TONY CALVIN: Former race winners to the fore at 16/1 and 11/1 on Friday

With 24-hour declarations for Friday’s racing, time was of the essence in knocking this copy out, so let’s crack on.

No slacking on the stats and information front though, even if the word count is a little bit snappier than usual.

That may be no bad thing if you are feeling a bit sluggish after the Christmas excess….

1.05pm Chepstow – 3/1 Nocte Volatus the pick of the early prices – but he has just been called a NR

It is soft, good to soft in places, at Chepstow, with a dry forecast.

That is proof of global warming if ever I have seen it….

We (originally) had the dead-eight in this 2m3f98yd handicap chase, but it is not a race I want to get involved in at the current prices.

I’ll take another look on Friday morning, though if you asked me for a lean at the moment I would have to say it would be the [3/1] favourite Nocte Volatus.

Boring perhaps, but sometimes it pays to be mundane when punting.

A horse with form figures of 2231 here, he clearly ran very well when second to subsequent Coral Gold Trophy winner Gemirande off this mark at Ascot last time and I wouldn’t lay the 3s myself.

Yes, if you want a bet then Nocte Volatus is the one.

Well, he was before he was declared a non-runner at 3.56pm. So this race has been reduced to seven from eight.

Mmmmm……

1.20pm Kempton – 20/1 Royale Margaux was stupidly big

The prices were all over the shop when they started to filter through early on Thursday afternoon. Seriously so.

For example, Dan Skelton’s West Balboa ranged from 2s with one outfit to [15/2] with another.

I’d have probably been more in the latter camp as she looks like a handicap project for later on in the campaign, though second-guessing this yard is not recommended (7lb claimer Heidi Palin rode a nibbled-at 8-1 winner for the stable recently)

She is definitely weighted to go very close though if the course winner can show her Aintree form here.

I was very surprised the handicapper dropped her 2lb for her massively below-par run in Listed company at Doncaster last time, a race in which she was the clear form choice but went from heavy odds-on to over 2s (Betfair SP of 3.44).

If you could have accessed all the best prices, the bookmakers were betting overbroke on this race early on Thursday.

The firm going [15/2] – they actually had her at 9s on Thursday morning – waved the white flag at 1.39pm and cut her into [7/2].

I have no idea what is going on with West Balboa’s price

And they have now just pushed her out to 8s just before this column went live. They clearly reckon they know something.

I’ve no idea what is going on, as her price keeps on changing.

And that wasn’t the only example of some weird pricing (I’ll curb what I am thinking for legal reasons….)

Royale Margaux was amazingly available at 20s in place early doors – the next best price was 11s and 10s, and shorter still elsewhere – and she’d be a fairly solid each way proposition here after a good fourth at Cheltenham last time.

The 20s became 12s at 1.44pm, and she is now 11s, still plenty big enough.

All very odd.

However, I can leave the race alone, as cherry-picking prices in this market isn’t really on.

That said, all the cherries have now been picked.

We are down to eight in this after The Lord Maid is a non-runner as at 3.49pm.

1.40pm Chepstow – 9/2 Opec the each-way alternative to the highly-rated favourite

If you believe the handicappers, then the French horse, Nietzsche Has, is not a bad price at all at [6/4] here.

He is rated 148 so, even with a 5lb penalty for his Grade 3 win in May, he could take an awful lot of whacking.

However, Opec at [9/2] looks a fair each-way alternative.

She too has a 5lb penalty to carry after her Listed race success at Newbury last time but she looks the best of the rest on form and on the clock – even if the runner-up was well stuffed at Leopardstown on Thursday, and the third has been humped since, too – and she should be unbeaten over hurdles.

She is obviously a smart filly who has improved for this discipline, and one that we have probably not seen the best of yet.

1.55pm Kempton – 1-0 to Henderson at the moment in the clashes of the titans

We are being spoiled this Christmas, with another mighty Willie Mullins v Nicky Henderson clash in the shape of Ballyburn and Sir Gino locking horns, and Rubaud is certainly not a no-hoper for Paul Nicholls.

As with the Christmas Hurdle – I don’t think I have ever witnessed a better training performance with a top-flight horse than the miracle Henderson performed with Constitution Hill, for all you can crab the form a touch if you were being uber-fussy – I don’t have a betting opinion.

It’s [10/11] Ballyburn plays [11/10] Sir Gino, with 16s Rubaud.

2.10pm Chepstow – 7/1 Tune In A Box a cracking each way bet – if all eight go

Another dangerous dead-eight for each-way punters .

See the 1.05pm at Chepstow and the 2,30pm at Kempton as to why it is so dangerous.

If I knew they would all go, then I’d be very interested in Tune In A Box at 7s each way (that price available with three firms), which seems a couple of points too big.

Unfortunately I don’t, so I will probably play this race close to the off, even if I have to take a point or so shorter, so I won’t tip now.

However, I’d be inclined to think a reproduction of his Cheltenham fourth over 2m5f on good ground last time could be good enough to win this, especially with the step up in trip on easier ground no hardship.

If you are braver than me, the 7s each way is definitely the current call as of now – I couldn’t put you off.

2.30pm Kempton – 9/4 Martator the right favourite to make it six in a row

This has just been reduced to seven runners with Calico coming out due to the ground. I thought he was best on good ground myself (though the Kempton ground has been easing despite minimal rain).

Mmmmmmmmmm.

It may be stating to the bleedin’ obvious but this race revolves around how much Martator has left in the tank.

Commiserations to whoever backed Martator to win off 117 at Carlisle in February when he finished third, as he has not looked back since and he is now rated 151 after five straight successes.

This is the classiest handicap he has been involved with – Edwardstone and Boothill are clearly the best horses he has faced and they don’t have to give him that much weight here – but the manner in which he saw off subsequent winner Kotmask at Ascot suggests he could be equal to this challenge, even off an 1lb higher mark.

However, it is all about price and [9/4] isn’t getting me that jiggy, not that I would fall over myself to lay that price.

Has this been a plan for 11/1 chance and hat-trick seeking Editeur Du Gite?

Editeur Du Gite is plenty big enough at 11s at his best here, down a mark of just 150 with a decent 5lb claimer on board.

He has been running like a drain over longer trips (dropped a massive 8lb for two starts, in which he went off at 100s and 80s) but if this has been the plan, they have got him here off a very winnable mark.

And, to be fair the horse,  he was still in front before an horrendous blunder immediately put paid to his chance in the Paddy Power last time.

He won this race by 3 lengths off 159 last season, and by 13 lengths off 153 the year before.

If this is a plot, and he cops, then I’ll be impressed. He is a bang two-miler, after all.

I will have to have a few quid just in case it is, and the 11s is too big to ignore (available in five places), for all there is plenty of pace pressure.

Any  of the general 10s is worth the risk, too.

2.50pm Chepstow – 16/1 Iwilldoit will hopefully do it, and Val clearly too big at 18s

First off, if you can get the 18s about Val Dancer in a place then take that.  That stand-out price is clearly too big about a lightly-weighted improver.

However, let’s cut straight to the chase.

Back Iwilldoit each way at [16/1], five places. That is available with two firms.

There is no secret as to his credentials here.

Sure, he will be 12 in a couple of days but Sam Thomas is mustard in producing horses fit and firing after a lay-off and this horse has been excellent when fresh in recent seasons.

He is back on the same mark as when winning Warwick’s Classic Chase after a 383-day absence last year, and he won this race in 2021, as well as finishing third to Nassalam last season (granted, he had a prep race on each occasion).

He may find one or too good in his advancing years, but hopefully not five.

3.08pm Kempton – Do we trust 3/1 Frero Banbou here?

If you said Frero Banbou, who has been called a fair few names in the past (not least by me), would be a 3-1 chance to put up back-to-back successes after his sixth in the Grand Sefton last month then you would have probably given your head a shake.

But he silenced the doubters off a tumbling handicap mark in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle last time, a performance thaw saw him raised 8lb in the weights after a 1 ¼ length win.

On the face of it, that looked a harsh rise – even though the third was 16 lengths away – but Frero Banbou is actually 1lb well-in here.

The Newcastle runner-up, The Changing Man, ran a cracker when a narrow second at Ascot last weekend, so the handicapper has upped Frero Banbou a further 1lb on the back of that in future handicaps.

It’s simply a matter of whether you can trust ole’ Frero to do it twice in a row.

I am inclined to, but I can just about stop myself backing him at 3s.

 

BEST BETS

Editeur Du Gite at [11/1] in 2.30pm at Kempton. Available in five places.

Iwilldoit each way at [16/1], five places, in 2.50pm at Chepstow. That is available with two firms.

Plenty of other possible bets for you to consider, too. Good luck.

 

 

GOING/STICK READINGS/WEATHER/RAIL MOVEMENTS – updated 8.45am Friday

KEMPTON

Going : Good to soft, good in places (Friday 6.45am) – ground is easing despite minimal rain

Going stick readings – Chase: 6.4; Hurdle: 6.2

Weather: They had a “very damp night but nothing measurable” – going stick readings eased considerably, though

Rails:

• 12:45pm: Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y
• 1:20pm: Race distance is now +40y to 3m 161y
• 3:38pm: Race distance is now +23y to 2m 23y

 

 

CHEPSTOW

Going : Soft, good to soft in places (7,10am Friday)

Going stick readings – Chase: 5.8; Hurdle: 5.5

Weather: Dry; maybe light showers

Rails:

Both bends shared, and moved out into fresh ground, distances as stated.

• 12:00pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 27y
• 12:30pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 27y
• 1:05pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 3f 114y
• 1:40pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 27y
• 2:10pm: Race distance is now +25y to 2m 7f 156y
• 2:50pm: Race distance is now +33y to 3m 6f 163y
• 3:25pm: Race distance is now +16y to 2m 27y

 

 

LEOPARDSTOWN

 

GOING: Good to Yielding. , Yielding in places (Chase) & Yielding, Good to Yielding in places (Hurdle).

Other Details:

Following 1mm of rain Thursday. Friday is forecast to be another dank and misty day, but current Met Eireann forecasts suggest the dense fog seen yesterday is less likely. Remaining mostly cloudy but with the chance of some brighter spells through Saturday and Sunday. Daytime temperatures of around 10C. All days – Chase Track set to the innermost Chase line. Day 2 Hurdles – Rail set 30 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 3 Hurdles – Rail set 5 yards out from the innermost Hurdle line. Day 4 Hurdles – Rail set to the innermost Hurdle line. All distances as advertised.

 

AHEAD OF THE HANDICAPPER

3.08pm Kempton: Frero Banbou (1lb)

 

BEHIND THE HANDICAPPER

 

1.05pm Chepstow: Can You Call (1lb)

1.20pm Kempton: Looking As You Are (3lb), Holly Hartingo (4lb), Fortuna Ligna (6lb)

2.30pm Kempton: Calico (1lb), Soul Icon (4lb), Traprain Law (4lb), Sans Bruit (4lb)

2.50pm Chepstow: Amateur (1lb), Classic Concorde (6lb)

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR

Paul Nicholls hood; Rickety Bridge, 2.10pm Chepstow  -16-59 (since 2014)

Gordon Elliott blinkers; Where It All Began, 2.50pm Chepstow – 20-162 (2009)

Kerry Lee cheekpieces; Atlanta Brave, 2.50pm Chepstow –  3-14 (2016)

Jonjo and AJ O’Neill blinkers; Beachcomber, 3.08pm Kempton – 1-2 (2024)

Jonjo O’Neill 20-130 (2009)

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually done; ITV races)

 

1.05pm Chepstow: Fidelio Vallis, Le Milos?, Lowry’s Bar, Georges Saint

1.20pm Kempton: Della Casa Lunga?, Pawapuri?, Holly Hartingo?,

1.40pm Chepstow: Nietzsche Has?, Hot Fuss, Mister Cessna (prom), Static (prom), March d’Aligre, Opec

1.55pm Kempton: Ballyburn, Rubaud

2.10pm Chepstow: Plantomofthepoints, Tune In A Box (prom), Bill Baxter (prom), Rickety Bridge

2.30pm Kempton: Edwardstone?, Editeur Du Gite, Soul Icon, Traprain Law, Sans Bruit

2.50pm Chepstow: Fontaine Collonges (prom), Your Own Story (prom), The Newest One (prom), Jubilee Express (prom), Val Dancer, No Hubs No Hoobs (prom), Atlanta Brave (prom), Classic Concorde, Evies Vladimir (prom)

3.08pm Kempton: Jet Plane, Highstakesplayer (prom), Frero Banbou (prom), Golden Son (prom), Deise Aba, Weveallbeencaught (prom), Beachcomber (prom), Dreaming Blue

 

TRAINERFORM (ITV races)

 

Good: Willie Mullins (very good), Olly Murphy, James Owen, Warren Greatrex, Alan King, David Pipe, Gavin Cromwell

Fair:  Paul Nicholls, Fergal O’Brien, Kim Bailey, Ben Pauling (double on Boxing Day so borderline good) , Jonjo and AJ O’Neill, Anthony Honeyball, Greenall and Guerriero, Nicky Henderson (very good Boxing Day obviously), Nigel Twiston-Davies, Venetia Williams (moderate for her), Tom Lacey, Sam Thomas, Dan Skelton (poor for him), Tom Symonds, Alex Hales, Harry Fry, Gary and Josh Moore, Lucinda Russell, Georgina Nicholls (two runners; one winner), Hobbs and White, Evan Williams, Jamie Snowdon, Nigel Hawke, Gordon Elliott, Mel Rowley, Joe Tizzard, Kerry Lee, Alastair Ralph (two horses beaten in photos at 18s and 11-2 on Boxing Day)

Moderate:  Keiran Burke (very small sample though), Christian Williams

Don’t know: Clive Boultbee-Brooks (probably moderate), Alexandra Dunn, David Brace, Harry Derham (only three recent runners – very quiet), Marcel Roland, Tom Dascombe, John and Rhys Flint