TONY CALVIN: 20/1 Chicago could go down a storm at Exeter

1.50pm Exeter – Time to kick these small-field novices’ chases off the main slots

I think ITV and the racecourses should make an early decision to kick these small-field novices’ chases off the main terrestrial slots, as they are a continued embarrassment, numbers-wise.

Unless the Irish send over horses, as they did at Cheltenham last month (and even then we only got seven runners, with the Irish supplying five).

We even had a walkover in a “Chasing Excellence” Beginners’ Chase at Newbury on Thursday.

I appreciate not every race has to be betting-driven and there are obvious sponsorship considerations in taking races off ITV – I assume ICL, named in the race title, are a company but a google search threw up lots of possibilities – but a switch with the 14-runner 0-120 handicap hurdle at 4.10pm, or even the 1.15pm, would have made sense.

I’d put these races on at the start of the card, record them and show a replay on the ITV coverage.

As it happens, a field of four is above the norm for this “Excellence Initiative” and we have horses rated between 132 and 140, so the quality is decent, too.

The highest-rated hurdler (140) Quebecois is the current evens favourite, followed by Western Knight at [4/1], Doyen Quest at [9/2] and Tiny Tetley at [6/1], as at 3.20pm on Thursday.

Doyen Quest is the one with chasing experience but the downside of that is that he carries a 5lb penalty for his [1/50] win in a three-runner chase at Warwick in May.

I won’t be having a bet, but this is what Paul Nicholls said of the favourite Quebecois in a recent Racing Post interview.

Nicholls:

“He showed improvement as a novice hurdler when we upped him to three miles at Ayr’s Scottish National meeting and I think he has a big future as a staying novice chaser.

“You’d expect him to stay well as his half-brother was Albert Bartlett winner Brindisi Breeze. I hope mapping out a programme for a horse like him will be slightly easier as they have introduced some more valuable beginners’ chases into the programme this winter.

“We took him off for an away-day gallop nine days ago and the aim is to start off either in the Listed three-mile chase at Exeter on Friday, the race we won a couple of years ago with Stay Away Fay, or a beginners’ chase at Kempton the following week. He’s the sort you hope might be lining up for a Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in 12 months’ time.”

I have just noticed this is a 40k pot, too.

I appreciate this is a long-term initiative from the BHA but we just don’t have the horses to adequately service them (as it is money is being given away – if they all finish, the fourth gets £2,512).

Until we do, take the races off ITV.

2.25pm Exeter – Late decision will be made on the 6/4 favourite

I’ll do the rest of the ITV card later but be aware that the general [6/4] favourite Kalif Du Berlais may not run in the 100k Haldon Gold Cup.

Trainer Paul Nicholls told Betfair:

“It’s a big day for him, he won on good ground at Aintree, he doesn’t want it too soft, but it needs to be safe.

“When we get to Exeter we’ll be having a good walk round the track to check the ground, and it could be we’ll make a decision even after we’ve run Quebecois.

“But we want to run him if we can, and I’m very happy with him, he looks great.”

Fair play to Nicholls’ for his honesty – though this “safe ground” talk is not helpful – but it means punters could be looking at a 40p Rule here.

Here Comes Georgie and recent Wetherby winner Thistle Ask have a job on from out of the handicap (though the latter is an improver), but there is £5,500 for fourth, so fair play for chancing it.

10/1 Segal could be the one

You can make a fair case for all four in the handicap at their respective odds, perhaps most obviously the Nicholls horse, a 5yo who he was talking up rather big-styleee at the start of the week (maybe he regrets doing so now…), but [6/4] is nothing too flash against last year’s winner JPR One and the well-handicapped Martator, and maybe the proven race-fitness of Saint Segal could be telling.

The opening 10s about him went on Wednesday and he is now a general [15/2] and 7s poke (9s in a place still remains) and he is up to a career-high mark of 148 after his recent Chepstow win.

But the rise has been justified, and the step back down to 2m1f+ doesn’t bother me here, though the better grade of opposition certainly does.

I will play the race only once I know if the favourite goes, as it has pace implications if he doesn’t.

And perhaps a positive one for Saint Segal (10s now available again, as 4.40pm).

3pm Exeter – 20/1 Chicago could go down a storm on the ground

A full field of 18 for this 2m handicap hurdle and not an easy one to solve but the two I am going to have small win-only stabs on are Moorland Rambler and Chicago Storm at 18s and 20s, or bigger, respectively.

Correction – very small bets.

And double correction – I am going to wait until a Friday morning going update from Exeter before backing Moorland Rambler, especially as I also sense he may drift.

Moorland Rambler went out like a light on his Newton Abbot return last month but that was over an extended 2m5f and hopefully the return to the minimum trip and to Exeter will see a fair more polished performance.

He has run some of his better efforts at this track and looks fairly handicapped off 101, for all the assessor didn’t even drop him 1lb for that Newton Abbot run.

Ideally, this heavy ground winner may prefer a bit more dig – so they could even pull him out on the day perhaps – but I’ll chance a modest wager, probably on the exchange, if they get some rain in the next 4 hours.

Chicago Storm is the bet at the moment.

He is only 2lb higher than when winning under today’s 7lb claimer Robbie David at Stratford last March (this race is admittedly far deeper than that) and he was returning after a 119-day absence when fifth on the Flat at Kempton last time.

He shaped quite well from off the pace at Kempton under an inexperienced 7lb claimer and the stable are going okay of late, with a winner from a small number of runners.

The expected good ground looks perfect for him, so 20s and 18s look big enough, with the general 16s acceptable (especially if you have access to extra places and want to play each way).

He has been dropped 2lb from 113 to 111 since his last hurdles run, which allows him to get into this 0-110 handicap, and I warmed to him the more I looked at his chance.

Therefore, he has been been upgraded from a very small bet to a small one, and the best on ITV’s offering at Exeter.

Granted, it wouldn’t be the best punting offering I have seen, here or at Hexham.

3.35pm Exeter – Harding’s horse one to track and trace in market after a long absence

I can fully see the case for Jupiter Allen, having joined Chester Williams from Mum, with Harry Cobden up, but I wanted bigger than [7/2].

He won first time out here last season and looks on a fair mark of 124 judged on his subsequent Taunton success – he didn’t shine in the National Hunt Chase on his most recent start, when racing too freely over the 3m6f trip – but this race has more depth than [7/2] quotes imply.

The [25/1] outsider Hipop Des Ongrais is interesting enough at the price, coming back from a long absence after we last saw him winning at Hereford in November 2023.

Owned by the relatively local Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe (I assume it is that Baroness Harding anyway…), from the capable Robert Walford yard, it will be instructive (possibly) to see which way he is tracked and traced in the market.

Walford’s horses wouldn’t be in peak nick but he has a fair record with first-time cheekpieces (see below) and this 8yo has his ground for his return, presumably after a fairly significant injury.

And Walford was pretty complimentary about the horse after he won at Hereford, saying: “We’ve always thought he’s got a big engine and we haven’t seen it yet. I’ve always thought he’d end up at a big track but he’s just not ready for it.”

Yes, he is interesting enough at the general 25s and 22s.

Hexham – Still waiting on ground updates

Hexham have still not updated their going on Thursday, ahead of their big ITV day on Friday (updated 9.27pm and again 6.32am this morning) .

Quite why they wouldn’t have updated their going stick reading since 11.15am on Tuesday, and their going since 7.39am on Wednesday, I am not sure.

It was good to soft then.

Call me old-fashioned but I like to know the ground when looking at races, especially when they were forecasting rain after their latest update yesterday.

Very little has probably changed ground-wise in the last 31 hours or so, and I am probably just being a grumpy old bastard once again, but it seems an unnecessary own goal to me.

I don’t think I have ever seen a track fail to update their going/details like this the day before an ITV fixture.

Fair play to clerk James Armstrong who responded on X on Thursday evening:

“I failed to confirm the update on the adminsite by not pressing a button this pm after walking- but X did get an update. hands up! No change to ground and all updated now.”

My brief early thoughts on the two ITV races are now below.

2.45pm Hexham – Two caught my eye early doors

Make that three

Piaff Bubbles and Romeo Brown made most appeal at 12s and 9s respectively early doors, as at 4pm on Thursday.

Piaff Bubbles (sounds like a character Joanna Lumley would play – not that she is typecast, of course….) has had a wind op and the cheekpieces taken off since we last saw him – which was I while ago now, back in February – and you’d like to see the Rebecca Menzies yard in better form.

But he has good course form (beaten only a neck off this mark in March 2023) and he would be of some interest maybe if they have had rain since Wednesday morning.

Backers of Romeo Brown will have been glad to see the stable have another winner on Thursday (they have only had a couple of late from a fair few runners) and this course winner is handicapped to be competitive off 98, following a reappearance spin at Wetherby last month.

He looks by far the most solid of that pair.

And 12/1 chance Mornington Beach could be the best of them all

Actually, make that three that caught my eye as Mornington Beach hails from the George Bewley yard that had winners at 33s and 14s at Ayr last week and this one ran well at 80s here over 2m last time, when second to a 4s-on poke.

A mark of 97 could be highly exploitable for this 12s, 11s and 10s chance.

She won the last of her three Irish points (the third in that race won a bumper at Fontwell in September) and she has a lightly-raced profile, with the step up in trip expected to suit.

I’m off to get some double-figures about her, and 9s would sort me at a push; I think this half-sister to the smart Corrigeen Rock could be the shortener in this.

3.20pm Hexham – 3/1 Hello Judge rules the current betting

The dead eight in this makes things very precarious for each-way backers.

This is a decent 20k pot for the 2m4f handicap chase though, and recent Carlisle winner Hello Judge heads the betting at 3s.

I don’t have a strong betting opinion but it will be interesting (I have said interesting a lot in this column, apologies – especially as a lot of the Friday racing isn’t) to see what the highly capable and in-form Sam England yard can do with new recruit Hudson De Grugy.

I wouldn’t like to be laying that one at the available 10s and 9s.

FRIDAY’s DETAILS

EXETER

GOING – Good

Going stick: 5.5, Friday 7.30am

Rails: Exeter Bend (Away) – Hurdle at innermost, Chase bend out by 8 yards from innermost Plymouth Bend (Home) – Hurdle out by 8 yards from innermost , Chase out by 8 yards from innermost

Friday morning course update: 21mm between 21 Oct and 29 Oct. 4.5mm Thursday 30th 8mm Friday 31st 1mm Saturday,1 Nov 2.5 mm Sunday. 1.5mm Monday. Tues – 15mm. Weds – 3.5mm. Thurs – Dry and cloudy. Fri – 0.5mm overnight, showers this morning, developing into light rain by mid-day, may turn heavier from 1300. 1mm – 2mm possible before Racing starts, (5mm – 8mm possible by end of Racing).

Weather (yr.no latest):  4.7mm Friday

HEXHAM

GOING – Good to soft, soft in places

Remained dry but 2 days of heavy dews and no wind.

Going stick: 6.2, Friday 9am

Friday morning course update: Partly Cloudy. Fri 7th: 14c overcast with sunny spells and light winds from south.

Weather (yr.no latest): 1.8mm Friday

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

1.50pm Exeter: Doyen Quest?, Quebecois, Tiny Tetley

2.25pm Exeter: Kalif Du Berlais, Saint Segal, Thistle Ask

2.45pm Hexham: Mighty Moth?, Hay Meadow, Rioja Alta, Tommie Gun, Romeo Brown

3pm Exeter: Not So Sobers, Moorland Rambler, Pheonix Risen, Gavin, Vengeance?, Poet’s Reflection?

3.20pm Hexham: Lounge Lizard?, Pinot Rouge, Rattling Road, Hello Judge, Malaita

3.35pm Exeter: Annsam, Village Master, Jupiter Allen , Stans The Man, Gyenyame, Vision De Maine

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Excellent: George Bewley (just three runners but 33-1 and 14-1 winners)

Good: Paul Nicholls, Dylan Cunha, Daisy Hitchins (small sample), Anthony Honeyball (very good), Sam England (very good)

Fair: Dan Skelton, Joe Tizzard, Hobbs and White (winner on Thursday), Jane Williams, Killahena and McPherson, Warren Greatrex, Mickey Bowen, Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, David Pipe, Mark Walford, Jackie Stephen, Micky Hammond, Henry Daly (double on Thursday), Billy Aphrahamian

Moderate: Evan Williams, Jeremy Scott, Syd Hosie, Robert Walford (small sample though and recent second), Russell and Scudamore, Rebecca Menzies, Ewan Whillans, Parkinson and Smith (though 7-4 winner on Thursday), Mel Rowley

Don’t know: Venetia Williams (obv Djelo won Charlie Hall), Stuart Kittow, Chester Williams. Jimmy Frost, Joe Tickle (one runner, one 14-1 winner). Linda Blackford, Ella Pickard (four recent runners; 125-1 to 300-1 pokes), Eloise Quayle, Susan Corbett, Maurice Barnes, Ann Hamilton