By Tony Calvin - 3 October 2026
After an unseasonably hot Friday, Turftrax are now calling it good, good to firm in places (8.2 from 7.4 on going stick) at Longchamp on Saturday, though France Galop’s penetrometer is only 3.4 from 3.5 (unlike the going stick, the lower the reading the firmer the ground in France), so they are basically going with good.
So a slight difference of opinion there, Geoffrey.
And, remarkably, both of the above are unchanged on Sunday morning after what looked a dry, sunny and warm day throughout Saturday.
What seems assured is that the ground can only tighten up, with the forecast (see below) – I’ve seen some live shots of the track this morning and it is glorious sunshine – and that is bad news for a few, among them possibly Thundering On among those in single figures. I think she is a hugely talented filly though and she is well drawn in three, if they decide to ride her more forcefully.
If they don’t, then she will need a lot of luck. But if she gets the breaks, and doesn’t find the ground too lively, then she is a player at 11s best with AKBets.
Of course, the draw has Robert Kilroy Silk-shafted a few too, notably Maltese Cross in 11 and even worse, Diamond Necklace, who is in 16 of 16, which has prompted Ryan Moore get off her and jump on Benvenuto Cellini.
As it is, as at 12.37pm on Saturday, AKBets are top price about every horse in the race bar Bright Light.
Let’s hope they are right about that one.
Read on….
Mind you, I am not sure the Irish Derby winner is ideally berthed in one , unless they switch tactics and try to to bounce him out.
Which they could do, as the pace map in here is very murky.
But the horse has to play ball out of the gates, which I seem to remember he hasn’t done at least once this season…
Earlier in the week (I have included my extensive ante-post column below for reference), I nominated four possible pace angles; Friendly Soul, Meisho Tabaru (I could have seen him from a lower draw but his price hasn’t changed after getting trap 13), Arrow Eagle and Bay City Roller.
But they have been housed in seven, 13, 14 and 15 respectively, so hardly ideal if you are thinking of pressing on.
The wider-drawn horses will obviously need to use up a lot of gas to get on the front end which will compromise their chances late on, while I very much doubt if Friendly Soul will be asked to go on, as she was in the Vermeille, her first attempt at 1m4f.
This is a whole different ball game and ideally I’d say they’d want her to take a lead.
So the race fundamentals – ground and pace – are hard to be bullish about at the moment.
At least Saturday’s race times will tell us a lot more as regards the going.
It’s not a race that really gets the punting blood up – and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing any in this race (well outside of Chestnut Rocket), as it is wide open if the favourite underperforms – and I am afraid to say that I think if you back Daryz win-only at 19/10 with AKBets and Kalpana each-way at 5s, four places, then I suspect you will end up with a profit on the race.
Both have got very lucky with the draw in five and six, and Daryz is totally justified at the top of the market.
And, whatever anyone tells you, this is a big draw race on decent ground, especially with the rail set-up on Sunday.
There is not much to say about either horse that you don’t already know.
I am not worried about the likelihood of fast ground for last year’s winner Daryz, which some have suggested may be a negative.
Timeform called it good to firm when he beat Bay City Roller in the Foy, which brought his record at Longchamp to seven from eight, with the only blemish a short-head second in his Arc prep last season.
His only two other defeats came on his ventures to the UK, and admittedly he ran very tamely when third to Ombudsman in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes in June, beaten nearly six lengths.
And if you are trying to quibble further with his price of 15/8 you can question how strong was his narrow defeat of Minnie Hauk (who has hardly pulled up any trees this season) in this race last year?
I’d say very strong myself, given the runner-up was in flying form going into the race and they pulled a mile of Sosie (who won the Hong Kong Vase on his next start) in third.
No matter what Daryz has done this season, I think the performances of two others in here stand out above him in 2026.
The first is Bay City Roller, whose 10-length defeat of Jan Brueghel in the Coronation Cup was a superb effort, for all it was run in worsening ground.
But I’d rather back him at 20/1 with a low draw and a bit of ease, rather than the current 40s on quickening ground from an awful berth.
I may have a tenner win-only at around 50.0 on Betfair just in case (I have done) but I really wanted him a low draw for him to kick on from the front, and stall 15 is hugely problematical on that score.
However good that Epsom success was, the best middle distance performance of 2026 was probably Kalpana’s 1 1/2-length defeat of Calandagan on fast ground in the King George, though maybe the presence of Lambourn (beaten just 4 1/2 lengths) in fourth would raise a doubt or two there.
It does actually.
The concerns about her are two-fold; her performance in this contest last season and the fact that she must have had a very hard race when scrambling home in the Yorkshire Oaks last time (a race rendered a bit of a joke by the scalded-cat front-running tactics of Sugar Island).
But I’ll give her a pass for last year’s Arc, where she was drawn wide and wasn’t given an optimal ride on ground maybe a touch too soft, and she bounced back after that effort to win as she pleased 13 days later at Ascot on Champions Day.
So she is plenty tough enough, it seems.
From stall six (10 last year), there should be no excuses for Colin Keane here. And a top-four spot is surely the minimum of their ambitions.
Arrow Eagle and Bay City Roller have been done no favours by the weather or the draw (14 and 15) – which is a bit of a ballache as I backed the former, sixth last year, at 200.0+ ante-post in the hope he would be berthed in single figures and be kicked out in front. As well as the course getting the 20mm that was initially forecasted by Wednesday.
And the ground could possibly be going against Bright Light (bought for a whopping 1.9m euros at the sales on Saturday night), too.
However, I am backing him regardless (averaging 197.27 at the moment) and I definitely would back him each way, four places, at 150/1 if I had access to Stoke (125/1 and 100/1 for the Non-Potters).
She is now 150/1 with three firms on Sunday morning, so that’s where to go for one of the wildest swings in the race.
Unfortunately I can’t get a penny on with any of them.
The modern of delights of betting in 2026.
If he can hold a decent midfield position from his draw in eight – no given as he can start slowly, and he doesn’t want to be doing that here – he could surprise.
Though the very limit of said surprise may be fourth place, admittedly.
I made the argument for him in my ante-post column, but i’ll re-state it here.
Basically, this is only his seventh start, having made his debut in April – shades of Highwayman in the Leger, hopefully – and he looked a strong stayer at this 1m4f trip when sticking on into third behind Saddadd in the Grosser Preis Von Baden last time.
The trainer said the track was rutted and very quick that day, so far from ideal, and he was beaten only a neck by Tiffany on good ground in a Group 1 at Hoppegarten previously. He could have beaten the mare, a subsequent Grade 2 winner in Kentucky form Ethical Diamond, in another few strides that day.
I suspect he could find this all happening a bit too quickly, and he could be a 1000.0 after a furlong if he blows the start again – but no way am I ignoring him at these odds.
Bright Light, Big City.
150/1.
I don’t have much of a betting opinion elsewhere on an underwhelming Arc undercard – bar the Prix de l’Opera.
I’ll have another look on Sunday morning.
Anyway, I have been tracking the campaign of Beautify this season – honestly, guv – and I was very tempted to rush this race preview out early on Saturday morning when I saw she was put in at 66/1 by some firms for this race.
But there is little point in that, is there.
I think this is a very good spot for Beautify though so, while the 66s has disappeared, I am very happy to row in with her each-way at 40s (available with six firms on Sunday morning – with the 50s disappearing at 7.47am)
I just hope she isn’t in here as a bloody pacemaker for stablemate Precise, and that is an obvious doubt.
But she who dares Rodney, she who dares.
Beautify was a high-class (ish) 2yo, finishing a ¾ length second to the aforementioned Precise in the Group 1 Moyglare (Venetian Sun was in third), but fifth place is the best she has managed in six starts this season.
Hardly the stuff of a horse that has kicked on in her second season of racing then.
But, dig a bit deeper, and it isn’t quite as bad as it looked.
She was thought badly in need of the run on her return in the Nell Gwyn ; she was then a respectable sixth to Precise in the Irish 1,000 Guineas before admittedly three underwhelming runs in Group 1 company, albeit showing a hint on each occasion, especially in the Pretty Polly.
I actually thought she would have had an outside chance in the Oaks, an option she didn’t take up, but I was told her stride pattern data would suggest she wouldn’t have had a cat in hell’s chance of staying 1m4f.
I am convinced (well reasonably confident) that there is still a Group 1 filly in there somewhere, especially after her run last time., which was probably a career-best.
I thought she ran an eye-catchingly good race when a three-length fifth in a Vermeille run in course record time over 1m4f last time (yes, 1m4f).
Buried away on the inside, and third-last turning in, she was smuggled up the inside under minimal assistance from Christophe Soumillon and she was never closer than at the line.
It looked like a tee-up job for something.
Hopefully, this.
If the stride merchants are right, then a more forcing ride over this shorter 1m2f trip could just see her make a mockery of her current rating of 103.
Put it this way, I’d like to back her off that mark in a 1m2f handicap.
None of this sacrificial pacemaking bollocks though please – and there is no need for the Lads to utilise her as such as Timeforshowcasing, Venetian Lace and Jennifer Jane can also go forward and have done – as I quite like the each-way shape of the race.
Sure, the top four in the betting all have their chances, but none of them particular scares me and I easily like Beautify best of the others.
I have backed her on Betfair too, and am currently averaging over 70.0 there.
She is now a general 50s.
GOING: Good, good to firm in places (Turftrax)
Turftrax: 8.2 – unchanged from Saturday
Penetrometer unchanged at 3.4 , too
Weather (7.42am Saturday): 23 degrees and sunny
RAILS
Reminder of the rail position on Saturday and Sunday
After no racing for four weeks, the rail will be positioned at 15 metres on the final straight and 8 metres throughout the remainder of the track.
The rail will be moved back to zero (0 metres).
On this day, there will be a 6m Cut-away at 450m from the winning post.
Firstly, the going.
They had 2.5mm of rain at Longchamp on Monday and the revised Tuesday morning penetrometer reading of 3.4 equates to a mixture of good and good to firm , I am reliably informed by those who know far better than me.
Whether they water will depend on how much rain they get through Wednesday, as it is dry and warm thereafter (2.5mm Sunday morning).
The main site I use currently has 9.3mm landing tomorrow but it was only 2.1mm in the early hours on Tuesday; changeable then, so keep an eye on that.
They got 7.5mm on Wednesday and the penetrometer reading is now 3.7
Live draws are pretty much ridiculed in the UK, with the Ebor one this year a particular Tour De Farce – though they are welcomed by the accountants of those hosting… – but the French have said “Hold My Vin Rouge” when it comes to the Arc this year.
They are doing the draw behind closed doors – and under the supervision of an independent auditor, whatever that means – straight after the close of declarations at 9.30am UK time on Thursday but they will not be unveiled until the evening ceremony (I am not sure what time that kicks off but I will endeavour to miss it).
Didn’t anyone tell them that racing leaks like a sieve – and presumably connections of all the runners are told in the morning, too? (I have asked if that is indeed the case – I am awaiting an answer).
Good luck with that secretive project.
That said, I appreciate the French don’t give a stuff about UK fixed-odds betting markets and news leaking out (plus the fact that UK bookmakers, cautious at the best of times, will not be taking any lumpy bets in The Forbidden Zone). so if it works for them promotionally, then so be it.
The draw can obviously be crucial in this race, as we saw last year when the first three home came from stalls 2,1,3, with trap 5 in fourth.
Shades of Chester at Longchamp….
The pace – Maisho Tabaru (has made it), Arrow Eagle (possibly), Bay City Roller (unlikely runner?) and Friendly Soul (looks like a runner now but not sure they will go forward in a big field, though that may be draw-dependent)
It could be that Aidan O’Brien clocks the potential lack of guaranteed pace on paper and supplements a pacemaker tomorrow (though hopefully not the scalded-cat variety).
Possibly the dual Classic winner Lambourn?
It was pointed out to me that the horse was taken out of the Cadran today.
But he could utilise Minnie Hauk, I suppose, if he wants a forward-goer.
No pacemaker was added.
As at 9am on Tuesday, we had 19 in the race (there is another forfeit stage later this morning), though it could in effect be 20 if Friendly Soul takes up the free supplementary option following her win-and-you’re (WAYI) in the Prix Vermeille.
And it sounds like they are going to, which makes total sense.
Big John rolling the big dice again with a free bet.
Update: Sunly has been scratched this morning along with Pearled Majesty (more of him below), Light The Ghost and Tattycoram, too , so we are down to a maximum of 16.
As it is, we currently have 15 (Friendly Soul yet to be confirmed – think that needs to be by Wednesday), with more supplementary/elimination stages to come.
Obviously, last year’s winner Daryz sits astride the market at 7/4, and no-one could really argue with that assessment after getting back on the horse, so to speak, following that disappointing Royal Ascot third, with a fluent dismissal of Bay City Roller in the Foy last time (on ground Timeform called good to firm).
He is only a short-head away from being eight from eight at Longchamp.
As we are talking about Daryz, we may as well deal with last year’s head runner-up Minnie Hauk. The third, Sosie, was 5 1/2 lengths adrift of that pair that day.
That clearly makes her of interest at 16s (five points bigger win-only on the exchange market) but it does take a leap of faith to get with her here considering her faltering season. But her third to Kalpana in a muddling Yorkshire Oaks last time, in a race messed up by pacemaker Sugar Island, wasn’t totally devoid of promise and she handles quick ground.
Others returning from last year include the sixth Arrow Eagle (he was drawn 16 and I had a 125/1 each-way swing on him there and was a bit miffed, as he should have finished third on the deep ground in which he excels – this is Jean Claude-Rouget’s career swansong and the 52yo Ioritz Mendizabal takes the ride again, which is probably not a positive), and the seventh Kalpana , obviously on the back of an excellent season.
For some reason, Kalpana, drawn 10 and perhaps not given an optimum ride when beaten 7 lengths here last season, was one of the first off my list after that scrambling York win last time.
It is just a price thing as the general 6s (and 7s in a couple of spots) does nothing for me, for all she has a clear time and form chance.
Perhaps it should though, looking at the likely field and the merit of her King George win.
Nothing scares you, outside of the favourite.
Six of the Classic generation are set to be represented and the shortest among them is general 5s poke Maltese Cross; there is clearly plenty to like about this improver but, once again, his price does nothing for me.
And just how strong is his form anyway?
You can obviously upgrade the Derby runner-up’s narrow Grand Prix De Paris win on fast ground over course and distance in July and he won the Voltigeur in good style under a 5lb penalty last time, but I would certainly not be going overboard about either line of form in Arc-winning terms.
He looks underpriced at 5s in my book.
Thundering On is more like it at 10s ; when she is good, she is very good.
She returned coughing when weak in the market when a modest fourth in the Pretty Polly at The Curragh in July (on good to firm) but she was visually stunning in the Oaks and in the Blandford Stakes last time, for all neither victory stood out on the clock.
She has a French filly-like swagger about her and she would interest me most of the horses trading in single figures, though one outfit has just gone 10s about her.
And, maybe crucially, she would want ease in the ground.
Diamond Necklace is a general 10s and the dual French Classic winner is bang in the hunt here on her Goodwood dismissal of Friendly Soul. And I would give her a pass for her defeat by an on-song Aventure (Arc 2024 runner-up) over 1m2f on soft ground in the Prix Romanet last time.
She is a very plausible winner, for all 1m4f is an unknown.
BUT, with Thundering On and Friendly Soul in here, will connections be tempted by the Opera (over 1m2f) again? (an observation nicked from Ande Humphrey on X…)
I haven’t warmed to her stablemate Benvenuto Cellini at all this season, and the Irish Derby winner has a lot to prove here. That is why he is 25s, though.
Varandir, stablemate/ownermate of Daryz, is a fair second bullet for his connections and he currently trades as the 16/1 seventh favourite. That’s a fair price.
Fourth to Maltese Cross in that bunch finish, he cut down the pacemaker won and nicely in the Prix Niel, but I thought Pearled Majesty shaped very well under a gentle ride in third in that race, so I went looking for a price about him, only to see he had just been scratched along with Sunly, Tattycoram and Light The Ghost.
Maybe they wanted a lot more ease for him, and Ascot in October is apparently the plan there now (though it may be even quicker in Berkshire…).
Bright Light is the other 3yo in the race and it would take a bit of explaining if he won, looking at the balance of his form. But this is only his seventh start, having made his debut in April, and he looked a strong stayer at this 1m4f trip when sticking on into third behind Saddadd in the Grosser Preis Von Baden last time.
Having watched that race a couple of times, I probably wouldn’t be as dismissive about his chance as Betfair quotes of 200.0+ suggest , though maybe he would want a bit more dig than is likely to make his remote chance a more plausible outside one.
He is 100s, three places at the moment (all firms are three places, which is probably doing little for ante-post trade).
That said, if he is 100/1+ on the day with extra place (s) – which he surely will be, if running – I could be tempted to part with a few quid. I have never heard of his regular jockey Benjamin Marie, who did look a bit rustic at Baden-Baden, to be fair.
It worked for Luke Morris on Alpinista in 2022, mind you…
And thanks to the person who just pointed out to me that that Bright Light is actually in the sales on Friday (sold with the Arc entry included).
If I can beat off Godolphin, Wathnan Racing and Al Shaqab (none of whom have a runner this year), I may buy him for added interest.
I’m at a loose end on Sunday afternoon outside of the Saracens-Sale match, and a bag should seal the deal for a 100-1 poke, shouldn’t it?
And I fancy seeing off the owners, above come what may…
I was going to be lukewarm about the aforementioned Saddadd, as that German form last time clearly needs a lot of improving on to be winning this, but there is no upside to dismissing him at 40s. That German Group 1 win last time was his first attempt at the 1m4f trip and he clearly got it well enough.
And the more you look at this race, the more it would be foolish to rule out the most unlikely of results.
If Daryz underperforms, this is ripe for an upset.
We have already mentioned Friendly Soul and if she takes up her WAYI golden ticket on Wednesday then she would be another coming in here after winning at the first attempt at the Arc trip last time out. And she looked pretty good when making all in the Vermeille to be fair.
I have no idea whether she will take her chance, though.
Tomorrow will tell us.
If truth be told, I haven’t a clue about the relative merits of the Japanese pair Meisho Tabaru and Admire Terra, 33s and 50s respectively, and I am not going to pretend otherwise. But everyone says they all love good/quick ground over there and a glance at the former’s Takarazuka Kinen Group 1 win in June, from Croix Du Nord and Danon Decile, horses we know well enough, suggests there could be punting legs in him at 33/1.
And, let’s be fair, the 57yo Yutaka Take rode him to that success, so the horse must be good….
I assume Take will be riding the 5yo again here though, and that would be a concern.
He looked all of his years at the Shergar Cup in August, though he did finish third on one of his five mounts there.
George Scott and his owners will be hoping that Longchamp cops all of that 9mm, and more, on Wednesday to allow his Bay City Roller, out to 25s after the dry spell, to take his chance.
On testing ground, he’d play a leading role but that clearly seems unlikely.
And Scott said he wouldn’t run the horse on watered ground, with Plan B being the Champion Stakes at Ascot.
He may have the same problem there, though.
It was good to firm when he was second to Daryz in the Foy, and I’d be tempted to take my chances if I owned him.
Sure, he ideally wants more dig but Timeform have him down as running a number of good efforts in defeat on good to firm since winning on it on his debut.
The last one to mention (I think) is Chestnut Rocket, the outsider of the field at 200/1.
If anyone can make a cogent place claim for that one, I’d be impressed, for all he ran a career best in splitting Al Aasy and Arrow Eagle in deep ground at Deauville last time.
I think I have mentioned all 15 currently in the race, as well as likely supplement Friendly Soul – and, just a reminder trainers and owners can supplement on Wednesday, so we may get a surprise addition, but hopefully not a scalded-cat pacemaker, Aidan – so what’s the conclusion?
Obviously, how much rain they get tomorrow is going to have a huge bearing on the race – as is how much the course will water afterwards, if they don’t get a lot.
As for betting conclusions, as we now stand?
The first is that Daryz is probably not a bad price at 7/4 (2s+ on the exchange, and I wouldn’t be in a rush to lay the 3.25 as at 5.47pm on Tuesday myself) given the underwhelming depth of the race, but we have the unknown draw to factor in at this stage.
Thundering On makes the most appeal of the others immediately behind him at 10s from a talent and form upside perspective, but she may need some cut to be at her best, so that certainly tempers enthusiasm from an ante-post perspective.
Meisho Tabaru looks overpriced on talent at 33s but if Take rides (which he does), then that’d be a concern for me.
And others, no doubt.
As for a wild swing, I like Bright Light (currently for sale – see above) best at three figures. He has shades of Highwayman about him, having only made his debut in April and has been placed in Group 1 company on his last two starts, and he could surprise.
He shapes like a stayer and presumably wants more testing conditions, but I can see the 3yo coming home well if there is a fast and furious pace.
And hopefully a pace collapse.
It may well be shades of Arrow Eagle last year, close to placing at huge odds but no cigar, but I suspect I could be playing him each-way at the weekend.
Let’s see what the weather does.
GOING: Mixture of good and good to soft at moment
Penetrometer reading : Thursday: 3.5
Turftrax: 7.1 ; Good to soft, good in places (as of Thursday morning)
Reminder of the rail position on Saturday and Sunday
After no racing for four weeks, the rail will be positioned at 15 metres on the final straight and 8 metres throughout the remainder of the track.
The rail will be moved back to zero (0 metres).
On this day, there will be a 6m Cut-away at 450m from the winning post.
MONDAY MORNING As of early on Monday morning, there were 30 in the Dewhurst (Aidan…
STATS/INFO SECTION 1. COURSE DETAILS NEWMARKET (Fri-Sat meeting) GOING : Good to firm GOING…
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