TONY CALVIN: RACE-BY-RACE analysis of eight races at Newmarket and Goodwood

THE GOING AND WATERING – updated 6.57am Friday

We can debate the rights and wrongs of it all day long (although no-one could seriously argue they should have done nothing given this weather), but Newmarket and Goodwood are doing their best to attract the maximum field sizes possible by watering heavily.

Newmarket were always going to put plenty down ahead of a three-day meeting, so they watered to the tune of 10mm on Monday and followed up with a whopping 15mm on Wednesday. None more is due – at the moment.

The ground remains good as of Friday morning.

Goodwood put 5mm on the straight course on Tuesday, and 8mm on the round course on Wednesday. They put another 8mm on the straight course on Thursday.

The ground is still currently good there.

Even with all the watering, we were still looking at single-digit fields in the initial ITV races, with the exception of the fillies’ race at Goodwood , which has 10 runners (though we have another 10-runner affair now ITV have switched races at Newmarket).

Not an ideal betting scenario.

1.45pm Newmarket – Not on ITV now, but I looked at it anyway

We had 10 in here at the five-day stage and we are down to six, with Aurel, Devil’s Advocate and Harvey coming in very late.

Thankfully they did, as a three-runner race would have not been what the doctor (or Alan Delmonte) ordered.

It really was a late, late show with Devil’s Advocate as John and Thady Gosden had already confirmed Ernst Blofeld and Nebras much earlier on Wednesday morning, and he in fact has probably achieved most of the Gozza trio courtesy of his Chelmsford win last season.

Presumably he has come out of his disappointing sixth of seven in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom last week  – where he was sent off the [6/4] favourite – well enough to have another go here.

There is no jockey on him as at 10.52am on Wednesday (Kieran O’Neill was finally booked).

This race has been bumped off ITV but I don’t have a strong opinion anyway – well, that is obvious as I haven’t seen any prices yet.

When they appear, I may have.

Doubtful, mind you, given the make-up of the race – very little to split the six, who are all relatively unexposed – but you never know.

The prices are now coming through, with Alpine Trail and Harvey top and tailing the market at [5/2] and [18/1] respectively.

I’ve no opinion, so let’s move on.

I wouldn’t lay the 18s Harvey, though (now 16s). Alpine Trail has been trimmed into [9/4].

Devil’s Advocate is a NR with a temperature as at 11.46am on Thursday.

2.20pm Newmarket – Marginally prefer to have the field running for me than the favourite

A good move by someone to get this on the box – it’s as strong a Listed race as you will see – as you get the distinct impression that Harry Charlton wouldn’t have minded sending Cosmic Year to the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday instead of coming here (and his horse did trade in single figures for the Classic after his Kempton novice win last month).

But, with his services surplus to requirements with the owners also having Field Of Gold for the 2,000 (and maybe Jonquil, too), we get to see him in Listed company instead.

The first firm up on Wednesday made him a [5/6] chance, which was pretty much to be expected given his potential and his reputation.

He is now evens, the early Thursday morning [11/10] in two places being taken.

However, this is nowhere near a gimme against a range of horses with similar form claims (he is rated only 100).

The highest-rated in here on 109, The Waco Kid, has a 5lb penalty and was a little underwhelming in the Craven, but he is still the pick of the official figures alongside Diego Ventura, Pellitory and Symbol Of Honour at these weights.

It’s not my type of race, especially one that appears to lack a stand-out on the clock (though the sectional boys apparently lurve the favourite), but I’d probably prefer to have the field running for me at around evens rather than backing Cosmic Year, for all he clearly could be a premier weapon.

It’s not a bet that I am desperate to pursue though, albeit the fact I can see six or seven in with a chance makes the lay angle the best betting route into this perhaps.

Don’t, don’t, don’t believe the hype.

Maybe.

2.35pm Goodwood – Tatterstall could be the pace angle

This 5f handicap could have held a maximum of 20, but the 13 at the five-day has been whittled down to eight.

Big Mojo stopped the Mick Appleby rot when winning at Ascot on Wednesday – he was on a losing run of 30-odd – and he has the [11/4] favourite Shagraan in here.

He looks solid enough as a course winner who ran well first time out last season, but [11/4] (and the general [5/2]) looks cramped enough.

I have 7s chance Tatterstall down as the most likely leader, and he too is fully effective on a downhill track (has won here and at Epsom) , but we are guessing as to his state of readiness, as we are with the favourite.

The rest all have had a recent run.

I could see Existent going well, especially with his yard coming into a bit of form (see below), but the fact that he is 3lb wrong here is hardly an advert for his chance.

2.55pm Newmarket – Brave Mission the sexiest on show

Brave Mission is a NR at 6.27am on Friday, having woken up with a rash.

We’ve all been there.

This race could take a maximum of 25 (there were 18 at the five-day stage) but the 40k 1m handicap has attracted just nine runners.

The small turnout doesn’t make this a whole lot easier to solve though; indeed, all of the ITV races at Newmarket are very tricky in their own way.

I am not surprised to see William Buick on Spectacular View here, as it was only a late decision by Charlie Appleby to throw Wild Nature into the mix as well (was confirmed very late).

Make of that what you will but, sadly, I do find decs-tracking fascinating.

I’ll look to get a life in the near future, I promise.

Five of these 3yos are making their seasonal reappearances, which further muddies the waters, so I was not surprised that the first two firms up made this as a very tight race, going 4s the field, bringing in Brave Mission (has the pedigree to be better than his current rating of 91, and probably has the sexiest profile on show here as a result) and the aforementioned Spectacular View.

Spectacular View was winning the battle for favouritism at [7/2] on Thursday morning though, with Brave Mission [9/2] in a place.

Guesswork is firmly at play in this, but if Molveno could reproduce the best of his all-weather form to turf then he could be a fair-ish price at 25s (20s available to some, paying four places), with fitness assured.

However, he clearly lacks the upside of others in here and the form of the Marco Botti yard is hardly peachy (though a bit better than his winless run would suggest, and he had a welcome winner on Wednesday ), so I can leave this well alone.

3.10pm Goodwood – Scenic is the clear form pick but how straight is she?

This is one race that has held up well. Thirteen (Meribella was scratched yesterday) has become 10, and the betting is very competitive, with [9/2] the field if shopping around (providing you are allowed to shop, which is sadly not a given these days – or in times past too lest we forget, as restrictions are not a new invention).

Any of these 10 fillies and mares (we only have one 5yo, Loughville, in the field) could step forward to take a hand, and nine of these make their reappearances.

In fact, 16s chance Loughville is the only one to have had a recent run, and a good one at that too, being just touched off in the Queen’s Cup handicap at Musselburgh.

But she is rated just 91, and that is a stone shy of Scenic.

Scenic’s win in the Galtres Stakes at York is by far the best piece of form on offer going into this race, and the [9/2] about her is big if we knew she was straight for her comeback.

We don’t of course, and trainer Ed Walker’s Weekender column gives a hint that this could be a stepping stone to the Group 3 Bronte Cup over 1m6f at York later this month.

A very tricky race to bet in.

3.30pm Newmarket – 7/1 Physique could make all here – if connections let him

Another race with a maximum field of 25, but just 12 at the five-day stage and now a mere seven. That is rather worrying for a 50k 7f handicap.

Anyway, the first thing that struck me about this race was the lack of pace.

I would expect Fifty Nifty, whose price ranges from [6/5] to [13/8]  – the [15/8] was taken on Wednesday in the usual price-trimming at the 48-hour stage – to be up there but there isn’t an habitual forward-goer in here and perhaps Pam Sly will let Physique crack on from the front.

That is how they rode him when he was trained in Ireland last season (and when the Coles had him in 2023), and logic suggests they should revert to those tactics in this small field after an eyecatcher at Donny on his debut for Pam Sly and going a bit too free here last time when disappointing as the [9/2] favourite in much stronger handicap than ths.

Actually, having had another look at the Newmarket run over 6f last time, Oisin Murphy looked to be at his weakest that day.

Down 2lb and up to a trip over which he has recorded his best efforts, Physique looks the best bet in here at 7s (15/2 in a place). He is available an attractive 7s, three places.

Let’s just hope they let him stride on.

I’ve just clocked that this race is called the “Nifty 50” handicap, so it’s an odd coincidence that Fifty Nifty is the jolly in here after a good comeback second here last month.

Odd but of completely no bearing on his obvious chance (and it is pretty lame to even mention it), so I’ll shut up.

I’d probably prefer Alzahir, from the in-form Jennie Candlish yard, of the rest at 7s, as he is at least fit and in good fettle.

Tarkhan is a NR as at 9.20am, but five firms are still paying three places in this six-runner race.

3.45pm Goodwood – Can leave Waleefy to win at 2/1

This 6f handicap could have held a maximum of 20 but the 17 at the five-day stage has become seven.

Waleefy has missed a couple of recent engagements (one through coughing at Musselburgh a fortnight ago) but he is the [2/1] favourite in here.

As a half-brother to the likes of Baaeed and Hukum, the 4yo has the most upside of these and could dance in, but I have no interest in having a bet.

And there is a chance that this quick 6f may not be his optimum.

4.05pm Newmarket – Late market could identify the front-runner

We had six in here at the five-day stage, but William Haggas decided not to confirm his pair, Space Legend and Caviar Heights.

The pace angle in here is confusing (see below).

The late market could tell all here – particularly if it flags the likely leader…. – but I don’t have much beef with the current odds on offer, which put Silver Knott in as the [6/4] favourite over 2s poke Ambiente Friendly, very disappointing on his return over 1m1f here last month.

At least the latter, placed in the English and Irish Derbys, is upped to a more suitable trip here but that run in the Earl Of Sefton was underwhelming.

FRIDAY’s ITV COURSE DETAILS

NEWMARKET – updated 6.59am Friday

Going: Good

Going stick: 7.1 Friday 6am

Friday  morning course update/weather: 1.5mm of rain since the Craven Meeting. Forecast: More cloud and feeling cooler (18c.)

Watering: 15mm applied on Thursday / Friday and 10mm applied on Monday. Further 15mm applied on Wednesday.

Forecast: Dry and warm (19 degrees)

Rails: Stands Side Course in use

Stalls: Centre

GOODWOOD – updated 7.52am Friday

Going: Good

Going stick: 7.2, Friday 7.35am

Friday morning course update/Weather: 15mm rain on Wednesday morning. Today looks sunny and a little cooler. Saturday now looks dry, cooler and more overcast.

Watering: Applied 5mm irrigation to the straight on Tuesday. Applied 8mm to the Round Course Wednesday Applied 8mm to the straight Thursday

Rails: All races to be run on inner lines

Stalls:5f & 6f Stands Side 1m3f & 1m4f Outside Rest Inside

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

Ralph Beckett hood -6-54 since 2011 –  Aurel, 2.20pm Newmarket

Andrew Balding cheekpieces 13-102 (2016) –   Bellum Justum, 4.10pm Newmarket

PACE MAPS (manually done)

1.45pm Newmarket (very little evidence): Alpine Trail, Ernst Blofeld, Harvey (prom)

2.20pm Newmarket: The Waco Kid, Big Cyril, Chancellor, Marvel Man, Port Light

2.35pm Goodwood: Tatterstall, , Holkham Bay (prom), Rosario (prom)

2.55pm Newmarket: Wild Nature, Hornsea Bay (prom), Spectacular View (prom), Molveno, Big Sip, Fort George

3.10pm Goodwood: Allonsy, Molten Rock (prom), Our Golden One (prom), Panthera (prom), Shaha, Scenic?

3.30pm Newmarket (no obvious pace): Physique?, Fifty Nifty (prom)

3.45pm Goodwood: Knebworth (prom), Spring Bloom?, Count Otto

4.05pm Newmarket (all four are possibles): Silver Knott, Ambiente Friendly? (doubtful), Bellum Justum?, Divina Grace

TRAINERFORM (manually done)

Good: John and Thady Gosden, William Haggas, Amanda Perrett, Jennie Candlish, Roger Teal, David Menuisier, Richard Hughes, George Baker (very good), Harry Charlton (very good),  Harry Eustace , Archie Watson (very good), Hugo Palmer (winners on Wednesday and Thursday), Charlie Appleby

Fair:  Ralph Beckett, Karl Burke, David O’Meara (10-1 winner on Thursday), Richard Hannon (edging towards moderate), George Boughey, Marco Botti (winner on Wednesday), James Owen, Andrew Balding, Ed Walker, Jamie Osborne, Tom Clover, Robert Cowell (probably good), William Knight (winner on Wednesday), Michael Dods (7-1 winner on Thursday), Jack Channon, Stuart Williams (double on Wednesday), Alan King (two winners on Thursday), Tom Ward (arguably good),  Alice Haynes, Mick Appleby (0-31 in April going into Wednesday’s racing, despite plenty running okay – so Big Mojo was a big winner for him in more ways than one on Wednesday)

Moderate: Peter Chapple-Hyam (very small sample, so maybe harsh), Eve Johnson Houghton (much-needed winner at Goodwood on Friday, with a 2yo debutant) , Brian Meehan

Don’t know:  Pam Sly (only four runners, but probably fair), Robert Eddery, Hamad Al Jehani