TONY CALVIN: TODAY’s ITV action at Newmarket and Worcester covered in here

1.15pm Newmarket – Oisin Murphy may be alive to a pace opportunity here on Estissa

Now, this is one tight-knit , and relatively modest, let’s be honest, 1m fillies’ Listed race.

Not one is officially rated in three figures but four are currently on marks between 96 and 99, so it is fairly difficult to have a strong opinion.

Arisaig is the highest-rated on 99 and you you suspect she has the most talent of these, with a reproduction of her third in this race last season (she was last of five on heavy ground in this in 2024), or indeed her handicap second here in April, makes her the one to beat.

But it has now been a very long time between drinks with her – her last victory was in the summer of 2024 – and her main market rival Estissa probably makes a bit more appeal at a similar price at [7/2].

Trainer James Fanshawe continues in good form and the famous Peter Harris/Swinburn silks have also been in the winners’ enclosure a fair bit this season (they had another with Neverstream at Newmarket on Thursday), and Estissa looks an improving, lightly-raced filly with more to offer.

There isn’t a lot of pace in here though, if any (maybe just Lizzana?) and a mile on quick ground could be a touch too sharp for her, so maybe Oisin Murphy could look to switch up the tactics and ride her more aggressively than adopt the usual waiting style to date.

He could get an uncontested lead here if he wants to make it.

And he should in my opinion.

She is certainly one well-bred filly, by Dubawi out of the trainer and owner’s dual Group 1 winning Audayra.

But I won’t be having a bet, in all probability.

That’s the theme of my day.

1.50pm Newmarket – Land could take this prize but 4s is a borderline walkaway price (12.07pm Thursday)

Brielle and Francophone are NRs.

I bet David Menuisier was one relieved man when Tribal Chief won at Goodwood on Wednesday.

That was his first winner since June and he had had nearly 70 runners since.

Whether or not he can kick on from there remains to be seen – Tribal Chief had a perfect set-up – but would-be backers of his 11/4 favourite Inis Mor will be hoping he can.

Placed in the French and Irish Oaks, she clearly is the form horse here but she does have to put a poor run in the Yorkshire Oaks behind her here, albeit she now retreats from Group 1 company to this Grade 3 level.

Prizeland also disappointed at Doncaster last time , even though the figures would have you believe she probably ran close to the form of her earlier impressive York success over 1m4f.

She didn’t look to fully get home stepped up to 1m6f at Donny though, so the step back down to 1m4f looks a wise and obvious move.

The 4s about her is fair – this is not a deep Group 3 at all – but possibly a borderline price, and it is only available in two places, as well.

If you can get the 4s, four places, she is a bet, but cherry-picking in Stoke would not be a legitimate “tip”. Or maybe even accessible to a fair few.

Another sit-out, I imagine.

 

 

 

2.05pm Worcester – Jones and Bowen not bad men to have on your side here (9am Thursday)

Worcester is a surprise addition to the ITV ranks on Friday – that has still not prompted the course to tell us how much they have been watering, though they are probably safe in the knowledge that the two broadcasters won’t call them out – and, as I mentioned below, it appears the conditions of this 2m4f handicap chase has caught out five trainers.

Six horses were not qualified at the overnight stage; they were King Roly, Nickelforce, Mumford’s Magic, Ghasham, Little Ledgend and Tamarind Bay.

The conditions were rather specific though –  “4yo+ which have started in two or more chases at ARC Racecourses this season, at least one of which must have been a qualifier” – so that has left us with 12 runners for this 50k pot.

I am not going to pretend I have watched any summer jump racing, so I wouldn’t insult you with anything approaching a recommendation, but I would point out that trainer Jack Jones has been in cracking form on the Flat (6 from 13 of late) and the 10s, four places, about his Regal Renaissance, fit and in form, appears to have a fair bit going for her.

Jones also has a career 21 per cent strike rate with his jumpers too, so he knows what he is doing in both spheres.

And Sean Bowen is not a bad man to have on your side, either.

But I wouldn’t dream of having a bet on something in which I don’t even have half a picture on.

 

2.25pm Newmarket – The Rockfel is a very winnable Group 2 for someone but no idea who (12.37pm Thursday)

Siena Storm is a NR.

The official ratings tell you this is one winnable Group 2 race – Sugar Yes Please and Light Of Dawn, rated 102 and 101 respectively, just creep into three figures on the BHA scale – and none of these appear to have clocked a notable speed figure either.

I know she is an unbeaten twice-raced Juddmonte filly of the Gosdens (she is a sister to sire Calyx) but I was a little surprised to see Spirited Gesture put in here at a general 7/4 (2s in one place), and Big John did say she’d prefer some cut in the ground after her impressive debut on the July course before winning at 6s-on at Newcastle last time.

Mind you, she didn’t look too bad on good to firm at Newmarket at the start of August and Timeform actually have her as their top-rated filly in here, and by some way.

So maybe 2s is okay; it is certainly not for me, though.

Dutch the two 14s pokes?

I could rabbit on but I have no strong betting opinion here and I probably won’t be getting involved – Friday’s ITV offering is a bit like that, unfortunately – though, gun to my head, I thought the 14s pokes Speed Of Sound and Pensando A Te were okay prices.

Speed Of Sound beat Pensando A Te by a head at Yarmouth at the start of August (the runner-up probably shaping best), and both have progressed well since, with last-time-out wins respectively at Doncaster and Ascot.

They could both be overpriced at 14s as this goes live, and I’d favour the Botti filly of the pair. She looked good at Ascot.

 

 

2.40pm Worcester – 33/1 Devon Red may be the best of the outsiders (11.17am Thursday)

Big NR as Yellow Card is out (bruised foot) as at 10.19am, so changed each-way terms as we are down to 15 runners.

A full field of 16 (none balloted out – well it was a full field anyway) for this fixed brush 2m4f novices’ handicap hurdle – I used to love that staying handicap hurdle at Haydock when it was over the fixed brush hurdles.

There is no shortage of pace in here, that’s for sure (see pace map below).

A relative shortie and a long one

I probably won’t be having a bet (have I said that before?) but I thought recent course winner Lock Stock, from a stable I have a lot of time for,  was a fair enough price at 13/2 and if you are looking for a wilder priced swing then Devon Red fits the bill at 33s (you can gets 33s and five places with four firms) in a few places.

Nominally, he is 11lb out of the handicap but in fact he is only 1lb wrong , as he got put up 10lb on Tuesday for a much-improved second in a maiden hurdle at Newton Abbot last time, splitting two much higher-rated horses and only just getting chinned on the run-in.

He showed the square root of jack shit in four starts in points – he didn’t beat a horse home, and looked devoid of any talent  – but the ever-impressive Nick Scholfield seemingly has him going the right way over hurdles and if the first-time blinkers eke out more improvement (he has already worn a hood and cheekpieces in his four hurdling starts – it is only the third time Scholfield has utilised this new headgear option) then he could outrun his odds.

Maybe.

 

3pm Newmarket – Another underwhelming Group 2, I am afraid (1.04pm Thursday)

This 165k 1m Group 2 race did well to get seven runners.

It looked like being five before Charlie Appleby threw in Wild Desert, presumably as a pacemaker for Talk Of New York , and then Audience (another pace option along with Hankelow) was added in very late.

Still the one shy for each way 1,2,3 purposes though – and this race needed that to make it an attractive betting medium.

As it is, Talk Of New York is the predictable 4/6 and 8/13 chance and reasonably hard to oppose on first viewing.

However, his third to Bow Echo and Gstaad in the St James Palace Stakes may not be as good as it was cracked up to be at the time and I thought he didn’t make life easy for William Buick when beaten at 2/5 at Goodwood last time; Buick got pelters there but the horse did take a while to get going.

He could be more vulnerable than the price suggests but it another easy race to watch without a bet, I am afraid.

 

3.35pm Newmarket – Definitely quality and not quantity here (1.19pm Wednesday)

I was a little surprised to see one of the first firms up on this four-runner 1m4f Listed race go very strong on Kokbastau at 8/11, and offer Fortitudine at 11/4.

It just seemed wrong.

Now, Kokbastau is undoubtedly the form and time standard-setter in here after his 1m2f handicap success off 102 at Sandown last time – he was value for more than the head margin given he had to wait for a run and pounce very late – and the step back up to 1m4f is no issue.

And there could be a whole heap more to come from him given the problems he had at two (had a “massive fracture”) and the patience they had to show with him.

But you can say the same about the pair of Godolphin twice-raced unbeaten runners who have pedigree to burn, and Charlie Appleby has his team in irresistible form at the moment.

Fortitudine, 11/4 early, may not have been as flashy as his 21-length Kempton debut win when following up at the same track last time but this full brother to Rebel’s Romance obviously has to be respected as he steps up in grade.

As does his trainer/ownermate Castlemont, a full brother to Bay Bridge and initially put in at 11/2.

And Archers Bay is no mug either , with his early odds ranging from 5s to 8s.

Not a particularly enticing betting race in truth, but undoubtedly one which you don’t want to miss. I suspect Kokbastau could be a tough nut to crack, but I’d want decent odds-against to consider backing him.

Let’s see how this market develops in the next 48 hours.

Update (1.06pm Thursday): Nothing much has happened, though Kokbastau is now available at evens and Fortitudine has been trimmed into 5/2 and possibly likely to be 9/4 soon enough.

 

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Wednesday early snippets

Worcester is a surprise addition to the ITV ranks on Friday and it appears the conditions of the 2.05pm caught out five trainers, meaning six horses were not qualified.

They were King Roly, Nickelforce, Mumford’s Magic, Ghasham, Little Ledgend and Tamarind Bay.

The conditions were rather specific though, so presumably this caught the five trainers unawares: “4yo+ which have started in two or more chases at ARC Racecourses this season, at least one of which must have been a qualifier.”

I sometimes have to double-check which tracks are ARC-owned for TV viewing purposes…

 

Watering

Anyway, they have been watering at Worcester and not telling us how much, so I may just ignore the two ITV races there.

If they can’t be bothered, why should I?

They have told us how much they watered at Newmarket on Tuesday (8mm) and it made a difference.

The good is now good (from good, good to firm in places) and the going stick went from 7.8 on Monday to 6.7 on Wednesday morning.

Hopefully, that is the end of the watering there.

 

Big no-show

The 1m4f Listed race at 3.35pm at Newmarket has cut up to just four runners but the big no-show on the card was Alwaysanangel, who was the 9/4 ante-post favourite for the Rockfel.

She is still in the Cheveley Park on Saturday, so maybe they will go there instead  and help ensure the race gets seven confirmations for World Pool considerations.

I’ve seen easier assignments, though it sounds like they are chancing their arm in the Group 1, with stablemate State Of Stars a possible.

Talking of seven runners, Audience was a very late confirmation (well after the other O’Meara entries) for the Group 2 Joel Stakes at 3pm.

That brought that race up to seven.

 

STATS/INFO SECTION

1.COURSE DETAILS

 

NEWMARKET

 

GOING :  Good, good to firm in places

GOING STICK :  6.6 , Friday 6am

Rails: Far Side Course in use

Stalls: Far Side

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE: Dry forecast with daytime temperatures of 20c.

Weather (7.28am Friday):  Dry and warmish and sunny

Watering: 8mm applied on Tuesday; 3mm applied to the final 10f after racing on Thursday.

 

WORCESTER

 

GOING :  Good

Rails: The racing line will be fresh ground on the most inner racing line possible at Worcester.

GOING STICK :  5.2, Friday 7.15am

Soil Moisture: 53%

FRIDAY COURSE UPDATE:  Dry over the past week Forecast: Mostly dry throughout today with sunny spells, 18°C.

Weather (7.28am Friday):  20 degrees, dry and overcast

Watering: Light selective watering to maintain

 

2.FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS 

 

Karl Burke cheekpieces; Hankelow, 3pm Newmarket; 21-278 (9%) -111pts at SP

Billy Aprahamian visor; Pep Talking, 2.05pm Worcester; the first time he has used a visor

Sarah Jayne-Davies cheekpieces; Disco Davis, 2.05pm Worcester; 0-4

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill blinkers; Country Park, 2.05pm Worcester; (AJ on licence from May 2024, so figures from then) 0-1

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill cheekpieces; So Proud, 2.40pm Worcester; (as above) 0-2

Nick Scholfield blinkers; Devon Red, 2.40pm Worcester; 0-2

 

3.PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

1.15pm Newmarket (there is an opportunity for a jockey to press on here):  Lizzana (drawn 2)?

1.50pm Newmarket: Ryka (5), Venetia (9) – Brielle and Francophone are NRs

2.05pm Worcester: Karnaval Point, Regal Renaissance, Pep Talking, Youdecide, She Is For Me Boys, Martin’s Denuo, Disco Davis

2.25pm Newmarket:  Miss Miniver (6), Redline (10), Speed Of Sound (2) – Siena Storm is a NR

2.40pm Worcester:  Trouville, Regarde, Whinney Hill, Square D’Alboni, Lock Stock, Miss Kingston, Katarcice – Yellow Card is a NR

3pm Newmarket:  Audience (7), Hankelow (3), Wild Desert (2)

3.35pm Newmarket: Castlemont (3), Fortitudine (4), Kokbastau? (2)

 

4.TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; form going into Friday)

 

Excellent: Charlie Appleby

Good: Dan Skelton, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Jennie Candlish,  Jack Jones, Nick Scholfield , Stuart Edmunds (2 from 2 of late), William Haggas (22-1 winner on Thursday), Karl Burke, James Fanshawe, John and Thady Gosden

Fair: Mickey Bowen, Donald McCain (fair-moderate), Charlie Johnston, Ben Haslam, Ed Bethell, Ralph Beckett, Marco Botti, David O’Meara,  Andrew Balding (treble on Wednesday – good/fair), Roger Varian,  Richard and Peter Fahey, George Scott (5-1 winner on Wednesday), Richard Spencer, Fergal O’Brien (12-1 and 5-1 winners on Wednesday), James Owen

Moderate:  Tom Dascombe (one second and a lot of big-priced horses though), Ed Walker (moderate-fair), Sean Woods, Hugo Palmer, Eve Johnson Houghton, David Menuisier (broke a very long losing run at Goodwood on Wednesday with 11-4 Tribal Chief), Richard Hannon

Don’t know (small samples but these are winnerless): David Pipe, Ben Pauling, Sarah-Jayne Davies,  Jamie Snowden;  Toby Bulgin, Chester Williams, Alastair Ralph, Dave Roberts

Winners from very few recent runners: Olly Murphy,  Henry Oliver, Billy Aphrahamian