By Tony Calvin - 20 June 2025
I was struggling to come up with a piss-take angle this morning.
Normally, I focus on my own shortcomings at these times, as there are plenty of them and I am not averse taking the rise out of myself, but thankfully fellow early-riser Neil Channing provided me with suitable ammo.
Talking of early-risers, perhaps we should reprise the old 3am column in the Daily Mirror in a different non-party guise for punting insomniacs, Neil…
Now, I’ve known the scruffy, lefty bastard – except when he is fitting in very nicely on Nick Luck’s right-wing Sunday sofa, which I am told is nicknamed “Jenrick” – for a while, but when strolling down his timeline to find the post I wanted to talk about this morning – Jesus, does this man retweet some level of shite, outside of his views on Gaza, on which we are as one, as should everyone be- it occurred to me that I’ve never clocked that he calls himself Sensei on the good ship X.
Now, a quick google tells me Sensei means a teacher in martial arts (I typed in darts there originally, and martial darts would make good viewing, it has to be said, Mr Hearn), and then it suddenly dawned on me on this is probably a throwback to his stint as the owner of Black Belt Poker.
God, I can be very slow to that 3am party.
Anyway, I finally found the post in question, which was in response to Paul Kealy’s tweet.
The Spudpicker (and don’t worry he calls himself that, and Bogtrotter etc, before anyone has a pop – he is working towards a sense of humour now he is 57) posted: “Not a single horse has run up the stands’-side today, when the jockeys couldn’t get enough of it yesterday and today’s Going Stick reading suggested it was still faster! Go figure.”
To which the commie, who was very vexed throughout the afternoon on this subject and probably rightly so, in all seriousness, replied: “I think we have to conclude that punters have been lied to, the bookmakers have had a bonanza day and racing has had a huge windfall via the levy.”
Channing is still at it this morning, I see.
Now, that is a serious accusation – if you don’t do sarcasm or have a sense of humour, that is, which sadly many in horse racing don’t.
My column yesterday apparently went down like Mike Parry’s Cinnamon Challenge in places, but at least that reference led me to watch that hilarious video once again (google it – it is worth 107 seconds of your time).
And, as luck (no not him again, he is busy) would have it – I don’t just knock up this part of the column up in about 20 minutes with no prep (actually I do) – Parry calls for “water” after throwing the cinnamon down his neck.
Perhaps he had a horse running on the far side on Friday.
Channing wasn’t alone in crying foul on Friday – yes, I know he wasn’t being entirely serious with the levy stuff – with the scurrilous/nod/hint/suggestion that Chris Stickels may have put all the 6mm of the watering on the straight track, after racing on Thursday, on just the stands’ side….
Conspiracy theorists were soon into top gear (I won’t make the obvious reference to the on-course, fighting, sockless brigade here) on X after the first race saw 1-3-4 lead them home in the Albany and then Time For Sandals doubled up from trap one in the Commonwealth Cup.
Then the Sandringham saw the first three home drawn 2-6-1, and it was not until the Palace Of Holyrood – we do have a God – did Thursday’s “track bias” return with Adrestia winning from 24.
Being serious for a moment, I’d be pretty relaxed about this myself, but it was rather curious to see the stands’ side rail being ignored throughout, and a quick question to the jockeys as to why it was would have been enlightening (if they were asked, then I missed it , which is not a big price).
Punters can take anything (well, most things) thrown at them – as long as the right people ask the right questions on their behalf.
But not necessarily the right-wingers, eh Neil?
If you are an evidence-based punter, then you are on the back foot here.
Just nine runners, seven of whom have raced just once and the other two are newcomers.
Almost by default, you would have expected Aidan O’Brien’s Moments Of Joy to head the betting but the Ballydoyle juvenile bubble was pricked in the Albany and she has drifted from [6/4] to [3/1], with Charlie Appleby’s impressive, wide-margin, £2m yearling, Newmarket winner Treanmor trimmed into [5/4].
However, the level of the front two is nothing special as it stands, and the form of the Charlie Appleby yard would worry you a touch.
This race has limited betting appeal for me but narrow Newbury winner Humidity arguably boasts the premier speed figure and maybe the best form.
The second hasn’t run since and the third was beaten at [8/11] next time, but the fourth and seventh won on their next starts (and the 14th home finished second in the Coventry on Tuesday), and he made more appeal at the opening 6s.
Wathnan Racing must have tabled a big offer to prise this full brother to 2022 Chesham winner Holloway Boy away from Cheveley Park after that success.
Yes, if you want a bet then Humidity is the one, though he was 6s on Friday and he is now just a general 4s.
But we are dealing with unknowns here, and Thesecretadversary and Venetian Lace (the Charlie Johnston yard is in the best form I have ever seen it) are also plausible winners at 9s and 11s respectively.
Go steady if you are getting involved.
Well, actually go as hard as you want if you have the funds.
Mr Joorabchian will be hoping for a quick return on his Monday £2m purchase Ghostwriter – that looked a ludicrous amount of money – but the horse would only cop 141k for winning this Group 2 and he is a top-priced [6/1] with AKBets to do just that.
I wouldn’t have a strong opinion in this, other than the fact that the old boy Rebel’s Romance is the one to beat and a deserved [21/10] poke, with the [5/2] being taken yesterday and the [9/4] this morning.
He is a multiple Group 1 winner in a Group 2 and age hasn’t caught up with the 7yo just yet.
But there clearly is little juice in his price and I’m not enamoured by many in here at the prices, but I thought Candleford perhaps looked a little big at the general 25s on Thursday morning, though the betting suggests he is very much William Haggas’ second-string behind Space Legend, though that one is exceptionally weak at the moment and out to 14s (from 6s yesterday).
He isn’t a general 16s now though, and 18s in a spot, so that angle has ebbed away, too. And he is now shorter than Space Legend, though the serious money has yet to enter the market.
We haven’t seen him since he finished fourth in this race last season, so he must have had an issue or two, but he won first time out last term and I can see him getting his own way out in front here.
Haggas surely won’t have him undercooked for this – he would surely have gone elsewhere for a lesser race on his return if that was the case – and I can see him beating off his other pace rivals here and controlling the race from the front.
Leading for the full 1m4f is very much a doubt, but if I am going to have an interest – and I haven’t had a bet yet – then it’ll probably be him.
His record over course and distance on fast ground could well see him placed here at a price (he gagged up by 6 lengths in the Duke Of Edinburgh in this meeting first time up in 2022) but it’s a lukewarm lean and Rebel’s Romance and Al Riffa probably will have too much class for him if on their A-game.
And Clive Cox will be moving heaven and earth to ensure Ghostwriter wins this so he can keep the horse.
I have filed this race under too difficult, at the current prices anyway – these Ascot odds are up and down more than an incontinent man’s strides – but you crack on where you see fit.
There is a lot of talk doing the rounds that we are going to see the real, Australian version, of Storm Boy here, and the betting initially reflected the gossip, as he is was only 4s and 5s here when the betting re-opened on Thursday, despite blowing out when last of nine in the Greenlands on his debut for the yard at the Curragh.
Mind you, he has drifted to a general 12s and [16.0] on Betfair as this goes live.
He went off at [6/4] on his debut for the yard that day, so I bet his backers were absolutely delighted when Aidan O’Brien claimed post-race that he hadn’t even galloped him beforehand.
I am sure that quote got lost in translation somehow – it is plain ridiculous for a horse not to have been worked seriously ahead of a Group 2, and any other trainer would have been laughed out of town for saying that – but, whatever happened there, he looked a serious tool over 6f in Australia.
And, looking at the Curragh run, they didn’t put a gun to his head. If the rumours are true, he is now primed for this.
He may well blast from the front from stall 15 and stay there, but he has a serious question to answer here, stable confidence or not.
And, looking at Timeform, the horse has never raced on anything quicker than good.
The ground could be a concern for Lazzat, devilishly impressive last time but unproven on anything faster than good, and that is reflected in him being weak in the market out to 5s.
The Japanese like it like a road so Satono Reve, probably the form horse on his latest run against Ka Ying Rising at Sha Tin (I’m a global expert me), should be in his element and last year’s Commonwealth Cup winner Inisherin will love the conditions.
The ground is (currently) dictating the shape of this market.
This will be the first time that Topgear has run over 6f since his 2yo days and this will also be the quickest ground he has raced on, so that’s a double concern.
But in terms of ability I don’t think he will be found wanting as he has looked a serious tool over 7f and 1m, and a seriously quickly tool at that, and he interested me at 8s.
But I went and had a look at what Timeform said about his career ground record. They have him racing on good to firm twice and being beaten both times, and one of those was a total blow-out in the Prix de la Foret in 2023.
I slept on this race overnight and I came to the conclusion that Great Generation was worthy of a small bet at 33+ on Betfair (currently 42.0), and 33s fixed odds, four places.
That’s how I have played it so far, Well, I couldn’t get the 33s fixed-odds so I had to settle for 28s (sod’s law she is now 33s with the one firm I can get on with myself, and is now generally available at that price).
Timeform have her down as two from two on good to firm ground and I thought she did exceptionally well to come from off the pace, on the often unfavoured outside, to give Jabaara and Spiritual 3lb over 7f at Lingfield last time.
That pair have won Listed and Group 3 races since, and I get the impression a waiting race in a strongly-run 6f could suit this filly, with her late change of pace.
Comanche Brave is probably my strongest win-only fancy of the week and I backed him accordingly yesterday at a general 4s.
I know that is some way shy of the usual price I play at, but he looked more of a [5/2] poke to me.
However, he is now 3s across the board and the price is now marginal (I’d still make him a bet at the current 4.7 on Betfair, but maybe he will drift back to 4s with the fixed-odds boys at some point).
Simply put, he is the best horse in the race and the step back to 7f on quick ground is perfect for him.
In fact, I’d have fancied him over 6f in the Jubilee Stakes 40 minutes earlier.
A mile clearly stretches him but, to his credit, this strong traveller stuck to his guns well enough to finish fifth in the Irish 2,000 Guineas last time, but speed is his main asset.
His earlier second to Henri Matisse over 7f at Leopardstown obviously reads exceptionally well, a race in which yesterday’s Commonwealth Cup second Arizona Blaze was in third, and the booking of Ryan Moore is the icing on the cake.
Hopefully he will settle and run his race. If he does, then I expect a very big run. Fellow market-leaders Remmooz and Marvelman are respected, admittedly.
I am also going to take a small-stakes flier Caburn, who has been backed into from 40s into 28s, who is currently trading a lot bigger on Betfair at [36.0]. That is where I am chucking a score at him.
I’ll press up again if he drifts back out, as I am expecting. He has all the hallmarks of a unsexy, friendless horse once the big cash arrives.
I like the angle of him stepping up to 7f for the first time.
It remains to be seen how his draw in two pans out, but I thought this horse shaped a lot better than the bare form on his return over 6f at Newbury (I backed him there), getting his second wind late on to be nearest at the finish.
He was a big drifter there, too.
His form to date needs massively improving on here, but the potential is there after just the five starts and fast ground is his bag and his pedigree and run-style suggests he will be better suited by this trip.
I am playing him small, but this is all about Comanche Brave for me. I am just a bit miffed the 4s and [7/2] went about an hour ago, sorry.
I have obviously found this card rather tricky, so what could be better to get me back on the punting horse than a 28-runner Wokingham?
Well, most races, clearly.
The favourite More Thunder has been well touted for this ever since his win on debut for William Haggas at Newmarket in mid-April and he followed up, narrowly, at the same track next time and everything about him suggests a strongly-run 6f will suit.
But he has gone up 11lb for those successes (and 6lb for a short-head last time) and the general [5/2] looks exceptionally tight in those circumstances.
I had to do a double-take when seeing those odds on Saturday morning.
Not for me, so I went looking for one at a price.
Noble Truth from stall 31 certainly fits that as he is 100s fixed-odds and [190.0] on Betfair.
Now, John McConnell is one of the streakiest trainers out there and he is currently on one of his downward spirals and he got hold of this one from David O’Meara for a song, for a mere 4.200 guineas in March.
That suggests he may have gone completely at the game – I am sure some owners have paid more than for a good lunch, and he may be a social runner here – but he won the Jersey Stakes for Charlie Appleby on this card in 2022 (rated 112) and he races off a mark of just 97.
However, quite clearly he is an even better candidate for last place given that profile and I chucked a score at Cover Up instead at [75.0] this morning (available at 40s, six places, generally).
The stable had the winner of the last on Friday (Simon Crisford sounded a touch well-oiled afterwards but perhaps he was just excited) and this horse is no forlorn hope, with the tongue-tied applied for the first time on ground that suits.
He ran okay off a 2lb higher mark this in the race season, beaten under 5 lengths when racing for the Gozzas – you can mark that run up as he was always on the back foot after a slow start – and, although only sixth of eight, I thought he ran well at Newbury last time considering he was far too keen.
He will hopefully settle much better in this bigger field (he finished fifth in the Stewards Cup last season off this mark), so the exchange price is very fair, and I will also throw a few quid on him at 40s, six places.
But it is a small-stakes play on a very quiet punting day in a nightmare of a handicap, in which More Thunder looms large.
But [5/2].
Seriously?
The 1m2f Golden Gates handicap is a bit more like it and Johnny Murtagh’s Fantazy Man, who Gai Waterhouse bought for 250k at the eve-of-meeting sale on Monday, looked reasonably interesting here at a drifting 28s (the 33s has just gone, ffs, though he is [48.0] on the exchanges).
You have to massively respect Sandown runner-up Seraph Gabriel but he now ranges from 2s to [5/2] – though [4.1] on Betfair – and you can stick that where the sun doesn’t shine (which is not in many places lately).
Anyway, back to Fantazy Man.
His form has taken off since being fitted with cheekpieces and going up in trip, and he fairly bolted up in a 1m2f Fairyhouse handicap in a fair time on his most recent start.
He is 11lb higher and going in much deeper, on ground much quicker than he has experienced before but the Waterhouses (good song that, The Whole Of The Moon) wouldn’t be bad judges of a horse and they have picked up a rapid improver here.
I’ve had a very small bet on him but the more solid each-way angle, to not much bigger stakes, is Best Secret at [6/1], four places.
He is yet another horse who was bought by Wathnan Racing after his impressive 3-length win at Longchamp last time (on ground Timeform called good) and his revised mark of 95 could underplay that performance.
The stable come in here in good form and they have a lightly-raced improver on their hands and, with luck from stall five – these 1m2f races here are full of hard-luck stories, but I hope and expect James Doyle to take the cowards’ but sensible route and come wide – he will hopefully be on the premises.
The ground will be the quickest he has raced on and he hasn’t raced since April, but hopefully they have kept him back for this, and he hasn’t been absent with a problem.
These are just two small bets, though, so don’t be going mad.
Well, if you are going to go mad, back something else….
That’s me done, as I have zero interest in this 2m5f jobber for boats.
It would make sense for racegoers to make an early dart home before this race, and likewise punters should be happy enough to give it a miss, too.
Quite, bizarrely, Sober is the odds-on favourite at [4/5] at 6.10pm at Ascot on Saturday.
Surely, that should be a 1000, as it’s been a long week for the piss-tanks there and I don’t think many will be driving home.
Fight in the car park anyone?
Going – Straight: Good to firm; Round: Good to firm
Going stick: Stands side: 8.8, Centre: 8.5, Farside: 8.8. Round: 7.4
Forecast: Dry, warm and hot.
Soil Moisture: 37%.
Saturday morning course update: Dry over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Saturday. No rain rain recorded over the past 7 days. It is forecast to get to 30c today with a possible shower. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering history: Watered whole track 5mm Friday night. Watered straight 6mm and round 5mm Thursday night. Watered whole track 5mm Wednesday night. Watered whole track 5mm Tuesday night. Watered: straight course 6mm on Monday and 5mm on Round course Monday night. Watered 10mm on the straight course last Saturday, Thursday and Tuesday. Watered 5mm on round course on Sunday and Saturday nights and 3mm on Thursday night and Tuesday nights. The current plan for the week is to water each night to replace moisture lost through evapotranspiration
Other
Royal Ascot Owners and Trainers information on Ascot Racecourse website can be accessed by going to: www.ascot.com/owners-trainers-royal-ascot
Rails: The rail that was in place on the round course for the past two days has been removed providing fresh ground for Thursday from approx 9f out to the home straight
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
5pm: Elmonjed, Toca Madera, Invictus Gold, Purest Time, Ramazan, Run Boy Run Indian Run, Spangled Mac, Sergeant Wilko, Adaay In Devon, Durham Castle, Twilight Jet, Hammer The Hammer, Billyjoh, Woolhampton, Alzahir ,Jubilee Walk, Jungle Drums, Columnist, Wodao, Fahrenheit Seven, Miss Attitude, Dorney Lake, Two Tribes, Inishfallen, Fivethousandtoone, Eye of Dubai, Apotheosis, Aleezdancer, Sterling KnightDark Thirty, Grand Traverse, Partisan Hero, Vantheman, Staincliff, Buccabay, Mehmar , Rousing Encore, Cajetan, Photosynthesis, Apache Outlaw, Rohaan ,Supreme King, Jesse Luc
5.35pm: Archivist, Dante’s Lad, The Lost King, Cristo, War Hawk, Marhaba Ghaiyyath, Fort George, Hymnbook, The Trickster, Rogue, Millions, Urban Glimpse, Lightening Mann, Wicked, Grecian Legacy, Meblesh, Keble Spirit
Mick Appleby cheekpieces 17-181 (since 2016) – Annaf, 3.40pm
Joseph O’Brien blinkers 12-128 (2016) – Al Riffa, 3.05pm
William Haggas cheekpieces 28-193 (2016) – Space Legend, 3.05pm
David Menuisier blinkers 1-7 (2015) – Sunway, 3.05pm
Archie Watson cheekpieces 25-274 (2017) – Shartash 5pm & Basalt, 5.35pm
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces 13-118 (2021) – Tycoon and Ernst Blofeld, 5.35pm
2.30pm (very little to go on): Humidity (3), Thesecretadversary (7), Momentsofjoy (1)
3.05pm: Burdett Road? (8), Candleford (4), Palladium (6), Rebel’s Romance (11)
3.40pm: James’s Delight (5), Lazzat (11), Storm Boy (15)
4.20pm: Dhitjari (7), Marvelman (14), One Smack Mac (12), Seagulls Eleven (15), Spy Chief (3), California Dreamer (11)
5pm: Apollo One (17), Valiant Force (28), Zoum Zoum (27), Ten Pounds (4), Get It (13), Desert Cop (25), Woodhay Wonder (20), Noble Truth (31)
5.35pm: Rock Of Cashel (3), Tycoon (2), Ernst Blofeld (18), Roosevelt (1), Glen To Glen (15)
6.10pm: King Of The Road (10), Tashkhan? (4), Trooper Bisdee (9), Dallas Star (1)
Excellent: John and Thady Gosden, Aidan O’Brien
Good: William Haggas, Andrew Balding, Hugo Palmer, George Boughey, James Owen, Owen Burrows, Roger Varian, Christopher Head, Willie Mullins (winner on Friday), S Wattel, Gordon Elliott, Sir Mark Prescott, Luke Dace (two runners; one winner), Charlie Johnston (four winners on Friday and probably in his best form for a while)
Fair: Simon and Ed Crisford (winner on Friday), Richard Hannon, Joseph O’Brien, Ed Walker (winner on Friday), Adrian Murray, Kevin Ryan, Archie Watson, Ralph Beckett (welcome winner on Friday, and followed up with another at Newmarket this evening), George Scott (coming into good form), Karl Burke, Raphael Freire, Charles Hills, Richard Fahey, J A Stack, Dylan Cunha, Marco Botti, Eve Johnson Houghton, Mick Appleby, Julie Camacho, Harry Charlton, Jack Jones, Ismael Mohammed, Johnny Murtagh, Clive Cox, David O’Meara, J Reynier, Andre Fabre, Stan Moore (no winners), William Knight, Ben Pauling, Michael Keady (recent winner), Jennie Candlish, Donnacha O’Brien, Ger Lyons (22-1 winner on Friday), Charlie Appleby (fair for him)
Moderate: Brian Meehan, David Menuisier, Charlie Fellowes, Richard Spencer, Tom Clover, George Baker, Tom Ward, John McConnell, Sean Woods, Brian Ellison
Don’t know: Henry Candy, Noriyuki Hori, P Schiergen, Charalambous and Clutterbuck, Elias Mikhalides, Niels Petersen
1.20pm – Here is hoping Act Of Innocence repays the long-term faith Ballyburn faced only…
THURSDAY’s DETAILS GOING/WEATHER GROUND AND WEATHER DETAILS (weather forecast March 11th-13th – updated 7am Wednesday)…
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