By Tony Calvin - 12 May 2025
This is the last column where there will have been a stats/info opener at the 48-hour stage (which was normally around 11am two days before the race), and the copy followed the day after around 9am (that is to say Monday and Tuesday updates ahead of this Wednesday column, for example).
From now on, as a rule, the column will appear only on the day of the race.
The reason being is that the markets are so painfully thin in the two days before that it makes total sense to wait until they have firmed up a touch on the day itself, and are more resistant to bets of a tenner (granted, day-of-race markets in the morning are hardly ideal betting/tipping waters, either).
Of course that means missing the outlandish prices, but we all know how quickly they are trimmed, for precious little money and for so few people – and every tipster knows this – so it’s best to bite the bullet and change, as I have the flexibility to do so.
And even early morning moves can, and often do, mean little. Phoney War etc before the real bullets are fired.
I’ll still provide all the information below, and put in all the usual work and provide the detailed copy – and how good are York’s updates, by the way? (compare that to Yarmouth’s below) – but the column will just appear on the morning of the races now, unless I have to go early in rare cases for personal reasons.
Maybe around 4am, knowing my sleep patterns…
More seriously, I’ll aim to make it consistent by going live at 8am, by which time all the going updates are hopefully in from the courses (I’ll update if they are later).
Follow me on tony_calvin as I will flag up on X when the columns are imminent.
If you are interested, that is…
Good luck.
The obvious starting point in this 1m3f188yd handicap is Almosh’her, purely on the basis of his lightly-raced profile in a race full of largely older, more exposed handicappers.
He also has his first start for Karl Burke (for some reason), as previous handler Charlie Fellowes did very well with the colt, only being a head away from being three from three with him.
He is 5lb higher than for a nose win in March but the runner-up won next time and they were well clear of the third.
This Sea The Stars colt is clearly all about potential, he is one of the few possible pace angles, and Burke’s interview with the Sporting Life on Monday was positive enough if you fancy him.
He said: “It wouldn’t surprise me if he runs very well in the first at York. He hasn’t been with us that long, he came up from Charlie Fellowes’ in really good shape and won two nice races on the all-weather over a distance possibly short of his optimum.
“He looks as though he’s got plenty of ability but he’s a little bit tricky in terms of temperament so I’m hoping York doesn’t find him out in that regard. Stepping up in trip will suit.”
The 8s about him in the marketplace was taken on Monday, and he is now a general 7s. He is a player.
There is no surprise to see The Reverend (stable has won two recent runnings of this handicap) and Stressfree ahead of him in the betting at 4s and 5s in the marketplace, and dual course winner Marhaba The Champ is interesting enough at 10s in first-time cheekpieces and a falling handicap mark, but Naqeeb is winking at me more than most at [20/1].
Julie Camacho is having a great 2025, with 16 winners at a strike rate of 20 per cent, and she paid 170,000 guineas for this quality animal out of William Haggas’s stable last October.
He didn’t kick on an as expected for Haggas in 2024 and is still on a high enough mark of 104, but Camacho could have some high-class handicap fun with the 5yo this season.
Whether she has him cherry-ripe for this is clearly the big question, and I’ll probably watch and learn in what is a very competitive handicap.
Well, I may chuck a tenner at him, just in case.
Effectively a 63-78 handicap and a dead-eight to boot, so something had better be good to lure me in here.
With the ground set to ride on the quick side and the course not telling us how much they have watered, I suppose at least one non-runner won’t be a surprise (the latest going stick reading as of Monday is 6.1), so I’d definitely advise caution if you were considering betting each-way in this.
We are obviously dealing with pretty low-grade horses, with little to distinguish them from one another – most are actually in decent enough form to be fair, with Bella Bisbee (stable could do with a winner going into Tuesday’s racing) and Finbar’s Lad making their reappearances – so you go looking for a differentiator in these circumstances.
John and Sean Quinn, fresh from a 16-1 winner on Monday, send Finbar’s Lad on the long journey south from North Yorkshire, so you’d imagine he’d be pretty straight for his return.
The pace map below doesn’t give us a betting angle into the race, with three, possibly four, forward-goers.
Berry Clever wears first-time blinkers for local trainer Chris Dwyer, having just been touched off here last time. Maybe that could see him get over the line in front, with the dam improving for headgear (won in a first-time hood, and five times afterwards). The stable record with first-time blinkers is below.
Ross Burdon is a new trainer (I think he is a former jockey) and he nearly got off the mark at the fifth attempt with a neck second at 22/1 at Ascot on Saturday.
He runs Ernie’s Valentine, who he bought for 3,000 guineas out of Jim Boyle’s last month.
In summary, you are on your own here….
The usual brain-hurting 6f sprint handicap, even though we are six shy of a maximum field of 22.
Small mercies and all that.
You can obviously make a case for them all at their respective prices, and the 40s about the outsider of the field, Brave Empire, is no forlorn hope.
He was 50s but that got taken just before this column went live.
Not guilty.
Now, his new trainer Ivan Furtado is in poor form and that would have to concern you. Probably more so if you were playing at short prices, granted.
And he is 0 from 18 at York, whatever that means.
But he has inherited an interesting sprinter from Roger Varian (the 4yo was bought for 45,000gns out of that yard in September) in Brave Empire, and the horse has been given a full MOT of gelding and wind operations since we last saw him.
He has been dropped 4lb in the interim too.
The booking of Tom Marquand suggests they could mean business here (though he is 2 from 15 for the stable, so that is not especially significant stats-wise), so I may end up having a small bet on him if I can access the 40s, five places.
By the way, Mister Sox is 3lb badly-in under his 5lb penalty as per updated BHA ratings on Tuesday morning.
Night Raider looked a tool and a half when we last saw him scorching to a wide-margin success over an admittedly poorly-ridden Annaf at Newcastle in November.
The question his potential [11/4] backers have to answer – that price is available in only one place – is can he translate his all-weather form to turf (he is 0-3 on turf, but 4-4 on the all-weather)?
And, in addition, can he deal with a better calibre of opposition, headed by the 116-rated, [9/4] favourite Insiherin.
Once again, Burke, who also runs Elite Status and Marshman, was positive about him in that aforementioned Sporting Life interview.
He said: He’s a powerful animal and he’s been working well all winter. He’s the one who could be the ace in the pack and although he’s got to prove it on turf, he’s had an away-day gallop on the grass and galloped very well.
“I’m looking forward to seeing him run. I hate running good horses against each other (Elite Status and Marshman in Duke of York too) but needs must.”
There is plenty of pace in this eight-runner 6f Group 2 race, so I can see the case for probable closer Flora Of Bermuda at [13/2].
With her 3lb sex allowance, she is officially the second-best in here on official figures, she won here last season and signed off her 2024 campaign with a narrow third in the Group 1 at Ascot on Champions’ Day.
I think the [13/2] and 6s is probably the best price in here if you want a bet – she is now [15/2] and drifting – though she was last on her reappearance in the Temple Stakes last season, which would have to worry you. And regular pilot Oisin Murphy favours Night Raider, it seems.
I can easily let this pass without a bet.
Whirl and Miss Tonnerre head the official ratings in the Musidora on a mark of just 99, so everything is up for grabs in this.
I suppose the default position in these trials this season is to side with the Aidan O’Brien representative and that is [3/1] chance Whirl, a juvenile Group 3 1m winner who aims to put a lacklustre return over 1m at the Curragh last month behind her.
Mount Kilmanjaro proved that an underwhelming return is no barrier to success though, and this Wootton Bassett filly’s pedigree gives you hope she will stay well enough.
She doesn’t set too high a bar clearly, though – hence her current price of 3s, which may shorten, as did plenty of her stablemates did at Chester – and Miss Tonnerre looks overpriced at 12s and 10s on the form of her May Hill fourth to Desert Flower, January and Flight.
That is probably the clear best form on offer here.
And, for what it is worth, Ed Walker was bullish enough about her in his Weekender column this week.
She is now a mere 4s as of Wednesday morning.
That 12/10s move to 4s would not have taken a lot of money before you get carried away.
The sexy unbeaten trio of Go Go Boots, Serenity Prayer and Smoken are clearly dangerous – though Ralph Beckett said the latter “wants a bit of juice, so I won’t be running her on rattling fast ground” – and the seeming Beckett second-string Tattycoram, perhaps the pace angle in here, probably makes greater appeal at 14s.
She is now a general 18s, which looks fair to me.
But when I went to have another look at her Sandown win last time, all the replay sites, including the Racing Post and Sporting Life, were offering me a re-run of the bet365 Gold Cup instead…not ideal.
Rare Change is 2lb well-in under his 6lb penalty as per the updated BHA ratings on Tuesday morning, and he was undeniably impressive at Windsor last week (went up 8lb for that).
He looks a very fair [7/1] chance, as this extra furlong promises to suit on run-style and pedigree too, perhaps.
That Windsor win came after a gelding operation – the trainer said last season that “he saves himself a good bit” – and he looks a 3yo with plenty more to give. The wide draw in 14 of 14 is a slight concern, but it doesn’t bother me too much around here (rightly or wrongly – and I see the nibbled 7/2 favourite Gallant is in trap one).
He is available at [7/1] each way, four places, with five firms and that looks a good bet to me, for all I have just seen Andrew Mount put up some York draw stats on X that suggest I should be bothered by his draw in 14.
That is probably why he is [12.0] win-only on Betfair at the moment, but that is for buttons-money.
He is now available at [10/1] in a place at as 9am. That looks very big to me.
Press-up time. If I can find someone to press up for me….
Early morning drifts don’t bother me – and nor do late ones in the main.
Hopefully biases can correct themselves….but Gallant ran a big, kid gloves eyecatcher over 6f at Newmarket last time and I can fully see why the 4s on Tuesday was taken about him.
Connections would have been delighted with his 1lb drop for that run, and the step up to 7f for the first time looks sure to suit.
I may have to ensure I don’t lose if he wins, even if it is just a cover bet.
His Kempton win last October suggests he is seriously well handicapped off a mark of just 84 if he can pull it all together.
Milford, in seven, is perhaps overpriced at 33s, too.
His record to date suggests he may need plenty more dig to be seen to best effect – so he could be a non-runner – but I thought he shaped okay on his first start for Camacho on the wrong side of the track at Newmarket recently and he got dropped 2lb for it.
He finished a good third in Listed company in the Rockingham here last year for Karl Burke and those 33s quotes underestimate his chances, for all the visor he wore for his best efforts last season are again left off here, as they were at Newmarket.
Rare Change at [7/1] each way, four places, in 4.18pm at York. Available with five firms (now 10/1 in a place and a general 9s and 8s, as at 9am on Wednesday).
Going: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick: 7.0 Wednesday 8.15am
Going Stick readings in Home Straight: Far Side – 7.1: Centre – 7.1: Stands Side – 7.0. Moisture meter reading: 35%. Windspeed and direction: 11mph NE, gusting 25mhp – half across headwind.
Wednesday morning course update: A dry, fresh, sunny Wednesday morning. Met office forecast: cloud cover and fresh Wednesday morning clearing at lunchtime to give unbroken sunshine Wednesday afternoon, 17 degrees. Thursday and Friday outlook – dry, sunny, up to 19 degrees. Live weather station link and live Met Office forecast link available on the York Racecourse website Going page at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk
Watering: Irrigating each night to replace moisture lost to elements. 3mm irrigated Tuesday night, 24mms applied in last 7days. Will continue to assess conditions after racing on Wednesday.
Forecast: Dry and 16 degrees
Rails: Planned rail positions; Wednesday – 6m out from 9f to entrance to the Home Straight. Thursday – 10m out. Friday – tba
Stalls: 5f and 6f – Far Side, 1m4f – Centre, Remainder – Inside Rail.
Going: Good to firm, good in places
Going stick – “5.9 Wednesday 7.45am” – presumably a typo as that was posted before then on BHA site
Wednesday morning course update: Forecast is dry and bright Wednesday (15c), with a stiff Northerly wind (tail wind )
Watering: Watering to maintain
Details on BHA Watering History section below (quite unreal)
On Wed, 14 May 6:55am the watering status was Watered –
On Wed, 07 May 8:34am the watering status was Watering (In Progress) – Watering to maintain
Forecast: Dry and 16 degrees
Stalls: Straight – centre, 1m2f – Inside
Kevin Ryan cheekpieces – Marhaba The Champ, 2.10pm York; 16-166 (since 2016)
Adrian Keatley cheekpieces – Green Pursuit, 4.18pm York; 4-32 (2016)
Chris Dwyer blinkers – Berry Clever, 2,25pm Yarmouth; 5-41 (2009)
2.10pm York: Almosh’her, La Pulga, Marhaba The Champ (prom)
2.25pm Yarmouth : Finbar’s Lad (prom), Daring Legend, Shaw Park, Rhythmic Acclaim (prom)?
2.42pm York: Change Sings, Holkham Bay, We Never Stop (prom), Ramazan (prom), Bergerac. Dark Thirty?, First Folio?, Mister Sox (prom)
3.13pm York: Rage Of Bamby, Royal Zabeel (prom), Elite Status (prom), Inisherin (prom), Marshman (prom), Night Raider
3.45pm York (limited evidence): Tattycoram, Whirl (prom), Go Go Boots (prom)?, Smoken (prom)?
4.18pm York: Milford, Red Sand, Jolly Roger (prom), Tattie Bogle, Double Parked, Miss Hathaway
Good: Aidan O’Brien (very good), Alan King, William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Ralph Beckett, Jennie Candlish (another winner on Monday), Julie Camacho, Scott Dixon, Bryan Smart (small sample), Tim Easterby, Richard Hannon (good for him considering numbers involved), Ed Walker
Fair: Chris Dwyer, Michael Dods (though a poor win strike rate), Richard Spencer, Ruth Carr, Mick Appleby (winner on Monday), Jamie Osborne, Andrew Balding, Karl Burke, Clive Cox, David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan, Charlie Johnston, William Knight, Richard Fahey, Simon and Ed Crisford, Richard Hughes, Adrian Keatley (borderline moderate). John and Sean Quinn (16-1 winner on Monday), Brian Ellison (22-1 winner on Tuesday night), David Evans
Moderate:, Eve Johnson Houghton (borderline fair-moderate), Ed Dunlop, Jessica Macey (small sample), Philip McBride (small sample), Ivan Furtado
Don’t Know: Hilal Kobeissi (a 33-1 second at Ascot; just two runners), Ross Burdon (two runners; one 22-1 neck second)
Confusion sorted There seems to be confusion as to why my 20/1 ante-post fancy Grand…
TUESDAY race-by-race copy for Saturday 1.15pm Ascot – First three in the betting are due…
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