By Tony Calvin - 13 May 2026
Now, this is exactly the kind of race that I avoid like the plague.
The fact that there are only seven in here isn’t even one of the reasons, as one more runner and each-way 1,2,3 betting wouldn’t make it any more attractive.
It is just a race in which any of the seven can win, which is why their prices range 3s to 16s (at best prices, that is – one firm’s range is 3 to 10s).
I am sure this will be a good race for the paddock specialists to dissect beforehand given the lightly-raced nature and scope of the fillies involved – we have four unbeaten horses in here, none of whom have raced more than twice – and it is all about potential.
I suppose the Breeders’ Cup runner-up Pacific Mission is an okay price at [7/2] given we know she is the best filly going into the race form-wise and on the clock, but she doesn’t set too lofty a bar.
That said, she is rated 109 and that’s a fair marker. But this is wide-open and all about potential.
I hope it is sunny in the lead-up to the race, or else they will be all be dull in their coat, and then we will really have no idea of what is going to win…
Little change as at 5.50am. So Regal is the current 3s favourite, but it is a very tightly-packed market with Synchronicity around the same price.
Max Mayhem is a NR as at 1.42pm on Thursday (off colour).
They are selectively watering at Newbury on Thursday, despite rain being expected (see below).
The away-day fixtures on ITV this week have tended to get lost in the mix, but this is a decent 0-95 1m2f handicap at Newbury.
It lacks a stand-out, but I can see why Hand Of God edges the early betting at 4s after a good reappearance seventh in the Lincoln and he got dropped a further 1lb for it.
He looked destined for Group races after winning the Golden Gates at Royal Ascot in 2024 but the wheels came off that idea came off in three starts in 2025. However, if he can build on that Donny return run then he is handicapped to play a leading role off 96 here (he was 102 after that Ascot win).
He is still very lightly-raced too, with just nine runs under the bonnet.
However, there are no shortage of credible opponents in here, with some improving 4yos ranged against him – Celeborn, taken out of Chester last week, could be the best of them at [5/1] – but it lacks a compelling candidate to my eye, so this is an easy race to watch without a bet.
If indeed, you don’t have something else to do between York races…
Not a great deal changed in the betting as of 5.50am on Friday. Hand Of God weak at moment so expect him to drift from 9/2.
All change by 8am, as High Degree is [9/4], having been [9/2] and 5s on Thursday.
Divine Knight is a NR as at 10.57am on Thursday. That one ranged from 9s to 12, so they’ll be a Rule 4 for early punters.
One more NR and this becomes a 15-runner handicap and 1,2,3 in traditional each way terms will apply in a few places.
Bad news – Empire Of Light is a NR as at 7.36am (going) – so we are down to just 15 runners.
Warrant Holder and Tony Montana look surprisingly short, even at best prices of [3/1] and [11/2], and Thunder Run is also only available at the latter price in three places.
If I was a bookmaker, I’d look to get them all in the can and take my chances that one of the other 13 chins (think that describes me) them all.
To be honest, I wouldn’t be a fan of the Fahey stable at all , as I think they are a “throwing spaghetti at the wall” operation but hopefully this has been a long term plan for Castle Stuart.
It certainly looked like it at Doncaster last time.
The 22s and 20s about him went just before this race preview went live around 2pm, but the 18s, 16s and general 14s still look very acceptable for each-way punters.
Basically, the horse was given a very tender ride at Doncaster first time out, and Harry Russell didn’t really get after him at any stage.
Go and have a look at the ride/replay.
I went and looked at the BHA site – and he wasn’t even mentioned in the stewards’ report.
He still stuck on eye-catchingly into sixth, under minimal assistance, and I was very surprised the handicapper dropped him 1lb for it.
In those circumstances, they tend to leave them alone – especially as that 0-95 form has worked out very well.
The first two haven’t been out since but the third and fourth finished second last time out, the fifth won next time (Have Secret, who runs here) and the seventh won on his following start, too.
Only 1lb lower here then, but every little helps in handicaps like these.
The ground-versatile horse (has form on soft and good to firm) was beaten two necks in a course and distance handicap here last August under today’s jockey Barry McHugh – off a 2lb higher mark, coming home strongly on the near rail and looking a slightly unfortunate loser – and he rates a pretty good each-way bet at the prices above.
To be fair to Russell and McHugh, he could be a tricky ride and the horse could be a touch soft (which is why I want to get with him each way), but back him at the best win and place terms your accounts allow at any of the prices above (the 18s in one spot is five places, as is one of the 16s).
I’ve had a decent each-way go on him.
16s, five places, is still available as at 7pm on Thursday.
As at 5,52am, Tony Montana is strongest at the market at the moment and the 9/2 in a place about him may not last. Warrant Holder may drift from the general 11/4 (10/3 in a place) but little money would have changed here.
My each-way fancy Castle Stuart is 12s in one place and as low as 9s. Very early days.
This is a 2yo version of the 2.20pm. And a more extreme one at that.
Nine of the 10 in here are winners, none of whom have raced more than three times, and the newcomer , Angels Passing, a 130,000 euros No Nay Never yearling , has probably shat in one of those barrier trials that all bar a select few know about…
In these circumstances many are guided by the clock and that would lead to Lover Girl, an impressive winner of both her starts and a [7/2] chance.
The very early market favours Princess d’Orange at [5/2] at this stage and admittedly she did look very tasty when winning at Beverley.
But this is very a much a guessing game – to my untrained eye, admittedly.
Very little change in the overnight market, if any.
Now, this is very much a race that would have benefitted from an extra runner and each way 1,2,3 betting.
That said, it is a tricky enough race to whittle down as it is, not helped by the lack of any guaranteed/obvious pace in here (from what I can see anyway). Tarriance made it once again last time but all his better efforts so far have come with more patient tactics.
I am a little surprised to see Amiloc so short in the betting at [13/8] but I suppose he just about brings the best form to the party here. Those odds are too skinny, surely.
That said, main form rival Rahiebb is second favourite at [7/2] and the Leger runner-up was very weak in the betting before being pulled out of the (Julia) Ormonde Stakes at Chester last week – I know she doesn’t have an “e” in her name but I am trying to amuse myself here with these race names – although this is an easier assignment.
Furthur at [13/2] could be the percentage call.
Around a couple of lengths or so off the form duo from a talent perspective, he won first time out last season, albeit in a maiden, and he landed a punt when beating Epic Poet by 3 lengths in the Geoffrey Freer at Newbury in August.
He has been gelded since he ran in the Melbourne Cup and hopefully they will have primed him for this winnable Group 2 off a break. That’s a guess though, as the trainer tends to remain pretty quiet-lipped with written press interviews.
The [13/2] looks okay, if not exactly a price that would have me putting on my shoes and walking to a betting shop, and he does have a decidedly in-and-out profile so far – which is why they took his nuts off, I guess.
A bit of ease should be fine for him.
As at 5.56am, Amiloc is very soild at [6/4] and heading towards 11/8 – now [6/5] best at 8am.
Rahiebb is strong enough too, and the 3s about him in a place could be coming under pressure this morning.
But even a market such as this has done just over 10k on Betfair – there is no liquidity to take overnight any more.
Pretty sad – and very sad for those without access to any fixed-odds accounts.
Believeinmenow is a NR as at 10.14am (going – though some of his best efforts have come on good. He is in at Doncaster on Saturday….).
My day will rise or fall on Castle Stuart at least being in the first four or five in the 2,55pm, as this 19-runner 5f handicap isn’t really doing it for me.
If pushed , Kinnalargy maybe looks the best bet at his current odds of 14s and 12s.
Whether or not his draw in one is the place to be, I am not sure – we are all guessing in truth – but this lightly-raced gelding (the cajones have come off) rounded off last term with a good fourth over 6f at Doncaster and I like to think the step back to 5f here will suit this speedster who goes from the front.
That Donny form has worked out very well, too.
But it is the most token of advice, so feel free to ignore.
I probably will ignore it myself…
No movement of note that I can see as at 6am. Sure, Desert Treasure has been shortened from 5s everywhere and is as low as 3s, but is still 9/2 in a place and 5.6 on Betfair in a market that hasn’t done 7 bags.
Kinnalargy is now [17/2] best as at 8am.
Castle Stuart each-way at 18s or 16s (or 14s) in 2.55pm at York (get the best place terms you can at those odds)
GOING: Good
Good (slow) Whole course verti drained
Going Stick: 6.0, Friday 8.25am
Readings in Home Straight; Far Side – 5.7; Centre – 5.8; Stands Side 5.9
Wind speed and direction at 1.45pm NNW 10mph gusting to 22mph
Moisture Meter 38%
Friday course update: Dry overnight and a dry, bright and fresh Friday morning. 1.8mm rain Thursday making 23.2mm rain in May. Met Office forecast; Friday – dry with some bright or sunny spells and feeling cool in a fresh NW breeze, 13 degrees Live links to the Met Office and our Weather Station are available at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk Home Page, click through for full Going report.
Yr.no latest (5.36am Friday): Dry and sunny but chilly, 11 degrees
GOING: Good
Soil moisture average = 42.5% (updated 15th May).
Friday course update: Only 0.4mm in a shower yesterday. We lost 2.1mm of evaporation (ET) yesterday (14C). Forecast: Sunny start, patchy cloud (14C), gentle breeze. Chance of under 1mm this afternoon
Watering: w/c 20th April = 10mm. w/c 27th April = 15mm. 15mm cycle Tuesday 5th / Wednesday 6th. 15mm cycle Thursday 7th/ Friday 8th. 8-12mm cycle Monday. Selectively watered the pull up (only) Wednesday (5mm). Selectively watered 4mm yesterday afternoon. No planned watering after racing Friday.
Yr.no latest (5.36am Friday): 1.5mm Friday
2.20pm York: Lilt (drawn 1)
2.40pm Newbury: Hand Of God? (3), High Degree (4), Alcarath (2), Al Durry (7), Clouds Hill (12) – Max Mayhem is a NR
2.55pm York: Have Secret (6), Castle Stuart (9)?, Cadarn (2), Double Parked (14), Altareq (17) – Divine Knight is a NR, as is Empire Of Light
3.30pm York (limited evidence): Armor Supreme (4), Lady Blanche (8), Lake Muritz (5), Lauralynn (7), Lover Girl (2), Margaret’s Pearl (3), Princess d’Orange (1)
4.05pm York: Tarriance? (7) (no obvious pace)
4.40pm York: Sir Alfie (19), Stargazed (16), Kinnalargy (1), She’s Got A Brother (10), Fortification (9), Schrodinger’s Cat (14), Entailed (2), Hanney Girl (17), Naana’s Shadow (7), Storm Esme (11), Von Trotter (3) – Believeinmenow is a NR
Good: William Haggas (in great form), John and Thady Gosden, Andrew Balding (continues to fly along), Ralph Beckett (4-1 and 7-2 winners on Monday – and an 18-1 scorer on Thursday), George Scott, George Boughey, Declan Carroll, Gemma Tutty, Roger Varian, George Baker, Lucy Wadham (two winners; five runners), Ollie Sangster (another winner at Bath on Wednesday night – going really well), Harry Eustace, Adrian Keatley (another winner on Wednesday)
Fair: Ed Walker, David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan (winner on Thursday), Richard and Peter Fahey, Karl Burke, Tim Easterby, Harry Charlton, Nigel Tinkler (12-1 and 9-2 winners on Tuesday – so good/fair), Kevin Philippart De Foy (fair/good), Lemos De Souza (two winners on Wednesday), Archie Watson, Katie Scott (fair/moderate), Michael Bell, Amanda Perrett (fair/moderate – no winners), Micky Hammond (fair/good), Alan King (a lot of near misses), Jim Goldie, Tom Clover (fair/moderate), Charlie Johnston (fair/good), Charles Hills
Moderate: Brian Ellison, Owen Burrows (so welcome 22-1 winner on Thursday – great training performance with that 10yo), Charlie Appleby (he must be getting a touch worried by now – but he has just had the first two winners on home turf at Newmarket on Friday ), Gary and Josh Moore, Craig Lidster, Michael and David Easterby (couple of near misses, as you’d expect from a big sample), Grant Tuer, Jessica Bedi (smallish sample and big-priced runners, though – and a decent third), Charlie Pike
Don’t know (small samples): Peter Chapple-Hyam, Simon Pearce (two recent runners have run very well), Diego Dias (one winner ; three runners)
On this week’s pod: Intro: Royal Ascot & World Cup (0-3mins) Quick Racing Review (3-4mins)…
2.30pm – Royal Ascot 2yo races – The Bonfire Of The Vanities? Your Song is…
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