By Tony Calvin - 29 September 2025
The clerk of the course called the ground soft on the Nick Luck Daily podcast yesterday (Monday) but some of those who follow French racing thought it may currently be nearer good, and weren’t ruling out the possibility of watering.
That said, rain is due on Friday and Saturday (plenty now – see below), and the amounts currently vary as to how much, so no-one has any real, accurate handle on what the ground for the Arc will be on Sunday.
Waiting before betting surely has to be the call.
There is no need to rush.
There are currently 17 in the race, with Minnie Hauk set to be supplemented on Wednesday (for 120k euros).
There is a second forfeit stage today (Tuesday), with the supplementary stage on Wednesday, with the final field known on Thursday.
I’ll reiterate – wait before having a bet on the race until we know the final fields, draw and ground etc. You’ll probably get better prices, too.
The final fields will be known for Saturday’s racing at Longchamp on Thursday, and those for the non-Arc races on Sunday will be available on Friday.
The forecast, as of Wednesday afternoon (it has been changing a lot), is as below.
It is obviously crucial to know just how much of that lands, and where you are drawn, and I probably won’t be betting until Sunday morning.
AKBETS on The Arc (click on race link to go to the website betting and place a bet – prices as of 8.50am Wednesday): 7/2 Minnie Hauk (to be supplemented today), 4/1 Aventure, 7/1 Byzantine Dream, 8/1 Croix Du Nord, 9/1 Sosie, 12/1 Cualificar, Kalpana, Gezora, 14/1 Alohi Alli, Daryz, 18/1 Estrange, 20/1 Giavellotto, 28/1 Quisisana, 33/1 Los Angeles, White Birch, Leffard, 80/1 Arrow Eagle, Hotazhell
Looking at the current forecast for Ascot, I’d maybe be looking at a combination of good to soft and soft on Saturday, but who knows?
I’ll pretty much repeat that line another twice, very shortly.
This looks a pretty nasty 7f Listed race at the five-day stage, with 27 entries in a tight-knit field, ratings-wise.
Little wonder it is 5s the field then, though you could argue nothing in here should be that short, given the depth of the field at this stage (maximum field of 20 on the day).
These are doubly entered as of Tuesday morning, so I wouldn’t touch these myself: Circe, Circios, Dash Of Azure, Dubai Beach, Dubai Treasure, Elim, Jabaara, Miss Nightfall, Nariko, Rockymountainway, Rogue Sensation, Stop The Cavalry and Sunlit Uplands.
Similar comments apply to the 20-runner 5f Listed Rous Stakes (maximum possible field of 18 on the day).
These are those with alternative engagements: Getreadytorumble, Kassaya, Kerdos, Pearl Of Windsor, Songhai and Trefor.
I’d have no issue with the in-form Shagraan and Beautiful Diamond vying for favouritism at 4s, but I see zero need to get involved now.
AKBets are betting on this race if you do.
Circus Of Rome has been confirmed for Ascot on Friday.
If I was a bookmaker, I wouldn’t price this up, and plenty haven’t.
Those who have think it is a three-way go between Hamish, Ethical Diamond and Al Qareem.
Sunway may go to the Cadran (only three in it at the moment but supplements to come, and maybe plenty of them – there are eight now with Tashkhan, Coetzee, Queenstown, Caballo De Mar and Sacred Spirit added on Wednesday), but I don’t know.
This looks a more manageable ante-post field to decipher, with just 17 entered (the maximum field could have been 18) for this 85k 6f Group 3, with Marchogian and Ten Pounds set to run at Kempton on Wednesday, too.
I have been following Annaf closely this season, and I wouldn’t like to be laying him at 8s and 7s in this.
In fact, I have just backed him at 8s, which is still there in many places (not much £££-wise, but with a definite view to pressing up if he gets confirmed on Thursday and the price is still acceptable) as I think he has an outstanding chance in a very winnable race.
AKBets are 8s, too.
He won this race as the [5/2] favourite in 2023 and I think a reproduction of any three of his 10 performances this season will see him hard to beat here.
Sure, he hasn’t won in those 10 starts in 2025 (at least he doesn’t carry a penalty, like Quinault), but he will take some whacking on his 3-length seventh to Never So Brave in the 7f Group 1 City Of York Stakes on his penultimate start, a trip that stretches his stamina.
I had a fair old go at him at massive prices in the Betfair Sprint Cup last time but, coming out of trap four, he had no chance in that draw-bias race (the first four home were berthed in 15-19-16-13, with 18 not occupied).
Aside from his win in this race two years ago, he has also finished third in a King’s Stand here in 2023, and, even though he is getting on a bit at six and potentially faces progressive 3yos such as the dangerous Prince Of India – so he is hardly the sexy angle – he has the class to take care of these if on song.
I couldn’t see him as being entered in any Longchamp races this weekend – and, for what it is worth, Danny Muscutt is already jocked up here (though I tend not to factor this in much) – and I am happy to take this field on.
Annaf has been travelling into his races like a winner waiting to happen given the right opportunity, and this is his grade and time to shine.
In addition to Marchogian and Ten Pounds being set to run on Wednesday, Circe, Jabaara, Kullazain, Lou Lou’s Gift, Nariko and Tuco Salamanca are doubly entered.
From this quarter, they are actively encouraged to go elsewhere….
I’d be very happy to come back to this 180k 7f handicap once we know the field on Thursday, though I may have another look on Tuesday afternoon.
I can see this race being far more aggressively traded once we know the final 18 (currently 33 in here).
Well, we can but hope it is traded so, anyway.
Native Warrior is the 5s favourite, though we have five horses that are well-in: Balmacara (due to go up 7lb), Thunder Roar (4), Tarkhan (2), Purosangue (2) and Back In Black (1),
With that in mind it is surprising to see Balmacara on offer at a general 25s, but he is also entered in a Listed race at Redcar on Saturday.
I quite like Back In Black, but I reckon we may get a better price-place combo than 8s about him come the weekend – AKBets are top at 8s if you disagree – though he is as low as 6s.
If he gets in that is, as he needs five to come out to get a run.
He is a best-priced 7s now on Wednesday morning, a price available with AKBets.
Even though it is currently good to firm there (though they haven’t updated on Tuesday yet – they have now, no change, but still no going stick reading since Saturday), looking at the current forecast for Newmarket, I’d maybe be looking at a combination of good and good to soft on Saturday, especially if they water before the expected rain, but who knows?
Just the one bookmaking outfit has priced this race up, so it is pretty pointless previewing this, especially as the shape of this race could change at 10am on Tuesday – see updated double entries below)
For what it is worth, Morrophore is their [5/2] favourite.
Again, it appears just the one bookmaking outfit has priced this race up.
Quite a bold move to provide odds on a 31-runner 2yo auction race at this stage, but Half Sovereign is the predictable [7/4] favourite.
That [7/4] has gone, into [11/8], as of Wednesday morning.
Not a race (which can house 30 runners on the day) many will be screaming to play in at this stage, I imagine.
Court Alert, Colori Forever, What’s The Plan and Hakin Adraar are doubly-entered.
There are currently 13 in the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes.
However, if you are thinking of having an ante-post bet in this race on Saturday, please be aware that Bedtime Story has been confirmed for the Royallieu on Saturday and those left in Sunday’s Prix de l’Opera on Wednesday morning include: Cinderella’s Dream (9-4 favourite), Lady Of Spain (7s third fav), Exactly and January (8s fourth favs) and Bedtime Story (33s).
No way would I keep this market up as a bookmaker.
In addition, connections of Fallen Angel will be hoping the rain forecast later in the week lands in order to run.
It could well be a decent, nay thieving, each-way betting race at this stage – if you can know about/can land on a runner.
As ever, that isn’t anywhere near as easy as it sounds.
Those left in the Prix de l’Opera on Wednesday morning: Cinderella’s Dream, Lady Of Spain, Bedtime Story, Exactly and January.
Yet again, this Newmarket race has seen just the one bookmaking outfit price this race up, and they have done so rather defensively.
They make Hot Flame and Orionis are their [5/2] joint favourites, with another five horses trading at between 5s and 8s.
It is currently good to soft, good in places – though they still haven’t updated their ground on Tuesday – but looking at the current forecast for Redcar , I’d maybe be looking at a combination of soft/heavy on Saturday (maybe just soft) but who knows?
We look pretty certain not to get a full field for Redcar’s Two Year Trophy as we have 24 entries for a race that can take 23 on the day, and Brightling and Mystical Eye are due to run today and tomorrow, while Court Alert has a Saturday alternative at Newmarket.
Song Of The Clyde is the general [9/4] and [5/2] favourite (3s in a place) to get another big payday for his owners in this 150k event, and you can obviously see it.
Argentine Tango is another horse with solid form and time claims but she has danced so many dances – see what I did there? – that she is easy enough to pass over, even off a feather weight of 8st 3lb.
The only other off bottom weight of 8st 3lb (besides the aforementioned Brightling) is Arduis Invicta.
She isn’t ground-dependent and she is rapidly improving on the evidence of a seemingly much-improved third in Listed company at Ayr last time on soft ground as a 40s poke (the handicapper upped her a whopping 18lb for it – it is always “whopping” in these circs).
That was the first time she had raced on anything slower than good according to Timeform (though it was officially good to soft when she won at Musselburgh previously, the form of which admittedly is less than impressive), so the ground could be the key to her sudden progress.
Her sire loved the slop, as well as better ground too, admittedly.
Redcar could get over 20mm by race-time.
I’ve seen worse 16s pokes – getting so much weight (she is actually officially a 1lb superior horse to the favourite on these terms) brings her right into the form equation here – but that price will come under immediate pressure, so 14s are more representative/realistic odds (available in nine places) for those tempted to get involved.
AKBets go 14s.
Craig Lidster has two in here (the other is 69-rated) and I imagine he will run both if they are fit and well given the decent moolah on offer down to sixth.
Arduis Invicta is best at 12s as of Wednesday morning.
Annaf at 8s each way in 3pm at Ascot
Arduis Invicta at 16s/14s win-only in 3.20pm at Redcar
GOING – Good to firm
Going stick: 7.5, Wednesday 1.30pm
Rails: Far Side Course in Use
Stalls: Centre
Wednesday afternoon course update: 1mm of rain on Sunday, but dry since. Forecast: Thursday: Dry and cloudy, max daytime temp of 17c. Friday – Threat of showers or periods of sustained rain (5 – 10mm) with strong winds. Saturday – Early morning showers before turning to a dry afternoon with the odd sunny spell. Guests of 45mph are expected during the afternoon.
Weather: Showers from Thursday afternoon with 16mm Friday
GOING – Good
Going stick – Straight: 7.3; Round: 6.2
Moisture: 32%
Some drainage works; sand slitting has been completed on the round course between the 1M 4F start and the 5F marker since the previous meeting
Rails: The rail on the round course is positioned between 5 and 8yds out from the 1M 4F start to the Home bend where it increases to 14yds out at the Home straight where the rail finishes in a cutaway. The straight course is divided in two with a rail in the middle of the course from the 1m start to approx 2.5f from the winning line. The stands side will be in use for this meeting.
Wednesday morning course update: 2.5mm rain recorded over last weekend, dry since then to 7.30am Wednesday. It is due to stay dry until Friday when rain/ showers are forecast both Friday (9 to 11mm) and Saturday (3 to 5mm). We are currently estimating that we will receive 4 to 5mm rain before racing on Friday.For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing
Weather: Showers from Thursday afternoon with 20mm Friday
GOING – Good, good to soft in places
Going stick: 8.2, Wednesday 1.15pm
Wednesday afternoon course update: 3mm rain on Saturday night. Dry & sunny afternoon on Sunday, 17C. Dry, calm and overcast on Monday, 15C. Dry, warm and light breeze on Tuesday, 20C. 1mm rain during Wednesday morning, then dry and calm, with temps of 16C. The outlook remains unsettled for Friday and Saturday morning, with 6mm rain forecast, along with strong westerly winds on Friday and Saturday and temps of 13C.
Weather: 3,5mm Thursday; 7.8mm Friday; 8.4mm Saturday
GOING – Soft (others close to the French racing scene think it may be nearer good at moment, though)
Weather: Dry until 3.9mm Friday; 9.6mm Saturday (admittedly varies from site to site, and day-to-day on same site)
1.15pm Ascot: Circe, Circios, Dash Of Azure, Dubai Beach, Dubai Treasure, Elim, Jabaara, Miss Nightfall, Nariko, Rockymountainway, Rogue Sensation, Stop The Cavalry, Sunlit Uplands
1.30pm Newmarket: Aiming High, Hot Flame, Mrs Twig, Nightinwhiteinsatin (due to run at Nottingham on Thursday), North Star, Opera Wave, Perfect Your Craft, Revelance
1.50pm Ascot: Getreadytorumble, Kassaya, Kerdos, Pearl Of Windsor, Songhai, Trefor
2.05pm Newmarket: Court Alert, Colori Forever, What’s The Plan, Hakin Adraar
2.25pm Ascot: Circus Of Rome (due to run at Ascot on Friday) and Sunway (confirmed for Cadran)
2.40pm Newmarket: Bedtime Story (confirmed for Royallieu on Saturday)
Those left in the Prix de l’Opera on Wednesday morning: Cinderella’s Dream, Lady Of Spain, Bedtime Story, Exactly and January
3pm Ascot: Circe, Jabaara, Kullazain, Lou Lou’s Gift, Marchogian (due to run on Wednesday), Nariko, Ten Pounds (due to run on Wednesday), Tuco Salamanca
3.20pm Redcar: Court Alert, Mystical Eye (due to run on Wednesday), Brightling (last of 13 at Bath on Tuesday)
3.35pm Ascot: Balmacara, Russet Gold (due to run at Ascot on Friday), Sword
3.50pm Newmarket: Aiming High, Alpine Oasis, Hot Flame, Mrs Twig, North Star, Opera Wave, Perfect Your Craft
On this week’s pod: Intro: Royal Ascot & World Cup (0-3mins) Quick Racing Review (3-4mins)…
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities? Your Song is…
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