By Tony Calvin - 20 August 2024
Now, admittedly, I wouldn’t be a glass half-full type, so I can’t readily recall the last time I was so excited by a race like I am about Wednesday’s Juddmonte at York.
I feel almost dirty admitting it.
Okay, we are not dealing with top-notchers here, as the highest-rated rival to City Of Troy is on a mere 120 – see, I just can’t do unquestioning positivity, sorry – but we have some serious depth to the contest, and I personally wouldn’t be in a rush to back the favourite at [6/4].
Genuinely.
And, with 13 runners and no obvious pace if Hans Andersen (blinkered for the first time) misses the kick as he did in the King George last time and can’t rescue the situation over this shorter trip, it could well be a messy race tactically too, with the odd hard luck story thrown in.
In summary, it promises to be an absolute belter, and I can’t wait.
For all he was an outstanding 2yo and great in the Derby, for some reason I am not totally sold on City Of Troy as a superstar.
Especially at the price. This is by some distance the deepest race he has been involved in.
That Guineas blow-out may have been just a one-off blip, but I thought he was underwhelming in the Eclipse.
I appreciate Ryan Moore blamed himself there and the runner-up Al Riffa won his Group 1 in Germany last time in commanding fashion, but I am not having a 2-length defeat of Ghostwriter in third presenting a scary level of form to this impressive cast-list.
Of course, he may sluice up and prove Aidan Brien correct in asserting he is the best horse he has trained (version number 37) but everything in this sport is about odds – as far as I am concerned anyway – and a top price of [5/4] in three spots in the marketplace is definitely not doing it for me.
In fact, if I were a bookmaker, I’d be more than happy to lay him at [6/4] if needed – bearing in mind what I have written above, I’d go a bit higher if needed – and have the field running for me at [4/6], and that is the primary way I will play the race myself.
I don’t tip at short prices, let alone at odds-on, so that is something you have to decide for yourself if you want to follow suit.
I’ll be looking to lay City Of Troy at around 3s-on in the place market too, as I can see a few of these giving him plenty to contend with up the York straight.
And that actually presents a problem for me, as finding an each-way angle, three places, in an effective, hugely competitive 12-runner race (I am ignoring Hans Andersen) is not easy.
Take away the favourite, and the likely pacemaker, and we are looking at 11 horses rated within 8lb of each other, with the Japanese horse Durezza the highest-rated on 120, and the aforementioned Ghostwriter lowest on 112.
Maybe uber-impressive King Edward VII Stakes winner Calandagan is possibly being a touch -dismissed in the betting at a high of 7s – and quite what the bookmakers were doing offering Bluestocking at 16s and 14s first thing on Monday morning is anyone’s guess (I can only assume they didn’t update their ante-post prices), and she is now a realistic 8s – but I didn’t see an obvious, attractive each way play.
At first, anyway. But then the price disappeared on Tuesday morning, so it was back to square one.
The more I looked at it, the more I thought the other French horse, Zarakem, was undoubtedly overpriced at 16s in three places (general 14s), as the form of his Prince Of Wales’s Stakes second is probably a match for any of these, bar the favourite’s Derby win.
But others clearly agreed, as the 16s went early on Tuesday morning and now there is only one spot of 14s, with a general price of 12s and 11s more representative.
I’m not sure if I will back him now, so for the time being I’ll be simply looking to get the favourite beaten, and hopefully out of the frame for a real Brucey Bonus.
That’ll be a good game, good game.
Bold Optimist would be a fitting winner of the opening 22-runner sprint handicap, as these races are impossible to solve most of the time.
They are all handicapped to feature at their best, and the pace map doesn’t give too many clues, with speed all over the track (see below).
But the aforementioned Bold Optimist, a general [18/1] chance – the 20s was taken on Monday – possibly stands out from the crowd for a few reasons.
I had never heard of trainer Daniel McLoughlin for one, and little wonder, as he had only five individual runners on the Flat in Ireland in 2024.
But he has won with two – Bold Optimist and Duckadilly – so he isn’t too shoddy and his runner here did well to win at the Curragh on fast ground last time, getting up close home after racing on the wing, stands side.
That was only his 10th start, and the lightly-raced 4yo looks an improving model.
He raced from 9lb out of the handicap when a good fifth three starts ago, he possibly did too much too soon when fourth next time, and then he posted a career-best when winning last time.
They discarded his usual cheekpieces that day (left off again here) and he beat an in-form horse there, with a subsequent, empathic winner in third.
His trainer explained afterwards that race: “I took the cheekpieces off him as the last day it wasn’t until horses went past him that they caught his eye and he came back at them at the line”.
He is just 3lb higher here and he is drawn alongside speedster Democracy Dilemma in three, so he could be well berthed in four, for all the pace could develop anywhere here.
I rarely play in sprint handicaps but I am going to have a nibble on him at [18/1], available in nine places on the Oddschecker grid, including with AKBets.
If the trainer is right about the headgear, then he could have untapped potential, allied to the solid win last time.
Kylian, who ran much better at Ascot last time after being gelded, would be a decent alternative at 16s (available in eight places), but I am not going in here two-handed here, for all I might have a small saver on him myself.
He is also another potential pace angle, coming out of stall five, next to the selection, so hopefully that is a plus.
Oh, and by the way, Irish Nectar was balloted out of this race, so make sure you get your money back if you backed that one.
When The Lion In Winter won on his debut, I don’t think many would have expected him not to go off favourite next time, but that is one of the obvious downsides of making snap judgements.
Just wait until the next race, see what they are up against, and what price they are, before going overboard.
To be fair, he did look a very smart prospect indeed when coming late to win at the Curragh from experienced horses (the third, and stablemate, Ides Of March, has won well since).
But Ruling Court heads the market and this £2,300,000 euros breeze-up purchase was visually even more impressive when winning on his debut at Sandown.
This looks some match-up, further underlined by the fact the rest of the field are all winners, and it is 18s bar two if you shop around, including with AKBets.
A race to savour, rather than devour from a betting point of view, though it must be said the front two are definitely priced up on style (and their connections) over substance – they are not outstanding form-wise or on the clock, for all they are the height of sexiness – and bookmakers may get a result, with so many similarly unexposed horses in opposition.
Combined, at best prices, they take out 80 per cent of the market, and the layers may sense an opportunity.
Just the six runners in the Great Voltigeur. Mind you, there were only eight at the five-day stage, including the supplemented Los Angeles, so the race has stood up as well as could have been expected.
Los Angeles is the [6/4] favourite here – in one place, anyway – and that looks fair enough, even if he has a 5lb penalty for his Irish Derby success.
However, at the weights, King’s Gambit actually comes out best on official figures and I’d marginally prefer him of the two at [9/4] if I was having a bet in the race.
Which I am not. Even that [9/4] is a squeezed price, the [5/2] being taken on Monday. In fact, the [9/4] is coming under pressure.
King’s Gambit made the running on sufferance in a race with no pace here over an extended 1m2f last time and you’d expect him to take a lead from the forward-going Euphoric.
However, he does have his stamina to prove – and the stable is hardly in stellar form, too – and staying is the favourite’s strong suit, and Los Angeles’ two stablemates will be looking to make this a searching test. And Illinois is a Queen’s Vase winner with serious form claims too, despite a 3lb penalty for that Royal Ascot win.
Supporters of Calandagan will be looking for a decent show from 14s poke Space Legend, put firmly in his place by the French horse at Ascot before finishing last of four at Newmarket’s strange July course.
Again, watch and learn, without the need to dip into your pockets.
If you are into backing horses who were unlucky last time, then Knightswood must be your poster boy.
Albeit one who is wearing thin on the wall.
Everyone saw what a troubled run he got at Goodwood last time – the third time he should have gone very close to winning this season, after similar runs at Doncaster and Haydock, and he also caught the eye at Newmarket two starts ago, too – but, to be fair, I was surprised to see him open up as big as 11s and a general 10s on Thursday.
I actually thought that was very fair. The 10s in five places was taken on Tuesday morning, swiftly followed by all the 9s.
Like many from this yard though – and the bookmakers know this, hence the seeming generosity – he has two ways of running and he is into unknown territory as regards the 2m trip. With an extra 56 yards thrown in for good measure. I didn’t see a lot of pace in this race at all, though.
It is just a matter of whether the shortening 8s compensates for the doubts.
I should have mentioned the ground at York is currently good to firm – they watered 2mm on Monday night, and they may do the same on Tuesday evening – and that is what initially put me off having a pop on Robert Johnson at [28/1].
He didn’t look entirely at ease on the quick ground on his debut for Tracy Waggott at Goodwood last time (Timeform called it firm), and all his better efforts have been with a bit of dig in the ground.
And he did blow out on good to firm when a [5/1] chance in this race, off 1lb higher mark than this, last season.
Against that, he has won twice on going Timeform called good to firm, and Monday’s watering (and a 0.5mm sprinkle of rain) will hopefully have taken a bit of sting out of the ground. It certainly won’t be as quick as Goodwood anyway.
This is also a horse who also danced in over course and distance last July, and the small Waggott stable have had a winner and [25/1] and [11/1] seconds recently.
I am happy to have a small-stakes bet on him at a generally available [28/1], available in seven places, including with AKBets.
I have decided to leave Knightswood alone. He is only 8s now, and he could be one of those horses that draws you when you know they shouldn’t.
To have one bet in a 5f sprint handicap could be regarded as misfortune, to have two in a day could be called carelessness, to wilfully misquote Oscar Wilde.
I don’t know what three is, but it probably ain’t good.
However, I must admit to being very tempted by Midnight Affair at a generally available 14s here, with nine firms, even if I am slightly concerned about the pace in the race developing away from his draw in two.
She has been pretty disappointing since being sent off at 9s for the Queen Mary last season (her opening two efforts over this 5f trip against Soprano, and her Hilary Needler defeat of Flora Of Bermuda, now read very well indeed) but she showed a lot more when just touched off in a bunch finish at Nottingham last Tuesday.
The handicapper hasn’t re-assessed her for that run yet (she can only go up a pound of two, though) but crucially she handles quick ground well and a mark of 80 looks exploitable.
And if the first-time visor improves her, it really is game on.
Richard Fahey doesn’t have a great record with a visor switch but Midnight Affair’s full sister (and one-time 110-rated) Rhythm Master posted her best efforts in that headgear, so that is a positive of sorts.
And maybe the switch back to 5f will suit her, too.
I have to take my chances win-only at 14s.
My personal back-up will be Got To Love A Grey, who is the most likely leader from stall 11. And, at 8s, available in seven places, I’m happy to tip her, too.
Winner of the Marygate on quick ground here last May, she was rated 100 after some good efforts in France earlier in the campaign (which included a Listed race win on official heavy), and she bounced back to form with a second to Shagraan (runs in the opener) at Goodwood last time.
She went up 2lb for that run (up to 96), but the third won well at Windsor last week and I think she is on a decent mark, with the prospect of a solo on the front end an obvious further tick.
Both of the selections are joint-top with AKBets.
It is [7/1] the field if you shop around for this 17-runner nursery and little wonder why. It looks impossible and I am not in the slightest bit interested in getting involved.
Put a gun to my head – and I’d need confirmation it was loaded – and maybe 10s poke Moving Force would be the two words that would fall out of my mouth.
But they would be retracted once the shooter was put down.
Four relatively big-priced darts on the day then, to small money, but hopefully one hits the bullseye.
Good luck.
BETS
Bold Optimist at [18/1] win-only in 1.50pm. Available in nine places, including with AKBets.
Robert Johnson at [28/1] win-only in 4.10pm. Available in seven places, including with AKBets
Midnight Affair at [14/1] win-only in 4.45pm. Available in nine places, including with AKBets.
Got To Love A Grey at [8/1] win-only in 4.45pm. Available in seven places, including with AKBets,
GOING/WEATHER
YORK
GOING: Good to firm
GOING STICK: 7.3 at 6am Tuesday
WEATHER: Dry Tuesday and Wednesday
WATERING: “Saturday night 2mm on North and Home bend making a total irrigation of 6mm to North and Home bend and 4mm elsewhere applied in last 7 days .2mm Monday.”
FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR (for all York races)
Aidan O’Brien blinkers 50-311 since 2009
Richard Fahey visor 11-184 (2009)
Kevin Ryan cheekpieces 16-160 (2016)
BALLOTED OUT/SUPPLEMENTED
BALLOTED OUT (money back for ante-post punters)
1.50pm – Irish Nectar
SUPPLEMENTED: Los Angeles in Great Voltigeur
PACE MAPS (for all York races)
1.50pm York: Democracy Dilemma (stall 3), Jordan Electrics (7), Silky Wilkie (17), Pilgrim (20), Tees Spirit (16), Shagraan (8), Kylian (5), We Never Stop (15), One Night Stand (10), Never Dark (11), Copper Knight (9), Looking For Lynda (2)
2.25pm York (little evidence to go on): Our Terms, Yaroogh
3.00pm York: Euphoric (King’s Gambit made it last time but unlikely pace angle here)
3.35pm York: Hans Andersen (could be interesting if he fluffs start again as no obvious pace elsewhere)
4.10pm York: Great Bedwyn?, Bringbackmemories?
4.45pm York: Got To Love A Grey (11), Jumbeau? (14) , Enchanting? (10), Boadicia? (7), Alcazan? (8), (few other prominent racers)
5.20pm York: Rokuni, Invited?, Far Above The Law, Cugini?
TRAINERFORM (does not include Tuesday’s results; for all York races)
Excellent: William Haggas, Steph Hollinshead (small sample), Michael Bell, Aidan O’Brien, Ralph Beckett, Owen Burrows, Jack Channon
Good: Ben Haslam, Daniel McLoughlin (two recent runners, one winner, and that is his runner in the opener), F-H Graffard, Karl Burke, John and Thady Gosden, Alan King, David O’Meara, Roger Teal (few runners but very good form), Ed Bethell, Tom Clover, Jim Goldie, William Knight, Richard Spencer (very good in fact, another winner on Monday)
Fair: Tracy Waggott, Mick Appleby (could do with a winner), Nigel Tinkler, Adrian Nicholls, Geoff Oldroyd (very few runners), Archie Watson, Scott Dixon, Hugo Palmer, Harry Eustace (could do with a winner), J Reynier, Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole. John Butler, Charlie Fellowes, Eve Johnson Houghton, Alice Haynes (probably more moderate), Bryan Smart (arguably more good even if no winners), Roger Varian, David and Nicola Barron, Andrew Balding, James Fanshawe, Richard Fahey, Richard Hannon, Iain Jardine (borderline good), John and Sean Quinn, Tim Easterby, James Owen
Moderate: Robert Cowell, Raphael Freire (very few runners, though), Charlie Appleby (moderate for him), Harry Charlton (could do with a winner), Gordon Elliott, Karen Jewell, Clive Cox (though couple of near misses), Charlie Johnston (massive numbers of runners, so obviously a few are running well and a winner on Monday), Kevin Ryan, Michael and David Easterby, Lucinda Russell
No Idea: Tomohito Ozeki, P F O’Donnell (very few runners in 2024)
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