star (9), Divine Comedy (5), San Salvador (12), Align The Stars (13), East India Dock? (18), Liari (15), Zoffee (8), Leinster (17), Mr Hampstead (7)

5.35pm: Galen (9), Ambiente Friendly? (3), Ecureuil Secret (8), Haatem (5), Doha (6)

6.10pm (reserves not included): Endless Victory (14), Fairbanks (19), Lavender Hill Mob (13), Caballo De Mar (9), Champagne Prince (16)

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; includes those whose horses were balloted out – Sunday/Monday winners highlighted where I think relevant)

Excellent: Paul and Oliver Cole (smallish sample, but 3 from 9 and another two beaten in photos), Willie Mullins (superb form), Paul Nicholls

Good: Aidan O’Brien, William Haggas, John and Thady Gosden, Charlie Appleby, Andrew Balding (very good), Hugo Palmer, Jonathan Portman (another winner on Monday), George Boughey (very good), James Owen, James Ferguson (very good), Gary and Josh Moore, Roger Varian

Fair: Alice Haynes, Roger Teal, Harry Eustace (welcome winners on Saturday and Sunday), Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Hannon, Joseph O’Brien, Ollie Sangster, Ed Walker, David Marnane, Hamad Al Jehani (small sample), Adrian Murray, Kevin Ryan, Archie Watson (coming into form), Jim Goldie (winners on Sunday), Ed Bethell, Ralph Beckett (moderate for him but a winner on Monday), William Knight, Richard Hughes, Jane Chapple-Hyam, George Scott (bordering on moderate), Karl Burke, Charlie Johnston, Michael Bell, Jessie Harrington, Tony Martin (40-1 and 11-2 winners on Sunday), Raphael Freire, Sir Mark Prescott, Gordon Elliott, Gavin Cromwell, Alan King, Luke Dace, Hughie Morrison, Charles Hills, Andrew Slattery (winner on Sunday), Richard Fahey, Harry Charlton, Saeed bin Suroor (probably nearer good given small sample), Ian Williams (maybe nearer moderate), Noel Meade (winner on Sunday), Philip Kirby, Henry De Bromhead, David O’Meara, Tom Dascombe (ended quiet spell with a 100-30 winner on Sunday), Clive Cox (very welcome winner on Monday evening)

Moderate: Brian Meehan,  Richard Spencer, Mauricio Delcher Sanchez (from what I have seen anyway), Anthony Charlton, Sean Woods, Natalia Lupini, Tom Ward, David Menuisier

Don’t know: Ciaron Maher (guesswork obviously but it looks modest), John Ryan, Henry Dwyer, Mario Baratti (tiny sample but two recent runners, two winners), Fabrice Chappet (looks okay), Emmet Mullins, William Durkan