TONY CALVIN: GOODWOOD Day 4 on Friday – Kneel Before Zod

1.50pm – A couple of doubts but 13/2 Defiantly looks solid enough

Sax Appeal is a NR as at 11.33am (swelling).

The Hong Kong World Pool have “insisted” – Kneel Before Zod – that this 2m4f+ handicap is started from stalls for the first time this season.

Bad news for those who enjoyed the usual chaos of the flag/false starts of this race….

I think Goodwood need to clarify aspects of this news stalls procedure though, not least where exactly on the track they are positioned and is stall one on the inside or the outside?

I am probably being stupid as well as ignorant there – it may be common knowledge and bleedin’ obvious – but if you are backing Aggagio (drawn 1) or Kentucky River (18), you’d like to know.

I assume 18 will be on the outside, wherever the stalls are positioned.

That aside, there is a full field of 18 for this marathon test – three horses were balloted out (see below) – but bookmakers have pretty much narrowed down to three at the moment, with [9/2] Valiancy, [5/1] Believitanducan and [13/2] Defiantly, and 11s bar.

I am not going to lie, I don’t have a strong betting opinion but Defiantly (drawn 15) each way at [13/2] each way, with an extra place, looks a solid play to me.

We all know just how competitive Royal Ascot handicaps are so a 4lb rise for just getting chinned by stablemate Kizlyar, with the third 2 1/2 lengths away, in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes seems fair enough to me.

Obviously, we don’t know how he will handle this course and if the first-time blinkers he wore at Ascot will have the same affect here but I’d say [13/2] is a more than acceptable play if you want an interest.

I am not sure if I do, as it stands.

If I get clarification about the stalls, I’ll post it here.

2.25pm – Tricky? Nah, what am I talking about

Talking of Zod, the Hong Kong World Pool sponsor this 1m Group 3 and they would have been delighted that they got seven runners for the each-way/place purposes for their markets.

Now, this is tricky, maybe more so than the betting would have you believe.

Talk Of New York has 7lb and upwards in hand of his six opponents, clocked a sensational time when visually stunning at Sandown and then finished a short-head and 1 3/4 length third to Bow Echo and Gstaad in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot last time despite being a touch too keen early doors.

Tricky? What am I talking about?

He just beats these doesn’t he, though I don’t play at those kind of odds in horse racing.

I backed Lake Forest at 13/8 on Tuesday and about the only time I enjoyed that bet was about 10 yards from the line!

You have to have a hard betting mentality to back shorties all the time (or have more money than sense), and I ain’t got it when it comes to this sport.

I wouldn’t be laying the [4/6], that is for sure.

3pm – Mirsky out – so now on your Guard at 10s each-way with extra place (s)

Cosi Bello (going) and David O’Meara’s Rhoscoyln (last year’s winner who ran yesterday; not eaten up) are NRs on Thursday morning, so reserves Darkness and Walsingham, both trained by O’Meara, get a run.

In fact, Walsingham is in the same ownership as Rhoscolyn.

My main bet in here – albeit to small stakes (Ebt’s Guard is my other bet at 11s but that really is tenner-stuff ) – is O’Meara’s Mirsky, who is available at a huge 40s, and a general 33s, each way.

The stable are often mob-handed in this race, but they have had a lot of success in it in recent years.

Okay, his draw in 10 is not ideal but a high berth is not insurmountable in this race as recent renewals have shown – though you need several slices of Luck Pie admittedly (I am surprised the great man isn’t bridging out into pastry and hot food stalls at racecourses to complete his world domination) – and Mirsky was a big ole’ eyecatcher at Sandown last time.

Let’s just call it a means-to-an-end outing, though in his defence he did get hampered on a couple of occasions up the straight and maybe his chance when with their hampering (is hampering a word?).

He is 1lb lower than when beaten under 5 lengths in the 7 Buckingham Palace at Royal Ascot two starts and just 1lb higher than when winning the Thirsk Hunt Cup on officially good to firm ground in May (he is due to go down 1lb in future handicaps).

He has never raced at Goodwood before he won at Epsom last summer and I just don’t see him as a 40s and 33s poke.

There endeth the story.

Oh well, I better make the case for 10/1 Ebt’s Guard now

Mirsky is also in the 50k ITV handicap at Thirsk on Saturday, but I presume this is the number one plan.

I found out why he was kept in at Thirsk as he has just been made a NR here at 1.04pm because of the going.

Oh well, back to the drawing board and I come back to the now- [10/1] chance Ebt’s Guard  – one firm are offering that price and six places, which is obviously a very good trade if you can access it.

He is drawn well in three, he has run to a very consistent level on his last three starts, a mile on quick ground is his bag and he has run two crackers on both starts here, including when a length second in this race last season.

Given a fair wind, he looks a very solid each-way proposition with the extra place (s).

Anyone but Tribal….

Tribal Chief has the ability to win this and then some, but if he misses the kick again from stall four – he would have won at Sandown last time with a clean kick, and he really broke my heart that day – then he is in a whole world of bother.

Plus he is no great shakes at around 7s, with the slow-starting issue, plus his stable are in pretty woeful nick, too.

I may have to have a saver to pay for a new TV if he wins.

3.35pm – Whose turn is it anyway? The forgiving may say Asfoora…

Whose turn is it anyway?

We all know the score with Group sprints in the UK, and fair play if you have a strong betting opinion here.

Anything could win.

Anything.

The obvious inclination is to row in with a real end-to-end blitzer in this race and the likes of the penalised Night Raider (favourite at 7/2) and Jakajaro (6s) fit that bill , but I was moved to look further afield.

Sweden and Australia.

It’ll be a total guess-up but the Swedish speedster Lamborghini Bf would appear to be a fair tool – as a rating of 106 attests – but my main dilemma  here was to whether to give Asfoora another chance.

I am firmly of the opinion that her jockey gave up far too soon after a tardy start at Sandown last time, though I fully accept that he may have got no feel whatsoever from her and the 7yo mare could be ready for retirement (indeed she is going home to the sheds after this, or the Nunthorpe).

It could be a similar story if the mare misses the kick again here, I fully accept that.

But, previous to that Sandown no-show, she had run  perfectly well when beaten just 2 lengths in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and, at her 115-rated 2024 and 2025 best, she beats these.

And you’d hope she has been showing a touch more sparkle in her homework to be running here, though I suppose it could simply be a case of one last hurrah.

She may have underperformed in this race last season but she was beaten only a short-head the year before.

I will barely have an interest that could be classed and register as a bet, but a few quid is heading her direction at 12s or bigger win-only (currently £4.88 secured at 13.5 , with a few more pence unmatched….).

I have had a massive press-up of a tenner at 16.5.

4.10pm – Really tough race to call and no bet for me

Now, this is top-notch as far as a conditions’ race goes ; ratings-wise, it is Group 2-level.

The first thing that struck me about this race is that there is a ton of pace on paper – well, I suppose it would have, as the first thing I do is the pace map.

I had seven of the nine as forward-goers.

Obviously, a fair few of these will rein it in, but you’ll need to fully see out the 1m1 trip, that is for sure.

I thought this was a really tough race to call but I’d have Galen as my favourite and you can make a fair case for Naqeeb at 9s win-only (and a touch bigger win-only at the moment). I am not sure this race has an each-way shape given the depth of horse involved here, and the 50s poke Ambiente Friendly is not a total no-hoper (even though he must be a big runner in any worst-campaigned horse’s list).

The problem with Naqeeb is he carries a 5lb penalty for his win here last September but at least five of his rivals have burdens too (some 5lb; some 3lb) and his form figures of 212 underline his liking for this track.

He has run up to his best in his last two starts and he is 3lb better off for the short-head he was beaten by Boiling Point here in May, and he is 9s and the winner is 13/2.

Of course, he has eight others to see off but I though 9s was fair, if not exactly bet-inducing for me.  It is a virtually a powder-dry/powder puff betting day for me once again but I make no apologies for that.

I’ll have a look at the non-ITV races later, probably on Friday morning, when I will also do the usual betting update, too.

So please return then.

1.COURSE DETAILS

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good to firm, good in places

Going Stick: 7.4, Thursday 7.50am

33.9% soil moisture

Rails: All races will be run on inner lines

Stalls: 5f, 6f; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside Rest; Inside

PLEASE NOTE THE 2M4F HANDICAP WILL NOW USE STARTING STALLS (Hong Kong World Pool have insisted on this change…)

THURSDAY COURSE UPDATE: 0.4mm rain Sunday. A dry & settled outlook 25-29C for the week. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB

WATERING: 10mm to the Straight Monday 15mm to the Round Course Tuesday 12mm to the Straight Wednesday 10mm to the Round Course Thursday 7.5mm to the Straight on Friday 5mm to Round Course on Saturday 8mm to the Straight on Sunday 5mm Mile to 6f Monday 5mm to the Round Course Tuesday Night 5mm to Straight and 3.5mm to bends Wednesday night

Weather forecast:  Dry and sunny, 25-27 degrees

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

Joseph O’Brien blinkers; Andab, 2.25pm; 15-145 (since 2016)

William Haggas blinkers; Saber Strike, 2.25pm; 31-195 (2009)

3.BALLOTED OUT HORSES (get your ante-post money back on these)

1.50pm: Sixty Plus, Treasure Islands, Wise Counsellor

3pm –  Alpha Crucis, God Of War, Boyfriend, Kodi Lion, Nostrum, New Image, St Anton, Clouds Hill, Leadman, Langstone, Blue Courvosier, Wild Thoughts (El Matador was not confirmed so punters/owners miss out there)

4.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm Goodwood (from stalls for first time this year):  Believitanducan (prom – drawn 16), Anniversary (14),  Sea Of Kings (11), Aggagio (1) – Sax Appeal is a NR

2.25pm Goodwood: Five Ways (1), Shayem (6), Yazin (2)

3pm Goodwood: Cerulean Bay? (13), Archivist (20), Minster Winston (19), Classic? (12), Scoville (18), Blue Brother (8), Bunjola Bay (11)

3.35pm Goodwood: Night Raider (13), Jakajaro (5), Jm Jungle (14), Lamborghini Bf  (2), Partisan Hero (8), Brussels (11), Argentine Tango (1)

4.10pm Goodwood: Boiling Point (6), Naqeeb (3), Crown Of Oaks (7), Diego Ventura (5), Ambiente Friendly (2), Galen (9), Haatem (prom – 8)

5.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Thursday)

Good:  Andrew Balding (excellent),  Ralph Beckett,  John and Thady Gosden (excellent), Charlie Appleby, Joseph O’Brien (excellent from such a big sample), James Owen (excellent), Roger Varian (excellent), Karl Burke (flying along), George Scott, Kevin Phillipart De Foy, Jack Channon, George Baker (4 from 11), Jonathan Portman, Willie Mullins (Galway treble on Wednesday), Richard Hannon, Tony Martin (a rather good 48 hours at Galway)

Fair: Hamad Al Jehani (very small sample, as usual), William Haggas ( nearer good), David O’Meara (double on Wednesday),   Newland and Insole, , Ian Williams,  Michael Bell, Muir and Grassick (winner on Wednesday evening), Brian Meehan, Harry Eustace, Tim Easterby, Charlie Fellowes, David Loughnane (fair/moderate),  Aidan O’Brien (Goodwood double on Thursday), Gary and Josh Moore (no winners), John and Sean Quinn, Ed Bethell (fair/moderate), Jim Goldie (fair/moderate), Charlie Hills

Moderate: Kevin Ryan,  Julie Camacho, David Menuisier,  Olly Murphy, Charlie Johnston (very welcome 33-1 winner on Thursday)

Don’t know: M Seror, Alan King, Frederick Reuterskiold, Henry Dwyer