TONY CALVIN: Four big-priced horses well worth a look on an action-packed Saturday

Kelso suffering with 11.10am start

With 11 ITV races on Saturday, I’ll ditch the pontificating intro this week, so let’s crack on.

Actually, spare a thought for Kelso and their racegoers on Saturday.

Because of this ridiculous Premier Racing initiative (I thought it had been ditched, as it has seemingly been a free-for-all in recent weeks on Saturday afternoons), they start at 11.10am on Saturday morning.

Really?

1.09pm Wincanton – 7/4 Tedley very much the one to beat

Wincanton relented and put 6mm down on Thursday to maintain good ground (see below for details), which is fair enough in the face of a dry spell. And they followed up with more watering on Friday. Details are below.

They’ve got watered good ground – as Exeter had good ground on Friday, as evidenced by the times – and have given full details for punters (including an updated going stick), so the job’s a good ‘un.

Just the five runners for this 2m4f conditional’ jockeys handicap chase and I am not beating myself up for not having heard of one of the riders before.

Chad Bament has only had 11 rides in his career but he won on the stable’s Juggernaut at Stratford recently and he is allowed to claim 8lb here as he is attached to the yard.

He rides Dreaming Blue here, who I have down as one of the likely forward-goers along with Duke Of Luckley, but I agree with the betting that last Saturday’s Wetherby winner Tedley, a general [7/4] chance, is the one to beat here.

He has gone up 6lb for that win but he did that well in a good time (and the third was a further 10 lengths away) and he will be hard to beat if he jumps as well again for Jamie Brace (claims just 3lb here along with Ben Bromley) once again.

1.20pm Doncaster – 10/1 Ten Bob Tony is the tempter in here

The ground hasn’t dried all week and it is soft here.

The official ratings point to Ten Bob Tony as being overpriced at 10s (in three places) – the 12s was taken overnight – and I’d have to agree.

It’s just a matter if I agree financially.

And, after much deliberation, I have decided that I do. Take the 10s.

All his best form has come over 7f and 1m, but the ground here will be a leveller (it is soft, but it may ride a lot deeper) and there is plenty of pace on here, so he could be a dangerous late closer.

And his 1/2-length second to Topgear over 7f at Longchamp two starts ago is a form match for any of these.

He wants it soft, by the looks of it, and he didn’t fare badly behind the same winner – who ran and won like one of those electrocuted horses in A View To A Kill – on better ground at Newmarket last time.

If you want a bet then Ten Bob Tony at double figures should be your port of call.

He made all when winning over 7f in the soft at Salisbury last October – so I actually wouildn’t mind a similarly prominent ride here, rather than waiting tactics – and, looking back at the replay, he may have beaten Topgear two starts ago if getting a run sooner.

Thunderbear is a dangerous floater at 14s.

1.30pm Aintree – 9/2 Harbour Lake remains the premier lean

They have been watering here, and it is currently a mix of good and good to soft. See below for watering details, but they put down 5mm on Thursday and again on Friday, even though the ground wasn’t even described as good.

With all four runners qualifying for the final at Newbury on Thursday, we have another Pertemps qualifier here.

Harbour Lake appealed most at 7s in the ante-post market and he probably remains my premier lean here, even though he is into a general [9/2] and 4s now.

He basically looks very solid.

He goes well when fresh, he ended last season in good form, he has gone well at this track before and good and soft ground comes alike, so the watering can can leak as much as it wants, though I’d prefer good for him.

I may have a few quid on him at [9/2] but it is not a strong enough opinion to get involved too heavily, especially as we are obviously guessing as to his state of readiness, which we are not doing with his main market rival, Guard The Moon.

1.45pm Wincanton – A tough race but 11/2 Pretending is the right favourite

As expected, the numbers for this 2m5f+ mares handicap hurdle, run in memory of local Richard Barber, stood up very well.

And it is a very tricky puzzle to solve.

I was pulled this way and that when studying this race, and every one of the horses has something going for it, once the prices are factored in.

And when you cannot rule out any of the 14 runners, it is time to admit defeat and move on, though I would agree that Pretending is the right favourite at [11/2], especially with the yard in such good nick, and I’d be wary of All The Glory too, back amongst her own sex again.

***********UPDATE ON ALL THE GLORY PRICE MOVEMENTS ON FRIDAY***************

There was some weird opposition from two firms (effectively the same bookmaking outfit) towards All The Glory on Friday afternoon.

The mare was trading at 7s and 8s in two places, but then all of a sudden she was pushed straight out to 25s and 22s, which of course provided an arb ripple in the market. All firms then pushed her out and then she hit 12s elsewhere, and traded as high as [18.5] on the exchange.

We aren’t talking the usual pennies on a Friday afternoon here, either. For example, £1,053.21 was traded at 15.0 alone.

The horse is now the biggest mover in this race , with one firm (the one who went 25s) now joint-biggest at [7/1], and she is 8.2 on the exchange and as short as 6s elsewhere.

Curious, indeed.

It’d be interesting if one of the TV channels were to ask the firm (s) their reasoning here.

The added curiosity is that the firm who went 25s obviously knew what they were doing as they went 25s, 20s, 18s, 14s, 12s, 10s – not 25s to 10s in one fell swoop, as would be the norm in these circumstances when you presumably take on a fair liability the day before – and presumably laid the best price all the way down.

It may have been a mistake (ie they changed the price of the wrong horse, and there were some other price movements on others at the same time) – and that may be the most logical explanation –  but, if that’s the case, then no way should the price have just been steadily clipped, as it was.

You’d surely immediately slash to it even beyond a price (i.e. go bottom price) you’d be happy to lay it at.

Indeed, if it was a mistake, you’d surely void the bets as a palp, no? And I don’t believe that has happened yet.

Anyway, strange.

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2.05pm Aintree – 14/1 Grey Diamond makes most appeal

The dangerous dead-eight in here, so each-way punters watch out.

Grey Diamond and El Borracho are both available at 14s (albeit in only one place), and they would interest me most.

Preference would be for Grey Diamond for pretty much the reasons I outlined when I mentioned him in my ante-post column on Tuesday (when he was 25s).

He is back down to a mark of just 124, having been as high as 142 last year, and he ran okay (to a point) off 127 last time out at Wetherby.

He has finished fifth in a Red Rum here in the past, and good/good to soft ground suits him well.

I suspect he will find one or two of these younger rivals too good, but I do think he is overpriced a touch at 14s if you want an interest.

2.23pm Wincanton – 4/1 Soul Icon the one to beat as it stands

A rare treat.

A novices’ chase that offers each way 1,2 betting – at the moment, anyway.

It did amuse me when Racing TV’s Andy Stephens pointed out that one of the runners, the 10yo Glynn, finished second in a veterans’ race here last time and now finds himself running in the Rising Stars!

He is not out of this race by any means but a few people will be disappointed if the horse half his age, Handstands, doesn’t go close on his chasing debut. He is the [2/1] jolly, with the bigger prices about him being taken through Thursday.

And that 2s is going, even though the trends’ boys will tell you chasing and seasonal debutants have a woeful record in this race.

The point winner obviously lacks chasing experience and the solid one in here looks to be Soul Icon, both on form and on the clock, after a cracking second in the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in July.

The [4/1] knocking about for him – the [9/2] was taken on Thursday – looks the best bet in the race if you want one.

I can leave it alone myself.

2.40pm Aintree – 22/1 Richmond Lake worth a bet

It was pretty much [7/1] co-favourites of five when I first started looking at this race on Thursday – King Turgeon, Percussion, Frero Banbou, Latenightpass and Sure Touch – and of course you can see any of those winning this.

Well, maybe not ole Frero, but he is mightily well weighted…..

However, I was hoping Richmond Lake would be confirmed for the race, and he has been, so I am willing to take a chance on him at [22/1] in a place and the general 20s.

He ran a bit better than the formbook suggests when a 50s chance in the Topham here last time, given a patient ride but being rushed up to take contention after the third-last before promptly making a mistake at the next.

It certainly didn’t cost him any sort of a place chance but the run was better than the bare form looks and, in any case, I think he was pretty much of a spent force last season after winning on the Mildmay course here last December.

It was absolutely wretched, heavy ground that day, barely raceable – I seem to remember the going stick reading being stupidly low – and it left its mark.

But the upside is that he is down to the same mark as when winning that Aintree handicap by 14 lengths, and he won first time out in 2021 and 2023. He comes to hand early, it seems, as he won second time up in the 2022-23 season.

The stable could be in much better nick and the formbook suggests he may want it softer, but I am happy to take the chance at the price.

I suspect the National course will have been well-watered.

Oh, and Harper’s Brook has his first start for Dan Skelton here….

2.55pm Wincanton – 5/1 Aspire Tower remains the overpriced one

We lost Nemean Lion and Lump Sum at the overnight stage, and still last year’s winner Rubaud is still pretty much the same price that he was earlier in the week at evens.

I am not too surprised as he was the one horse in the ante-post market sure to turn up here, but he faces a stiff enough test now he has, in spite of those two defections.

And he may not get his own way out in front, too.

Furthermore, he is officially rated 1lb inferior to Brentford Hope and Aspire Tower, and he has to give those two rivals 6lb.

I don’t think this is a race you can be too bullish about but I wrote that Aspire Tower was the most attractively priced at 8s on Tuesday, and I’d stand by that assessment now he trades at [5/1]. The [13/2] in a place was unsurprisingly clipped in on Thursday, and the 5s is coming under pressure as I publish this.

A one-time 160-rated chaser, he won on his return to hurdles at Punchestown last time and he could look to out-stay the favourite with a forcing ride.

Then again, if he does, then that could play into the hands of a patiently-ridden Brentford Hope, though there have been some suggestions he may not be cherry-ripe here and he could also need softer ground.

Forever William was confirmed on Thursday but he isn’t eligible (you have to be rated at least 120 here), so this is now a three-runner race.

There was £3,885 on offer for fourth place, so a rare misstep by Skelton, who is normally very adept at chasing, and acquiring, free money in these circumstances.

3.10pm Doncaster – Pace angle points to 40/1 Glor Tire

If I am going to have a bet in this race (unlikely perhaps) then it will be Glor Tire at 40s (although there will be a Rule as 7s poke Albany has just been pulled out after a bad scope)

She is pretty much the only confirmed pace angle I could see in the race, even if she didn’t get to the front when disappointing on her stable debut in Sweden last time. That run is easily forgiven.

Her earlier efforts for Jim Bolger (she was bought for 82,000 guineas in July) make her of interest at the price, and all four of her successes have come from forcing tactics.

She is available at 14s without the front two

The Jane Chapple-Hyam yard is in good form, with three recent winners, and Glor Tire could provide a shock on ground she handles if getting her own way out in front.

Even with Albany out, she is available at [14/1] with one firm in the betting without Danielle and Diamond Rain. Not a price I would get close to offering myself.

3.30pm Wincanton – 14/1 Riskintheground too big despite the stamina doubt

Lord Accord was clearly overpriced at a general 7s earlier in the week, but he has probably hit his true price of [7/2], even if this race has cut up to just 10 runners.

I can see him drifting, in fact.

Don’t get me wrong. I think he has undeniable claims.

He is clearly in good form, he will enjoy the likely ground and he is a course winner who finished second to Frodon in this race two years ago off an 8lb higher mark.

And he doesn’t have that much competition for the lead, for all he could have done without Gustavian being confirmed for this race from 4lb out of the handicap.

However, his current price is nothing better than fair now.

The interesting one in here is Riskintheground, not least because he is being tried over 3m1f here when he was also in over 1m7f99yd at Sandown on Sunday.

He has run over 3m just twice in his career, and all his best form to date has come over 2m4f and 2m5f.

However, he ran well enough when third over 3m at Kempton last October, especially as he didn’t meet the last two fences ideally.

Now, his stamina is clearly a big question mark here – and connections obviously think so too, given his other entries – and he runs off a career-high mark after an excellent third at Cheltenham last time (strong handicap form), but I am not going to peg him as a non-stayer just yet.

And his full brother Frontal Assault finished runner-up in an Irish National over 3m5f.

Put it this way, quotes of 14s and 12s look too dismissive for me to ignore. Expect a creeping ride, with hopefully a menacing move between the last two.

Any double figures would do me, but take the 14s in two places. Win only given the stamina doubt.

3.45pm Doncaster – 17/2 Master Builder an each-way shout

This is another race in which I couldn’t see a lot of pace, if any (see the pace map below).

I was sweet enough on the chances of Valvano earlier in the week (was 9s then and is now a general 5s chance), and the same was equally true of Master Builder at 8s.

Master Builder remains that price, with five places (and more in two places) now on offer, so I am happy to take an each-way position.

In fact, he has drifted to [17/2] in two places overnight.

There are three 3yos in here and they could hold the key, getting 5lb from the older horses. He is one of them alongside Valvano and Minstrel Knight, who I have down as the most likely leader here.

Minstrel Knight actually had Master Builder 2 ½ lengths and a neck away in third at York last time , but he is 5lb worse off here and I reckon 1m6f in soft ground stretched Master Builder’s stamina there.

That said, Minstrel Knight is clearly a horse who could kick on again here, so I wouldn’t dismiss him lightly at all.

Master Builder obviously gets 1m6f standing on his head on good ground, as he showed when bolting up at Haydock beforehand (under today’s jockey William Buick), but in these conditions 1m4f could prove his optimum. He travelled well into the York race last time (hitting evens in running) before failing to see it out.

This is clearly a hugely competitive handicap and a full field of 23, but the selection surely has a huge run in him on just his seventh start, albeit I am a touch worried if he is man enough for the job in such a massive field.

David Menuisier has had a good season and his horses remain in fair nick – they have recent form figures of 10021222 – and hopefully he can sign off on a high here.

With Master Builder that is, not Waxing Gibbous, though she is a fair 16s poke….

40/1 Kotari could well be worth a saver

Feel free to follow me in if you want, if you can access the 40s about Kotari in one place.

That firm are betting to five places for each way purposes.

He handles testing ground well and I thought his fourth over 1m2f at Leicester last time was a very encouraging run with this test in mind.

It’s not a strong opinion, but the 40s looks too big.

Jason Watson will be riding near his minimum at 8st 8lb, so hopefully he can do the weight.

If I can get some of that 40s (working on it now….), I’ll have a dabble myself as a second string to my bow here.

It’s up to you whether you think similarly, but I can’t put it as a selection of such as the 40s is only in one place.

Good luck, all

 

BETS

Ten Bob Tony at [10/1] in 1.20pm at Doncaster. Available in three places.

Richmond Lake at [22/1] in 2.40pm at Aintree (the general 20s is obviously more accessible so that’s the call)

Riskintheground at [14/1] in 3.30pm at Wincanton. Available in two places.

Master Builder at [17/2] each way in 3.45pm Doncaster. Available in two places (but get the best place terms you can at similar prices; one firm are offering 8s six places, another 7s with seven places, most five – decide for yourself)

NB: I’ll also be looking to back Kotari at 40s here.

 

 

GOING AND WEATHER – UPDATED 9am Saturday

 

DONCASTER (updated  7.44am) – “Ground expected to be tacky” (as per BHA site)

Going:  Soft

Going stick: 5.8, at 7.30am Saturday

Weather:  Dry

 

AINTREE (updated 6.34am Saturday)

Going:  Good;  National course: Good to soft, good in places

Going stick – 6.7 as at 9am Saturday; National course: 6.5 (10.10am Sat)

Weather:  Dry

Watering: “5mm fences 1-6 in the country Tuesday. 5mm Thursday full circuits. A further 5mm selectively Friday to maintain. Moisture prior to irrigation Mildmay 40.6%, Country 42.1%.”

 

WINCANTON (updated 7.48am Saturday)

Going:  Good

Going stick: 6.7 at 8am Saturday (was 6.4 Thursday)

Weather:  Dry

Watering: “6/8mm applied to the majority of the back straight on Friday & 6/8mm applied to the winning post bend and home straight on Thursday.”

 

BALLOTED OUT (make sure you get your money back)

3.45pm Doncaster: Azahara Palace, Gallant Lion

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Joe Tizzard blinkers 1-11 since 2022 – Killer Kane, 1.09pm Wincanton

 

David Simcock blinkers 5-56 since 2009 – Sinology, 3,10pm Doncaster

 

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

2.40pm Aintree: King Turgeon (2lb)

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER

 

2.40pm Aintree: Galon De Vauzelle (4lb), Percussion (due to go down 2lb in future handicaps)

3.30pm Wincanton: Gustavian (4lb)

 

 

PACE MAPS FOR ALL ITV RACES (manually done)

 

1.09pm Wincanton: Dreaming Blue, Duke Of Luckley. Killer Kane (prom)

1.20pm Doncaster: Ramazan?, Ten Bob Tony?, Zoum Zoum, Balmoral Lady, Eminny, Sophia’s Starlight

1.30pm Aintree: Stolen Silver (prom), Bold Endeavour, Della Casa Lunga (prom), Guard The Moon, Magical King

1.45pm Wincanton: Pretending, Good Luck Charm (prom), The Height Of Fame, Strong Belle, Pure Theatre (prom), Ma Belle Noire

2.05pm Aintree: Imperial Saint (prom), El Borracho (prom), Grey Diamond (prom), Jack Holiday, Hunter Legend, Magistrato, Calgary Tiger

2.23pm Wincanton: Glynn, Insurrection, Soul Icon (prom)

2.40pm Aintree: Authorized Art (prom), Outlaw Peter (prom), Richmond Lake, Idalko Bihoue, Frero Banbou?, Percussion?, King Turgeon (prom)

2.55pm Wincanton: Rubaud, Aspire Tower, Brentford Hope?

3.10pm Doncaster: Glor Tire, Invisible Friend?

3.30pm Wincanton: Lord Accord, Gustavian, Al Dancer (prom), Remastered (prom), Mofasa (prom),

3.45pm Doncaster: Minstrel Knight (and he isn’t a guaranteed front runner). There are a few other prominent racers but distinct lack of pace in the race.

 

TRAINERFORM (manually done; includes a “Trainer In Focus”)

 

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TRAINER IN FOCUS: Anthony Honeyball

He has had a very quiet start to the season but he is starting to get going now, and most of his horses are running to form, and even surpassing their best.

He has had three recent winners and the form figures of his latest runners going into Friday’s racing read: 231133412.

Very encouraging if you fancy any of his Saturday runners.

But it is clearly a small sample and he is only one of a number of trainers going well at the moment, as you can see below.

 

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Good: Anthony Honeyball (very good), Dan Skelton, Harry Fry, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Olly Murphy, Keiran Burke, James Owen (very good), Harry Derham, Henry De Bromhead, Tom Ellis, Lucy Wadham, Roger Varian, Ralph Beckett (excellent probably), Jane Chapple-Hyam, David Menuisier, Hobbs and White, David Simcock (three recent runners, and 13-2 and 11-2 winners), David Pipe, Joe Tizzard, Jonjo and A J O’Neill

Fair: Paul Nicholls (maybe swinging into gear), Ben Pauling, Alan King (winner on Thursday), Venetia Williams (very small sample), Martin Keighley (arguably more moderate), Fergal O’Brien, Anthony Charlton (winner on Thursday), Neil Mulholland (winner on Friday), Mark Walford (winner on Friday), Stuart Edmunds, Donald McCain, Greenall and Guerriero, Gary and Josh Moore (winners on Thursday and Friday), Jedd O’Keeffe (no winners though), P J Rothwell (not many winners), Karl Burke, Richard Fahey, Kevin Ryan (probably good to be fair, as 17 per cent strike rate is above average for him), Ed Walker, Jack Davison (two runners, one winner at 7s), Mick Appleby (still struggling for winners), Grant Tuer, Daniel and Claire Kubler, Charlie Appleby. John and Thady Gosden, David O’Meara (needs more winners, though don’t we all), Ed Bethell, Ian Williams (few winners), Jack Channon (no winners, but one beaten a nose recently), Tim Easterby (winners on Thursday and Friday), Tony Carroll, Deborah Cole

Moderate: Emma Lavelle (winner on Friday), Sam Thomas (not many runners), Charles Byrnes (maybe harsh considering the horses he is running), Katy Price (not many runners), Adrian Keatley, Adam Nicol (winner on Friday, though), Archie Watson (a lot of big price horses, though), George Baker, Michael and David Easterby, Michael Bell, Henry Oliver (not much to go on, though)

Don’t know: Sarah-Jayne Davies (three runners, all at prices), Laura Morgan (two runners, but one a dead-heater on Thursday), Raphael Freire, Tom Dascombe, Clive Boultbee-Brooks (two runners, one second at 12s), D M Christie, William de Best Turner