TONY CALVIN: TREAD carefully in this ground – but a few big-priced runners to consider today

THE Friday 5.45am intro – ground now called soft, good to soft in places, as at 6.53am

As I tweeted yesterday afternoon, “every single horse with a semblance of soft/heavy ground form has already been slashed for tomorrow’s racing, so that ground angle ship has long since sailed”.

Let’s hope not of all of them, eh?

That is something all punters have to bear in mind today – it is also why it is crucial to reference odds and price changes in copy, as I imagine plenty will drift back out after the artificial shortening for little/no money  – as well as how the ground will actually ride.

It obviously turned heavy after monsoon-like conditions at Goodwood yesterday (it was a comedy watch from afar), but how will the ground ride today with a dry and sunny day in store, with the outside chance of a light shower in the afternoon?

It will be drying out from heavy and that is often the worst kind of ground if you listen to the jockeys.

The horses could go through it yesterday as it was so wet, but it will be tacky and cloying today, and punting is hazardous as a result.

Even the confirmed deep-ground horses may not like it, as the ole legs may get stuck in the turf (and after the numerous occasions of horses not finishing at Goodwood this week, I am fearful for how it may look/ride).

I’ll be keeping stakes low.

Copy to follow later this morning, maybe around 8ish. I’ll tweet before it goes live.

Did they get more rain after racing? It is now soft, good to soft in places, anyway

Actually, looking at the Goodwood Turftrax site, it says they have had 37.6mm in the last 24 hours, which surprised me (none since midnight).

Did they get more rain after racing? That would suggest 8mm or so.

We will soon know when Goodwood update.

They did indeed get 37mm in total yesterday but Goodwood are calling it soft, good to soft in places, as at 6.53am (going stick reading of 5.7, which indicates soft and nothing better).

THE COPY

1.20pm – Vino and Tash win-only against the field

I imagine a fair amount of punters will have held fire on betting on Friday’s card until they saw how much rain had landed throughout Thursday.

The answer was 28.6mm during racing, and 37mm in total.

Remember, there is a flag start for this 2m4f+ handicap, so the jockeys need to be switched on from the start.

It’s clearly a very tricky race to call, hence it is [9/2] the field, but the one that seemed overpriced to me when I first looked before that biblical 2pm downpour on Thursday was Vino Victrix.

Now, I imagine he would have been aimed at this race ever since he returned in April and connections will be hoping he runs a lot better than he has done in the last two renewals of this race when stuffed at 12/1 twice.

But he runs off his second lowest-ever mark of 81 here (he won off 76 in Sandown in July 2021) and he has enough Goodwood pedigree to be of interest, especially with his stable in fair nick.

He actually won a 2m handicap at this meeting in 2022, when he went on to finish second in the Cesarewitch off a mark of 92.

He has obviously regressed since and can be a bit tricky (he was a massive eyecatcher over 2m under Oisin Murphy here in May last year), but this mark gives him a fair shout in an open race.

He shaped okay under today’s jockey Hollie Doyle at Chelmsford last time (the first time she had ridden him) and hopefully that was a tee-up job for this.

The big possible negative is yesterday’s rain though, as his record suggests good to soft is the deepest he would like it.

After looking at Timeform’s site, soft really looks no good for him.

The big-price mover early on Thursday morning was Zinc White, who was 20s before the downpour, and gathered sustained support after it happened. And to a lesser extent, it was the same with Tashkhan from 14s.

They were both best at 10s by 3pm, and that was only available in one place, and 9s by 3.30pm. Then they were soon 8s.

Then I stopped looking, as soft/heavy ground horses were being cut willy nilly.  Zinc White is now best at 7s (could be coming under pressure), and Tashkhan at 8s.

I have decided I am going to play two win-only on Betfair here to small stakes.

Tashkhan’s absence is a worry but he is 8s fixed-odds and [9.2] on Betfair and I am backing him there, as he has the class to win this off 106, and I am going to take a further risk – and hope the ground isn’t too bad by race-time – and have a few quid win-only on Vino Victrix, currently trading at [22.0].

The fixed-odds prices of that pair of 8s and 18s are acceptable enough if you want to play that route.

Hughie Morrison, trainer of Vino Victrix, has a much better claim perhaps with general [9/2] chance Kyle Of Lochalsh, but I’ll take my chances.

Morrison is in very good nick of late, and he had another winner yesterday.

1.55pm – Seagulls may fly home from the front

It was a two-way book on Thursday morning, with Opera Ballo at [11/10] and Cosmic Year [2/1], with King Of Cities next up at [17/2].

That was pretty much in keeping with the official ratings, with Opera Ballo the marginal top dog after his clear-cut defeat of Seagulls Eleven on the July course last time.

Then Opera Ballo and stablemate Spectacular View were pulled out because of the downpour at 4.16pm, which rendered this a win-only race and pretty unappealing.

That said, Seagulls Eleven ran much better behind Opera Ballo last time and hails from a stable in good form, as well as having form on soft.

He could also have his own way out in front if they revert to his forcing 2yo tactics (they should, as it is an obvious tactical play with no other pace in race) and I think the general [11/2] about him is fair. He is the bet in the race if you want one.

2.30pm – Another two against the field win-only to minimal stakes

Strangely, Treasure Time and first reserve Longlai were pulled out because of the going on Thursday morning.

It was good, good to firm, at the time, with plenty of rain due admittedly, so I am not sure on what basis they were taken out.

Perhaps they were anticipating the rain and, if they were, and they were proved bang right!

Both prefer quicker ground.

Great Chieftain and Two Tempting are also NRs due to the ground with one of the few pace angles, Mirsky, out lame at 11.20am. They were followed by Arisaig.

Anyway, it’s a 150k handicap, and connections of the in-form, second-reserve Dutch Decoy are the beneficiaries and I bet they were loving those two no-shows with the moolah on offer.

He has been cut heavily and is now only 9s, but he has a fair chance all right, along with about 16 others in here, admittedly.

Again, I am going to keep these to minimal stakes but Rhoscoyln at 9s (he is 12.0 on Betfair, though) is my first win-only dart, followed by Afentiko at 28s in a place ([36.0] on Betfair).

I personally am playing them both on the exchange as I don’t need to get much on.

Actually, make that I don’t want to get much on.

Hands up, Rhoscolyn was one of those price collapses from 28s and 25s yesterday, so he may well drift back out (I’ll go in again if he does), but his course form with plenty of dig tells you why he was cut by the books.

He ran okay here on Wednesday, he takes his racing well enough (he has blown out on occasions admittedly when turned out quickly, but he won after a six-day turnaround at Epsom last year) and a mark of 96 is exploitable in the conditions, for all he is due to go down 1lb in future handicaps.

He won off 97 here on heavy ground last September, for all that was only a six-runner race.

Afentiko should handle the ground (Timeform called it soft when he was second in France last season) and he has left the impression he has a decent handicap in him this season following a third from miles off the pace at Haydock on his return, when he was a massive drifter in the market – they probably have to adopt the same tactics,  but not leave it so late this time – and a decent run off a 1lb higher mark than this in the Britannia.

He is low-mileage and simply looks overpriced to me, for all that draw in 22 (effectively widest in 20) is an obvious barrier to overcome.

Take the coward’s route on the outside though, David.

3.05pm – Kerdos a lukewarm lean in a very trappy Group 2

We all know the UK sprinting decision is absolute gash – I repeated that line just for you, Nevin – so a peak-form Asfoora is probably the one to beat, and why the Aussie heads the market at [10/3]. It sounds like connections are going to make a late call on her participation.

But, as we saw with No Half Measures in the July Cup, anything can win these sprinting Group 1 and Group 2s, so don’t rule out the lowly-rated pair of Jm Jungle and Town And Country.

I probably won’t be having a bet in the race but I did think Kerdos at [15/2] each way, five places and four places, was a decent wager if you were able to access those prices (obviously the five places is the stand-out)

The ground will hopefully not be an issue for him (it was soft when he won the Temple Stakes last season), he ran well enough when beaten 2 lengths in this race last season, and he put up a creditable run at Royal Ascot .

His run at Sandown last time was underwhelming, which is why they have stuck first-time cheekpieces on him, I guess.

He looks a relatively safe pair of hands for each-way punters but it’s a lukewarm suggestion, if that.

And he was another cut from 16s and 14s, and downwards, yesterday, no doubt after just a sniff of the barmaid’s apron.

3.45pm – 9/1 Socialiate a big danger if handling the ground

The 3s about Liberty Lane was quickly snaffled as soon as the first brolly went up yesterday and he is now into a best-priced [9/4].

He put up a huge performance to win the Cambidgeshire by 2 ½ lengths off a mark of 105 in the soft last season and this May course winner now returns to an easier surface after a disappointing run on good to firm at Royal Ascot.

Of course, I can see him winning this but he carries a 5lb penalty for that win here in early summer, and this is no easy task at the weights.

Socialiate is interesting against him at 9s in four places as I have him down as likely to get an uncontested lead here, and he was impressive from the front when winning a Windsor handicap off 104 last time. That performance puts him right on the coat-tails of Liberty Lane, form-wise.

The big unknown with him is the ground though, and I feel no need to force a bet in this.

In fact, the same applies to the last two races on Racing TV.

With the ground at it is, punting caution is called for.

FRIDAY STATS AND INFORMATION

GOODWOOD

GOING: Good to soft, soft in places

Going stick : 5.7 Friday 7.20am

49.8% soil moisture

Friday morning course update: 22mm rain last Saturday and Sunday 0.2mm rain Thursday night. 37mm in total yesterday A sunny and breezy day today. Saturday dry with sunny spells. Current weather details from our weather station available here; https://bit.ly/2E6dYhB

Rails:  All false rail removed overnight

Stalls:5f, 6f, 7f, 1m; Centre 1m3f & 1m4f; Outside, Rest; Inside (2m4f Flip Start)

Weather: Dry and sunny, with possibility of light shower in afternoon

BALLOTED OUT (get your money back on these)

2.30pm: Duke’s Command, Linwood, Twisting Physics, Urban Sprawl, Marhaba Ghaiyyath, Mafnood

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (all races)

Gary and Josh Moore visor; King’s Reign, 1.20pm;  0-7 (since 2024); Gary on his own 19-143 (since 2009)

Clive Cox, cheekpieces; Kerdos, 3.05pm; 14-99 (2016)

Charlie Johnston, blinkers; Burj Zabeel, 4.55pm;  5-32 (2023)

PACE MAPS (ITV races)

1.20pm (Flag start): Tashkhan (prom), Align The Stars (prom), Aggagio (prom)

1.55pm: Seagulls Eleven (drawn 2) – Opera Ballo and Spectacular View NRs, so win-only betting now (Godolphin have already also pulled the favourite in 4.20pm, Rising Power)

2.30pm: Skukuza (17), Whitcombe Rockstar (prom – 4), , Afentiko? (22) (Treasure Time and first reserve Longlai are NRs allowing second reserve Dutch Decoy to run – also out are Mirsky, Arisaig, Great Chieftain and Two Tempting)

3.05pm: Clarendon House (prom – 14), Jm Jungle (prom – 1), Manaccan (prom), Night Raider (9), Spartan Arrow (11), Time For Sandals (prom – 7), Asfoora (prom – 6), Frost At Dawn (2), She’s Quality (8) – Celandine is a NR

3.45pm: Fox Legacy (prom – 9), Socialite (1)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; all races)

Good: Hugo Palmer (keeps churning out decent priced winners), William Haggas (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Roger Varian, Charlie Appleby, James Owen, Ed Dunlop, Brian Ellison, Hughie Morrison, Ian Williams ( four recent winners at prices), George Baker, Julie Camacho, William Knight, Jack Davison, Karl Burke, Simon and Ed Crisford, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Ralph Beckett, Eve Johnson Houghton

Fair: Richard Hughes (was in danger of being reduced to moderate before Thursday success), Ed Walker, Andrew Balding, Richard Hannon, Clive Cox, Charlie Johnston, Michael Bell, David O’Meara, Newland and Insole, Mick Appleby, Robert Cowell (needs winners), Brian Meehan (broke a losing spell on Wednesday), John and Sean Quinn, Archie Watson, Oliver Cole, James Ferguson, Jonathan Portman, Charles Hills, Gordon Elliott, Harry Charlton, Jonathan Portman, Muir and Grassick, Henry de Bromhead, David Simcock, David Menuisier, Harry Eustace (18-1 winner on Thursday)

Moderate: Sean Woods (some have run well enough in defeat), Keiran Burke, Gary and Josh Moore (some running well but needs winners)

Not sure: Hamad Al Jehani, David Pipe, Henry Dwyer