TONY CALVIN: Make Me King to take advantage of some favourable handicapping in International

It’s a Group 1 Saturday of racing but it is not that interesting from a betting point of view, if truth be told.

A couple of sprint handicaps (including the jump jockeys’ 0-80 Nunthorpe) and a five-runner Group 2 at York were not overly-appealing on first viewing and they didn’t improve massively with the benefit of time – however, some positivity returned when I saw S Club were playing after racing – and Ascot’s four ITV races didn’t initially strike me as premier betting heats either, the Moet and Chandon aside.

But you go through your tipping processes – pace maps, trainer-form assessments, headgears stats (just one first-time angle there this weekend) – and, crucially, wait for the revised prices to drop, and see if they hold until you publish on Friday.

Then you can make your final betting decisions, and selections.

3.40pm Ascot – Let’s start with the King George then

The numbers for the King George at 15:40 stood up well – only Continuous and Point Lonsdale came out at the overnight stage, and hopefully Bluestocking is allowed to take her chance on the likely fast ground – so let’s start there.

Six of the nine are Group 1 winners, so I think it is fair to say that the race has a lot more depth than Auguste Rodin’s price suggests. He is [5/4] across the board, with one firm sticking their necks out with [6/4].

We all know that Auguste Rodin is a very good horse when putting it altogether – six Group 1 wins tells you that – but, taking a detached, over-arching view, does he really deserve to be rated as high as 123?

Indeed, he was on 125 after his Breeders’ Cup win last season.

I’d say Rebel’s Romance’s two-length Sheema Classic win in March – a race in which the favourite had one of his off-days – is at least the equal of the best of the Ballydoyle colt’s premier performances, and arguably better, and the price differential between the pair is bang wrong.

Of course, just because Rebel’s Romance, unbeaten in five starts in the UK as well as five Group/Grade 1 wins abroad, is a much better price than Auguste Rodin doesn’t necessarily translate to him being a bet at an industry-best [4/1] – available in three places as this goes live – as there happens to be seven other runners here, four of which have also won in the highest grade.

Mind you, I wouldn’t lay 4s about the Godolphin horse myself, though [7/2] is a more representative price, and that is what AKBets are currently trading at.

If I were a bookmaker, I’d also be happy to get Auguste Rodin in the can as big as [6/4], and have the field running for me at [4/6].

I imagine Ralph Beckett and Juddmonte will make a late call on the participation of Bluestocking (on whom the cheekpieces are re-applied, having been left off for her Pretty Polly win last time), after presumably walking the track on Saturday.

Ascot have tried their best for them with watering this week (see below for details) but it will surely be very much on the quick side if they haven’t badly overdone it on that front. If the filly comes out there will be a fair rule 4, probably 15p in the pound.

Of the remainder, Luxembourg is probably the overpriced one of the lot at a best-priced [12/1], though generally 11s and 10s. The 14s in a place was quickly taken on Thursday.

A three-time Group 1 winner, with only 1/2-length to find with Auguste Rodin on their Irish Champion Stakes form last season, he comes here on the back of a Coronation Cup win over the trip.

I’m not entirely sold on a stamina-sapping 1m4f being his bag, but you can see him sitting handy behind pacemaker Hans Andersen, with the favourite behind him, and he could get first run on his stablemate coming into the straight.

However, the more I looked at the race, the more I could let it pass me by without a bet and a tip. And it is not as if the Ballydoyle trio will definitely get it all their own way on the front end – or, rather, they shouldn’t – with Rebel’s Romance, Goliath and Sunway also in here. That trio don’t want a dawdle and sprint.

If you want me to shit or get off the pot (I think that was an early-episode Line Of Duty phrase, and a beauty it is, too), I’d say if you want a betting interest in the race, then Rebel’s Romance each way at 4s is the best trade. Even if Bluestocking comes out, we still have eight runners and three places.

But I am somewhat reluctant to stick it up here, for some indefinable reason; however, if you can access the 4s then please do. And do it each way, I reckon.

It is probably not the cleanest bet, in truth – hence my reluctance here perhaps – but bookmakers dictate their prices and place terms, so it isn’t your fault for responding to their offer….

3.00pm Ascot – still keen on Bless Him but I want a second string to my betting bow

I put up Bless Him at [25/1] each way, four places, with AK Bets on Tuesday – he was that price in 14 other places on the Oddschecker grid at the time, so I wasn’t cherry-picking  – and I am happy with that play, given he has shortened across the board and now ranges between 14s and 16s in the marketplace, with 18s popping up in a place on Friday morning.

In addition, the field has cut up to just 18 runners, some 11 below the maximum allowed.

It obviously remains a hugely competitive handicap but the 10yo Bless Him has excellent course form, including in this race (short-head second to Fresh in 2022 off a 4lb higher mark), remains well weighted and will love the ground. He also comes in here in pretty good nick.

However, I am worried about the lack of pace in here for this late-closer (as I was on Tuesday, to be fair) and it will be a case of watching-through-your-fingers as Jamie Spencer tries to weave a passage from off the pace, from trap 16 of 18.

Have a defibrillator at the ready if you have had a win and place lump.

I won’t press up but I do want another second string to my betting bow.

Narrowing down which one was predictably tricky.

The market leaders have obvious claims – I wouldn’t worry about Ryan Moore declining to ride Carrytheone again as he probably doesn’t want to be in a rush afterwards, with the all-important Auguste Rodin next up in the big one – and I can fully see the case for New Image too, though his price ebbed away through Thursday and that ship has probably sailed to an each-way degree. That said, the [17/2], five places, in one spot is okay, given his rate of progression.

And I was also surprised to see Ropey Guest as big as 40s in three places on Thursday morning, not that it lasted too long. There is still some 33s, five places, and a general 25s, knocking about, though.

And please note that the firm offering six places on this race are not even joint top-price about any of the 18 runners; this massive trade-off for punters needs to be acknowledged.

I just can’t get my head around the handicapping of Make Me King, and he is my fresh bet in the race. He is [14/1] in 11 places, including with AK, and that is too big for me to ignore.

I looked at him earlier in the week and I couldn’t work out why the handicapper only put him up 1lb for a dominant 2 ¼-length victory from an in-form favourite at Newcastle last time. That means he is actually 2lb badly-in under his 3lb penalty, but I can’t be having that.

Sure, this will be a different test back on turf here – and I am not saying that Newcastle race was a particularly deep handicap – but it is not as if he hasn’t got bags of form on the green stuff, including when eighth to owner-mate English Oak at Royal Ascot previously.

He went hard from the front that day and there is more than a slight suspicion he could have been sacrificed to tee it up for the better-fancied Wathnan horse English Oak, who tracked him throughout on the near rail and took it up from him approaching the furlong pole.

He was ridden less aggressively at Newcastle last time but he is tactically-versatile (he has gone from the front before, but it sounds like his trainer wants him to be ridden more conservatively now) and I just think 14s underestimates what he did last time, just the second time he has worn the cheekpieces that have been retained here.

And he was a fair tool when previously racing in Group company in France and in the Middle East, latterly with his current trainer.

I’ll play win-only at 14s.

Ideally, I wouldn’t want to go any lower to get filled – he wouldn’t be an obvious shortener, even if I think the current price is generous – though 12s is okay at a push. Remember AKBets pay the standard each way terms.

1.50pm Ascot – Maiden Simmering may be ready to come to winning boil

Those of you familiar with my work will know that I rarely tip at [3/1] or less – and that when I do I have a shocking record. I had a very good bet on Ylang Ylang in the Oaks, and she came back with pulled muscles all around the shop and hasn’t been seen since, which just shows you what can go wrong.

And what you need to go right when playing shorties.

And, in addition, I also tend to shy away from juvenile races.

So it won’t be a massive surprise that I am giving the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at 1.50pm a swerve, especially as I don’t think the [7/4] favourite Simmering is too bad a price. And that price, available in four places, is probably coming under pressure. The 2s in the marketplace was taken on Friday morning.

Obviously, it is hard to be confident here with a raft of similarly unexposed fillies in opposition, three of which are once-raced winners, but Simmering brings the best form and time-figure credentials to the party on her Albany second, a race in which she split two Ballydoyle fillies.

It could be significant that Aidan O’Brien didn’t confirm his January for the race, and Ryan Moore was therefore available to ride Simmering, but, either way, I think the favourite could take a fair bit of whacking.

But personally I don’t like backing and tipping at these prices in horseracing – see above – especially when you are up against so many unknowns.

What early money was doing the rounds on Thursday was for Haydock winner Definitive and, as I am sure you will hear a few times in the next 24 hours, when a Clive Cox newcomer wins they are often pretty smart.

And I thought Newbury winner Handcuffed had chances, too.

And each-way punters, watch out. We already have the dead-eight in here after Miss El Fundi came out on Thursday morning with a bad scope.

People think I am lying when I say that, in the old days, at least one firm had a specific department to try to get non-runners (presumably by chucking trainers a few quid) to change the each-way terms of races in their favour.

Two people, subsequently senior TV executives, admitted to me that they worked in one.

So don’t shoot the messenger….

2.25pm Ascot – Friendly Soul could well get back on track

Each-way punters need to look lively again in here, with just the eight, and it is a very tricky heat win-only, too.

I’ll admit I did manage to get a little bit on Friendly Soul at 6s on Thursday, as I think it is a risk worth taking that she can prove her Musidora running all wrong.

She went off an [8/11] poke at York but Kieran Shoemark got off and said she was unsteerable after hanging the whole race. Given that she has been absent since that run on May 15, I’d say that something reasonably serious came to light. I tried to find out the reason, but I couldn’t.

So there is always a risk she could need this first run back after a bad experience,

But she was so impressive when beating Kalpana over 1m2f in a quick time at Newmarket previously – and the runner-up is now rated 107 after dotting up in Listed company at Hamilton last time – that she is probably the overpriced one here at a generally-available 5s (in seven places), even if there are obvious risks attached.

I’ll take my chances at that [5/1] – that is what is on offer in seven places on the Oddschecker grid – and AK’s [9/2] is acceptable too, as a minimum guide price.

2.05pm York – Oh look, it is the jump jockeys’ 0-80 Nunthorpe

If you think this is a good betting heat, seek help.

Sprint handicaps are nigh on impossible at the best of times, and that is before 19 National Hunt riders go at it hammer and tongs over one of the quickest 5f around. I counted at least 11 that like to go forward here (see pace map below).

I have literally no interest in having a bet, though I suppose at least Charlie Deutsch is used to travelling at high speeds.

Sorry, I must have made that joke at least a dozen times now….

2.40pm York – Silky Wilkie appeals but not at current price

As I have mentioned above, sprint handicaps are so hard to call – they are racing’s version of roulette – but Silky Wilkie does have a lot going for him in here.

Bar the all-important price, significantly.

I know we should always concentrate on where the price is going and not where it has been, but he was 12s on Tuesday and he is now half those odds, even allowing for the field cutting up to 14 runners.

A price of around 8s may tempt me in on the day as he ran a screamer when second to Jordans Electric (winner of six of his last six starts) at Hamilton, he has run well on all four starts at York, and a mark of 99 is very workable on his best form.

Put it this way, he was rated 110 when second in a Listed race here over 5f last July and that Hamilton form over 6f last time was probably his best effort this season.

In isolation, he has a lot going for him but the nature of these races means a decent case can be made for each and every one of these 14 sprint handicappers, and you have to go to war only when the price is right.

At 6s and [11/2] – the one piece of [13/2] in the marketplace was taken late on Thursday – it just isn’t there for me as it stands.

3.15pm York – Lack of guaranteed pace means a tactical race is in store

Just five runners for a 135k pot is clearly disappointing – and I am wondering whether Royal Rhyme will be risked on the likely quick ground – but, on the other side of the coin, all of the big guns from the five-day stage have stood their ground.

Passenger, Alflaila and King’s Gambit are a pretty exciting trio to lock horns, but I imagine the lack of guaranteed pace in here is going to play on the minds of all the trainers. No doubt the jockeys will have a good chat beforehand, though.

Ancient Rome did make the running in the Wolferton two starts ago but he is usually ridden far more icily, and none of the others have shown any appetite in the past to force it from the front. And Ancient Rome has just come out with a bruised foot, so we are down to four runners, no each way, and no pace.

More importantly, I couldn’t see any juice in any of the prices either, so I am happy to leave well alone and watch the cat and mouse tactics unfold.

Oh, and I should say that I like the way York keep watering to a minimum. They only put on 2mm on Tuesday and Wednesday, and 3mm on Thursday. The ground is currently good to firm, good in places.

Good luck.

BETS

Friendly Soul at [5/1] win-only in 2.25pm at Ascot (9/2 and upwards is okay). Available with seven firms.

Make Me King at [14/1] win-only in 3pm at Ascot. Available with 11 firms, including with AKBets

ANTE-POST BET

From Tuesday: Bless Him at [25/1] each way, four places, in Moet & Chandon International Stakes at 3pm at Ascot on Saturday. Available with 15 firms, including with AKBets. 

BALLOTED OUT HORSES

None

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Michael Dods cheekpieces 9-115 since 2016

GOING/WEATHER

ASCOT

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK READINGS: Straight – stands side: 7.6; centre: 7.4; far side: 7.5;  Round 6.9 – taken at 8.30am on Thursday

WEATHER: Dry on Friday and Saturday

WATERING – 20mm put on straight course so far this week; 10mm on round course; Friday watering TBC

YORK

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK READING: 6.9 as at 6.15am on Thursday

WEATHER: Dry on Friday and Saturday

WATERING: 2mm put on Tuesday and Wednesday; 3mm on Thursday

IMPORTANT NEWS: S Club after playing after racing….

PACE MAPS

1.50pm Ascot:  Little evidence but no guaranteed pace-setter to date – Alice Fairfax (prominent), Aviation Time (prom), Betty Clover (prom), Definitive (prom), Handcuffed (prom)

2.25pm Ascot: Julia Augusta, Thornbrook?

3.00pm Ascot – very little pace, and no obvious front-runner: Make My King? (drawn 4), Ropey Guest? (10), Dancing Magic? (11)

3.40pm Ascot:  Hans Andersen, Luxembourg, Goliath?, Rebel’s Romance (prominent), Sunway?

2.05pm York:  Never Dark (13), Night On Earth (4), Princess Karine (11), Strong Johnson (17), Ghathanfar (10), Leodis Dream (15), Whisky McGonagall (18), Another Baar (7), Woobay (8), Birkenhead (16), Golden Rainbow (2)

2.40pm York:  Brazen Bolt? (6), Bergerac? (5), Radio Goo Goo (2), Dapper Valley (8), Trefor (7), Manila Scouse (12)

3.15pm York:  Ancient Rome? (and he has just withdrawn with a bruised foot)

TRAINERFORM (does not include Friday’s racing) 

EXCELLENT: Charlie Appleby. David Menuisier, F-H Graffard, Andrew Balding, Adrian Keatley, David O’Meara

GOOD: Sir Mark Prescott, Geoge Boughey, Ian Williams, Stuart Williams. John and Thady Gosden, Ruth Carr, Karl Burke, David Evans, Owen Burrows, Aidan O’’Brien, Kevin Ryan, James Fanshawe. Joseph O’Brien, Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Spencer, Bryan Smart (winnerless but going well)

FAIR:  Jane Chapple-Hyam, Gary and Josh Moore, William Haggas, H Al Jehani, Michael Dods, Eve Johnson Houghton, Paul Midgley, Dylan Cunha, Mick Appleby, Declan Carroll, Rebecca Menzies (though could do with more winners), Richard Fahey, Charles Hills, Harry Charlton, Jack Channon (arguably borderline moderate), David Simcock (could do with more winners), Sir Michael Stoute (6-1 winner on Thursday), Clive Cox, Richard Hughes, Richard Hannon, Tim Easterby, John and Sean Quinn, Ollie Sangster

MODERATE: George Margarson (not many runners), Michael Bell, Iain Jardine, David and Nicola Barron, Tracy Waggott, Danny Brooke (not many runners), Tom Tate (not many runners), Roger Teal, Ralph Beckett (arguably more fair, as he is having some winners)