TONY CALVIN: Saturday’s course details – and the latest Cheltenham weather forecast

CHELTENHAM LATEST

On Sunday, I didn’t think they were a million to water before the start of the Festival – but it’s all change overnight into Tuesday.

As you can see below from the updated forecast, there is now daily rain from Thursday to Wednesday (though Saturday is basically dry, and we are not talking huge numbers).

Of course, these forecasts change daily (as we have just seen), so I’ll just keep updating as and when here.

If they are wrong, then so be it.

And plenty of other sites disagree with the current forecasts on the yr.no site I use.

And, lo and behold, the Cheltenham forecast just got a whole heap better and that remains so early on Wednesday morning… (see below)

SANDOWN (started watering on Tuesday despite currently being a mixture of soft and good to soft on both tracks)

I’ll have a look at Sandown on Saturday on Tuesday morning – Wolverhampton can wait until Thursday, though I have updated the double-entry information this morning (three of the entries are due to run on Wednesday/Thursday) – to see if anything is doing, betting-wise.

A very healthy number of five-day entries, and decent ground (though the yr.no forecast is yo-yoing from 2mm to 20mm+ and back to 2.5mm as of 5am on Wednesday), suggests the field sizes could hold up very well, and we have relatively few double entries – see below – so punters may well be better off waiting until Thursday onwards, with likely better percentages, prices and place terms etc, without the possibility of doing your money in cold blood with an unexpected no-show.

For example, the Imperial Cup has 30 entries, and that race could take a field of 22 on the day. Mondo Man seems to be shading favouritism over Khrisma at the moment around the 9/2/5s mark, but it is tight between that pair and 10s bar.

I have already seen a fair few horses that were trimmed in on Monday, such as Brace For Landing in the Imperial Cup, even though he is also in the EBF Final and needs four above him to come out in order to get a run.

As well as double entries, the following horses ineligible in the EBF Final at Sandown (1.50pm): Emerald Breeze, Kalkbrenner, Nazare, Keno Black.

I have decided not to have an ante-post bet, and simply wait to see what the weather does once it has finally made it mind up….

SATURDAY’s ITV COURSE DETAILS

SANDOWN (watered on Tuesday – and again on Wednesday; 12.5mm in selected areas now)

GOING – Chase: Good to soft, good in places; Hurdles: Soft, good to soft in places

GOING STICK – Chase: 4.1; Hurdles: 3.5, Tuesday 9.30am

Wednesday morning course update: 8mm rain in total from Thursday night to Saturday night. Dry since and now looking likely to remain dry with low to mid-teen temperatures all week, with the only slight chance of rain currently during Friday (1-2mm)

Weather (yr.no latest, 5am Wednesday): Dry and sunny and warm Thu, 4.4mm Friday, Dry Saturday

Watering: Given the dry and mild forecast for the rest of the week, selective watering in parts of the Back Straight of both courses commenced on Tuesday. 7.5mm applied. 5mm applied to same areas on Wednesday.

WOLVERHAMPTON

GOING: Standard

Stalls: 7f 36y outside; remainder inside

CHELTENHAM (weather forecast March 3rd-12th – updated 3.45pm Wednesday)

GOING: Soft, good to soft in places on Old Course (Tuesday and Wednesday)

Good to soft on New Course  (Thursday and Friday)

Cross Country: Good, good to soft in places (Going stick of 5.2, Tuesday 1pm)

GOING STICK  Old: 5.4, Tuesday 1pm; New: 5.9, Tuesday 1pm

Wednesday afternoon course update: 223mm since January 1st. Dry since Sunday. Dry forecast with temperatures reaching 17 degrees on Thursday. Drizzle forecast for Friday (1-2mm). Saturday and Sunday forecast dry with light showers possible early on Monday (1-2mm). Tuesday looking dry.

WEATHER (yr.no, 3.45pm Wednesday): Dry and sunny Wednesday and Thursday, 1.2mm Friday, Dry Saturday, 1.9mm Sunday, 3mm Monday, Dry Tuesday, 3.3mm Wednesday, 7.6mm Thursday; 13mm Friday

SATURDAY’s DOUBLE ENTRIES (pay particular attention to horses in bold)

1.50pm Sandown (28 entries; effectively 24): Brace For Landing, Ionian

NB: Fortune Timmy/Gentleman Toboot are in at Cheltenham next week

Ineligible horses: Emerald Breeze, Kalkbrenner, Nazare, Keno Black

2.05pm Wolverhampton (11 entries): NONE

2.27pm Sandown (30 entries): Brace For Landing, Game Colours

NB: Afadil/Brendas Asking/Bubble Dubi/Faivoir/Fingle Bridge/General Briar/Gibbs Island/Jack Hyde/Khrisma/Messerschmidtt, Mondo Man/No Ordinary Joe/Ooh Betty/Rubber Ball/Saligo Bay/Spirits Bay/Wreckless Eric are in at Cheltenham next week

2,42pm Wolverhampton (16 entries): Mr Baloo (due to run on Wednesday), Talis Evolvere (due to run on Thursday), Witch Hunter

3pm Sandown (16 entries): Babs, One Dimensional, Popton Point

3.15pm Wolverhampton (10 entries): Doctor Khan Junior (due to run on Thursday), Witch Hunter

3.35pm Sandown (16 entries): Calimystic, Doctor Ken, Followcato (due to run on Friday), Hudson De Grugy, Jupiter Des Bordes, Mountain Mike, Tune In A Box, Yes Day

NB: Hunter Legend is in at Cheltenham next week