By Tony Calvin - 3 February 2025
There were 44 in Newbury’s 155k William Hill Handicap Hurdle – you may know it in its former guise of the Betfair, or the Schweppes, who have just been named “as the Official Mixer of Ascot and Royal Ascot” on Monday, funnily enough — before Monday’s noon confirmation stage, and we are now down to 23.
The course could have taken a maximum field of 24 on the day.
One striking aspect is that the 155k pot (£87,219 to the winner) has attracted no Irish entries.
It’s been a busy weekend for them, mind you.
There were very few notable no-shows on Monday, with Golden Ace (as low as 8s, but as big as 10s) the most obvious, and, to a lesser extent, Impose Toi (a general 20s).
Not many of note then, but the bookmakers appear to have slashed their prices of many of the 23 left in the race, regardless.
The weights went up 6lb with Burdett Road, Brentford Hope and Kala Conti coming out, which was good news for Joyeuse and King William Rufus, who were out of the handicap.
As this is an early-closer, Secret Squirrel is 1lb well-under a 5lb penalty for his Windsor success.
As was Milldam – re-assessed (ever so slightly) while standing in his box, after the horse he beat at Haydock in December has won since – but his connections have declined the invitation.
We may as well get the ground and weather out of the way before we have a look at the race.
The going at Newbury is officially soft (very soft judging by the going stick readings) but we are in for a dry week.
Secret Squirrel was best at a general 7s on Monday morning – just ahead of the lightly-raced Joyeuse at 8s – and that was a fair assessment, as he was dominant at the line at Windsor from an improver in second.
But their general prices are a mere 5s and 6s now, with 7s available about the latter in two places (effectively the same firm).
I reckon connections of the Windsor fourth and eighth, Navajo Indy and Hansard – we also have the sixth (Wreckless Eric) and seventh (Beat The Bat) in here – will be fancying their chances of reversing the form with Secret Squirrel.
They were 14s and 16s respectively on Monday morning, but they are now just general 8s and 12s pokes (the former is 9s in one spot), so the juice has already been squeezed out of their prices (that said, two firms are now 14s Hansard).
Nasty bookies.
The case for Navajo Indy looks particularly solid, though.
Two from three at the track (the defeat was a second of 16 to the Greatwood Hurdle runner-up Be Aware in a maiden hurdle last January), he was perhaps one of a number of horses not ideally suited by Windsor’s tight turns last time and he probably wasn’t ideally positioned on the track either.
He went up 8lb for his Gerry Feilden win here in November but that looks strong handicap form, and he looks a 6yo with plenty going for him.
If Navajo Indy didn’t like Windsor, I’d say Hansard hated it.
Mind you, someone saw that coming on the day.
Relatively popular in the early betting (which is increasingly a Phoney War, as we saw in parts at the DRF), he was a spectacular drifter when the proper money arrived near the off.
An 8s to 10s fixed-odds on-the-show drift doesn’t even tell half the story as he went off at 19.67 at Betfair SP, and I’ve seen more positive rides than the one Niall Houlihan gave him (maybe harsh), for all the course point stands and he found plenty of trouble.
He actually finished his race off reasonably well, so I thought it was an okay run in terms of this race, for all he is due to race off a 1lb lower mark in future (so he is 1lb wrong here).
He won the 2023 version of the Gerry Feilden here, and I can see him going much better, back on this more conventional track.
A lot of non-qualified horses have slipped through the net in recent weeks and I had a question on X as to whether Joyeuse, with just three hurdle starts to her name, was eligible to run.
It appears so, as the rules state: “”A novice or juvenile horse shall only be qualified to run in this race if it has run a minimum of four times in Hurdle races in Great Britain, Ireland or France in accordance with paragraph 15 of the Weights and Handicapping Code”.
She has the sexiest of profiles – she should have won over an extended 2m4f at Cheltenham last time, so I can stomach a 4lb rise for that defeat – and that 7s will not last.
Talking of massive late drifters last time, Minella Missile, 33s in three places and a stand-out 40s in two (effectively the same bookmaking outfit), went from opening in single figures to going off at a Betfair SP of 16.65 (actually traded in the 20s pre-race) on his return from a lengthy lay-off over 3m at Windsor last month.
This is a big step down in trip (though this could be a real stamina test at 2m) but it’d be fair to expect improvement from this 2m5f Grade 2 winner, from a stable not unknown to target one.
No, I am not going to mention Annsam again….
He could be the shortener if this has been the plan all along (I’ve no idea if it is).
Numbers are very thin on the ground elsewhere in the Saturday ITV races, even if we have the quality to make up for it.
Perhaps.
Current Arkle favourite Sir Gino could have his mettle well and truly tested against six high-class 2m chasers in the Game Spirit, should connections feel so bullish, though the first firm up still made him a [4/6] poke on Monday afternoon. Other firms, later up, go as short as [1/2].
One of that opposing sextet, Djelo, was also installed at [11/4] by the same firm for a decidedly winnable Denman Chase (eight entries), a race in which they made Bravemansgame, hardly in rude health himself, their early [6/4] favourite. He has since become available at 2s, unsurprisingly.
That ain’t a great entry for an 85k Grade 2 – I was being charitable with “decidedly winnable” – but we are where we are.
And Sir Gino himself has been given the easier option of taking on L’Eau du Sud in the Kingmaker at Warwick on Saturday.
Maybe they will decline Newbury given that looks a serious test for him – most of the UK outsiders for the Champion Chase haven’t shirked this, for now at least – on just his second chase start?
However, it looks like Newbury is the preferred target.
“Sir Gino is in great form,” said Nicky Henderson. “I’ll put him in at Warwick as well as Newbury but the great thing is the weather forecast for the week is lovely, so we might be looking at some nice ground. Newbury is the plan but we’re in at Warwick as a back up.”
Hold your bets on Edwardstone though as it sounds like they may wait for Ascot over 2m5f a week on Saturday.
Warwick’s five-day entries are pretty pitiful, with their ITV races attracting field sizes of just six, seven and 12, and with double-entries liable to claim some of those (see below).
I may be back with more copy later when more prices filter through.
If I were a bookmaker, I wouldn’t be in a rush to price up the Warwick races ante-post though, given the double-entries in already tiny fields (see below).
Bizarrely, one firm have actually priced up the Kingmaker without Sir Gino in the market, which tells you one thing.
They shouldn’t have priced it up.
Others that have (effectively two others) will soon close their book if they get even a sniff of a bet for Sir Gino at [7/4].
I had a bit of spare time, so I thought I would add a little update on Tuesday morning, if only to familiarise myself with the ante-post markets ahead of the weekend column.
A healthy five-day entry of 21 for this 3m52yd handicap hurdle – note to sponsors: it isn’t a good idea to have two William Hill Handicap Hurdles on the same card (over to you, Pencil Man and others of his ilk) – though 10 have alternative engagements this week.
In fact, Shanagh Bob, a general [11/2] and [6/1] chance, has been declared to run at Doncaster on Thursday, so definitely do not back him. They have a 7.30am inspection there now, though.
He is actually 5s favourite with one firm, and the [9/2] jolly with another.
How’s that work then?
Keable is as short as 4s with one firm but he could go to Exeter on Sunday for a Pertemps qualifier, as could a few of these.
I know this race has been won by the likes of the 143-rated Zanza in recent years (and Eldorado Allen took this in 2022) but this looks a modest enough renewal.
The 13yo Sam Brown is a general 12s chance.
Bravemansgame is something of a favourite by default in this after a lack-lustre performance in the King George – his price ranges from [11/8] to 2s – and this is a race I can easily leave alone until the final field is known.
The 3s second favourite Djelo is also in the Game Spirit, and Eldorado Allen and Fugitif could go for the veterans’ race at Warwick (it sounds like connections of Fugitif are leaning towards running him here but nothing is set in stone)
Hitman anyone?
It’s a pretty bold move by Nicky Henderson to send Sir Gino up against seasoned 160+ chasers in this, as well as improvers like Matata (officially the same horse as Sir Gino at these weights) and Libberty Hunter, on only his second chase start.
But Altior won this at [3/10] in 2017 en route to winning the Arkle, beating the 167-rated Fox Norton, so Henderson has trodden this path before.
Indeed, Sprinter Sacre won this as a novice too in 2012 (after two chase starts).
Altior had three chase starts before this race, and eight in bumpers and hurdles, so Sir Gino is a less experienced unit.
But, judged on Kempton, he is a premier weapon. He is a stand-out [8/13] in a place, but [1/2] is a more representative price.
Just be aware Sir Gino is also in the Kingmaker at Warwick, but this is Plan A, it seems.
As stated above though, Edwardstone may not run here, so hold fire on backing him.
As I have said above, I don’t have any interest in these races.
And I am probably not alone.
Indeed, most bookmakers have given them a swerve.
It looks like Warwick and ITV are re-jigging the running order and times, but not the races (I’ve just re-ordered them below, in fact).
Going – Soft, good to soft in places (Take offs/ landings & vulnerable areas being covered today)
Going stick readings – Chase: 3.7; Hurdle: 3.8 (Monday 7am)
Weather: Relatively dry
Wednesday course update: “1mm rain yesterday (61mm since 23rd January). Forecast: Leaf frost this morning, currently sunny with highs of 9C today. Forecast a -1C/ -2C tonight, with sunshine tomorrow morning & clouding over late afternoon, highs of 7C/ 8C. Cloudy into Friday morning with lows of +1C and remains cloudy, daytime highs of +4C. Risk of wintery showers Saturday morning (sleet or snow), lows of +1C and highs of just +4C for racing. Will continue to monitor.”
Rails: Hurdles: Inside (fresh ground, not raced on this season) Chase: full width (inside last raced on December 28th) Split bends in place (all fresh ground)
Going – Soft
Going stick reading – 5.5 (Monday 9am)
Weather: Relatively dry
Wednesday course update: “2.5mm fell yesterday afternoon. Temperatures dropped to 1c last night. Sunny day today with highs of 7c. A cold night tonight with lows of -2c, but temperatures not due to drop below 0c again before racing. 2.5mm of sleet forecast Friday afternoon. Dry with highs of 4c on race day.”
Rails: We will be running on the INNER hurdle track.
1.50pm Newbury (21 five-day entries): Colours On Canvas, Itseemslikeit, Keable, Kruger Park, Lossiemouth, Shanagh Bob (entered overnight at Doncaster on Thursday – 7.30am inspection there), The Four Sixes, The Lord Maid, Tiny Tetley, Up For Parol
2.05pm Warwick (6): Casa No Mento, Sir Gino
2.25pm Newbury (8): Djelo, Eldorado Allen, Fugitif
2.40pm Warwick (7): Molto Bene, Royale Margaux, Sunday Soldier, You Wear It Well
3pm Newbury (7) Djelo, Sir Gino
3.15pm Warwick (12): Eldorado Allen, Fugitif, Credo, Grandads Cottage, Gustavian, Straw Fan Jack (entered overnight at Kempton on Friday)
3.35pm Newbury (23): Beat The Bat, King William Rufus
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