King George in focus but this 25-1 shot on Ascot undercard could be an ageing beauty

There is very little editorial curiosity and scrutiny about exactly what finances the Tote and World Pool actually bring to the UK party – and don’t get me started on the guaranteed returns that are now commonplace on the Tote results pages of websites, instead of the actual, raw dividends – but one of the upsides, it seems, is that trainers are encouraged, and willing, to run more of their horses in the big races.

Or, more pertinently, make that Aidan O’Brien.

Small fields are no good for World Pool trade – I think they need a minimum of seven runners at the overnight stage for it to be an optimal betting heat – and O’Brien regularly props up Group 1 contests in the UK and Ireland.

That is certainly the case with the Irish Derby, another World Pool race – he was responsible for four of the eight this year – and it could be that he runs more than expected this weekend in the King George at Ascot (at 3.40pm) to bolster the numbers for the all-important cash cows that are Hong Kong punters.

But maybe the field will hit the magic seven anyway without O’Brien’s mass support.

No-one is doubting what a necessary and welcomed financial input World Pool brings to the UK scene – though just how much the racecourses get remains something of a mystery, like most other revenue streams in the sport, such as media rights– and the trainers are fully aware of this.

And O’Brien plays ball.

He had eight of the 18 in the race on Monday morning, and that has changed to five out of the 11 still left after the noon confirmation stage later in the day.

Obviously, Auguste Rodin remains the premier Ballydoyle cheese but, as expected, the Juddmonte-bound City Of Troy has predictably come out along with weekend scorer Tower Of London and Irish Derby winner Los Angeles.

And, elsewhere, Arrest, Hamish, Emily Upjohn and Ambiente Friendly were not confirmed.

Before I get stuck into the race, the starting point has to be the ground and weather.

The current going at Ascot is good to firm, good in places, and they decided to water 5mm on the round course on Monday, and 10mm on the straight course, which the going stick reading suggests is a lot quicker (see below).

Whether or not they should have held off on the irrigation, we shall see, but on Monday the main weather site I use had 3mm arriving on Tuesday and 11mm on Thursday, so I thought they may have been a touch premature there.

However, that forecast dramatically improved overnight into Tuesday and they now have little of note incoming at the moment, with just 3.7mm on Thursday and very light showers on other days.

Let’s hope that Thursday’s 11mm+ doesn’t re-surface, as rain on watered ground is rarely good news – you would think they will probably water again – but I guess we have to proceed on the basis of racing on the quicker side of good ground. I should add it is a two-day meeting starting on Friday (the same as at York), which makes life trickier for clerks.

Anyway, back to the likely make-up of the field given the probability of ground on the quicker side of good, unless they get very jiggy with the watering can.

It is fair to say Bluestocking would probably want more cut (his trainer was on weather watch and said she was 50-50 on Monday’s Nick Luck Daily podcast, and the improved forecast probably doesn’t aid her participation, so the general 5s in the marketplace doesn’t appeal for now), and maybe the same applies to Dubai Honour, Point Lonsdale and Sunway, but maybe they will be all be fine with that watering and the possibility of a changing outlook once again.

We shall see, and also bear in mind that Continuous, Middle Earth, Point Lonsdale and Bluestocking are also in Goodwood next week.

Auguste Rodin, [6/5] with AK Bets, is probably pretty much his true price – though arguably a touch unders – purely on the basis that he seems a guaranteed runner, and the same applies to Rebel Romance, a [7/2] poke with AK but available at 4s in a couple of places.

I’d definitely side with Rebel’s Romance at the current prices purely because the discrepancy is too big, possibly based on the fact that the Godolphin horse’s  last three victories have come abroad. It seems ridiculous that this could be the case in this day and age, but there is probably some truth in there.

Out of sight, out of mind etc.

However, the last brace of his successes have come in Group 1 company and his defeat of the three Japanese horses in the Sheema Classic in March stands up to close inspection in this company. The 4s in the marketplace looks a fair shout, and probably a decent each-way play.

Outside of the top two in the market, it is a case of finding a runner and attempting to back them at the best available price.

That is, however, seemingly easier said than done for the previously stated reasons.

Recent Grand Prix de Saint Cloud winner Dubai Honour is probably the likeliest each way candidate at the double-figure end of the market at AK’s [14/1] but there is no pressing need to get involved in the market at the moment.

If in doubt, don’t pull the trigger.

Bless Him the play in the Moet despite some sexier types on show

The 7f Moet And Chandon International Stakes Heritage Handicap at 3pm is the other early-closer on Ascot’s Saturday card and entries have gone from 54 on Monday morning to just 28 now.

There is a maximum field of 29 allowed on the day for this 150k pot, so that is a very disappointing number at the five-day stage. And some of those hold other entries this week (see below), not to mention in the early-closers at Glorious Goodwood.

If I were you, I definitely would not back the following as they have been confirmed on Tuesday morning to race on Thursday. They are Santa Savana, Dubai Station, Mattice, Alligator Alley, and Spirit Of Applause.

Aalto is officially the best handicapped horse in the race, being 4lb well-in courtesy of only carrying a 3lb penalty for a dominant recent win in the Bunbury Cup (for which he went up 7lb), so he has an obvious chance to follow in the footsteps of Burnt Sugar, who did the Newmarket-Ascot handicap double in 2018.

There will be plenty of people thinking that Carrytheone also has around 4lb in hand of the assessor after he clearly didn’t get the run of the race when 3 ½ lengths behind Aalto in the Bunbury Cup, or at Royal Ascot the time before, and he has stayed on the same mark. Ryan Moore, who rode him at Newmarket last time, is already jocked up.

Both of that pair have obvious claims and I was surprised to see Carrytheone and Aalto initially as big as 8s and 10 in the marketplace – AK Bets were [6/1] and [8/1] respectively at the same time, and they are still top price about the former – though you can easily argue that this handicap does not lack for sexy types.

And the aforementioned 8s and 10s didn’t last too long on Monday afternoon anyway, with 6s and 8s the best prices now knocking about.

Orazio is one such sexy type, and a lot of his better efforts have been at this track, including last time out. He went up 3lb for that narrow defeat, but I guess the step up to 7f for the first time could be the making of him.

One word of caution is that he is in the Stewards Cup next week (a race in which he went off the 100/30 favourite last year) but I guess there is no reason why he couldn’t double up and run in both if he acquits himself well at Ascot this weekend.

He is a perfectly acceptable 10s in the marketplace, with William Buick booked. The 14s was all taken on Monday – and the 12s in three places went on Tuesday morning. He is as short as 8s in a fair few places, including with AKBets.

Of the others, I am still scratching my head as to why Make Me King only went up 1lb for his Newcastle 2 ¼-length win last time – so he is bizarrely 2lb badly-in officially under his 3lb penalty – but he is also in at Goodwood next week.

The draw can often be decisive at Ascot, but that is something you have to live with ante-post and, of the more exposed performers, Bless Him must rank quite highly at the odds. He is currently [25/1] with AKBets, the best price out there.

I know he is a 10yo now (the oldest in here along with Summerghand, when they face 3yos), so he is up against horses six and seven years his junior here, but should that really entitle him to be dismissed so readily in the market?

Nah.

He doesn’t currently hold an engagement at Goodwood next week, and in any case a straight 7f or 1m on quickish ground, in a fast-run race (though it has to be said there aren’t too many trailblazers in here, so let’s hope the likes of Make Me King and prominent racers like Ropey Guest run), is much more his bag and he certainly caught the eye when eighth in the Bunbury Cup last time, staying on all too late after being broadsided coming out of the stalls.

He was still last entering the final furlong and only ended up being beaten just over 5 lengths.

I know he can be a late headway monkey and he is actually due to go down 1lb in future handicaps, but he has run some absolute belters here and is actually 4lb lower than when beaten a short-head by Fresh in this race in 2022.

And he was only beaten a head and a short-head by The Wizard Of Eye, favourite in here, in May and is 3lb better off with the winner, who is surely underpriced, even at a drifting, best-priced [11/2] in the marketplace. That horse also has the option of Goodwood next week, as do quite a few in here.

You will get enhanced place terms on the day in the marketplace but you may not get the price – though he clearly doesn’t have the profile of a massive shortener – so back Bless Him [25/1] each way, four places, a quarter the odds, with AKBets. I presume this is his target, fitness-permitting.

When I said he was being dismissed in the market, that isn’t exactly true.

All the 40s and 33s were hoovered up on Monday – and there was plenty of those prices out there, with 40s being available in five places – but I still think the general 25s (available in 15 places on the Oddschecker grid) is still big enough to get involved.  His form this season isn’t that far detached from his best, with his run in the Hunt Cup, from an impossible position, another solid 2024 effort.

None of the other races interest me at this stage, but I have gone through all the entries and listed all the double-entered horses below.

They should shape where you are leaning in those contests, or at the very least tell you what horses you should be avoiding for now; that information can be vital when betting ante-post and should not be ignored.

Avoiding no-shows is a fair part of the ante-post battle, and some of the other ITV races could cut up, with the 10-runner SkyBet York Stakes at 3.15pm at York the glaringly obvious one.

If I was a bookmaker, there is no way that I would have priced the race up, and plenty haven’t. And I bet any firm that has will be trading it to minimum stakes to their customers, as well as understandably betting to only two places.

Firstly, Embesto and Ancient Rome have the option of running at Pontefract on Sunday.

Then the favourite Passenger is obviously delicate and has had his troubles since winning impressively at Chester in May. Apparently, a late decision will be made on his participation in midweek, and whether he goes directly to the Juddmonte next month.

You’d be mad to back him at the moment, even at a best-priced [15/8].

And will they risk Royal Rhyme again on ground likely to be on the quick side? And Mujtaba would ideally need rain too, and the forecast is currently saying “no” on that front.

It all points to nicking a win-only bet about one of the others and then hoping it cuts up to just five or six runners – they could all shorten dramatically given the uncertainty surrounding the race – but the market will be very alive and sensitive to such bets in a tentative market (that is, you will not get a lot on and, in fact, we have already seen big moves to little money), so it is probably best to swerve for now.

Almaqam, still 8s in two places, has been the one for whatever money is doing the early rounds. He is a likely runner, but the trainer doesn’t want the ground too quick for him, by all accounts.

Good luck. Back on Friday.

ANTE-POST BET

Bless Him at [25/1] each way, four places, in Moet & Chandon International Stakes at 3pm at Ascot on Saturday. Available with 15 firms, including with AKBets.

GOING/WEATHER

ASCOT (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

GOING STICK READINGS: 8.0 Straight course; 6.5 Round as at 8.30am on Monday

WEATHER: The forecast has improved overnight into Tuesday and is now largely dry outside of 3.7mm Thursday

WATERING – Monday: 5mm round course; 10mm straight course; possibly expect more to come

YORK (two-day meeting starting on Friday)

GOING: Good, good to firm in places

WEATHER: Spits and spots all week, light showers; nothing major

DOUBLE-ENTERED HORSES (done before Ireland weekend entries are known)

1.50pm Ascot: Santa Savana (entered overnight at Sandown on Thursday)

2.25pm Ascot: Julia Augusta, Orchid Bloom

3.00pm Ascot (plenty entered in early-closers at Goodwood next weekend, so tread carefully):, Bopedro, Cogitate, Racingbreaks Ryder. Dancing Magic, Witch Hunter

3.40pm Ascot: None but some have Goodwood options next week (Continuous, Middle Earth, Point Lonsdale and Bluestocking)

2.05pm York: Alligator Alley (entered overnight at Sandown on Thursday), Copper Knight, Count D’Orsay, Dubai Station (entered overnight at Sandown on Thursday), Ecclesiastical, Ghathanfar (due to run at Musselburgh on Tuesday), Glendown, Golden Rainbow (finished 8^th of 12 as a 4-1 favourite at Beverley on Monday), Kitaab, Mattice (entered overnight at Yarmouth on Thursday), Night On Earth, Ray Vonn, Reigning Profit, Spirit Of Applause (entered overnight at Yarmouth on Thursday), Whisky McGonagall

2.40pm York (fair few entered at Goodwood next week): Badri, Bergerac, Hyperfocus, Rage Of Bamby, Rock Opera, Spangled Mac, Tacarib Bay, Two Tribes, Woodhay Wonder

3.15pm York: Ancient Rome, Embesto