By Tony Calvin - 12 December 2024
Not a lot to report. The ground hasn’t changed much at Cheltenham or Bangor (see below).
However, the updated going stick reading at Bangor has gone from 3.9 to 3.5 after just 1mm overnight. Well done to them for updating on Friday morning.
It will be attritional stuff there.
Cheltenham haven’t updated their going stick readings as at 10.05am on Friday. In fact, their last Cross Country going stick reading is from Tuesday.
Poor.
There are no non-runners in the two Bangor races on ITV but we have four no-shows at Cheltenham.
As expected, Thanksforthehelp takes up his first preference at Bangor, so there is a 10p Rule in the 3.35pm, and Balboa (1.15pm), Eden De Houx (2.25pm) and Gevrey (3pm) are also out.
That’s Nice has been backed into [4/6] in the opener, Caldwell Potter has drifted to [6/5] in a place in the 12.40pm, while Willmount is firmly winning the favouritism battle at [11/4] in the 1.15pm.
I am surprised Cavern Club has hit 16s in this race (and 20s on the exchange), so I have gone in again myself.
Chianti Classico and Doyen Quest have hardened into [11/8] and [11/10] respectively for their races, while the weak Shakem Up’arry and Iceo Madrik have lost favouritism for their contests.
Chambard has drifted out to 20s in Classico Chianti’s race at 1.50pm, and I have backed him each way, hoping the dead-eight holds up.
The case for him is below and he is now 20s in five places – he is actually 22s in one spot – probably on account of the ground.
Too big.
He is actually available at 12s without the favourite, and [11/2] without Chianti Classico and King Turgeon.
Again, too big, surely.
Good luck. I am off to a funeral at midday, so Saturday’s column will be out shortly.
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That Friday card at Cheltenham is arguably as good/interesting as any I have seen this year, from start to finish, and I’d be happy to see any of the first three races on the ITV schedule.
Well, perhaps not the five-runner novices’ chase….
Joking aside, that race arguably presents the best betting opportunity of the day.
I will take in all seven Cheltenham contests here though, ITV or not, and the two from Bangor.
Only four runners but this is a pretty serious 2m novices’ hurdle, with all of the runners carrying 6lb penalties.
I wouldn’t like to pick between the quartet at their current prices, as they all have a lot to recommend them, but I was very impressed by the manner in which That’s Nice beat Saturday’s winner Honky Tonk Highway over 2m3f at Warwick.
The 4yo filly gets the 7lb sex allowance here and that could tip the scales in her direction.
I didn’t expect a great price about her when the betting came through – the race wasn’t priced up ante-post – and even her best price of [11/10] is nothing flash.
She is as short as [4/5] in a place, though.
Palacio is 16s in one spot and that is not a price that I’d want to be laying about the Chepstow winner, hailing from a stable with a 31 per cent strike rate this season.
This 2m4f+ novices’ chase is clearly more Springwell Bay’s trip but he has a troublesome 8lb penalty to carry for his Class 1 Chepstow win in October.
That said, I didn’t think he ran badly over 3m here last time, for all that trip clearly stretches his stamina to the limit, so I was surprised to see him on offer as big as [13/2] here.
A 740,000 euros price tag or not, I was not blown away by Caldwell Potter’s chase debut at Carlisle last month and, under a 5lb penalty, I couldn’t have him at a best-priced [10/11] here.
They eased him in gently at Carlisle after mixed reports of his schooling – he won at [2/11] there from a 112-rated hurdler making his chase debut too, and this asks a much stiffer question of him – and, for all he was a Grade 1 winner for Gordon Elliott over hurdles, I can’t have him as an odds-on poke.
If Jango Baie jumps adequately, then this Grade 1-winning hurdler is my idea of the one to beat getting weight off the above two.
As I say though, if is a very expensive word in betting and Cheltenham is hardly the easiest place to make your chasing debut.
That said, the [5/2] about him is fair. The [11/4] in a place went on Thursday morning.
I think the way to play this – and the way I will play it, and indeed have started to do in a very illiquid exchange market – is laying Caldwell Potter at evens or less, and have the field running for you in a coin-toss.
In fact, it is far better than a coin-toss, as I don’t think 8s chance Deafening Silence is out of this, either.
Layers have three live ones running for them, and opposing Caldwell Potter at evens or less is probably my idea of the best trade of the day. He is actually as short as [8/11] in a place.
A cracking 15-runner 0-140 2m handicap hurdle, and you’d like to have seen this on ITV, maybe instead of that cheese wedge circus.
It looks an exceptionally warm race for a 0-140, and a fair starting point is To Chase A Dream, who is officially 3lb well-in under a 7lb penalty for an impressive Carlisle win earlier in the month.
Harry Cobden has snaffled the ride on the Northern raider, too.
I suppose we will hear a lot of talk about these southern handicaps being far more competitive, but the 8s about him is very fair.
Willmount is the wildcard off 130 here given how well he is regarded. But you certainly couldn’t say his opening mark is a gift on the bare form of his Newbury win before that Challow flop.
And I don’t think main market rival Valgrand is that well treated off 139, either.
Sexy profiles for sure, and more to come perhaps, but the reality is they probably have been given marks beyond what they have shown to date.
I’d be more drawn to the handicap in which Wreckless Eric beat 50s poke Cavern Club by a length here last month, for which the runner-up is 3lb better off.
That was very strong handicap form. The third looked very well treated going into the race, and he had the fourth (just touched off at Sandown last week by the sixth-home, no less) 7 lengths away. The time was good, too.
They are priced at 7s and 12s respectively, and I’ll be backing both to small stakes. It is a hot race, after all.
There are four places out there for each-way backers, and five in one spot, though if you take the five places you will be getting some of the worst prices in the marketplace (not one has bold on Oddschecker),
Wreckless Eric has the more obviously progressive sexier profile, hence his shorter odds, but I’d favour Cavern Club at 12s (he is also a good bet at 11s) given the price differential.
Top jockey Sean Bowen is 6 from 23 for the yard, with five seconds, and three thirds. Not too shabby.
And trainer James Owen is a man to have on your side this season.
And, no, I won’t be backing Anyharminasking each way at 16s as a back-up.
Now, watch him finally deliver, down in trip again and with the cheekpieces off, down to a mark of a mere 133…
Saturday’s foul weather has been Cheltenham’s gain as a few of these would have run at Aintree and Sandown last weekend.
Three of these were due to run in the Becher – Chianti Classico, King Turgeon and Chambard – and the betting suggests the first two are the ones to beat again here.
Chianti Classico could take a lot of whacking in particular and I can fully see why he is just [7/4] for this – the 2s and [15/8] was taken on Thursday morning – but Chambard opened up at 14s on Wednesday morning, and is probably still too big at 12s and 11s for each-way purproses.
He is only 5lb higher than when running away with last year’s Becher, and goes well when fresh, as well as hailing from an in-form yard. And the 2022 Kim Muir winner has excellent course form, too.
The one negative is the drying ground, as he is undoubtedly better in testing ground. And the dead-eight makes me very wary of sticking him up each way, 24 hours in advance of the race.
One for an update on Friday morning once we see if there are any non-runners.
Kim Bailey’s 7yo, a winner of the Ultima here last season, casts a big shadow over this race, though and could yet be headed for a Gold Cup trial if he wins this off 157.
He may have just about hit his price at [7/4] now, though that is coming under pressure, too.
Bangor was basically waterlogged at the start of the week, and they had to abandon the chases on the card on Monday, but they have been pumping water off the track and luckily it has been dry, too.
They passed a Thursday morning inspection, even if they don’t feel confident or able to provide a going stick reading!
Whether you want to be betting in this deep ground is highly questionable but good luck to the course and their day in the sun on ITV.
You’ve certainly seen better maiden hurdles than this and it is no surprise to see John McConnell’s Kevin’s Pride the evens jolly here, having won a bumper by a wide margin and just been touched off in what was a fair maiden hurdle at Carlisle in his two starts to date.
A reproduction of that Carlisle form will probably be good enough, as the winner is in the Albert Bartlett trial at Cheltenham on Saturday and the third won by a wide margin at Kelso last week.
This could be very hard work in the ground, though.
Galassian at 8s could be the each way option.
A good turn-out for the veterans’ chase and, as such, it is a very tough race to call.
It is [9/2] the field, with Shakem Up’arry heading the market, after coming here instead of running in the December Gold Cup on Saturday.
My opening two against the field were Eldorado Allen (available at 13/2) and Torn And Frayed, with slight preference for the latter.
Torn And Frayed actually handed Eldorado Allen his arse over 3m at Warwick last time, and a reproduction of that run (off just a 6lb higher mark) could make him the one to beat in here.
Now, he isn’t Mr Reliable and he spat the dummy out when very well backed at Aintree in October, jumping poorly from the off, but his revised mark of 131 still probably underplays his talent when he puts it all in.
Some of his better efforts have come around here, and I’d like to see him given a more prominent ride here, with Sam Twiston-Davies getting him into the best jumping rhythm possible. He used to make the running back in the day.
His jumping is his Achilles heel, and he can’t afford a sloppy display in this competitive race, so I will probably just have a small win-only bet myself.
He is 9s in a place – you can’t really cherry pick that for tipping purposes – but a more representative price is [13/2], which is fair, if nothing more.
Not a bad 0-130 handicap hurdle, with nine runners, but, as I said above, I am not overly-inclined to force a bet in the ground.
That said, Schalke is surely still too big at 12s in a place (the 10s elsewhere is okay). The 14s was taken on Thursday morning.
He ran well over course and distance on his return, on his debut for a yard going places, and his best form for the equally impressive Rebecca Menzies came in heavy ground a couple of seasons.
He is the best bet in the race if you want one, for all he is the old man of the party as a 9yo (though he has come down the weights with age).
I don’t know much about 7lb claimer Ben Smith but his stats are okay.
I find these Cross Country races a bit of a joke myself – and certainly not a betting medium – as history has told us that anything can win them, no matter how far out of the handicap they are.
And the fact that Iceo Madrik appears to be officially 11lb wrong here, and heads the betting at [7/2], underlines that.
To be fair, he has taken rather well to this discipline since moving from David Pipe to France in the summer, albeit in deeper ground than he is likely to face here.
His compatriot Sweet David won the Cross Country race here last month when 17lb out of the handicap – and was backed from 12s to 5s to do so, too.
It sounds as if he is rated much higher in France, so that 11lb out of the handicap stuff is probably nonsense.
The betting suggests it is, anyway.
It’s a maximum field of 16 though, with five places on offer with most terms, so it’s a decent enough heat if you like these things. And I appreciate some do.
And it’s popular with trainers too, as four horses were balloted out of the race (see below).
Another corker of a handicap hurdle., this time over 3m.
However, annoyingly, I am not inclined to take on Doyen Quest, even at a best price of just [2/1].
The drying ground is very much in his favor and, given the way he overcame an horrendous early blunder to win as he liked from Gowel Road here last time, I suspect a 10lb rise will not stop him.
It’s a race I can leave alone though.
Backing 2s chances in handicaps is not for me, for all I would say “no thanks” to anyone looking to back him with me at that price.
Look, I can’t put you off Doyen Quest at 2s – he is the bet in the race if you want one.
There will probably be a Rule 4 in here as Thanksforhehelp is also in at Bangor, which is apparently his first preference, and he ranges from [15/2] to 9s in this.
That’s 10p in the pound.
Good luck.
Wreckless Eric at [7/1] each way, four places, in 1.15pm at Cheltenham. Available in two places (13/2 and 6s is fine, too)
Cavern Club at [12/1] or [11/1] each way, four places, in 1.15pm at Cheltenham (general 10s is acceptable, too).
NB: As you can see above there are plenty of other suggestions, too.
Over to you there, as the nature of this column is to give every race a going-over, and put the ball in your court as well.
CHELTENHAM
Going – Good to soft, good in places: Cross Country: Soft, good to soft in places
Going stick readings – 6.1 (Thursday 7.30am); Cross Country 5.4 (Tuesday 3pm)
Weather: Dry overnight; light showers maybe from 9am
Rails: Chase Rail +5y Hurdle Rail +4y
BANGOR (Friday on ITV) – all races will now be run over hurdles as chase course is damaged
Going: Soft, heavy in places (1mm overnight)
Going stick reading – 3.5 (9.30am Friday)
Weather: Dry
3pm Cheltenham: Back On The Lash, Bodhisattva Classic Concorde, Izino D’Airy
None
1.15pm Cheltenham: To Chase A Dream (3lb)
1.50pm Cheltenham: Java Point (2lb), The Newest One (4lb), Izino D’Airy not sure but looks to be plenty…)
3pm Cheltenham: Three By Two (6lb), Iceo Madrik (11lb – dubious)
3.35pm Cheltenham: Thanksforthehelp (1lb), Wonderful Eagle (1lb)
12.10pm Cheltenham: Palacio, Wingmen
12.40pm Cheltenham: Caldwell Potter
1.15pm Cheltenham: Valgrand, Bo Zenith, Willmount, Media Naranja?, Mirabad, Lively Citizen (prom)
1.50pm Cheltenham: Chianti Classico, King Turgeon, The Newest One
2.05pm Bangor: Galassian?
2.25pm Cheltenham: Paint The Dream?, Eldorado Allen?, Dashel Drasher, Seddon?, Shan Blue? Torn And Frayed?
2.40pm Bangor: Mahland, Astronomic View, Schalke?, Strackan, Neo King (prom)
3.00pm Cheltenham: Coko Beach?, Stumptown, Gevrey (prom), Mister Coffey?, Statuario (prom), Iceo Madrik (prom)?
3.35pm Cheltenham: Gowel Road, Bhaloo
Edmunds wouldn’t have the biggest string, but he makes the most of what he has got.
Going into Thursday’s racing, he had won with four of his last nine runners, and he has a seasonal strike rate of 19 per cent.
He runs Arizona Cardinal in the Cross Country Handicap at 3pm.
Good: Stuart Edmunds, Kim Bailey, Venetia Williams, Dan Skelton (three winners on Thursday), Sam Thomas, Tom Ellis, Nicky Henderson, Harry Fry, Olly Murphy, Clive Boultbee-Brooks (1 winner from 5 runners, and a 16-1 third), Henry Daly
Fair: Nigel Twiston-Davies, Joe Tizzard, Ben Pauling (winner on Thursday), Jeremy Scott, John McConnell, Gordon Elliott, Joseph O’Brien (double at Dundalk on Wednesday), Gavin Cromwell, Martin Keighley, Hobbs and White, Henry Oliver (no winners), Greenall and Guerriero, Donald McCain (could do with more winners), Fergal O’Brien, Lucy Wadham (three seconds from five recent runners)
Moderate: David Pipe, Peter and Michael Bowen, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (maybe more fair), Sue Gardner (hard to call, an she has had 80-1 runner-up), Brian Ellison (maybe more fair but no winners), Evan Williams
Don’t know: David Brace, Mel Rowley, Denis Paul Murphy, D Cottin (looks moderate from a small sample comprising big prices), Guillame Fabre, Heather Main, Max Comley
This weeks Racing Room podcast features: Intro Chat & Weekend Racing Review (0-8mins) Rory Campbell’s Betting Syndicate: Take 3…
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