TONY CALVIN: TAKING a swing at a few today at double figures, including a 50s chance

1.15pm Doncaster – Dutching Maxi and Align win-only

I can fully see the case for the top five in the betting and a win for none of those would surprise me – as they are all priced between [7/2] and [6/1] that is not telling you much – but the way I played this race, exchange-wise, earlier this morning was to dutch Maxi King and Align The Stars.

Just to small stakes, though Maxi King has shortened considerably in the last half-hour in all arenas, so the angle into him is disappearing/disappeared.

They are available at 9s (from a general 11s) and 14s fixed-odds, where you can back them each-way, four places, at a quarter the odds with one firm at those prices.

There is some trepidation with backing Align The Stars as we don’t know if blinkers second time around will have the same positive effect on him (you can easily argue he regressed after a good initial run in cheekpieces).

But he certainly travelled and ran a lot more sweetly in the headgear when a good fourth off this mark in the Old Borough Cup last weekend, and we know he is fairly handicapped on his premier form, notably that reappearance run behind Al Qareem at Nottingham in April.

I reckon this is a weaker race than last week.

Kevin Philippart De Foy is settling in well as Amo’s trainer and Maxi King has his first start for him, having not been seen since a third at Epsom in June.

He is harshly 1lb higher here (he was beaten 4 lengths at Epsom, for all he shaped a bit better than that) and his only previous attempt at this trip saw him only beat one home, so there are negatives, but I think a more patient ride could pay dividends here.

He has run well on both starts here (a win and an eighth in the November Handicap) and a creeping ride with a late pounce could suit this strong traveller well. But 9s is possibly his price now, though that is going.

1.50pm Doncaster – This Listed race looks wide open

This meeting is rather 2yo heavy and that is not ideal for my way of punting, as I tend to prefer more meat on the bone when assessing a race.

This looks an open renewal of the Flying Scotsman too, with Catullus heading the betting at [3/1] – not any more, see below – with Hankelow snapping at his heels at the [7/2] mark, with Do Or Do Not and Frescobaldi 6s+ on the exchange.

Aside those four, we have another three once-raced winners (Karl Burke’s impressive York winner Hankelow also won on his debut), so we are obviously dealing with oodles of potential.

Sexiness aside, you can obviously make a fair case for Do Or Do Not being the bet in the race at 6s each way, given the plentiful form of his dance card (placed in Group 2 company on his last four starts) but do you really want to be forcing a bet in a race like this?

Na.

This is a 7f Listed race, but it could easily be more akin to a Group 2 prize come 1.52pm (if they are off on time).

I wouldn’t fall over if any of the 10 won myself, for all Electrical and De Bronxs are available at 33s and 40s respectively, as it is that kind of race.

Unappealing.

The favourite Catallus has just come out at 8.32am (going), followed by Northern Champion at 10.55am (going).

2.25pm Doncaster – Dickensian maybe, but this looks a dickens of a race to solve

AKBets are top price every horse in this race as at midday.

And the juvenile contests just keep coming, and this time we are confronted with the Group 2 5f Flying Childers Stakes.

At least here, we have plenty of the aforementioned meat to chew on, as they have all raced at least three times.

The least experienced is the [9/4] favourite Mission Central and perhaps he is also the most talented too after his win in Group 3 company over 6f at the Curragh last time.

The manner in which he has put to bed his last two races suggest he has the speed required for this 5f contest and I’d probably agree with him heading the market, even if [9/4] is maybe a touch skinny with the stable not powering on full volume at the moment.

With none of these rated higher than 106 (the mark of Mission Central and Lady Iman), the door is open for one of the others to step up – maybe Dickensian at 20s+ wasn’t a bad shout, but I see he has shortened into 12s now – but I am not going to have a bet.

By the way, if you had an early punt on this race Military Code, who ranged between [11/2] and [13/2], was a non-runner at 5.09pm on Thursday (going), so they’ll be a small Rule 4 there.

3pm Doncaster – 6/4 Sweet William has the class, if he has the inclination

It is great to see this race named in honour of Howard Wright, the legendary Racing Post journalist who was actually responsible for me getting a summer job at the paper in 1987, those six weeks eventually turning into 10 years.

A good man.

I bet Sweet William can’t believe his luck with none of the big boys to worry about again here, chiefly among them his stablemate Trawlerman, and this should be a penalty kick for him, talent-wise.

Mind you, quite a fair percentage of penalties are missed, and Sweet William has often been accused of being a tricky customer (some think he turned it in when second in this race in 2023, and he had a think about it before holding on last year).

And his recent win record – for all he is 5 from 17 overall – isn’t too impressive for one so talented.

However, that is because he often dines at the top table and he did convert in this race last season as a [7/4] favourite, taking it up 2f out and seeing it out to beat Trueshan by a length, with Coltrane (re-opposes here) 2 ¾ lengths away in fourth.

He is unpenalized for that win as penalties only kick in after March 31 this season.

He ran as well as ever when second to the aforementioned Trawlerman in the Lonsdale Cup at York last time and should be winning this, for all he is not the type of horse I’d be falling over to back at [11/8] myself, with [6/4] available in a place.

Each-way plays against him are fraught with danger when we have the dead-eight, with a non-runner threatening to scupper that angle.

Official ratings suggest Sunway is the most likely to chin him but he is no win machine himself, having failed to get his head in front since his Group 1 2yo success, and I think I read somewhere that Hipop De Loire needs to finish in the first three in this to make his planned Australian venture this autumn/winter easier.

There were nibbles for Pendragon from 10s downwards from early yesterday and he is a general 7s poke now and I can see why as the only 3yo in the race, and an improving one at that, as his winning run only came to an end of the hands of Melrose winner/St Leger runner Tarriance at Sandown last time.

If he stays this extra 4f (and we shouldn’t be blasé about that), he is a contender for place honours getting all the weight, but it’ll be disappointing if Normandie Stud’s Sweet William can’t nail this mission. I’m probably not playing here – and certainly not until I know all eight are going.

Luck takes to the sky for charity

I reckon Nick Luck has a crush on the Normandie Stud owner, you know.

Talking of the great man, Luck is doing a Skydive for the Cystic Fibrosis Trust on Sunday, September 14.

Details are here if you want to donate (cut and paste if you need to, as not sure it comes out as a click-through link); https://www.justgiving.com/page/nick-luck-1?utm_medium=FR&utm_source=TW

3.25pm Salisbury – 50/1 Ourbren may be able to gun these down in the ground

What’s this, another 2yo race on the box, you say?

This wasn’t due to be on ITV but the Dick Poole was abandoned last week (waterlogged), so it has been rescheduled here, and they have got a good turnout of 12.

The first thing to say is that we are dealing with soft ground here (actually it is soft, heavy in places), and only one of these has raced on ground officially that deep, the 50s outsider Ourbren, now that Spinning Lizzie came out with a cut leg at 8.42pm last night. And Dandana has just come out as at 8,22am (going); 5pm Rule 4 there, probably. She may not be the last one to come out.

This could be attritional stuff with more rain forecast from early afternoon, and it is already heavy on the straight course.

Do you really want to betting on horses who have no experience of ground this testing?

My answer would usually be no but Ourbren is 50s, four places, with two outfits, and generally 50s, three places with others, and I think that could be worth a minor each-way tickle.

Now, her fourth at Bath on her debut clearly needs massively building on here but there was a lot of promise in that effort, as she powered home late doors after a tardy start.

It was quite eye-catching in its lowly way.

That came on soft ground, as stated above, so we know she can handle it, and her half-sister won on it, too.

And, given how well her sire Starman has started at stud, she could prove to be a very cheap buy at 5,000 guineas in November (originally cost 50k euros in August, so she may had had an issue in between).

The extra test of stamina will suit on run-style and pedigree and she is worth a very small interest here at a general 50s.

A powerful argument I made, clearly; she is now a general 80s as at midday.

3.40pm Doncaster – Dorrit has a big chance but price has ebbed away

Sometimes when I do the first draft of the column the day before, I just know that a price will not survive.

And that was the case with the 12s one bookmaking outfit (two firms) were offering about Little Dorrit on Thursday.

It just looked wrong.

Hands up, I managed to get a little bit on each-way at those odds and at 10s, but would I back her now at a general [15/2] and 7s, with 8s available in one place?

Honestly no, but I will make the case for her in case she drifts back out a touch (she may well do).

She is from Bert Black’s Chasemore Farm, and this Camelot filly (out of the owner’s smart Listed race winner Eartha Kitt) has left her underwhelming, last-of-10, debut run at Ascot in May firmly behind her.

She won well under today’s jockey Ray Dawson at Kempton next time up and then she ran a huge race as a 66s poke in the Galtres Stakes at York last time.

She was beaten under 3 lengths there and it is fair to say she didn’t get the run of the race either, so an opening mark of 93 could underplay her ability.

She is obviously unexposed after just the three runs and her stable is going very well at the moment. This is a good fillies’ handicap with depth, but I’ll be disappointed if she isn’t in the first four.

But I think she is just about a walkaway price at the moment. Spirit Of Jura is a NR as of 7.43am (bruised foot).

FRIDAY DETAILS – updated on Friday morning

DONCASTER

GOING – Straight: Good, good to soft in places; Round course: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick: 6.3, Friday 7.30am

Rails: Round Course, 4yds off innermost line. +12yds to round races of 1m 2f and further.

Stalls: Straight – Centre Round – Inner

Friday morning course update: 2mm yesterday Friday – mainly dry in the morning with the chance of showers from early afternoon. Not expecting large amounts. Temps 18C Southerly winds

Weather:  1mm Friday (though it was looking darker than 1mm at 1.30pm….)

SALISBURY

GOING: Soft, heavy in places (heavy in places on the straight course)

Going stick: 6.3 Friday 6am (was 6.7, Thursday 7am & 7.5, Wednesday 7.15am)

Friday morning course update: 58mm rain Wed 27th Aug to Thurs 4th Sept. 1.5mm on Sun 7th Sept 5mm rain Tuesday night. 4mm rain during Wednesday daytime & 4mm rain Wednesday evening. 5MM RAIN DURING THURSDAY. Friday – heavy dew, bright and breezy morning with chance of occasional showers in the afternoon (around 2mm)

Stalls: 6F, 7F, 1M – Far side 1M2F – Inside

Weather: 4,3mm Friday

NO FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS ON ITV RACES (a rarity)

PACE MAPS (manually assessed; draws attached)

1.15pm: Duraji (drawn 6), Align The Stars (10), Midnight Lion (13)

1.50pm: Frescobaldi (3), Sir Albert (1), Sunset On Leros (4) – Catallus NR (going)

2.25pm: Dickensian (4), Exclamation (7), Kansas (8),  Mission Central (2), Argentine Tango (10), Killavia (1), Revival Power (11) – Military Code NR (going)

3pm: Tashkhan (6), Pendragon (4)

3.25pm Salisbury: Awaken (12), Azleet (8), Orion’s Belt (1), Reimagined (4)

3.40pm: Cape Flora (13), Manara (12), Chilli Queen (8) – Spirit Of Jura is a NR as at 7.43am (bruised foot)

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Good: Charlie Clover (very small sample, so questionable maybe), Sir Mark Prescott, John and Thady Gosden, George Boughey, Tim Easterby (six winners on Tuesday alone), Rod Millman, David Simcock (great form, has won with four of his last six runners), Simon and Ed Crisford, Roger Varian, Olly Murphy, Charlie Appleby, Willie Mullins, Russell and Scudamore, Karl Burke (double on Thursday), Kevin Philippart De Foy

Fair:  Kevin Ryan, Hugo Palmer, Richard Hannon, Eve Johnson Houghton, Ed Walker, David O’Meara, Marco Botti, Richard Fahey, Stan Moore, Ralph Beckett, Newland and Insole, Ian Williams, Andrew Balding, David Menuisier, Jim Goldie, Brian Toomey, Grace Harris (pretty good), Ger Lyons, Hughie Morrison, Jane Chapple-Hyam, Emma Lavelle, Charlie Johnston

Moderate:  Aidan O’Brien (moderate for him), Richard Hughes, David Loughnane (just had a 12-1 winner at Chester…), Brian Ellison (just had a 4-5 winner at Chester…), Kevin Frost

Don’t know: Lucy Wadham