By Tony Calvin - 21 October 2026
It makes sense to work on the basis of borderline heavy at both Friday ITV tracks.
Doncaster (currently soft, good to soft in places) is actually set for a dry Thursday after 6pm today (Wednesday) – they may have 5mm today perhaps – but the rain is set to return in the early hours of Friday.
Possibly 12mm; possibly less, possibly more.
As I said below, I am not really buying into Cheltenham’s current going description of good (as of 7am on Wednesday), even though that tallies with their going stick reading of 6.5.
But that reading moved from 7.0 to 6.7 after 8mm of rain of Monday, but only from 6.7 to 6.5 after 19mm on Tuesday.
And the ground moved from good, good to firm in places, to good after that 8mm.
But it stayed at good after the 19mm.
Surprising, even if the ground was probably very thirsty.
I just wonder whether the fact that they were still watering on Sunday (the last of their cycles – which had been 10-15mm), in the face of a pretty horrendous forecast, is a factor here?
They had another 7mm today as at 2pm, but that looks it for the day, thankfully.
Aintree were were still watering on Monday, quite unbelievably, as per the BHA site.
Indeed, these were their watering levels : “7mm being applied on Sat, 8-10mm Sun, 8-10mm Monday”.
Did no-one look at any of the available forecasts?
They had 12mm on Tuesday (the ground only eased from good, to good, good to soft in places, after that) – no going stick readings yet – and, looking at their forecast for the rest of the week, they could be looking at borderline heavy come the weekend too, if those are accurate.
They have had another 7.8mm on Wednesday as at 8pm.
Anyway, as at 12.15pm on Wednesday , Cheltenham have had another 7mm today, so that good ground description is now surely out of date.
I love live rain gauges, so I urge all tracks to get them….
By the way, Newbury have had nearly 6mm already today, on the back of their 20mm yesterday.
I’ll be surprised if they don’t start their Saturday ITV races on anything other than heavy.
Actually, cancel that 6mm. It is now 10mm as at 2pm on Wednesday.
They need the rain to stop and for the forecast for the rest of the week to be wrong for them not to be racing on a bog , I fear.
Especially on Day 2 on Saturday.
And, to be fair, the rain looks to have stopped for the day now.
Given the above I’d be treading very carefully, if betting.
And certainly so 48 hours out – and especially so in the formative stages of the NH season, where fitness of the many participants is unknown and the ground could bottom some.
My initial race summaries will be tentative stuff then – my thoughts will harden up on the morning of the race when we know the score as regards the ground, and certainly my own betting will.
I would advise punters to wait until the morning of race-day when we will hopefully have a clearer, and possibly more accurate, picture of the going – unless there is a stand-out price on a ground-versatile horse that you think is too tempting to pass up.
Connections have entered on officially good ground and it is entirely possibly that it will be anything but if Thursday and Friday’s forecast rain lands (the bulk of Friday’s rain is currently due from midnight to 3am), on top of what we have already had this week – 34mm so far from Monday onwards, as at 5.12pm on Wednesday.
We could have NRs then, and maybe more than one.
Crooked Path is 5lb well-in despite being 2lb out of the handicap, as the 7lb rise he was given for his Fontwell win last week has not kicked in yet. Whether he would want soft ground or worse I am not so sure (his profile is not clear in that regard) but the 10s in eight places (four of those offer four places for each-way punters) looks a fair risk-to-reward ratio as it stands.
James Owen has coaxed him back to form since getting him for 26 bags in the summer.
But this is a competitive 0-140 for a relatively modest TV pot of 25k and another 10s poke, Morning Mayhem, has very plausible claims along with a few others.
Let’s gather all the facts before slotting a selection.
If indeed there is one to be slotted once the prices have stabilised, as the Doncaster moves itemised below proved to be a wafer-thin joke.
As I said above, in my ground and watering mini-rant, I am working on the basis of soft/heavy here.
I know this ITV race is only worth 15k but Tim Easterby sensed free cash for his owners (and himself) when decs-tracking and his three entries were the last ones in, in this 6f nursery, with prize money down to fifth.
Fair play to him – especially as all of his three have proven, respectable form on soft ground. Unlike the down-in-class Big Cigar and Glamorize.
Of course , the other horse in the race, Bulletsnap, is the one that casts a huge shadow over this race – which is why he is he ranges from 4/5 to evens in the (very) early betting.
I have him down as the pace angle here, even though his five rivals all have been prominent racers, and he is definitely the sexy one after his made-all, wide-margin Ripon win on ground Timeform called good to firm last time.
Typical William Haggas MO, gaining experience for his horses at less-profile Northern venues rather than darn Sarf, though the handicapper did up him 9lb for it, anyway.
It was probably justified though, and an opening handicap mark of 87 doesn’t look overly-punitive. And he shaped very well on testing ground at Goodwood on his debut on soft.
He didn’t look the finished article last time – perhaps the track and the quick ground made him hang a bit – and he is the obvious favourite here.
Bulletsnap wouldn’t be for me at evens though and Easterby’s Mind Those Steps comfortably makes more betting appeal at 8s.
He has form on soft ground (notably when third at Ayr last month) and he ran a career-best when a 125/1 sixth in Redcar’s Two Year Old Trophy last time, on which a mark of 82 looks very fair.
His dam won in, and handled, testing ground very well, as did his talented half-sister, the 107-rated Twilight Spinner, so maybe these will prove to be his ideal conditions.
And, looking back at the Redcar run last time, he did well to finish as close as he did considering he was very badly hampered around 2f out.
The 6f and plenty of dig (he weakened very tamely after travelling well over 7f at Haydock two starts ago) looks a good combination for him.
The 8s and 15/2 look decent enough – and maybe the early 10/3 (in one place as most firms won’t have that line until Thursday evening/Friday morning) without Bulletsnap is fair as well.
It’s good to see they are still giving these novices’ chases a spin on the ITV schedule and hoping for bigger field sizes!
Good luck with that project , but thankfully Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have sent over a couple of runners to at least sweeten the 40k pot to each way 1.2 levels.
They are the form horses too, with Elliott’s Bowensonfire 5lb superior to Mullins’ Jarrive De Mee on official ratings, with the remainder with plenty to find, though the latter is available at a biggish 4s with two firms.
On all known form Dan Skelton’s 7/2 current second favourite Ice Jet wants minimal rain from hereon in , and Passing Diamond has a job on with his 8lb penalty, and the 14s outsider Glen To Glen has a patchy profile.
So Bowensonfire , third in the 2m4f handicap hurdle on this card last season and a decent enough third over fences at Gowran earlier in the month, looks a pretty fair 7/4 favourite as it stands, though that is only available in one spot.
He wouldn’t mind a lot more rain, especially over this 2m trip.
A 16-runner 6f handicap on worsening ground wouldn’t be my preferred horse racing betting medium – and one NR would obviously bollocks the traditional each-way terms here – but I’ll show willing and have a look.
The market is headed by last year’s winner Fine Interview at 5s, and it isn’t a surprise to see the other three horses put in at single-figure odds in the early are the in-form pair of Goldmoyne and Station X, and Toyotomi, who runs in a first-time visor (see below for the trainer’s stats) and has the ground coming firmly in his favour.
Three of those four are drawn 1,2,3 – and the other, Goldmoyne, is in 14.
So where do you want to be? The pace map below may suggests high rather than low, but Station X can make his own luck in 3.
A (loaded) gun to my head, and I’d say Rousing Encore is a decent enough price at 14s from his midfield draw in eighth.
The 14s is available with three firms as this goes live (but effectively the same outfit, so what happens here if one firm cuts the price, the other two normally follow suit).
Fourth off this mark in this race last year and a good third here the following month , he comes here in good nick (chinned on the line at Haydock last time and upped 2lb for his troubles) with conditions to suit.
You’d like to see his trainer Ruth Carr in better form, though.
The 14s didn’t last 10 minutes with any of the three firms above, ffs.
That was a waste of time, sorry.
This 2m conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle is a race I definitely want to revisit after at least one night’s sleep (possibly two), as I thought King Ulanda was interesting from an each-way perspective at 14s, four places – as long as the ground isn’t soft or worse.
Which I imagine it will be be, so he is probably a no-no.
A fair few of these would ideally want decent ground in fact, though The Hardest Geezer is not one of those.
His 2m soft ground form last season makes him a big player at 8s and 9s if that rain arrives in full; in fact, the current 9s surely can’t last about a horse who ran well first time up last term and who has form in better handicaps than this.
But we didn’t see him after he slipped up in the old Betfair Hurdle in February (strongly hinting at a problem) and I have never heard of Jack Stenhouse, who claims 8lb here (that’s my ignorance as he has had 77 rides and 7 winners; and 4 from 22 for the yard).
And the horse has no Cheltenham experience (the jockey just the one spin around here).
But on soft ground he has a good chance here in a winnable race (this race is just worth 20k, by the way).
A reproduction of any of his four runs last season, prior to the Newbury run, would see him be very competitive here.
I’ve seen bigger pots than 30k for a terrestrial 0-105 handicap, which may explain just 10 runners for a 7f race that could have housed 22.
It’s certainly a competitive race, though it is no surprise to see Palladas topping the betting at 9/4 (and as low as 15/8).
A twice-raced unbeaten colt, both victories coming on the all-weather, of Charlie Appleby’s, the world is his lobster, but will he sink to the depths in this new conditions?
See what I did there?
No, I didn’t either.
I think proven ability to act in the likely deep ground is equally as important than potential here though, perhaps more so, and we know the likes of 12s poke Zoum Zoum (a winner on this card in 2024 and in his element in testing conditions on this track) will love this test.
I’ll have a sleep on this but Invictus Gold looks an okay price at 7 and 13/2 (the latter price comes with four places attached with one firm, however briefly that combo may last – not long given the previous race experience).
Tom Clover may have a pants record with a first-time visor (which he puts on the horse here) but he has had a cracking season and Invictus Gold is already 3lb lower than an excellent second to Sondad (now rated 16lb higher) over 6f at Epsom on soft ground in June.
This is his first start at 7f , so his stamina will be tested to the hilt in the ground, but he certainly has his chance.
I am undecided about this race at the moment.
This could just be a furlong too far for Invictus Gold if heavy does enter the going description on Friday, and his recent efforts haven’t matched up to the Epsom run.
That 13/2, four places and 7s appear to have lasted five minutes.
Comedy.
Soft ground would put the ball firmly into Cooltobecareless’s court here – and it is not as if his trainer Dan Skelton needs any favours to smash one over the net, with just the 115 winners this season after a four-timer on Wednesday.
Unreal.
None of the others have shown any aptitude for soft ground (so far at least, as most have had no experience of it, to be fair) but this one has won his point on heavy (allegedly) and his bumper on soft, and he danced in on his hurdling debut at Chepstow on good to soft this season.
Winner of the last two renewals of this race, including with the same owner’s Valgrand in 2024, Skelton has an obvious chanceof making it a hat-trick with his 5yo at 9/4.
But, again, let’s see what that weather does. This race is full of similarly unexposed types, after all.
It is past 7pm on Wednesday and it is getting close to my bedtime (and I am not even joking – I am always awake by 4am latest), so this tricky 2m handicap chase can definitely wait until tomorrow.
Skelton’s Calico is going for a third straight win in the race, so there is little surprise that he is the early 7/2 favourite here, given he is already 6lb lower than for this Ascot win last November (just five starts ago, so I have no idea how the trainer does it) and you don’t need to me tell you he would have been pencilled in for this since early summer.
Over and out.
GOING : Soft, good to soft in places
Soil Moisture: 47.5%
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 5.6mm Monday 3.4mm Tuesday Wednesday, dry in the morning with rain moving in from lunchtime. This is due to clear by 8pm and then remain dry through the night. Thursday, dry and bright with some sunny spells. Friday, turning wet again and remaining like this through most of the day – mainly blustery showers. Saturday – slightly better forecast than Friday. Mainly dry earlier in the day with showers forecast to return from lunchtime. Temps 12-14C with a blustery wind throughout.
Weather (7.45am Wednesday – as ever, likely to change dramatically through the week): Wednesday 4.9mm; Thursday Dry; Friday 11mm; Saturday 12mm
GOING : Good (no change, even after that 19mm on Tuesday – so not sure I am necessarily buying that ground description)
2m4f races to be run on the round course
WEDNESDAY COURSE UPDATE: 8mm of rainfall overnight into Monday and a further 19mm through Tuesday. Dry from 17:30 yesterday and overnight. Further rain forecast today (6-7mm) and then dry overnight and through much of the day on Thursday before a more significant band of rain overnight and through Friday morning (20mm).
Yellow weather warning for wind during Friday with gusts of 45-50mph.
Watering: Last cycle of watering finished on Sunday.
Weather (7.45am Wednesday – as ever, likely to change dramatically throughout the week): Rest of Wednesday (7mm so far) – may have stopped for day; Thursday 6.2mm; Friday 14mm; Saturday 12mm
David O’Meara visor; Toyotomi, 2.10pm Doncaster; 29-260 (since 2010)
Tom Clover visor; Invictus Gold, 2.45pm Doncaster; 1-28 (2018)
1.15pm Cheltenham: Handlethekettle, Sunny South West
1.35pm Doncaster: Bulletsnap (drawn 6), Big Cigar (prom – 3)?, Glamorize (prom – 1)?, Mind Those Steps (prom – 4)?, Furturra (prom – 5)? , Lake Muritz (prom – 2)?
1.50pm Cheltenham: Passing Diamond, Jarrive de Mee, Glen To Glen, Ice Jet
2.10pm Doncaster: Dark Thirty (11), Goldmoyne (14), Station X (3), Advertised (prom – 16), Pilu (prom – 16), City Captain (prom – 7)
2.25pm Cheltenham: Loriko, Continuance, Wondering Why, Gower Prince
2.45pm Doncaster: Ellusive Butterfly (9), Inishbeg (2)
3pm Cheltenham: Eternal Angel, Governors Rock, Sixpack?, Matiwo, Planters Punch
3.35pm Cheltenham: JPR One, Calico, Soul Icon, Traprain Law, Palacio, Sans Bruit, In The Air?, Duke Of Luckley
Good: William Haggas, Kevin Philippart De Foy, Tom Clover (always seems to be in good form), Charlie Appleby, Kayley Woolacott (1 from 1…), Jamie Snowden, Nigel and Willie Twiston-Davies (winner on Wednesday), Dan Skelton (four-timer on Wednesday), Gordon Elliott (fair/good), Bailey and Nicholls (small sample), John Dawson (2 from 4), Alex Hales, Warren Greatrex (3 from 9), Russell and Scudamore, Henry De Bromhead, Alastair Ralph, Mick Appleby (4-1 winner on Wednesday)
Fair: Richard and Peter Fahey, George Scott, Tim Easterby, Richard Hannon, Hamad Al Jehani, John and Sean Quinn, David O’Meara, Robert Cowell, Grant Tuer, Harriet Bethell, Karl Burke (10-1 winner on Wednesday), Ralph Beckett (double on Wednesday, though one DQd), Fergal O’Brien, Ben Haslam, James Owen, Ben Pauling, Seamus Mullins, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill (winner on Wednesday), Jane Williams, Joe Tizzard (double on Wednesday), Paul Nicholls, Martin Keighley (25-1 winner on Wednesday), Greenall & Guerriero (7-1 winner on Wednesday)
Moderate: Roger Teal, Ruth Carr, Ed Bethell, Michael Keady (0 from 8), Kevin Ryan, Nick Scholfield, John McConnell, Willie Mullins (modest for him), Cian Collins, Tom Lacey
Don’t know (small samples):Bryan Smart (0 from 7)?, Nicky Henderson, Edward F Power, Peter John Flood, Hobbs and White, Ryan Hatch, Syd Hosie, E Buckley, Keiran Burke, Sam Thomas
Ground chat (12.16pm, Wednesday) 1.Doncaster It makes sense to work on the basis of borderline…
On this week’s Pod: Intro: MGD Betting & Paul Jones’ Book (0-3mins) Weekend Racing Review:…
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