TONY CALVIN: FRIDAY’s statistics and information for the ITV races – and copy now, too

1.50pm Newbury – King Of Kingsfield too big at 33s and 28s perhaps

As far as novices’ chases go, this is a decent Grade 2, with fair cases easily made for all six at their respective prices (as at 2.15pm, Wednesday).

The 33s poke King Of Kingsfield may be the highest-rated horse in here, but he ran so poorly at Cheltenham last time that he was initially the hardest one to warm to, especially under a 5lb penalty.

But the odds told you that.

Perhaps the more modest tempo of this 2m4f test will help him and that wasn’t his first Cheltenham disappointment (he has never really run a race in three starts there and he seemed to lose all interest after what looked a minor, innocuous mistake over 2m there last month).

And his earlier chase starts were all decent, most notably his third to subsequent Grade 2 winner Westport Cove and Special Cadeau (a good third off 142 at Ascot next time) perhaps, a race in which he was giving them 4lb.

And defying a 7lb penalty in a Punchestown Grade 3 over 2m2f+ on his penultimate start wasn’t too shoddy either.

All of these have chasing experience, with the exception of perhaps the most interesting prospect of them all, Regent’s Stroll.

Now, it is not all doom and gloom at Ditcheat – they have exciting prospects like No Drama This End – but they are holding out for a hero and they will hope Regent’s Stroll is the one.

They paid 660k for him at Chris Giles’ dispersal sale in July 2024 (having paid 175k for him in May 2022) and the dual course winner best advertised his class and potential when narrowly denied in the 2m4f Aintree Grade 1 novice in April.

How he takes to fences is anyone’s guess, as he doesn’t have any point-to-point experience like main market rival Wendigo – Wendigo is best at [15/8], with the Nicholls horse at [2/1] – and successful pointers like King Of Kingsfield, Kingston Pride and No Questions Asked.

I’m happy to watch this race without a bet but the 33s and 28s King Of Kingsfield is definitely on the big side.

There is only one bit of 33s available as this goes live, so 28s and 25s are more representative odds, but this isn’t a race for me.

As of Thursday morning, there is still a bit of 25s knocking about.

2.25pm Newbury – American Mike 7/2 on debut for Olly Murphy

I’ll be coming back to all of Friday’s ITV races early on Thursday morning (I am doing that now) before I have to head out of the door on personal stuff, which is why I am having an early look at those contests now.

Clearly, a disappointing turn-out of seven for this 55k 2m4f handicap, but it is a competitive race all the same.

It will be very interesting to see which way American Mike goes in the market on his debut for Olly Murphy. He is currently best at [7/2] at the top of the market.

A chase mark of 147 wouldn’t appear to be overly-generous on his recent exploits (or, indeed the above odds, which I would have thought must lengthen but it is impossible to be bullish about market moves these days), but this was one well-regarded horse when trained by Gordon Elliott, when his 2024 novice chase form included a defeat over Nick Rockett in a 3m Grade 2 at Navan in February 2024.

It is now up to Murphy, a former assistant to Elliott, to rekindle that Grade 1 spark the 8yo showed in his younger years, when he was also second in the 2022 Cheltenham bumper.

The [11/2] about the race-fit Heltenham looks fair enough.

The three-time course and distance winner  is down to a mark of just 136 now (just 2lb higher than when winning by 13 lengths off a 2lb lower mark five starts ago), and I imagine Dan Skelton has primed him for this 55k pot.

The wind surgery he has had since a Wetherby third on November 15 must have been a minor enough tweak, but it’ll all help if the stewards come-a-calling about the improvement in form if he sluices in….

Marvel De Cerisy is a NR at 10.16am (abscess).

2.40pm Southwell – Shader shades it at 5/6

This race is now down to four runners with outsider Universal Story a NR at 10.24am (bad scope), so no each-way betting.

The 7yo Dubai Honour certainly puts in the hard yards.

The three-time Group/Grade 1 winner’s last seven starts have seen him go from Newcastle (the UK version) to Sha Tin, to Rosehill to Randwick in Australia, back to Hong Kong, and then fly “home” to Europe for jaunts at Baden-Baden and Longchamp.

He must be an incredibly hardy soul as he keeps his form incredibly well, so he must be greatly respected here, even under a 7lb penalty.

This is his first outing at Southwell though, so that is something to possibly factor in, as is the fact he meets less exposed 3yo and 4yos.

Juddmonte’s course winner Shader, a lightly-raced, impressive scorer at Kempton earlier in the month (beat a 109-rated horse 9 lengths off levels), and Royal Playwright, perhaps the pace angle in here, are his main, obvious rivals.

And Shader is the most dangerous opponent by far, given his profile, potential and pedigree. And that Kempton win last time was very impressive.

Marco Botti threw his Palazzo Blu, two from two at this track, in here pretty late on, on Wednesday morning. With £2,680 for fourth, with the 70-rated Universal Story heavy odds-on for fifth (well done to Jennie Candlish for getting at least £1,345 for her owner), that makes total sense.

The first firm up on Wednesday morning made Shader their [5/6] favourite, with Dubai Honour at [6/4], with Royal Playwright a [17/2] poke.

There is now evens available about him, and I’d agree with Shader shading favouritism.

3pm Newbury – 5/2 Impose Toi stands out to me here

I’d be very keen on Impose Toi putting these to bed, and [5/2] is not a bad price at all.

And I wouldn’t be laying him at 20s for the Stayers’ Hurdle, either.

I’ll outline a brief case for him here.

A winner at this meeting last season off a mark of just 134, he progressed throughout the rest of the campaign, but he took it up another level in a Pertemps qualifier on his return at Aintree, his first start at this 3m trip.

Sure, that race was blighted by omitted hurdles due to the low sun, but the manner in which he travelled through that race, and scored with such ease (and he was well supported, too), strongly hinted that we were looking at a much-improved, possibly Grade 1 level, staying model.

He is only seven, after all.

I’d be disappointed if he isn’t going very close at the very least here, and winning in truth. I’d fancy him off levels to beat main market rival Strong Leader, let alone getting 6lb.

I’ll have a decent bet if I can get the [5/2] available in two places, though I may have to settle for [9/4].

And [9/4] is what you will have to settle for now, with the [5/2] having been taken on Wednesday.

3.15pm Southwell – Marshman the early 7/4 favourite

Just one shy of a maximum field for this 50k 6f Listed contest, so it is one competitive race, with eight of the 13 rated in the 100s.

And Lou Lou’s Gift and Circe are also right in the equation with their 5lb fillies’ allowance.

This time last year, Night Raider got on the near rail from stall 10 and never came back, and Marshman has to be a massive player from a similar trap here in 12 of 13. He is not a point-and-shoot merchant like Night Raider but they will look to sit handy on him.

We haven’t seen him since an underwhelming run at York in May, so he must have had his problems (he also had curtailed campaigns in 2023 and 2024, so he may not be the soundest), but he is a tasty all-weather performer and the form of the Karl Burke yard (not many runners, granted) is a positive.

He was beaten in his sole start here over 5f in February, but his ½-length second to a consenting Clarendon House that day – he was giving the winner 3lb, with the very smart Valiant Force 1 ½ lengths away in third – was up there with his better efforts. And this 6f is probably more his trip.

The level of opposition is strong though in terms of a Listed race, and the absence is an obvious worry, but he does have a superb record when fresh, with reappearance form figures of 1121, with the sole defeat a neck second to Montassib at Doncaster in 2024.

He is definitely the one to beat but the first firm up on Wednesday made him just [13/8], which looked plenty short enough.

More generosity may await….but maybe not.

Hang on, there is a bit of [7/4].

Still not big enough for me, though it will surprise no-one if he takes care of this lot.

3.35pm Newbury – Is Blue Carpet a magic bet at 3s?

This is one race I am going to do more work on later as several in here have chances at their odds, and a fair few are unexposed.

As is usually the case, Dan Skelton provides the early favourite in this 3m handicap hurdle, with his Blue Carpet ranging from [9/4] to [3/1].

This race could have a lot more depth than those prices suggest, though.

The 8yo Punctuation certainly does not have the sexy profile of a few of these but the course winner can be competitive off a mark of 130, with perhaps the step up to 3m for the first time a big positive.

He was a dual 2m winner on the level  and the 16s about him looked okay (ish).

FRIDAY’S DETAILS

NEWBURY

HURDLE TRACK: Soft, good to soft in places (4.1 going stick reading; Friday 6am) (59% soil moisture)

CHASE TRACK: Good to Soft (4.4; Friday 6am) (54% soil moisture).

Rails: HURDLES: Centre/ Outside. FENCES: outside. Split bends in place

Friday morning course update: 0.6mm of drizzle yesterday evening (72.6mm of rain since our opening fixture). Forecast: Sunny spells with the chance of a shower in the afternoon from 2pm (1-2mm).

Weather: Possible showers Friday (not great amounts at this stage)

Rails

• 12:15pm: Race distance is now +83y to 2m 152y

• 12:45pm: Race distance is now +65y to 2m 157y

• 1:15pm: Race distance is now +83y to 2m 152y

• 1:50pm: Race distance is now +80y to 2m 4f 47y

• 2:25pm: Race distance is now +80y to 2m 4f 47y

• 3:00pm: Race distance is now +132y to 3m 189y

• 3:35pm: Race distance is now +132y to 3m 189y

SOUTHWELL

Going: Standard (The track has been cultivated to 3″ with a Gallop-master finish)

Friday morning course update: Friday, dry during the morning, cloudy with showers later (3-5mm)

Stalls: 5 furlong, centre; Remainder, inner.

Weather (latest yr.no forecast): showers

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS (ITV races)

None

PACE MAPS (ITV races; manually assessed)

1.50pm Newbury: No Questions Asked, Regent’s Stroll, Wendigo

2.25pm Newbury: Telepathique, Twinjets, Filanderer

2.40pm Southwell: Royal Playwright (drawn 3)

3pm Newbury: Ahoy Senor?, Botox Has?, Hewick

3.15pm Southwell: Apollo One (1), Dash Dizzy (8), Equality (7), Habooba (2)

3.35pm Newbury: I’m A Lumberjack?

TRAINERFORM (ITV races; manually assessed; flat trainers have relatively small samples)

Good: Joe Tizzard (excellent), William Haggas, Karl Burke, Gordon Elliott, Ben Pauling, Jamie Snowden, Lucy Wadham (small sample), Nicky Henderson, Russell and Scudamore, Hobbs and White, John and Thady Gosden

Fair: Marco Botti, Andrew Balding, Charlie Johnston (12-1 and 9-2 winners on Thursday), Mick Appleby, Ralph Beckett, Ivan Furtado, Anthony Honeyball, Olly Murphy (borderline good), Dan Skelton, Alan King, Christian Williams, Paul Nicholls (double on Thursday)

Moderate: Jennie Candlish (12-1 winner on Wednesday, though), Richard Hannon (15-2 winner on Wednesday, though),  Hughie Morrison, Gary and Josh Moore (8-11 winner on Thursday), Shark Hanlon, Emma Lavelle (recent hints of recovery), Robert Walford

Don’t know: Charalambous and Clutterbuck, Tom Clover, T J Kent (5-1 winner on Wednesday), Conrad Allen, Charles Hills