TONY CALVIN: How can Jonbon get beaten in the Tingle Creek?

The rain is coming, but how much?

Looking at the respective weather forecasts this week, we could be into Saturday morning inspection territory at Aintree, and pretty testing ground at Sandown.

See below for the current guesswork at yr.no.

Other sites are available on request.

Let’s hope they are more optimistic – yr.no does tend to be pessimistic, which is why I like it – and are correct in being so.

As it stands, I hope the hurdlers at Sandown (it is already soft on that track) are getting fitted for waders this week, as it is gets particularly brutal there, and the entries at Aintree should be requesting life-rafts.

The updated forecast for Aintree on Tuesday morning is not great (see below for details).

I joke (obviously, as that language isn’t helpful in this day and age) but it really could be bottomless, at Aintree in particular – this meeting last year was played out on heavy ground and was atrocious viewing, with horses walking home and Pembroke the only finisher in the Beginners’ Chase (the other three were pulled up) – so ante-post betting is particularly fraught this weekend.

Even connections of horses who like it testing may decline the offer to get involved.

Mind you, just as I did my final sub and edit of this column around 12.45pm, the forecast for Sandown on Saturday improved.

Andrew Cooper’s prayers were working then – until Tuesday’s weather update saw a revised forecast of 18mm on Thursday.

It is a massively changing forecast, though.

In fact, it is all around the place.

Further good news as eight of the nine confirm for Tingle Creek

The only horse who didn’t confirm for the Tingle Creek on Monday morning was the 139-rated and 66s outsider Sans Bruit – Found A Fifty, who was as short as 4s in the betting, was scratched over the weekend – so clearly little has changed in the betting on Monday.

However, given the forecast (while accepting the chase course is currently good to soft, good in places – as per a Monday afternoon update – and rides much better than the hurdles track) should that be the case?

If the rain is worse than forecast (Saturday’s rain has just been downgraded from 19mm to 11mm, but Thursday’s has got worse) then we could see heavy somewhere in the description come the day.

Who will welcome this rain?

Going in alphabetical order, even the revised forecast probably won’t suit the following, so they may not even run (even if they are confirmed on Thursday morning): Boothill, Master Chewy, Solness and Unexpected Party,

The starting point for this race obviously has to be the [1/2] favourite Jonbon. He is actually available at [8/15] in two spots, perhaps guided by a very illiquid exchange market (Jonbon is 1.61 there, for pennies, as this goes live).

Now, it was actually officially heavy when Jonbon beat Edwardstone by 2 ¾ lengths in this race last year – the only time the favourite has raced on that going according to the formbook – but Timeform disagree.

They called it soft last year and actually have Jonbon only racing on soft ground five times in his career (never on heavy) but the good news is that he won on all five of those starts.

And such is his superiority over the field, then you are probably clutching at straws in trying to get him beaten on account of the likely ground.

And the weather could also turn out even better than the current, revised forecast, obviously.

Is 8/15 Jonbon beatable?

If the betting is correct, the layers say Jonbon wins this race two out of every three attempts. AK Bets are [1/2] about him, not a price I’d like to lay myself.

There is a strong argument to believe that assessment underestimates his claims to some degree, in this company.

Let’s face it, with all due respect to Edwardstone, there is only one Grade 1 top-notcher in this eight-strong field.

Of course, you have to factor in no-shows when it comes to ante-post betting, as they may not run if it does turn out to be desperate on the day.

So that “two out of three” analysis doesn’t really work at this ante-post, punting stage. You know what I mean, though.

Bar a fall or a juddering error (as he made when beaten by Elixir Du Nutz in the Clarence House last season), he will have to seriously underperform to lose this.

His main market rival is now Edwardstone, available at [15/2], two places, and we know the score there by now.

Aside from beating him in this race last year, Jonbon has also seen off Alan King’s chaser by 2 ¼ lengths on his reappearance last month, by 9 ½ lengths in the same race (the Shloer) last season and by 4 lengths in the Celebration Chase here in April.

So we know what we are dealing with here. As his form figures testify, Jonbon turns up and runs his race.

And invariably wins.

I got the distinct impression they thought he was very vulnerable on his return (the stable were not really firing at the time, and they didn’t think they had him bang-on), so I actually think they would have been delighted by the Cheltenham victory, for all his 1 ½ defeat of Boothill (with Edwardstone a ¾ length away in third) was at least 7lb off his best.

It is impossible to coherently take him on, for all you have tread very carefully when bookmakers appear to be bearing gifts, and it is certainly not a price that I play at. In horse racing, anyway.

And keep an eye on that exchange price. One firm went [4/7] on Monday afternoon.

So what comes second if Jonbon runs?

Edwardstone is clearly the ultra-solid candidate for second place, having won this race by 9 lengths in 2022 and the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase on this card 12 months earlier.

The forecast would worry me for the four mentioned above (which included 12s chance Boothill), so that leaves Quilixios and JPR One to deal with, trading at 7s and 12s respectively.

Now, ideally, you would say that both of these would prefer better ground, but they have won on heavy.

I am not sure that Joe Tizzard would want to pitch his horse into Grade 1 company on very deep ground, having said the going (which was officially heavy, but Timeform called soft) “took its” toll on the horse when he ran in the Henry VIII here last season.

And, for all he was impressive at Exeter in the Haldon Gold Cup on his reappearance, the fact remains that he is still on a mark of only 154, some 16lb shy of Jonbon and 9lb adrift of Edwardstone.

And I have just seen he has also been put in a handicap at Kelso on Sunday.

Similar comments are applicable to Quilixios (rated 155 in Ireland), and he too excelled on decent ground (officially good, but good to soft on Timeform) when beating Marine Nationale at Naas on his return.

However, he has a fair body of work when heavy is in the description, and those efforts include a Grade 1 hurdles success and a narrow second to Teahupoo in a Grade 2 at Limerick.

Yes, I’d agree he deserves to the general, joint [7/1] second favourite alongside Edwardstone.

But he is still in the Hilly Way this weekend (see below).

Summary – two of eight left in Hilly Way on Sunday, too

So the above was not really a lot of help, was it…

What I would say is that I am amazed that four firms (though three of those are the same outfit, and effectively all represent the sponsors) appear to be betting each way 1,2,3 here, according to the Oddschecker grid.

Madness or generosity.

Shurely. Shome. Mishtake… (and it is HWPA awards day…..).

Fair play if they are trading that aggressively.

That’s a very big “if” that, mind you.

No way, would I be laying the second and third in each way at [13/2] and 7s, three places.

In fact, nor did they, as all firms pulled the three places offer on Monday afternoon, though I suspect it was a display issue somewhere along the line.

I have just done the double-entry information below – I anticipate some small fields unfortunately, especially with the Grade 1 novices’ chase attracting just six entries, three of which are Irish – but that may be it on the copy front, as I have the grandson for most of the day tomorrow.

Pray for me, as well as the Aintree and Sandown clerks….

UPDATE 6pm Tuesday: Solness and Quilixios have been left in the Hilly Way at Cork on Sunday

GOING AND WEATHER – updated 8.45am Thursday 

SANDOWN

Going – Chase: Good to soft, soft in places; Hurdle: Soft

Going stick reading – Chase: 5.2; Hurdle: 4.9 (7.30am Thursday)

Weather:  10mm Thursday (maybe starting 4pm); 2.7mm Friday (some say dry); 8.2mm Saturday

NB: Yellow weather rain and wind warning in place for Saturday

AINTREE

Going: Good to soft, soft in places; National: Soft

Going stick reading – Chase: 4.5; Hurdle; 4.4; National: 4.2 (3pm Wednesday)

Weather: 12mm Thursday; 6.4mm Friday; 9.8mm Saturday

NB: Yellow weather rain and wind warnings in place for Thursday, Friday and Saturday

DOUBLE ENTRIES (two additional ITV races added on Tuesday, as well as two extra Tingle Creek options)

1.15pm Sandown: Dans Le Vent, Patriotik, Good Luck Charm, Beaufort Scale, Super Survivor, Up For Parol

1.32pm Aintree: Beachcomber, Eaton Collina, No Risk Des Flos, Richmond Lake, Salamanca Bay, Whistleinthedark

NB: Sure Touch is in an early-closer on Dec 14

1.50pm Sandown: Soul Icon

2.07pm Aintree: Richmond Lake, King Turgeon, Royal Blue, Your Own Story

2.25pm Sandown:  Go To War, Stream Of Stars

3.00pm Sandown: JPR One, Solness, Quilixios

3.17pm Aintree: Dans Le Vent, Go To War, Patriotik, Fine Casting, Good Luck Charm, Captain Potter, Rory The Cat

3.35pm Sandown (no shortage of staying handicap chases from 3m to 4m this week; poor race planning?): Animal, Bretney, Certainly Red, Christoper Wood, Dr Kananga, Montgomery, Mr Vango, The Big Breakaway, Top Of The Bill, Your Own Story