TONY CALVIN: TODAY on ITV – 18s, 16s and 12s chances to consider

1.15pm Cheltenham – Tough course opener but [15/2] French Ship is easy to see

I am going to be treading very lightly betting-wise this early in the National Hunt campaign, though I accept we have been officially on the go since late April – perhaps I should be having a daily smash-up on the Festival in March instead, like everyone else… – and Cheltenham’s 2025-26 season gets underway with a full field of 20 for this 2m4f handicap hurdle.

Hardly the easiest start for punters then.

I can fully see why French Ship is one of the market leaders at [15/2] though, as he was going well when coming down 3 out at Chepstow on his return – his jumping had been a bit sticky before that but he seemed to take it well enough before buckling/stumbling well after the obstacle – and he is clearly a lightly-raced 5yo with a lot of upside.

His mark of 128 looks very exploitable and he is the one that probably appeals as the most-likely winner, but his hurdling remains a concern, particularly in this 20-runner field where you don’t want to be continually on the back foot with little niggly. momentum-stopping mistakes.

I’ll sit this out in all probability (if I have a bet it will be French Ship), but Whatsupwithyou could also have some each-way upside at 25s, even though he is the profile polar opposite of Friend Ship as an 11yo.

But an 11yo with plenty of good runs to his name here, however.

Oh, and keep an eye out for general 20s chance Minella Missile. You sense his mark of 127 could be exploited sooner rather than later if/when they get him right; he was a 138-rated Grade 2 winner after all, just five starts ago.

If he is primed, the late market could tell all.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: East India Express is the main mover in this. We don’t know how forward Nicky Henderson’s horses are because he has had so few runners, but East India Express now ranges from just [7/2] to [5/1], having been a 7s and [15/2] poke.

1.33pm Doncaster – Korker too big at 16s, with the fancy prices about Sophia’s Starlight long gone

As heavy ground and a going stick reading of 4.4 (that is exceptionally low for the track) suggests, it is going to be incredibly testing at Doncaster.

When I first looked at this race on Wednesday afternoon, two immediately interested me, for all, as with most of these sprint handicaps, you can make a case for each of the 12 at their respective prices.

It is simply the nature of these “your turn” contests.

It was scarcely believable (well, that may be pushing it a touch) to see that one bookmaking organisation originally put Monday’s winner Sophia’s Starlight in at 16s here, for all she carries a 5lb penalty for that made all-success at Pontefract, following up her 2024 victory in that race.

This will be far tougher clearly, but she has been competitive off higher marks than this in the past, one of her best efforts came over course and distance on soft ground in the Wentworth Stakes here last November, and there isn’t a lot of pace pressure against her in this (see below).

I see that she has also been left in a 5f race on Saturday, but we are obviously into money-back territory now if she doesn’t run.

Even the revised 9s and 8s is fair – and I have ensured I don’t lose if she wins – but Korker hasn’t shifted from his opening price of 16s and he makes marginally more appeal at the current odds.

One nagging doubt is whether the combination of 6f on ground this deep will drain his stamina, but he stays the trip well and handles heavy just dandy, so hopefully that isn’t a factor.

And he comes here in excellent form after a third of 19 in the uber-competitive Coral Sprint Trophy at York 13 days ago, for which he was raised 1lb.

That still leaves him off an 8lb lower mark from which he started the season and I am struggling to see why he is as big as 16s and 14s, for all this race has depth.

I’ve no idea how good 5lb claimer Jack Nicholls is (a 10 per cent strike rate this season is okay), but if he is competent enough there is no doubting 5lb off in this ground is a plus.

Expect him to start slowly, as per usual, and finish well.

Very well against stopping horses, hopefully.

Play it how you want and where you can, but 16s win-only could be the best call, but I have had a bit on the exchange win-only and each-way.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: Not a great deal going on here. Fine Interview has hardened into the general [4/1] favourite, Sophia’s Starlight has been clipped into 6s and Korker is now basically 10s across the board.

1.50pm Cheltenham – Money stays in the pocket or account here

A seven-runner 2m novices’ chase and a very tricky one to call.

I won’t be having a bet but, rather boringly, I’d probably agree with Country Mile and King Of Kingsfield topping the market.

The latter always promised to be a very good hurdler but there are obvious signs that chasing could be his game (making a man of him etc) and he saw his race out very well when winning a Grade 3 at Punchestown last time.

But he has an 8lb penalty against similarly promising sorts, so am I going to part with some cash?

No bet.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: Alnilam opened up at [9/2] and 4s on Wednesday, and is now 3s best. In fact, he is favourite in most places and as low as [9/4].

2.08pm Doncaster – 2yos with have to get down and dirty in this ground

This is obviously a modest ITV filler and three unraced horses, all from top, in-form yards, aren’t going to know what has hit them here, making their 2yos debuts in this ground.

Unless one wins on the Eric Idle/Billy Idol (Dan Barber favours the latter, I believe), they are going to have to get down and dirty to be winning this for the first time in their lives.

My natural inclination would be to side with those with experience in these conditions, and Arbaawy at 4s and El Loco at 16s may not be bad prices, but do you really want to be betting 2yos in the slop?

Na.

9am BETTING UPDATE: No early moves of any note for the three newcomers and any one of four could go off favourite here, including Arbaawy.

2.25pm Cheltenham – Norman Fletcher to get us out of jail (sorry , but couldn’t get the porridge reference to work)

Norman Fletcher could be a decent each-way bet at [12/1] and 11s here.

Or win if you’d prefer.

Up to you.

But back him.

A decent novice hurdler two seasons ago, he made a good start to the last campaign when a ¾ length second to Impero (winner three times since and now rated 17lb higher) in this very race – he was a bit unlucky there after meeting traffic problems after the second-last – and he then went on to win well at Huntingdon and finish third at Doncaster.

He won that Huntingdon race off by three lengths off 123 and he wasn’t beaten far off 129 at Donny, and he races off 123 again here (in fact, he is due to go down another 1lb in the future) after a lack-lustre series of outings since, though he did run okay here in April.

His reappearance run from the front (not his usual run-style) in the Welsh Champion Hurdle was also not all bad either (lasted until faltering between the final two), and it may have simply been used as a springboard to another crack at this contest and to right last year’s wrong, perhaps under a less aggressive ride here.

The stable is in great form, and 12s and 11s looks a decent price, and the bet of the day, with the bulk of the rain missing another plus to his chance.

Let’s hope they don’t get too much rain on Thursday afternoon (looks like they have had 3mm so far according to the live rain gauge, which is not always accurate at Cheltenham), though I guess he has won on heavy and run well in defeat on it too, so he can probably handle whatever is thrown at him from up above.

Cavern Club is a NR here (going). There will be a 10p Rule 4, maybe 15p in some places.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: Norman Fletcher has been the main mover and has halved (well, not mathematically) in price from 12s to 6s favourite, a price available with AKBets. Rubber Ball is another who has been popular in the early Phoney War and is now just 7s tops.

3pm Cheltenham – I hear Murphy and Bowen are in okay form

Willie Mullins probably has at least 10 at home that could take this 2m Grade 2 novices’ hurdle, as it isn’t a great race in terms of ratings, but it is choc-full of 12 promising youngsters, 11 of whom have won.

It’s not a race in which you can bet with any confidence in – well, I can’t anyway – but I thought the [17/2] and 8s about Sir Galahad was fair given Cheltenham missed the bulk of the forecast rain.

This horse looks best on decent ground he put up a career-best when second off a mark of 126 at Market Rasen last time.

For all the winner was beaten next time (though running well enough in defeat), I take the view that was strong form for the grade and I like horses in novices’ company who have cut their teeth in handicaps, as he has done on three occasions.

The astonishing form of the trainer and jockey (fit to ride today after being stood down by the Fontwell stewards on Thursday after a fall) needs no further big-up here, and 8s+ is a fair enough wager, if not a big or confident one.

I may have a very small bet on him.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: Not a great deal going on but Sir Galahad now ranges from 5s to 7s. AKBets are top price about the top two, Un Sens A La Vie and Run For Mahler at [13/8] and [9/2] respectively.

3.18pm Doncaster – Rhoscolyn still too big at 18s and 16s

Rhoscolyn looks the pick of the prices here at 18s and the general 16s, the 20s having been taken this morning by some shrewd souls.

Several have more obvious claims, of which 6s poke Grey’s Monument has the most appeal, but Rhoscolyn looks overpriced in the conditions.

The possible negatives are that 5lb claimer Cian Horgan doesn’t have the greatest stats (4 per cent this season after 145 rides, but that is a crude metric and at least he has ridden this horse three times) and the horse himself is not in the greatest nick.

But because of that he can race off a mark just 96, back to the same level that he beat Ebt’s Guard a length off over 1m in the soft at Goodwood just five starts ago.

The runner-up is now rated 10lb higher, so that’s a generous reduction for the selection in a short space of time.

This horse loves the ground and his proven stamina over further is surely a big positive racing over 7f in these stamina-sapping conditions.

You have to fear plenty, but the more accessible 16s is simply too big about the 7yo.

As with Korker, play it how you want and where you can, but 16s win-only could be the best call again. And I wouldn’t be going mad, stakes-wise.

These handicappers can be total blow-out merchants, and this ground will be exceptionally hard work

God Of War is a NR as at 6.42am (going)

BETTING UPDATE: Again, a static market, with all eyes presumably on Cheltenham. And not many on there at the moment, it seems.

3.35pm Cheltenham – Could Chester’s dream run continue? Probably not but he has a chance

I feel a bit shitty so I’m off to bed again shortly, so I won’t keep you long here.

I found it a very tricky race anyway, not least from a pace angle, as I counted six possible forward-goers.

We have usual Cheltenham suspects in here like Calico, Matata, Unexpected Party and Third Time Lucki, but Uncle Phil catches the eye with Harry Cobden on board.

The horse has joined first-season trainer Chester Williams from Willie Mullins, and Williams has had a dream start, winning with his first two runners.

He got this horse for a mere 14,000 guineas in April, which looked a fair punt for the 8yo.

Sure, he lost his form for Mullins but a mark of 145 looks feasible on his made-all win in the Dan and Joan Moore and 12s could be a half-decent price.

But it is instantly resistible at a mere 12s in truth against these proven hard-knocking Cheltenham regulars, and maybe Williams has a longer-term plan for the horse.

Not that I’d know.

BETTING UPDATE 9am: Pretty quiet all around in truth, including here. Jasko Des Dames is strong enough at [5/2], including with your host, though if he moves it’ll likely be to [11/4] and not [9/4]. Calico is weak at [9/2] and Uncle Phil is friendless at 25s.

BETS

Korker at [16/1] in 1.33pm at Doncaster ( I have also played Sophia’s Starlight)

Norman Fletcher at [12/1] or [11/1] in 2.25pm at Cheltenham

Rhoscolyn at [16/1] in 3.18pm at Doncaster (take the 18s in a place if you can)

GOING AND WEATHER DETAILS

CHELTENHAM

GOING – Good to soft 

GOING STICK: 5.3, Friday 6.30am (was 6.2 Thursday 1.30pm)

(2m4f races will be run on the Round Course)

Rails: Chase +4y ; Hurdle +2y

Friday morning course update: 10mm rain on Sunday and 8mm on Monday. Dry on Tuesday and through the day on Wednesday. 4.5mm overnight (to 06:30) and then a further 4mm during the afternoon on Thursday. Showers possible on Friday afternoon (1-2mm)

Weather:  1mm today

Watering: Watering commenced in August (for grass recovery) and continued to w/c 13th October. Selective watering finished on Friday (17th).

DONCASTER

GOING – Soft, heavy in places

GOING STICK: 4.9, Friday, 7.30am (was 4.4, Thursday , 7.30am)

Soil Moisture 48.8%

Rails: Round Course – Fresh ground which is 7yds off the innermost line for all round races

• Race 6: Race distance is now +21y to 1m 2f 64y

Stalls: Straight – Centre; Round – Inner

Friday morning course update: 8mm rain Sunday. 0.2mm Monday 1.4mm Tuesday 0.4mm Wednesday 7.2mm Thursday Friday – mainly dry with sunny spells and a stiff westerly breeze. Small chance of showers Friday evening but nothing serious. 12C Track verti-drained since St Leger Festival

Weather: Dry, possibility of light shower

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed)

Excellent: Olly Murphy (seven consecutive winners in last 48 hours, and another success after an unseat)

Good: Hamad Al Jehani (very good), William Haggas, Katie Scott, Emma Lavelle (very good – in fact only second to Olly Murphy), Fergal O’Brien, Charlie Longsdon, Paul Nicholls (14-1 winner on Thursday),  Neil King, Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies (another 12-1 winner on Wednesday, and more of the same on Thursday – so very good), Chris Gordon, Alastair Ralph (very good), Robert Stephens, Chester Williams (two from two), Henry de Bromhead, Karl Burke, Grant Tuer, Roger Varian, Gordon Elliott, Tony Mullins (small sample but two winners)

Fair: Richard Fahey, John Butler, Eve Johnson Houghton, Ralph Beckett, James Owen, Ben Pauling (11-2 winner on Thursday), David Pipe, Christian Williams, Dan Skelton, Hobbs and White, Evan Williams, Patrick Neville (very small sample),  Jane Williams, Charles Byrnes, Anthony Honeyball (maybe nearer good), Russell and Scudamore, Gavin Cromwell, Tim Easterby

Moderate: Paul Attwater, Ruth Carr (though a recent winner), John and Sean Quinn, Donald McCain, Jack Jones, Julie Camacho (though a 12-1 winner), David Simcock, David O’Meara, Tom Clover (though an 18-1 chance beaten a short-head), John McConnell (but he does target these early Cheltenham meetings), Dominic Ffrench Davis, Matt Sheppard (smallish sample)

Don’t know: James Ferguson, Nicky Henderson, Cian Collins, Tom Symonds, Jake Coulson, Sam Thomas (one two runners; one winner)