TONY CALVIN: A 12/1 chance has punting legs on Good Friday

INTRODUCTION on Wednesday – and I may be back

I like to think I have a decent enough work ethic, if nothing else, but I can tell you right now that I can’t remember the last time I had a bet at Chelmsford –  and Newcastle and Lingfield aren’t far behind – so I almost certainly won’t be betting on the 11 all-weather ITV races on Good Friday.

It is my idea of punting hell, as I just don’t follow this area to any meaningful degree these days. And trying to dip in and out of different disciplines is often a recipe for failure.

If I am not getting involved financially, then I don’t really think it is worth me churning out my usual no-bet guff.

But I’ve done the usual stats and information below (the amount of balloted out horses is unreal), which probably takes far longer than other columns take to pen.

That sounded a bit haughty, sorry.

If the tipping side of things changes, I’ll be back – and it is possible, when I wake up around 4am on Thursday morning and want a study-up – but I think I am going to concentrate on Saturday’s turf action at Musselburgh and Haydock.

I am back – update 8.45am Thursday

I’ve only had one bet myself at this stage. But, before we get on to that one, a few other thoughts.

Cyclonite now 22s in two places

Cyclonite is overpriced at 22s in a place in the 1.50pm at Newcastle, as the course winner just looks very solid . However, it would be unfair to cherry-pick that price as he is a general 16s.

Actually, he is now 22s in two places as at 7.26am on Friday, which tempts me.

Although he is having his first start since December, I thought the progressive Duke Of Oxford had a lot going for him in the 4.42pm at Newcastle, but the 6s is probably a touch too skinny for me.

Similar comments apply to 7s chance Kind of Kiss in the 2.05pm at Lingfield; sound chance, coming to the boil nicely off a falling handicap mark, but 7s was no bargain in a field of this depth.

There isn’t a lot of pace in the 3.15pm at Lingfield, so I wondered if they would go forward on 9s poke Silky Wilkie here.

Anyway, on to the bet I’ve had.

The sole bet

3pm Newcastle – 12/1 Popmaster has scope to shorten further

I did indeed get up at silly o’clock on Thursday morning, as per usual, and so I had a fair (ish) look at Good Friday’s racing.

Popmaster opened up at 14s in four places on Thursday, which was taken, and I can see why.

He is still available at 12s in 14 places though (the firm offering five places go 11s), and that still looks too tempting to resist.

Perhaps.

You decide.

I’ll re-iterate that all-weather racing is certainly not my bag, but I have had a small bet on Popmaster because he seems to tick most boxes.

Maybe the jockey isn’t one, as he seems to find a lot of trouble in running at this track to judge from comments on X (tough crowd on there…), but, against that, he has won 166 times at this course, I guess.

You will get hard luck stories in this full field of 14 (six were balloted out) and Popmaster may be one as he tries to thread his way through late doors from his stall in nine, but he looks to have a fair shot at this with a clear run.

Not least because he arrives here on a very good mark of 99 – the trainer has done wonders, with the help of all concerned – after not having the kitchen sink thrown at him of late, including two fair, recent sighters at this course, including a 1 1/2 length third to Storm Star on New Year’s Day off a 4lb higher mark (the winner is a whopping 13lb worse off here).

Billy Loughnane certainly did not look at his strongest when guiding the horse to a fair fourth at Kempton last time, and Popmaster got dropped another 1lb for it.

Rated 109 at the start of last season, he is now 10lb lower, and he has run any number of good races in the interim, not least when a short-head second to Roi De France – the favourite in here, but now 10lb worse off – off 100 at Kempton in November.

I get he is a 7yo, the joint oldest in here, but even so.

This is a 150k race, so any number will have had this as a long-term plot/aim (it’s a hugely competitive handicap), but I’d say Popmaster is definitely one of them for his likeable owner Laurence Bellman.

The 11s, five places, is probably the best bet, but the general 12s, four places, is the fairer recommendation if you want an interest.

Given the scope for trouble in running, maybe the safety net of an each-way bet is in order.

BET

Popmaster at [12/1], each way, in 3pm at Newcastle. Available in 14 places (the 11s, five places, with one firm, is probably better).

GOING AND STALLS

NEWCASTLE: Standard

Stalls: 1m2f and 1m4f – Outside 2m – Inside Straight course – Centre

LINGFIELD: Standard

 Stalls: 5f & 1m – outside Remainder – inside

CHELMSFORD: Standard

The track will be lightly decompacted and gallopmaster finished for racing.

Stalls: 6f centre, remainder inside.

BALLOTED OUT HORSES (reserves likely to be balloted out, too) – I think i counted 80, so get your money back on these if you backed them ante-post

1.30pm Lingfield: Sax Appeal, Moel Arthur, Etretat, Caelan, Kinetic, Media Mogul, Inchiquin Maid.  Marioento

2.40pm Lingfield: Local Hero, Dolce Courage, Cephalus, Urban Sprawl, Brasil Power ,Commanding Prince, Invincible Aura, Cadarn, Kitaro Kich, Rey de La Batalla, Rizg, Hitched, Overnight Oats, Ash Wednesday, Port Road, Mr Mistoffelees

3.15pm Lingfield: Supreme King. Flying Fletcher, Monsieur Beaulieu, Intervention, One Night Stand, Rebel Empire, Jungle Land, Ziggy’s Condor, Invincible Speed, Rizg, Kats Bob, Dashing Harry.

3.50pm Lingfield: Diamont Katie, Standput ,Supernova Steps

4.20pm Lingfield: Sun Dancer, Girl, Currumbin, Moel Arthur, Inchiquin Maid, Media Mogul, Alex The Great

4.50pm Lingfield: Fiorella Princess, Baileys Jubilation, Kamekist, Party Bear,  Rock N Roll Rocket,  Frankies Dream, Macedoniam, Diamont Katie,  Chutim Manika,  Alashoms, Sandscreendliver, Dream Out Loud

1.50pm Newcastle: Ay Gee Ell Fan Mail, Blue Lakota, Frankies Dream, Tattie Bogle, Soldiers Star

3pm Newcastle: Mr Baloo, Kalamunda, Rogue Encore, Urban Sprawl, Longhaired General, Local Hero, Dulce Courage

3.35pm Newcastle: Prince of Pillo, Pals Battalion, Flying Fletcher, Rebel Empire, Ziggy’s Condor, Cajetan, Almarada Prince

4.07pm Newcastle: Royal Approval , Lordsbridge Blue, Humble Spark

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

David O’Meara cheekpieces 21-143 (since 2016) – Viennoise, 2.25pm Newcastle

J P Murtagh cheekpieces 11-131 (2016) – Final Voyage, 3pm Newcastle

Clive Cox blinkers 16-125 (2009) – Diligent Harry, 3.35pm Newcastle

James Fanshawe cheekpieces 4-32 (2016) – Willem Twee, 3.35pm Newcastle

Richard Fahey blinkers 20-167 (2009) – Golden Mind, 3.35pm Newcastle

George Scott cheekpieces 7-68 (2016) – Moulin Booj, 3.15pm Lingfield

George Boughey cheekpieces 14-101 (2020) – Get Jiggy With It and Naughty Eyes,  3.50pm Lingfield

PACE MAPS (manually done)

1.50pm Newcastle : Good Banter, Carbine Harvester, Berkshire Whisper (prom), Dark Ace, Hello Zaman, Humam?, Marchogian, Megaphone, Master Technician (prom),

2.05pm Lingfield: Mr Baloo (prom), Kind Of Kiss (prom), Silent Age, Bajan Bandit (prom)

2.25pm Newcastle : Shallow, Viennoise, Pasha,

2.40pm Lingfield: Legal Reform, Bravo Zulu, Dingle

3pm Newcastle : Valiant Force, Symbol Of Light, Destructive, Exquisite Acclaim

3.15pm Lingfield: Cinque Verde, Silky Wilkie?

3.35pm Newcastle : Diligent Harry, Golden Mind, We Never Stop (prom)

3.55pm Lingfield: Dark Lyric, Get Jiggy With It?, Eazy On The Eye, Handle With Care (prom), Baileys Jubilation (prom), Mayo County (prom)

4.07pm Newcastle: Charlotte’s Web?, Penzance, Salamanca

4.30pm Chelmsford : Jouncy (prom), Mr Lightside, Sayidah Dariyan

4.42pm Newcastle: Tribal Star, Midnight Lion, Circuit Breaker, Wonder

TRAINERFORM (manually done; ITV races; includes trainers with balloted out horses)

Good: Andrew Balding (in great nick), Peter Chapple-Hyam, Newland and Insole, Roger Varian, Heather Main, James Owen (another winner on Wednesday, and 25-1 and 8-1 scorers on Thursday), Rod Millman, Tony Carroll, Craig Lidster, Richard Hughes, James Tate, George Boughey, James Fanshawe, Jack Jones, Ed Bethell, Rebecca Menzies, David Thompson, Adrian Murray, Gary and Josh Moore, Jack Channon, P Decouz, Jane Chapple-Hyam, John and Thady Gosden (a rather impressive winner on Wednesday,, and another scorer on that day, too), William Haggas (three winners on Thursday)

Fair: Karl Burke, Mick Appleby (no winners), Brian Ellison (9-2 winner on Wednesday), Richard Fahey (winner on Thursday),  Kevin Philippart De Foy (3-1 winner on Wednesday), Julie Camacho, Jim Boyle, Jennie Candlish, David Evans, David Loughnane, Archie Watson, Marco Botti, Richard Hannon, David Simcock (borderline moderate with a small sample), Sam England (winner on Wednesday), David O’Meara (winner on Thursday), Grant Tuer, George Scott, Ruth Carr, James Horton, Michael Herrington, Stuart Williams, Jim Goldie, Charlie Johnston, Clive Cox, Adrian McGuinness (7-1 winner on Wednesday), Simon and Ed Crisford, James Ferguson, Tim Easterby (40-1 winner on Thursday), Kevin Ryan (winner on Thursday), Roger Fell, Tracy Waggott, Ed Walker, Michael Bell, Johnny Murtagh (3-1 winner on Wednesday), Scott Dixon, Ollie Sangster, Hugo Palmer (14-1 winner on Thursday), Alan King, Ed Dunlop (13-2 winner on Wednesday), Ian Williams

Moderate:  Mark Loughnane, Sean Woods, Michael Wigham (small sample), George Baker , Richard Spencer (maybe harsh), Daniel and Claire Kubler. Linda Perratt, Ivan Furtado

Don’t know: Simon Pearce, Gavin Hernon, Simon Dow, Dan Horsford, Nick Littmoden,  Roger Teal, Amanda Perrett, John Wainwright, Joseph Parr