TONY CALVIN: Newmarket on Tuesday – race-by-race analysis of the four ITV races

Ground now good to soft at Newmarket – 14.6mm so far

The first word is on the weather.

It is currently good to firm at Newmarket, but the ground is set to ease.

They had 3mm of rain on Sunday but, according to the main weather site I use, they could get up to another 15mm on Tuesday morning (from 1am to 9am).

UPDATE 6.47am Tuesday: The going is now good after 6mm overnight, with maybe a further 5mm to come (possibly more) this morning.

As at 10.10am, they have had 14.6mm since midnight on their live rain gauge. 

It looks to have stopped, and it is now good to soft.

1.50pm Newmarket – 14/1 Vantheman could be the answer

This is obviously a very competitive 0-100 6f handicap, further complicated by the fact that seven of the 13 are having their seasonal debuts.

And, as we all know, fitness can be key at this time of the year.

And we are guessing on that score with half of this field.

William Haggas has a couple of note in here, most obviously the progressive [4/1] favourite Elmonjed – the 5s was taken – but also More Thunder (14s, generally), having his first start for the yard after joining them after Sir Michael Stoute’s retirement.

As you may have already have guessed, I don’t have a firm betting opinion in this – and I haven’t had a bet yet – as you can simply make a cogent case for any of this baker’s (or is bakers’?) dozen.

Physique’s fourth to Dark Thirty (last year’s winner and re-opposing here) attracted a War And Peace explanation to the Doncaster stewards last month, so you can see why he is so short in the betting at prices ranging from 4s to [11/2] in a place.

If you asked me to shit or get off the pot, I’d say Vantheman is most attractively priced at a general 14s (has drifted from 12s).

Kevin Ryan has his string in fair enough form at the moment (he had a 2yo winner at 10s on Sunday) – it probably means nothing but the stable had a reappearance winner of this race in 2016 – and this horse won first time out last season.

If he runs up to the form of his subsequent Pontefract win on good ground in July, or indeed his fourth of 17 at York in October off a 1lb higher mark, then he possibly has as good a chance as any here.

The 14s looks fair, as does 12s.

2.25pm Newmarket – 6/1 Green Storm has the best form – so far

If we were half-guessing in the opener, then it is 100pc finger-in-the-air stuff for the 1m1f Listed Feilden Stakes, as all eight are having their first starts of the season.

The early market has Kempton winner Masai Moon as the [15/8] favourite, and the Charlie Appleby string looks more forward than most, but I can’t see why he is so short, unless I have missed the relevant gossip attached to the horse.

Nightwalker is another ex-Stoute horse (Jonquil won the Greenham after leaving him for Andrew Balding) and John and the Real Slim Thady Gosden have inherited the Autumn Stakes third.

On what we know, Green Storm is clearly overpriced at the general 6s on the strength of his 2yo form.

The Group 1 second in France sounds impressive until you see there were only three runners, but the winner is a fair sort and Green Storm also has proven stamina and course form on his side courtesy of his Zetland Stakes second, so the case for him is clear.

This a fitness crap-shoot, though.

And it could be crapper for each-way punters if we get a non-runner in the dead-eight (which is possible if that rain lands).

3pm Newmarket – 28/1 Cairo is not that slow a boat

Ottoman Fleet s going for his third consecutive win in this Group 3 1m1f Earl Of Sefton Stakes and he has unsurprisingly been put in as the favourite, at prices ranging from [11/8] to [13/8].

I suppose that is fair enough, even though you can give five of the six – Lavender Hill Mob has a stone or more to find with these – a shout in this.

Actually, the ratings point you towards the [9/4] second favourite Ambiente Friendly, having his first start for the James Owen yard after the owner switched him from James Fanshawe.

That’s hard on Fanshawe, who guided this horse to be placed in both the English and Irish Derbys, but the in-form Owen is making his name for improving stable-switchers and The Gredley Family are obvious close to him.

This trip is obviously short of his best, but he doesn’t lack pace.

I won’t be having a bet but Cairo is probably the most attractively priced at 28s win-only if you are desperate for an interest in this six-runner jobbie.

The stable wouldn’t be in great nick (a few have been running well enough but they could do with a winner) and the trainer’s record with a first-time visor is very poor (see below) but the horse is fit from a spell in Dubai and he is not far off these at his best.

The new visor accompanies the cheekpieces, in which he probably ran his best race in at Goodwood in August when a close second to Haunted Dream.

He could surprise, I guess.

Guess being the relevant word.

He won’t be surprising as he was a NR as at 9.06am because of the ground.

3.35pm Newmarket – 11/4 Arabian Dusk is the one to beat on her 2yo form

It’s clearly an unappealing betting ITV offering on Tuesday – sure, the 3yos races are interesting for future reference, but not for the here and now – and we are again in murky waters in the Nell Gwyn.

An impressive winner of her sole start here in October, in a decent time, Verse Of Love is the strong [13/8] favourite here, and we could easily be dealing with a Classic contender.

But she certainly has to kick on from her current form base, and the Group 2 winner and Cheveley Park third, and [11/4] chance, Arabian Dusk certainly has the most impressive form claims, as it stands. She now is available at [10/3].

Nardra is the Monday mover from 7s

I am slightly surprised to see the 7s third favourite and well-regarded Nardra in here, as she missed the Fred Darling on Saturday with a bruised foot – a minor hiccup perhaps, but a hiccup all the same – but, as with the favourite, there is no doubting her potential after sluicing up on her debut at Haydock in September. She is 7s in a place, and a general 6s, which could come under pressure soon.

UPDATE 5.15pm: Nardra, who opened up at 8s on Sunday, is now a general [7/2]. There is 4s out there, but only in one place.

Good luck if you are getting involved though.

There will clearly be better punting days ahead (and that sounds like the next Gordon Elliott juvenile hurdler on the block….).

NEWMARKET GOING AND WEATHER (14.6mm so far)

Going: Good

Far side course in use

Going stick: 7.0 at Tuesday 6am (was 7.5 at Monday 8am)

Stalls: All races: centre

Watering: 5mm applied on Friday

Watering history on BHA site

On Sat, 12 Apr 7:43am the watering status was Watered – 5mm applied on Friday.

On Fri, 11 Apr 7:52am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – 5mm being applied on Friday.

Tuesday morning course update: 6mm of rain since midnight. Forecast: Further morning showers, which could bring another 6mm of rain before clearing to a dry and cloudy afternoon.

Weather: Maybe another 5mm this morning, maybe more (As at 10.10am on Tuesday, they have had 14.6mm since midnight on their live rain gauge)

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STAT (only one, but interesting – well it was until the horse was a NR….)

Alice Haynes visor 0-21 since 2021 – Cairo, 3pm (granted, the horse also wears cheekpieces too in a combo)

PACE MAPS

1.50pm : Woodhay Wonder, Vantheman (prom), First Folio, Physique, Ararat, Twilight Romance (prom), Dark Thirty, Trefor

2.25pm (very limited evidence): Almeric (prom), Green Storm, Last Galileo, Law Of Design (prom), Nightwalker

3pm: Lavender Hill Mob (sounds like they will make the pace on this one), Ottoman Fleet

3.35pm (limited evidence): Cartwheel, Celestial Orbit (prom), Remaat, Biniorella Bay (prom), Arabian Dusk (prom), Zanzoun (prom)

TRAINERFORM (very small samples in the main, so made a judgement call on a few – four ITV races only)

Good: James Owen (another two winners on Sunday – and Mrs James Owen won with Allmankind at Stratford, too), William Haggas, Charles Hills, Robert Cowell, Andrew Balding, Charlie Appleby, Roger Varian (very good), Simon and Ed Crisford (fresh from a Grade 1 win in US), Dylan Cunha, Ollie Sangster

Fair: Pam Sly, Julie Camacho, Kevin Ryan (10-1 winner on Sunday), Richard Hannon, John and Sean Quinn, Jennie Candlish, Charlie Johnston, Brian Meehan (borderline moderate, but Rashabar’s second gets him a pass), Karl Burke (borderline good), John and Thady Gosden, Tom Clover

Moderate: Alice Haynes (maybe a touch harsh as a few are going well, but it is probably modest in the main in a fairly big sample)

Don’t know: Tom Ward