By Tony Calvin - 26 October 2024
If you want to know how important Irish runners are to UK racing at the moment, then ITV’s cards on Sunday tell a powerful story.
No Irish involvement in the six terrestrial races at Aintree and Wincanton, and we are left with some underwhelming fields, despite some fair prize money and an 80k pot for the Old Roan.
I appreciate we have some classy operators for the Old Roan but to get just five runners (all 8 and 9yos), with two out of the handicap, is disappointing – I know it rarely gets a big field – and there is no point pretending otherwise.
To be honest with you, I nearly sacked off this column – I am certainly not tipping for the sake of it – but I decided to knuckle down, do the stats and prep and see what came out the other end.
And one eventually did.
No sniggering at the back please.
First things first.
The going at Aintree is currently good, good to soft in places, with maybe 4mm of rain arriving in the next 24 hours.
The going stick reading is 5.3.
But here’s the thing.
They watered 3-5mm on Friday, and put on another 5mm on Saturday morning.
“So 10mm to maintain.” Presumably maintain good, good to soft in places.
Curious.
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UPDATE TO GROUND AND WEATHER ON SUNDAY MORNING:
They had 3mm overnight, as forecast, at Aintree, to add to the 10mm of watering.
They may well have over-watered here (the going stick reading has eased), but at least today’s forecast rain isn’t currently due until after racing (4pm onwards)
However, watering to maintain good, good to soft, ground, with rain forecast would appear questionable – unless I have missed a recent BHA directive.
The updated going stick reading on Sunday morning is 5.1, from 5.3.
******
This could be a great spectacle if the real Ahoy Senor, Hitman and Stage Star all turn up, but there is too much guesswork to get seriously involved here.
All five are making their seasonal debuts – the last horse we saw on the track was Hitman and that was 183 days ago – and maybe last year’s runner-up Minella Drama will be the most primed for this.
However, the bookmakers pretty much think so too, as he is only a top-priced 4s (in two places)
Mind you, it is a very hard race to price up.
If pushed, I would still lean towards Minella Drama, who is 6lb lower (despite being 1lb wrong) than when second in this race, first time out, last season.
A decent 12-runner handicap chase, but not for me. These are hardly familiar names to these eyes, after all.
Stuzzikini is a fair price at 11s, I suppose, after a fifth in the Munster National last time, but it is a token selection at the very most.
I was initially disappointed by the 4s about Torn And Frayed – especially when noticing he opened up at 6s with one firm on Friday – but he has been given a fair chance by the handicapper in this veterans’ chase, with a claimer taking off a further 3lb.
He ran a very good race when 5lb out of the handicap at Cheltenham when we last saw him, so he is effectively that amount lower here – to re-iterate, the handicapper has not dropped him 5lb for that Cheltenham run – and I think he is weighted to go very close, but the 3m1f trip is the question to answer.
That doubt puts me off at the price, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they went from the front on him again and he stayed there. And, of course, the stable is firing on all cylinders.
Any lingering doubts about tipping him – and I was clearly tempted – were distinguished when the 4s was taken. He is now a general [7/2].
Most importantly, this raceday will celebrate the life of Keagan Kirkby, who died in a point-to-point at Charing on February 4.
“Anything to keep Keagan’s name in lights is fantastic. To have a charity event in Keagan’s name and whole day of racing is fantastic,” Paul Nicholls told BBC Radio Somerset.
“He was a wonderful guy, wonderful team player for us and he’s missed by us and all his family.”
Escaria Ten is due to run at Cheltenham on Saturday, so we are probably looking at just the five runners here.
I didn’t originally have a betting opinion of any of these at the current prices – Glynn is the predictable favourite at [6/4] in two places – but then I did my trainerform stats and the recent run of the Heather Main yard is something else.
Yes, I know it is a small sample, but we are not dealing with a yard with a lot of horses, so for their last four runners to net winners at 66-1, 3-1 and 5-2, with the other a 6-1 chance beaten a head, is something else.
Main runs Numitor here and he is only 3lb higher than when winning at Haydock by 5 lengths three starts ago.
He could maybe do with a bit more ease in the ground than is likely here. The latest going description has it as good.
That said, Timeform had him as finishing a good second on ground they described as good to firm at Haydock in 2022 (off an 8lb higher mark than this, so not far off a career-best).
James Bowen, who has won on the horse, is back on board. And the horse is one from one around here.
On an exceptionally quiet day, I am going to walk the trainer walk, and back Numitor win-only to minimal stakes at [11/2], which is available in six places.
And I mean minimal.
A seven-runner maiden hurdle but three of these have won in either the bumper or point sphere.
And, in the case of Emiyn, we have a horse who has won five times on the Flat and was rated 94 in his pomp.
In terms of pure ability Emiyn is probably the best in here, but the last time we saw him he was beaten a couple of streets when last at York 13 days ago, and who knows how he has hurdled at home?
The [13/2] was a tempter but I’ll leave the race alone, thanks.
Before the prices came out, I was really hoping that Quick Draw would be priced up attractively, as I thought he had a lot going for him, inconsistency aside obviously.
So I was a bit gutted that 3s was the best price going (in just two spots), and he was as low as 2s elsewhere.
Maybe I am just too optimistic, an accusation rarely levelled at me….
Even the 3s is far too short for me. It is not as if he is Mr Consistency, having been pulled up in three of his last six starts.
The positives are that he is a course winner who goes well when fresh, and he is fairly handicapped on his win here in February, but the fact remains he is a blow-out merchant, too.
Top weight Cruz Control is due to run at Cheltenham on Saturday, so we are probably looking at the dead-eight here, so be warned, each way punters (this race could have taken a maximum field of 22).
I thought this was very tricky regardless.
Kamsinas shaped better than a 130-rated horse on a couple of occasions last season (when winning at Haydock and Kempton) but apparently the staying handicap hurdle on Betfair Chase day at Haydock is his major early-season target, so maybe they are using this 2m4f race as a stepping stone.
He is rated 130, and a mark of 123 would have got you in that Haydock race last season.
Despite that doubt, whatever early money that is knocking around was for him, with the 4s taken. He is now [11/4] across the board.
Another race I’ll sit out.
Go well this weekend. A very quiet punting one for me , but good luck if you are more heavily involved.
BETS
Numitor at [11/2] in 2.42pm at Wincanton. Available in six places.
GOING/WEATHER – updated 8.07am, Sunday
AINTREE
Going: Good, good to soft in places
Going stick: 5.1 at 8am Sunday (was 5.3 on Friday morning)
Curious watering: 10mm Friday/Saturday
Weather: 3mm overnight into Sunday morning. More forecast, but currently due after racing (4pm onwards).
WINCANTON
Going: Good; Chase: Good, good to firm in places
Going stick: 6.6 as at 7.30am Sunday
Watering: 8mm applied to final 2f on Saturday
Weather: Dry
GALWAY
Going: Yielding to soft on NH course (dry overnight)
Weather: 13mm Sunday, throughout day
FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR
A M O’Grady cheekpieces 0-1 (since 2024) – Toofareastiswest, 2.05pm Galway
BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER (the following are out of the handicap)
1.50pm Aintree: Minella Drama (1lb), Unexpected Party (3lb)
2.42pm Wincanton: Kauto The King (3lb)
PACE MAPS (manually done)
1.50pm Aintree: Ahoy Senor, Stage Star, Minella Drama
2,05pm Galway: Grandero Bello?, Paidi’s Passion?
2.25pm Aintree: Rapper (prominent), Torn And Frayed?
2.42pm Wincanton: Glynn, Numitor (prom), Le Ligerien (prom), Presentandcounting, Kauto The King (prom)
3.00pm Aintree Emiyn? (made it on Flat on occasions), Takt De Touques, Rockchoeur (prom),
3.15pm Wincanton: Quick Draw, Found On, My Silver Lining, Deise Aba, No Hubs No Hoobs, Lieutenant Rocco
3.35pm Aintree: Cruz Control, Ballygeary (prom), Hurricane Ali (prom), Lavida Adiva?,
TRAINERFORM (ITV races, manually done)
Excellent: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Heather Main (last four runners have seen winners at 66-1, 3-1 and 5-2, and the other was a 6-1 chance beaten a head)
Good: Olly Murphy, Martin Keighley, Dan Skelton, Henry Daly. Lucinda Russell (three winners at 20s, 3s and 3s on Saturday)
Fair: Paul Nicholls, Donald McCain, Christian Williams (needs a winner, though), Evan Williams, Joe Tizzard, Declan Carroll, Tom Lacey, Fergal O’Brien, Lucy Wadham, Nicky Henderson, David Pipe, Emma Lavelle, Alexandra Dunn, Eddie and Patrick Harty, Gavin Cromwell, Liz Doyle, J P Dempsey, P J Rothwell, Charles Byrnes, Paul W Flynn, Gordon Elliott (elevated from moderate after a good Thu-Sat…)
Moderate: Ruth Jefferson (not many runners), Anthony Charlton, Barry Connell (not many runners but well beaten 2-1 favourite on Saturday)
Don’t know: Gerald Stephen Quinn, Steph Cameron, James Moffatt, Anthony Honeyball (only one recent runners), A M O’Grady
Another winner last week, this time @ 6/1 with the 1-0 Millwall home win over…
Kelso suffering with 11.10am start With 11 ITV races on Saturday, I’ll ditch the pontificating…