TONY CALVIN: 28/1 and 16/1 chances in the Grand National

The Grand National  at 4pm– 16/1 Minella Cocooner has the class and hopefully the stamina

The field may have been reduced from 40 to 34 runners, and you are more likely to see your selections finish the race these days due to the fences being more brush through than jump over, but it isn’t too much easier to solve.

It is a high-class handicap now, with a ratings band of 167 to 145, so a win for any of the field would not come as a massive shock.

Right, that’s the excuses in early, let’s shit or get off the pot.

I wouldn’t be one for trends but I do find the one doing the rounds about proven stamina very compelling.

I can’t remember the exact criteria but it’s a huge positive to have winning form over 3m4f and above, and that brings in my main fancy.

Step forward, Minella Cocooner.

He is a general [14/1] chance, six places, and that is good enough for me.

But if you can get the 14s, seven places, and the 16s, six places, then so much the better.

This is six furlongs further than he has ever travelled before, so his stamina is certainly not copper-bottomed, but this is a horse who finished third in a 3m5f Irish National last season and then won the bet365 at Sandown over 3m4f146yd 26 days later, doing very well to win from off the pace.

So I’d be very hopeful he will last home here.

Three no-shows in Grade 1s was probably a means to an end at the start of the season, and he was a promising enough fourth over 3m2f at Fairyhouse last time to get him into a more competitive frame of mind.

Decent ground looks fine for him – he handles heavy but the Sandown win came on good – and he fits the bill for me, albeit I’d rather the handicapper had left him on 152 for this (his Irish mark), and not 157.

He has a touch of class though – he was a Grade 1 winner over hurdles – and hopefully that will come to the fore late doors.

If you want a win-only bet, he currently trades at [19.5] on the exchange.

I’ve played there, too.

AK Bets are 16s, four places.

Two others I’ve thrown darts at, notably Beauport

He doesn’t meet the 3m4f-minimum criteria but I have chucked a few quid win-only at 36.0 on Betfair on Grangeclere West, a 3m Grade 1 chaser winner who could take to this challenge.

But my other main bet is Beauport, who will not lack for stamina being a Midlands Grand National winner over 4m2f on heavy ground and who comes here after two decent efforts over hurdles, including a third in an admittedly below-par Grade 1 Long Walk.

Now, there are two obvious negatives against him.

The first is the ground, as he would surely prefer it softer. However, it was officially good (Timeform called it good to soft) when he danced in over an extended 3m5f at Ascot in November  – and that race/performance is actually the second negative.

At face value, a 12lb rise for a 31-length win is lenient, but the form of that race could not have worked out any worse, and the suspicion is he left his winning chance at Ascot in November.

But he is available 28s and 25s, six places, and that strikes me a decent each-way bet, given he will be ploughing on late on once others have cried enough.

Good luck.

AKBets are 16s Minella Cocooner and 28s Beauport, four places.

1.20pm – 14/1 Bo Zenith could come good in the headgear

Hopefully Excello will improve Nicky Henderson’s excellent record with first-time cheekpieces on Friday afternoon (or at least finish in the first six in trying to do so), so that angle made me look at his Bo Zenith here, 14s in a place but a general 12s.

And the case interested me.

He blew out when sent off the [5/1] favourite for the Imperial Cup at Sandown last time but I’ll forgive any horse a poor run there over hurdles – and he also disappointed at the track at [4/11] when trained by Gary Moore – and he was edged 1lb down the weights for it.

Every little helps in these big-field handicaps.

He had previously caught the eye in decent handicaps over 2m1f at Cheltenham and 2m3f at Ascot, and his form for Moore included a short-head second to Zenta in the Grade 1 juvenile hurdle, on ground Timeform called good, at this meeting in 2023.

Aside from the poor run last time, the obvious other question he has to answer here is his stamina and that’s a big unknown.

But he has certainly shaped as if it is worth a try and there is no better place than Aintree’s speed track on decent ground to have a go.

And it could be significant that when owner Oli Harris sold most of his horses out of the Henderson yard recently he kept this one.

The problem I have is that the general 12s is only fair considering the potential negatives, though I will have a speculative small win-only bet on the exchange on him (he is currently 15.0 there).

AKBets are 14s Bo Zenith.

This is one tricky race though, and I won’t be parting with too much money here.

Navajo Indy came out at 8.35am on Friday with a bruised foot.

1.55pm – 5/4 Lulamba will be hard to beat IF staying

There were a few ante-post punters rather miffed that he didn’t go for the juvenile hurdle won by Murcia here on Thursday – as it turned out, he could have had a real job on trying to give that mare 7lb – but this does look an enticing opportunity.

As the only 4yo in the field, he gets a whopping 10lb from the opposition and that is a real Brucie (or is it Brucey?) Bonus considering he is already the form horse here (officially by 9lb and more), with the time figure to back it up.

He is [5/4] in three places – the [11/8] was taken on Friday morning – and even that price may be coming under pressure soon enough.

I am not sure I buy the fact that he was blindsided by Poniros after seeing off main market rival East India Dock in the Triumph Hurdle, as his jockey hardly stopped riding, and the close proximity of a 118-rated horse in fifth (albeit an unexposed one) casts a smidgeon of doubt over the strength of the race.

But, as I said, the time figure probably dismisses that worry.

The problem is short-priced backers have is that he is stepped up to 2m4f (the downside of coming here and getting that 10lb), though I guess that probably won’t be any problem at all on this ground, given he won over 2m2f on heavy on his sole start in France.

It’ll be disappointing if he can’t see these off but I am not paying to find out, thanks.

AKBets are now best price at evens, though Fingle Bridge is now a non-runner.

2.30pm – Erne River could be the best of a bad punting bunch

I’ll cut straight to the chase here. I found this a nasty puzzle to try to solve, and any bet I have will be minimal.

That said, if you want an interest, then I thought Erne River at [25/1] each way, five places – a combination freely available, with one firm going 22s, six places – was the best wager on offer.

Maybe.

The fact that the horse is 1lb out of the handicap and hails from a stable having a very quiet season tells you something about the betting appeal of this race, as is the fact that he is an occasionally hit-and-miss character with youth not on his side at 10yo.

But he has put in three completions together of late and he actually ran well enough (effectively off this mark) when fourth over 3m2f at Doncaster last time.

You can probably mark that form up given the way the race panned out for him, and he is 4lb lower than his last winning effort in December 2023, and the ground and trip are ideal for him.

However, two further negatives to report if you thought that case was already wafer-thin…

His five starts at Aintree have yielded a fall, a 13^th of 22, a 10^th of 11, and two pulled ups (one in this race last season), and I imagine he is exactly the sort of horse who will trade at 50+ on the exchange.

And more come the day.

Like I said, it’s a nasty little handicap. I’ll probably end up having a few quid win-only on Erne River if truth be told.

Myretown, who ranged from 11/4 to 7/2, came out at 10.41am on Friday as he didn’t eat up. Doctor Ken has now followed suit.

3.05pm – 33/1 Altobelli could be the coming force in a poor division

Teahupoo proved he could cut it on decent ground when second in the Stayers’ Hurdle last time but, even with the watering, I imagine this will be even quicker than Cheltenham and this makes him vulnerable once again.

The staying hurdling division is still holding out for a hero then, and I think Altobelli could be worth a dart at [33/1] here.

He is that price in 15 places, with one of those firms offering four places.

Take that if you can.

Now, there are obvious negatives here, too.

He is rated only 147 and hails from a stable you’d like to see in better form (they won this race in 2019), for all Gidleigh Park ran a stormer on Thursday.

Oh, and he has never raced beyond an extended 2m3f before and he ran badly on his only previous start here.

But the key to this horse’s chance is the progression he has made of late since cheekpieces were applied, and he was particularly impressive when beating Joyeux Machin (who should have won next time) over that extended 2m3f at Ascot recently on ground that Timeform called good.

His time figures look decent, too.

Okay, that was only off a mark of 137 but he strikes me as a horse who could improve for this greater stamina test – after that win last time his trainer said “It’s a shame they don’t have a festival here in four weeks. Altobelli is on an upward curve and hopefully he can keep climbing now. I imagine we’ll enter him in the Coral Cup and another step up in trip would be a plus if anything “ – and the Grade 1 dice is worth throwing in a division that lacks any wow factor.

I want four places on my side each-way here, so take the 33s if you can (see Oddschecker). But the 28s and 25s elsewhere is acceptable too.

For those who don’t have any of those three accounts – probably the majority in this day and age  – the 33s each way, three places is fine, too.

5pm – 20/1 Touch Me Not worth a small go

Most of the horses I am leaning towards on Saturday come with obvious risks attached and the same is true of Touch Me Not here after he jumped poorly and finished last of five in the Arkle last time.

But he promises to get an uncontested lead here – though I accept Kalif Du Berlais could be problematic if they decide to press on with him again – something he didn’t get in the Arkle, a race in which his jumping fell apart from an early stage.

His earlier efforts make that 20s quote in a place, and the general 16s, look more than a touch dismissive.

He would have given L’Eau du Sud something to think about had he not made a bad mid-race blunder at Sandown in December and then he went on to finish a fine second to Majborough at the DRF.

Once again, I will underline the doubts – that stable form is still a slight worry for me going into Friday – but the 20s, and the general 16s, underplays his winning chances here, albeit in a race in which I am particularly worried by [15/8] chance Only By Night.

She would have been my idea of the right favourite, but she was declared a NR at 2.02pm.

5.35pm – It is not a Blue Moon, thankfully

At least I won’t be finishing Aintree with a loser in the last, as it is a bumper and I only bet in those once in a blue moon.

And I can’t see one of those forecast.

And I always check the weather….

It is [11/2] if you shop around in this 20-runner race (all are winners), so best of luck.

SATURDAY MORNING RACE-BY-RACE UPDATE ON TODAY’S RACING AT AINTREE (apologies if I have missed some obvious ones – updated 10.21am)

1.20pm: We have 16 going-related NRs on the card as of 3.05pm (22 in total), and Maximilian is one of those. The other no show in here with a bruised foot is Navajo Indy.

I know rugby players who have played on with broken limbs, so he is a bit of a jessie.

No massive moves in here, with fixed-odds money seemingly around for Catch Him Derry, Bo Zenith (ITV will probably randomly say Pricewise here for no reason – they like doing that), Park Of Kings and Rushmount.

UPDATE: Two big NRs just in. Jeriko Du Reponet and Bo Zenith both NRs as at 8.16am and 8.15am – both ground. They’ll be changing each way terms here, so check your bets.

Nurse Susan is out now, too.

1.55pm:  Couldn’t see any moves of note here , and no attempted lame jokes either. Moon Phases and Fingle Bridge are both NRs, due to the going. Rumours doing the rounds suggest Lulamba could be a NR….

UPDATE: It was true. He is a NR as at 8.16am

2.30pm: Two significant NRs here yesterday. Myretown was top at [7/2] before coming out yesterday, and Doctor Ken was also high up in the betting around 8s. Imperial Saint is a solid 4s poke. Charlie Uberalles was as big as 22s yesterday and is now 14s best.

If ITV say Pricewise here, email them and ask what price the horse (Charlie Uberalles) was at 6pm when the column went live.

Spoiler alert – they won’t know.

Heltenham and Peaky Boys are now NRs, too.

3.05pm: Teahupoo is weak on the ground – though at least the stable had three winners yesterday – and he is out to 10/3. Dashel Drasher could be a key NR here as maybe Kitzbuhel, strong enough at [7/2], could maybe get an uncontested lead now if they want to go forward. This race lacks pace (see pace maps below).

Teahupoo is a NR as at 1.50pm.

4pm: One firm are going seven places, proof positive that Bald Men Set The Pace.  This is a static market.

But could there be another Monkerhostin? Apparently the reason why that one crashed in the betting is because one firm took a massive SP bet from a foreign client (a loser), so they shortened him up on the exchange and the fixed-odds market duly followed. Probably wouldn’t cost them half as much these days. If that.

5pm: Touch Me Not ( I won’t make a Russell Brand joke, especially after Ed Chamberlin’s one about Huw Edwards fell rather flat on ITV) was 20s in a place yesterday and is now into 12s. Kalif Du Berlais is strong and Only By Night strangely weak (has hit over 3s on Betfair), as I’d have made her favourite.

5.35pm: It’s a bumper, so who gives a toss. Bond villains Blofeld and Camberwell (carrot) are nons. And so are El Cairos and Edward Sexton now.

There may be even more NRs to come. The course have done all they could here, though.

 

BEST BETS

Minella Cocooner 14/1 each way, six places in Grand National (16s, six places, is available in a spot, as is 14s, seven places, with one firm – see Oddschecker for details. Take those if you can)

Beauport 28/1 or 25/1 each way, six places, in Grand National

Altobelli at 33/1 each way in 3,05pm (take the 33s, four places, if you can – see Oddschecker)

 

AINTREE GROUND, STICK READINGS, WATERING AND WEATHER – updated 10.19m Saturday (8mm watering after racing yesterday)

 

MILDMAY COURSES 

Hurdle (going stick 5.3, Saturday 9am): Good

Chase (5.4, Saturday 9am): Good

 

NATIONAL COURSE 

Good to soft (going stick reading of 5.3, Friday 10am) 

Saturday  morning course update:  17.5mm in March. Temperatures 16-20 degrees all week. Dry, sunny forecast today with temperatures of 18 degrees.

Weather: 19 degrees and sunny

Watering: Watering commenced w/c 17th March. An average of 73-83mm applied including 8mm after racing yesterday.

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Nicky Henderson cheekpieces 19-94 since 2016 – Bo Zenith, 1.20pm

 

Dan Skelton cheekpieces 18-117 (2016) – Nurse Susan, 1.20pm & L’Eau du Sud 5pm

 

Paul Nicholls hood 17-61 (2014) – Regent’s Stroll, 1.55pm

 

 

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (money back for ante-post punters on these – 48 in total)

 

1.20pm (16): Titan Discovery, East India Express, Hardy du Seuil, Long Draw, Hurricane Bay, Tune In A Box, Topgun Simmy, Mr Hope Street ,Thank You Ma’am, Patriotik, The Lord Maid, Crest of Fortune, Erne River, Wilde About Oscar,  Hamsiyann,  Minella Rescue

4pm (23): Yeah Man, Mr Vango, Macdermott ,Mister Coffey , Chemical Energy, Desertmore House, Malina Girl ,Richmond Lake, Stuzzikini, King Turgeon, Surrey Quest, Cruz Control, Apple Away, Busselton, Spanish Harlem, Famous Bridge, Escaria Ten, Where It All Began, Pats Fancy,  Shaken Up’arry, Roi Mage, Favori De Champdou, Fantastic Lady

5.35pm (9): Conman John, Crossgales King, Glance At Midnight, Jorah d’Alma, Sinchi Roca, Starmount, Swingingonthesteel, Land of Punt,  Swingforthefence

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually done)

 

1.20pm Aintree: Bill Joyce, Push The Button, Building Bridges, Dinons, Shanagh Bob?

 

1.55pm Aintree:  Funiculi Funicula, Kappa Jy Pyke, Miami Magic, Regent’s Stroll

 

2.30pm Aintree: Sam Brown, Imperial Saint, Cruz Control, Weveallbeencaught, Docpickedme, Frero Banbou?, Erne River?, Charlie Uberalles

 

3.05pm Aintree:  Kitzbuhel

 

4pm Aintree (pace or prominent) : Royale Pagaille, Nick Rockett, Grangeclere West, Hewick, Conflated, Stumptown, Hitman, Beauport, Bravemansgame, Threeunderthrufive, Intense Raffles, Broadway Boy, Coko Beach, Stay Away Fay, Monbeg Genius, Vanillier, Hyland, Three Card Brag, Twig

 

5pm Aintree: Touch Me Not, Kalif Du Berlais (prom)

 

5.35pm Aintree (limited evidence): Crackerjacque, Destination Dubai, Edward Sexton, Fountains Blenhein, Gaelic Pride, Koktail Brut, Our Boy Stan

 

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done) – updated 7.32pm Friday

 Outstanding: Willie Mullins

Excellent:  Olly Murphy, Killahena and McPherson (three recent winners), Hobbs and White, Jeremy Scott

Good: Lucinda Russell, Anthony Honeyball, Fergal O’Brien, Neil Mulholland (going really well), Nigel Twiston-Davies, , Warren Greatrex, Stuart Edmunds, Ruth Jefferson, Greenall and Guerriero, Paul Nicholls, Dan Skelton

Fair: Ben Pauling, Nicky Henderson (welcome winner with Jonbon), Joseph O’Brien, Harry Derham, Tom Lacey, Gavin Cromwell, Donald McCain, Brian Ellison, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (good winner on Friday), Ian Donoghue, (probably more good), Neil King, John McConnell (fair for him anyway, and 12-1 winner at Dundalk on Friday night), Alan King, Gary and Josh Moore, Dermot McLoughlin, Christian Williams, Mel Rowley, Jessie Harrington, Shark Hanlon, Michael Keady (no winners), Rebecca Menzies, Anthony Charlton, Jennie Candlish, Gordon Elliott (treble on Friday, and two seconds at Aintree), Paul Nolan (10-1 winner on Friday)

Moderate: Harry Fry (very small sample), Henry De Bromhead (winner at Wexford on Friday), Tony Martin

Don’t know: Venetia Williams (been very quiet after a poor March), Jonathan Sweeney, , Paul John Gilligan, Jarlath Farley, Matthew J Smith, Gary McGill, Tom Symonds, Richard Hobson, Nick Kent, Dianne Sayer, Thomas Gibney, Richard Phillips, Patrick Griffin, Andrew Martin