By Tony Calvin - 13 January 2025
WITH ITV Racing showing 21 races from Friday to Sunday inclusive, it promises to be a busy four days for this column – my method of working entails writing the initial draft at the 48-hour stage, editing and re-writing as required the following morning, then posting a day-of-race update – so I can’t say I am inclined to get involved at the ante-post stage.
It’s a long road ahead, but AKBets have priced up 12 of the 21 contests, so crack on if you disagree.
Head to the website at akbets.bet.
So this is going to be relatively short and sharp, with the War And Peace efforts coming from Thursday onwards when we know what is running etc.
As I often say, there is often precious little value in the ante-post markets these days, so you are likely to at least get similar prices on the day, with enhanced terms thrown in.
Of course, there will be shorteners (especially if cherry-picking the stand-outs in places, which is the domain of few these days), but I’d say waiting is increasingly my default position.
For example, AKBets have just launched the “AK’s Big Prices” tab and I imagine they will be trading the anticipated Jonbon v Energumene clash in Saturday’s Clarence House Stakes, bold-type aggressively come the day.
So keep an eye out on that feature on the website, for all sports.
Company Man Alert…
We may as well touch upon that Grade 1 clash (coming shortly after I have been to the dry cleaners), but please do keep an eye on the double-entered horses below in all of the 21 races.
The emergence of the Windsor fixtures on Friday and Sunday means there are a lot of options for the horses this weekend, and trainers have not been slow to take advantage .
As ever, I wouldn’t touch any horses with multiple entries from an ante-post perspective, with four handicaps in particular awash with double-entered horses (see below).
The good news is the cold snap has done one, and we shouldn’t have any problems with the six tracks featuring on the ITV coverage.
A couple of newsworthy lines.
Gerri Colombe was basically ruled out of Sunday’s Fleur De Lys Chase at Windsor hours after trainer Gordon Elliott made the entry on Monday morning – I bet his owners were chuffed about that wasted expense – and it appears (at this stage anyway to judge from the noises) that only one of L’Eau du Sud and Caldwell Potter (effectively in the same ownership) will run in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase at that track on Friday.
Quite why nine bookmakers have priced this up, then – it is [10/11] Caldwell Potter playing [11/8] L’Eau du Sud, with 5s bar – is something of a mystery.
They will run away from the first bet of note they take.
Or rather the first bet of note that is requested….
We had a discussion about the (non) merit of decimal odds on The Racing Room podcast on Monday morning – you can watch and listen on any of the Youtube, Spotify and Apple options, with the former link found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pm-EpMeov-c – but the AK team are probably pushing their luck with their [47/25] quote about Energumene here.
Actually, I better delete that, as we also did a section on attempted sackings on the pod, and it is probably not wise to try to get yourself binned off….(though I do have some history on that front).
Anyway, Jonbon is a best-priced [8/11] versus [5/2] Energumene, and I imagine the likely ground could have something to do with that.
The going at Ascot (see below) is currently good to soft and, if this assessment is accurate, it will probably be nearer good by Saturday, given a dry forecast and relatively warm temperatures for the time of year.
That will suit Jonbon just fine but I am not so sure about Energumene.
Don’t get me wrong, he should run – and the fact he has heavy ground form is largely historical – but will connections be tempted to swerve it given the horse’s problems in the last two years or so?
Timeform have him as racing on good to soft on the last four occasions though, so I am probably talking rot there.
It should be game on (the incredibly illiquid exchange market is giving no clues – though there is literally nothing on the back side for Jonbon as this goes live, which is quite staggering in itself), and Energumene is overpriced on form grounds alone in a match (and it is really is a match on all known evidence) between two top-class two-milers who have never been out of the first three.
At his best, the 11yo Energumene was rated as high as 176, and he has put in a number of efforts down the years to justify that assessment.
You could actually argue his best performance was in defeat in this race in 2022, when beaten a length by Shishkin.
He is now on a mark of 169 here (just 1lb shy of Jonbon) and you can’t really quibble with his comeback win at Cork, his first run since Punchestown in April 2023.
Well, you can a bit.
Sure, it was some way off his best, as he was getting 10lb off Banbridge and he was not sure to beat that rival when he unseated at the last, but of course Joseph O’Brien’s chaser didn’t do that formline any harm in the King George, even if the subsequent runs of those in behind have been pretty dismal.
I’d be of the opinion he has something to prove still and what you see is what you get with Jonbon, tops at [8/11] , including with AKBets.
One from one at this track, albeit over hurdles in 2021, he is the model of consistency (though his form in various wins has been a touch below par, as in the Shloer on his return) and he was at or near his best when winning the Tingle Creek last time.
There is one amusing element to this, though.
Apparently – and I appreciate this is hardly fresh news – one of the reasons his stablemate Lulamba has been supported for the Triumph Hurdle is some claim he kicked Jonbon out of the way in a recent gallop.
If true (and it may well be) does that mean Lulamba is a weapon, or is/was Jonbon under a cloud?
Don’t you just love gossip, true or false, so I thought I’d include it for shits and giggles.
By the way, there are only six in the race at this stage and Edwardstone and Unexpected Party could head to Windsor on Sunday, even if there is good, free money down to sixth at Ascot.
Back on Thursday morning.
(updated Wednesday morning for all bar Fakenham)
Going – Soft, good to soft in places (slight drizzle on Wednesday morning)
Going stick reading – 5.6
Weather: – Dry and 4-10 degrees during week
Course update: “Slight drizzle this morning. Forecast- 10c this morning and remaining warm throughout today and tomorrow. 4c at day break on Friday morning, 7c for racing with light cloud.”
Rails: Both the Winning post bend and the Marina bend are 4 yards off the inside line to provide fresh ground.
Going – Good to soft, soft in places
Going stick reading – Chase: 6.1; Hurdle 5.7
Weather: – Dry and 6-10 degrees
Course update: “Slight drizzle this morning. Forecast- 10c this morning and remaining warm throughout today and tomorrow. 4c at day break on Friday morning, 7c for racing with light cloud.”
Going – Standard
Weather: – Dry and 10-11 degrees
Stalls: 1m2f and 1m4f – Outside 2m – Inside Straight course – Centre
Course update and stalls: “A dry outlook for the week ahead. Highs of 10’C today Thursday highs of 7’C. Raceday looks dry with high of 8’C at this stage with a 5mph SSW breeze. Possible gusts of 20 mph.”
Going – Good to soft
Going stick reading – N/A
Weather: – Dry all week, 7-10 degrees
Course update: “Misty morning on Wednesday, temperatures are due to get to +10 due during the day today and Thursday. Mild and cloudy for Thursday, It is due to remain mainly dry through to Saturday. Saturday max temp 6c. For access to our live weather station and for the latest Going info please go to www.ascot.com/thegoing”
Rails: The rail on the Hurdle Course is positioned 10 yds out from its innermost position around both Paddock and Home bends. The rail on the Chase Course is positioned 8yds out around Paddock bend, 2 yds out around Swinley Bottom and 9yds out around Home bend. All steeple chase fences have false wings in place and are at their narrowest.
Going – Heavy
Going stick reading – N/A
Weather: – 5-9 degrees during week
Course update: “Tuesday damp and drizzly. Wednesday overcast with sunny spells. Temperatures 10°C on Thursday, with dawn temperatures above freezing. Outlook stays dry, with some sunny intervals towards the weekend. Grass frosts possible Friday & Saturday.”
Rails: “Hurdles are on the innermost position in the back-straight. Hurdles and Chases will run on separate bends after the Winning Post and on a shared bend out of the Back Straight. Hurdle bends out at each end of the Course. Chase bend out after Winning Post.”
Going – Good to soft (frozen in places)
Going stick reading – N/A
Weather: – Dry bar some possible light showers on Tuesday; 6-9 degrees all week
Course update: “Sunny. Have had 26 mm rain since 1st Jan. Since last Wed the ground has been frozen but Sun night no frost and thaw is happening. Forecast: temps start to increase from Mon during day and night. By Wed night above freezing and day +9. Dry week. Frost should not be a problem for raceday.”
Rails: Fresh ground whole way around on both chase and hurdle courses.
1.25pm Market Rasen: The Edgar Wallace, Nocte Volatus, Do Your Job
1.50pm Windsor: NONE but it is thought L’Eeau du Sud and Caldwell Potter (effectively in same ownership) will not take each other on.
2.10pm Newcastle: King Ottokar, Santorini Star, Dayzee
2.25pm Windsor: Sunday Soldier
2.35pm Market Rasen: Sam Brown, Chambard, Fortescue, First Lord Du Cuet (entered overnight on Tuesday),
3pm Windsor : Minella Missile, Nemean Lion, Bo Zenith, Impose Toi, Might I, Patriotik, Steel Ally, Take No Chances
3.10pm Market Rasen: Amelia’s Star, Chatty Girl
3.35pm Windsor: Nemean Lion, Steel Ally, Beat The Bat, Altobelli, Givemefive, Milldam, Hardy De Seuil, Court In The Act, Navajo Indy, Lively Citizen (entered overnight on Wednesday), Brendas Asking
1.40pm Ascot: Aston Martini, Brendas Asking, Take No Chances
1.55pm Haydock: Dedicated Hero, Derryhassen Paddy, Famous Liss, That’s Nice
2.15pm Ascot: Dibble Decker, Martator, Nocte Volatus, Tedley
NB: Arizona Cardinal also in early-closer on Jan 25
2.30pm Haydock: Bill Baxter, Chambard, Collectors Item, Gelino Bello, Mr Silver Lining, Sam Brown
NB: Richmond Lake and Trelawne also in early-closer on Jan 25
2.50pm Ascot: Altobelli, Aston Martini, Beat The Bat, Bo Zenith, Court In The Act, Dargiannini, Dibble Decker, Givemefive, Hardy Du Seuil, Herbiers, Illegal D’Ainay (due to run at Plumpton on Tuesday), Impose Toi, Jipcot, Kado De Joie, Lario, Might I, Minella Missile, Navajo Indy, Patriotik, Samuel Spade, Stoner’s Choice, Titan Discover, Typhoon Flyer, Wilful
3.05pm Haydock: Dans Le Vent, Deep Cave, Fonzerelli, Git Maker, Good Luck Charm, Jipcot, Kilbarry Hill, Lemoncello (entered overnight on Wednesday), Magical King, Nab Wood, Phantomofthepoints, Punta Del Este, The Lord Maid, Tune In A Box, Uncle Bert, Young Jack
3.32pm Ascot: Edwardstone, Unexpected Party
1.55pm Windsor: DoyoknowwhatImean, Dr TJ Eckleburg, Edwardstone, Herbiers, Martator, Prince Quali, The Famous Five, Unexpected Party
2.30pm Windsor: Dans Le Vent, Deep Cave, Gelino Bello, Git Maker, Good Luck Charm, Jipcot, Kilbarry Hill, Minella Missile, Patriotik, Phantomofthepoints, Punta Del Este, Samuel Spade, Stoner’s Choice, The Lord Maid, Titan Discovery, Tune In A Box, Uncle Bert, Wilful, Zanndabad
2.45pm Fakenham: Easy To Follow, Game Colours (entered overnight on Tuesday), Geturcuccion (entered overnight on Wednesday), Lindy Reilly, Sunday Soldier
3.05pm Windsor: NONE – but the PA are reporting (as at 3.56pm on Monday) Gordon Elliott as saying Gerri Colombe will NOT run here
3.20pm Fakenham: Miss Fedora (entered overnight at Plumpton)
3.40pm Windsor: Animal, Art Decco, Credo (entered overnight at Plumpton), Fortunate Man, Gold Clermont, Good Work, My Silver Lining, Northern Poet (entered overnight at Plumpton), Regatta De Blanc, Take Your Time, The Big Breakaway
NB: East Street also entered in an early closer on Jan 25
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