By Tony Calvin - 19 June 2025
I’ll nick the first bit straight from the Racing Post, namechecked, as it saves time.
Last night Ascot clerk of the course Chris Stickels told the sport’s trade paper (for some reason plenty hate that description) that he was applying another 5mm of water all round before Thursday’s racing.
The RP said the last elements of good had disappeared from the going description ahead of racing on Wednesday – but that isn’t accurate as the round course is still good to firm, good in places, with the straight course good to firm.
Stickels said: “We’ll put five millimetres on, the same as last night, and I would imagine, given the evapotranspiration we had today, putting five on will bring it back to similar conditions.”
There will be fresh ground on the inner line of the round course as the false rail is taken away, leaving the full width of the course all the way round.
That was very boring, sorry.
Wednesday highlights were thin on the ground for me, with a couple of place returns from Cardiff By The Sea and Rahieeb (the latter hit 1.8 in running, so I also got a bit back there) to go with a lay of Cinderella’s Dream when she hit [11/8].
One of the features behind yesterday’s racing was the money behind some of the Wathnan horses, so perhaps they have punters attached to them, Godolphin-stylee.
Crimson Advocate (thankfully) landed a largely unheralded gamble in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes when beating the aforementioned Cinderella’s Dream – she was 28s with AKBets in the morning and won at [13/2] – but the betting highlight of the day was an extraordinary late punt on Blue Brother.
Forget The Liffey nonsense – he was as weak as a baby’s piss (unless their parents are starting them on the drink early) and he went off at a Betfair SP of 18.26 – this was a real late move.
I flagged him up in the morning when he was trading at [60.0] and he shortened throughout the day, but there was a cascade of money for him on the exchange in the last five minutes from [15.0] into [9.0].
Well, cascade-ish.
He hit [100.0] in the early market, but he went off at a Betfair SP of [9.4].
Now, I will preface this by saying it takes relatively little money these days to shorten horses on the machine, even to this degree, and for the fixed-odds firms to follow suit, causing a price “crash” – I was watching it unfold live and there wasn’t that much cash flowing for him in the market as he moved downwards (by the way, it really is criminal that ITV, given their on-air numbers, don’t have a dedicated betting pundit (s), whose sole job it is to monitor on and off-course moves throughout the day) – but it was fun to watch, nonetheless.
Less fun for those who were on at big prices was the sight of James McDonald sitting motionless throughout in coming 18th of 30 – go and have a look at his strangely quiet ride, never coming off the Eric Idle (or Billy Idol, or your rhyming slang of choice) – and for his punters never to get a real run for their money, trouble in running or not (something that I didn’t see ITV pick up on afterwards).
Ah well, it is the hope that kills at Royal Ascot.
Just one more word on ITV’s coverage of the betting.
Criminal was rather harsh.
I know Brian Gleeson does the ring and Oli Bell covers the exchange moves, so that is real progress, but I think their coverage is crying out for a concentrated betting hub-type pitch somewhere which is all over the markets and assessing their depth and the like and time-framing the moves.
Maybe Charlotte Hawkins and that bearded bloke could re-train from fashion….
ITV are better than the racing TV channels though, from what little I see of them these days.
Anyway, Wathnan’s Old Is Gold was also backed into favouritism in the last, so keep an eye out for moves for their horses.
They splash the cash purchase-wise and there is often plenty of money behind them in the market from persons unknown.
Indeed, their Sing Us A Song has already been backed from 9s yesterday morning into a general [7/2]. More of him shortly.
I’ll be back around 7am-7.30am.
Aidan O’Brien’s Charles Darwin is the best horse going into the race form-wise and on the clock, so little wonder he has been backed from [11/8] early on Wednesday morning into a general [4/6] – AKBets was [4/5] first thing but that was taken at 5.36am – especially with the stable’s juveniles already bagging the Coventry and Queen Mary this week.
There is some [8/11] now appearing.
He has experience too, so I think the opposition may be up against it, though there is always a nagging doubt when you are drawn on a wing, as he is in 15 of 16.
However, being drawn high is probably no bad thing here, and he can dictate his own fate anyway.
Naval Light was a big drifter in the Beverley Two Year Old Trophy on his debut and he was ridden with an eye to the future in second there.
A man with two glass eyes, blindfolded, couldn’t have missed the massive promise of that outing from this 360,000 guineas Breeze Up purchase, and I have no issue with him being the second favourite at [11/2], though he has drifted as the money has come for the favourite. He is also 8s win-only on the exchange.
But, as I always say, this is a 2yo contest and the very nature of these races means any of these could spring forward considerably, which is why we have seen [150/1] winners in juvenile races at this meeting in recent years.
Anything is possible.
The yank Sandal’s Song, a 12s poke, is an obvious unknown, having won his sole start from an odds-on poke at Gulfstream last month and George Weaver prepped his 2023 winner Crimson Advocate at that very track.
But perhaps the biggest danger to the favourite is [17/2] chance Afjan – that’s with AKBets, who are again going pretty hard on the first four races – who overcame all sorts of hardship to win impressively at Chantilly on his debut and he could be a fair tool.
You may have guessed that I am not having a bet in this race, so at least I won’t be behind after the first.
That said, I may lay the favourite if he gets any shorter. If it hits that [4/6] on the exchange, I’d rather the field was running for me at [6/4], but it’s a very marginal call, even at those odds.
He is currently [1.79] on Betfair as I press publish.
He was [1.69] at 11.30am, and best at [4/6] with AKBets and two others.
London Boy is a NR.
This is a red-hot race but the betting suggests it is around evens that either the punted pair Merchant or Sing Us A Song wins this 1m4f 3yo handicap, and you can see why that pair are popular.
Merchant, who was very impressive when beating yesterday’s Queen Vase third last time, is now only [5/2] in a place and a general [9/4], while Sing Us A Song was backed throughout yesterday from a morning 9s – he was still 7s around 5pm yesterday – and he is now just 4s in one spot and a general [7/2].
The 4s has gone now.
I really like both but you can’t be recommending them at their current odds.
The likes of Serious Contender and Gunship could be well ahead of their marks, too. You’ll probably need 10lb in hand to be winning this.
You may hear a lot about wanting to be drawn low in this race, but that is poppycock.
Of course, you will need luck wherever you are drawn in a 19-runner handicap, but the stats say you want to be drawn high, and Merchant and Serious Contender are berthed in 20 and 21 respectively (well they were with the three reserves in the race).
I am not going to sit here and tell you not to back the two market leaders because they are too short – ultimately betting is a personal decision, whatever guff you read or listen to, and plenty of horses at what I would consider bad prices win every day of the week (shit judge alert) – but no way am I getting stuck in at those odds in a big-field handicap.
Now, I am not going to play hard in this – it is easy to make convincing cases for several, as I have outlined – but I thought Lightening Mann was the premier each-way shout at 16s, five places (the firm offering six places are just 12s).
I must admit I was more bullish on him when I went to bed, as the market leaders scare me, (currently 21.0 in a weak exchange market).
We haven’t seen him since he was just touched off by a head in the London Gold Cup in May, so maybe connections have held him back for this, and his run-style and pedigree suggests the step up to 1m4f could well suit.
He is by Kameko admittedly, but his dam won over this trip and Jack Channon is of the belief that it will suit.
I am not sure why he is 1lb well-in here, but he is, and that Newbury form looks strong enough.
The winner is a single-figure chance in the Golden Gates on Saturday (the fourth is a 14s poke for that race, too), the fifth was beaten in a bunch finish next time and the sixth and seventh both won recently.
In fact, the latter victories are probably why he went up 1lb for sitting (or standing) in his box. And I obviously like his draw in 19.
He also had a certain Merchant back in third when sticking on really well to win over 1m2f at Newmarket last month, and I have just clocked he has been bought by the Aussies since Newbury. The 16s, five places, is the bet.
This is one close-knit Ribblesdale on official figures and also a moderate renewal, with the highest-rated filly being a mere 100.
That said, six of these are within 4lb of the 100-rated Serenity Prayer.
Two haven’t got a rating yet, and one of those is Paddy Twomey’s Catalina Delcarpo, who may well have been the premier filly form-wise if the handicapper had assessed her. I suspect Paddy Twomey’s filly, second in a Group 3 at Navan in April on the last occasion they saw her, could be the one to beat and she currently shares favouritism with Serenity Prayer.
Once again, I wouldn’t be going mad here, but I’d be very much inclined to think that Caspi Star is too big at a general 12s.
In fact, I managed to back her at 11s each way, four places on Wednesday morning (a combination that is still available and the best betting option if you can access it) and I thought that pretty good business.
I am not going overboard on the bare form of her Chester third to the subsequent Oaks winner Minnie Hauk, especially as the runner-up got humped in a Group 3 in France last time, but she surely shaped considerably better than her beaten distance there.
And, to be honest with you, I actually thought she shaped like the best filly in that race on the day, as I think Silvestre De Sousa (who keeps the ride here) gave her a far from optimum ride.
She is a proven stayer and the more I looked at the race the more I liked her at a double-figure price, for all this is a rare occasion in which I get with a Charlie Johnston horse. It is a stable that I have always found incredibly hard to get a handle on.
I hope they go forward from stall one (that is clearly not ideal), unlike Chester where she always on the back foot.
I have also backed her win-only on the exchange at [14.5], and I was very surprised when she drifted out to [18.0], although not much has been traded at the extremes, obviously.
She is probably my idea of the bet of today at 12s each way – and especially if you can get that 11s each way, four places.
That extra safety net could come in very handy here.
Caspi Star has drifted to a massive [19.0] as at 11.30am, and 16s, fixed-odds.
I’ve gone in again.
I suspect Illinois is the most talented horse in here, or maybe will be, but he is going in deep over a trip around 6f further than he has gone before.
Michael Tabor’s assessment that “if he stays, he wins” is probably as uncontroversial as it is accurate but he wouldn’t be for me in a pretty deep race – against horses of similar ability, as it stands.
He has the greatest upside, but that is very much to be proven over a lung-busting 2m4f. We can get a bit blasé about horses staying extreme distances, however classy they are.
He is top at [7/4] fixed-odds, and [3.05] on Betfair.
Candelari is hugely thought-of and clearly justified that reputation when winning a Group 1 (I had to double check it was a Group 1) last time, but surely Trawlerman is Mr Solid in this.
Admittedly, he is pretty much his price at [2/1] now – there was [11/4] and [5/2] knocking about yesterday – but his body of Ascot work against Kyprios marks him down as the one to beat, with the main man not present and correct.
He beat Aidan O’Brien’s horse here in October 2023, then ran him to a length in this race last year before finishing a creditable third to Kyprios and stablemate Sweet William back at the Long Distance Cup in the autumn.
He is obviously in rude health with a wide-margin defeat of Coltrane in the Henry II Stakes at Sandown last time, and I can easily envisage a scenario in which he goes out in front – and stays there.
But, like I said, [2/1] is pretty much his price. I’d still maybe prefer to back him over Illinois but it’s marginal now.
I did manage to get a small amount on him at 4s, three places, last week – enough to pay for the Jolly Boys outing with the Racing Post old boys at Brighton next Tuesday, unless Jackson and Kay lure me into a casino in the late/early hours (spoiler – that is not a big price) – so I hope the in-running comment reads: “made all, easily.”
In fact, you can also make a fair case that his stablemate Sweet William, each way at 9s, is the best bet of all. He may lack the killer instinct but he is an obvious place candidate.
With the dead-eight here (we saw yesterday how one can come out in this situation on quickening ground), I will hold fire for now, though.
Ilinois has drifted to [4.0] as at 11.30am, now third favourite with Candelari very strong – at the moment.
First off, this is a race where the bookmakers give their profits to charity and, as a result, they have always bet to standard 1,2,3,4 each way terms.
So I am surprised a few independents, as well as one High Street Irish outfit, are paying five places. They probably should reconsider so it’s a level playing field for charidee.
As is normally the case, this is one devilish difficult 30-runner 3yo handicap, with no end of lightly-raced improvers in here.
I was very keen on Raafedd for this, but when Hugh Taylor got involved at 11s yesterday afternoon, followed up by the on-fire Andy Holding two hours later.
He is now a general [9.2] chance, and currently [7.2] win-only on Betfair.
His Newbury win in a good time suggest this lightly-raced colt has a lot to offer on his handicap debut.
I thought a latecomer to the party was interesting enough at 40s, and I have just backed him at [70.0] on Betfair.
Linwood was a non-runner at 9.32am on Wednesday (lame) which allowed first reserve, handicap debutant, Competizione a run.
And that could be crucial, as the Chelmsford race he finished second in last time could be the key to unlock this puzzle.
Arabian Story was incredibly impressive in winning that race and he has to be on everyone’s shortlist for this, but Competizione has a 7lb pull here and both horses have had just the minimum three runs.
One is a general 40s and the other is 8s.
That Chelmsford form was given a big boost when the third bolted up in a handicap off 85 next time (the fourth ran well in defeat subsequently too), and the first and second look competitively handicapped off 97 and 90 respectively.
That’s the formline I am pursuing in this.
Now, I did manage to get a bit of 14s Arabian Story yesterday morning (hands up I also backed Competizione at a sorry 20s at the same time….) , but he is just now a general 8s.
It is not hard to see making a bold bid to make all up the stands’ side rail though, so I have just had a press-up on him win-only at [12.5] on the exchange.
Raafedd is now 7s on the exchange, heading towards backable for me.
I never fail to think of the Carry On sketch when typing out the Hampton Court (hampton caught if you need it spelling out).
Once again, a biggish field around 1m2f around will claim a few hard-luck victims, as the Wolferton duly did, but I do agree with the market that Trinity College and Detain are the right favourites, ahead of Jackknife.
Boring, I know.
Trinity College actually finished a head behind Detain when a length fourth in the French Derby last time but he cut out a lot of the donkey work for stablemate and winner Camille Pissarro there and he can run under his own steam here.
Ryan Moore had earlier blamed himself for getting the horse beaten when a head second in the Blue Riband Trial and he just looks the class act to me.
One firm are now offering him at [9/2] each way, four places – not one that I can access via any available route – but that would appear a cracking bet if you can get hold of it.
Al Shababi is a NR.
Early morning mover Jackknife is now available at 6+, underlining how fragile these early markets are.
No surprise to see Trinity College now best at only [7/2].
A nice easy 7f handicap to finish off Thursday ….
My head hurt looking at this race on Wednesday morning, so I decided to come back to this first thing on Thursday.
My early Wednesday lean was towards Akkadian Thunder, who I thought bolted up when beating Billyjoh at Doncaster over 7f on Derby Day and I think a 6lb rise is bridgeable.
He had earlier twice shaped with promise over 6f, for which he was dropped 2lb, and this horse ran two crackers here last autumn, so the course form angle is present, too.
The 16s looked very fair on first viewing on Wednesday, so I had a preliminary dabble, for all a draw in 29 (Billyjoh is in three) means all your eggs are in one basket on that score.
But looking at the pace map, I think that may well be the place to be.
On that score, I was filthy at myself for backing and tipping Julia Augusta yesterday.
She ran an absolute screamer to finish 10th from stall four from so far off the pace – the first nine home came from 13-20-23-12-11-21-17-18-19 – and the pace map did suggest she could be in trouble.
There is a race in her when things drop right for her.
Coming at it afresh on Thursday morning, I see Akkadian Thunder’s price is now just 11s (17.0 on Betfair, though). I have also had an interest at that price,
That Doncaster formline will hopefully be the key to this race so, just in case the low numbers have it, I have just thrown a score on Billyjoh at 25+ on the machine (his draw scares me so I’d rather play win-only myself).
He has a 4lb pull for 1 ½ lengths on that Donny form and he is just 1lb higher than when chasing home good thing English Oak (6s in here) in this race last season.
Array is a NR as at 2.47pm (going).
Going – Straight: Good to firm; Round: Good to firm
Going stick: Stands side: 8.9, Centre: 8.5, Farside: 8.7. Round: 7.1
Forecast: Dry, warm and hot.
Soil Moisture: 37%.
Thursday morning course update: Dry over the past 24 hours to 6.30am Thursday. 0.4mm rain recorded over the past 7 days. It is forecast be dry and warm through to the end of the week. Max temps forecast to be 28c today. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Watering: Watered whole track 5mm Wednesday night. Watered whole track 5mm Tuesday night. Watered: straight course 6mm on Monday and 5mm on Round course Monday night. Watered 10mm on the straight course last Saturday, Thursday and Tuesday. Watered 5mm on round course on Sunday and Saturday nights and 3mm on Thursday night and Tuesday nights. The current plan for the week is to water each night to replace moisture lost through evapotranspiration.
Other
Royal Ascot Owners and Trainers information on Ascot Racecourse website can be accessed by going to: www.ascot.com/owners-trainers-royal-ascot
Rails: The rail on the round course will be positioned approx 4yds out from approx 9f out to the Home Straight this will remain in place until after racing on Wednesday.
Stalls: Straight Course: Centre. Round Course: Inside
3.05pm: Meblesh, Criminal, Novelista
5pm: King Casper, Mississippi River, Rowdy Yeats, Tilted Kilt, Point of Contact, Sex On Fire, Cavolo Nero, Fort George, Hymnbook,, Gilet Hornsea Bay, Solar Army, Wicked, Lightening Mann, Frankies Dream, Meblesh
6.10pm: Gorak, Treasure Time, Lou Lou’s Gift, Great Chieftain, Love Billy Boy, Native Warrior, Aalto, Qazaq, Kodi Lion, Tiger Mask, Aramis Grey, Circe, Glenfinnan, Two Tribes, Alzahir, Hickory, Dorney Lake, Pals Battalion, Havana Blue, Twisting Physics, Partisan Hero, Thunder Blue, Mums Tipple, Diligent Resdev, Mythical Guest
Aidan O’Brien cheekpieces 7-86 (record since 2016); Light As Air, 3.05pm
Aidan O’Brien blinkers 55-335 (2009); Island Hopping, 3.40pm
James Owen cheekpieces 6-29 (2024); Ammes, 3.05pm
John and Thady Gosden blinkers 10-67 (2021); Go Go Boots, 3.40pm
John and Thady Gosden cheekpieces 13-116 (2021); Fifth Column, 5pm & Roi De France, 6.10pm
Saeed bin Suroor hood 27-90 (2012); Dubai Future, 4.20pm
Hugo Palmer cheekpieces 15-125 (2016) ; Wolf Of Badenoch, 5pm
Hugo Palmer hood 12-67 (2011); King Casper, 5pm
Simon and Ed Crisford visor 5-29 (2020); Shout, 5pm
Jamie Osborne blinkers 8-88 (2009); Tarkhan, 6.10pm
Ed Walker cheekpieces 4-36 (2016); English Oak, 6.10pm
George Scott cheekpieces 7-75 (2016); No Retreat, 6.10pm
2.30pm (little evidence to go on): Charles Darwin (15), Clear Force (16), Comical Point (6), Graft (4), Star Material (11)
3.05pm: Masai Moon (13), Serious Contender (21), Sing Us A Song (17), Propose (9), Pantile Warrior (3), Ammes (8), Lightening Mann (19), Mafting (5), Waterford Flow (4)
3.40pm: Caspi Star (1), Lady Vivian (8), Life Is Beautiful (6)
4.20pm: Trawlerman (2), Illinois (1)
5pm: Wolf Of Badenoch (23), Supido (31), Arabian Story (29), Afentiko (6), Seagolazo (1), Teroomm (33), Mr Chaplin (5), Thunder Wonder (32), Hawksbill (2), Brise Noir (26), The Fingal Raven (10), The Lost King (25)
5.35pm: Arabian Force (14), Tiberius Thunder (2), Trinity College (6)
6.10pm: Northern Express (18), Myal (30), Yorkshire (31), Thunder Ball (16), Run Boy Run (2)
Excellent: John and Thady Gosden (five winners already this week), Aidan O’Brien (four Ascot winners)
Good: Paul and Oliver Cole, William Haggas, Charlie Appleby (form dropping off a touch), Andrew Balding, Hugo Palmer, Jonathan Portman (another winner on Monday, and Wednesday), George Boughey, James Owen, James Ferguson, Roger Varian, Grace Harris. Josephine Soudain, Adrian Keatley, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Paddy Twomey, F-H Graffard, Owen Burrows, Harry Eustace
Fair:, Roger Teal, Richard Hannon, Joseph O’Brien, Ed Walker, Hamad Al Jehani, Adrian Murray, Kevin Ryan, Ed Bethell, Ralph Beckett (moderate for him but winners on Monday and Tuesday), William Knight, Richard Hughes, George Scott, Karl Burke, Charlie Johnston, Michael Bell, Richard Fahey, Saeed bin Suroor (probably nearer good given small sample), Henry De Bromhead (winner on opening day), Clive Cox (very welcome winner on Monday evening), Ismail Mohammed (winner on Tuesday), Paul Attwater, Johnny Murtagh, Alan King, Newland and Insole (winner on Wednesday), Jamie Osborne, David O’Meara, Mick Appleby (14-1 winner on Tuesday), Jack Channon (borderline good), Simon and Ed Crisford, James Fanshawe, Charles Hills. Michael Dods (emerging from doldrums, with a double on Tuesday)
Moderate: Brian Meehan, Richard Spencer, Sean Woods, Ian Williams, Tom Clover, James Tate (though winner on Tuesday), Steph Hollinshead, Stephen Horne
Don’t know: H F Devin ( a reader tells me he is 6 from 16 in France this month, so thank you), George Weaver, M Al Attiya, Brian Toomey (two runners, one winner)
1.50pm Exeter – Time to kick these small-field novices’ chases off the main slots I…
SATURDAY’s DETAILS DONCASTER GOING – Soft, heavy in places Going stick: 4.6, Thursday 7.45am Average Soil Moisture…
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