TONY CALVIN: DUTCHING play called for today, not a double

2.10pm York – 2/1 Harry’s Girl has probably done most so far

Regular readers will know 2yo races, with so little form to go on, are not my bag.

It is normally the domain of the sectionals sect and the overall Time Bandits and, while I am happy to nick their work on occasions, I wouldn’t pretend this is my forte.

Actually, I am not sure if I even have one…

Amo Racing like their 2yo newcomers revved up first time (unless they cost £1.75m the previous month, that is…..), so it’ll be interesting to see how much Love Olivia progresses from her Wolverhampton 7 ½-length debut romp.

She went off [2/5] there in a four-runner race and won apologising, but the runner-up has since finished 9^th of 10 at the same track and the time didn’t look anything special.

So backing her at [9/4] wouldn’t be for me.

Richard Hannon’s [2/1] poke Harry’s Girl – the [11/4] was taken early on Thursday, followed by the [5/2] and the [9/4] – did more on the clock when winning at Newmarket, so perhaps she is the one to beat.

But would it surprise you if any of these won?

No, of course it wouldn’t with so little to go on, and the nicely-bred newcomer Solana Rose is only 22s in a field that contains five unpenalised winners.

2.25pm Newbury – 12/1 Sweet Reward is playing a home fixture

This is a very competitive and deep 15-runner 75-88 handicap , but I suppose Burrito was always going to be put in as the favourite given the connections, the lightly-raced profile and the Group 1 pedigree.

But we haven’t seen him since he was beaten at odds-on on his second start at Chester in September and he has also been gelded , so he clearly has not been straightforward to train.

And this could be a pretty hot handicap – of its kind.

George Baker has enjoyed a brilliant run since moving to his historic stables, literally on Epsom racecourse – I see he had another winner last night at Kempton – and his Beauld As Brass, on a five-timer, is 1lb well-in here.

Having looked at this race time and again, I simply don’t have a betting opinion.

Newbury is Sweet Reward’s home turf and he still looks fairly treated after going up 5lb for a recent win here – he is still 7lb shy of his peak mark after that rise – and I suppose he is a fair enough bet if you can get the 12s, four places, with one bookmaker

However, 10s is the generally available price – one firm offer five places at 10s – and I won’t be having a bet in this. I can just see a plausible case for too many.

Mind you, Sweet Reward is currently [19.5] win-only on Betfair in a market that has only matched just over 5k as at 7am.

The decline in the exchange’s traded volumes on racing (and remember you have to halve the figure to get the amount backed) is so worrying.

2.42pm York –Austrian Theory and Brioni are my two against the field

I initially thought I wouldn’t be having a bet in this, but a horse being available at 12s each way, four places, who is 2lb well-in in a 13-runner handicap, wasn’t a bad starting point.

But then the 12s became 11s, and then the 11s and the 10s went, so I am now looking at just 9s with 11 firms.

I think he will probably drift back out, so I have a decision to make.

The horse in question, Austrian Theory is the oldest horse in here at six, and has 39 runs on his dance card, so he lacks the upside of most.

However, he has shown himself to be in rude health in two runs this season, and he was unfortunate not to win at Chester last time, being hampered a couple of times by the ½-length winner.

He is due to go up 2lb in the future – he races off a mark of 85 here, 19lb shy of the peak he reached for Charlie Johnston in 2022 – and he has a couple of fair efforts to his name at this track, so he looks a perfectly justifiable each-way bet at 9s with the extra place.

In fact, he is [17/2], five places, with one firm. That’s clearly the better option if you can access it.

I wouldn’t exactly trample over the next man to back him at the reduced odds, but he may be worth a small each-way tickle at the 9s.

It’s still the best bet I can see in the ITV races today.

The quick turnaround from Chester could actually be a positive, as he won at Pontefract last October after a nine-day break while he won at Epsom in 2023 just six days after his previous start.

Admittedly, that is rather a cosy, selective argument, as he has not run as well after very quick back-ups before too (including four days), but it isn’t a negative for me.

The way I would play him is have to half your intended stake each-way now – that [17/2], five places, is obviously the best bet – and press up later if he drifts. I can’t see him shortening much from 9s (not that you can second-guess the late market these days, admittedly).

I can fully see the case for Brioni too, as he shaped better than the bare result over an inadequate 1m on his return at Newmarket – it looked a tee-up job for races down the line, and maybe this 60k pot is it – but the handicapper likes him too, as he only dropped him 1lb for getting humped there.

This 1m2f winner will surely be seen to much better effect back up to that trip for his in-form stable.

He looks worth a small consideration at 8s each way, four places, with three firms.

That 4-length Ascot 1m2f win last September, off a 7lb lower mark than this, just three starts ago, gives him a big shout.

Again the [15/2], five places, is obviously the better bet here if you can snaffle it (see Oddschecker).

3.13pm York – The A-team would love it if this plan came together

This 1m Listed fillies race has delivered, attracting a field of 10 winners, with three unbeaten contestants.

On stable form alone, it will surprise no-one if one of those, Owen Burrows’ Glittering Surf, wins this.

Burrows is nine from 23 this season and this filly looked very smart when beating Bermuda Longtail (re-opposes here) by a length at Kempton last time.

Of course, this race is all about potential, so it wouldn’t pay to be too bullish here.

However, I was surprised to see Consecrated, who holds an entry in the Group 1 Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot, available at [11/2] in five places when I first looked at this race at 9.45am on Thursday morning, as she looked a fair ‘ole tool when winning at Newbury.

I was not shocked when that [11/2] and the 5s was taken during Thursday afternoon.

By around 5.30pm, her price had dried up to [9/2] in a place, and now it is only [3/1] across the board.

One of the pitfalls of going up with this column on the day-of-race, but it seems to fairer to do so. At least everything is bang up to date on the day and less likely to crash for so little moolah.

Anyway, back to Consecrated.

I love it when winning connections immediately have a plan in their minds after a race – and see it through.

Maureen Haggas said after the filly won at Newbury on April 11: “Consecrated is a beautifully bred filly and you hope they’d come out and do something like that. Cieren [Fallon, rider] couldn’t pull her up and she’s going to get further. We’ll probably step her up to a mile next time, and we might look at the Listed Michael Seely at York.”

This Frankel filly is a half-sister to the stable’s 112-rated Group 3 winner Sacred and the Newbury form is working out pretty well.

And Maureen was right about the filly taking a while to pull up.

The runner-up ran well in defeat next time and the third and fourth won next time.

But the betting ship has sailed for me. A late drift may well see me reconsider, though.

3.45pm York – Epic Poet could win an underwhelming renewal but price has gone again

Don’t get me wrong, we have some good horses in here, but a turn-out of just five – and no 4yos – for a £192,200 pot is disappointing, no matter which way you cut it.

Perhaps all the 4yos are now in Australia.

Sure, the 7yo Rebel’s Romance, carrying a 5lb penalty, has won a mighty seven Group/Grade 1s (none in the UK), the 117-rated Sweet William has done wonders to see Kyprios’ arse close up so many times (he carries a 3lb penalty) and Continuous is a Classic winner.

But this does not get the blood pumping betting-wise.

Rebel’s Romance and Sweet William make limited appeal at [5/4] and [10/3] respectively – though the latter has drifted from [5/2] after the stable have said he will need it on his return – while [9/2] poke Continuous has been largely disappointing since winning the 2023 Leger and is tried in first-time blinkers.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the unpenalized Epic Poet won this, and I initially thought the early 9s, in two places, about him was just about the best bet if you wanted one.

But this is another case of a price disappearing for so little money 24 hours before the race. He is now generally a walkaway [13/2].

However, he looked an improved performer when chasing the Middle Eastern cash earlier in the year, he has decent enough handicap form around here, and this could fall into his lap.

I’d probably prefer Sweet William at [10/3] at the current prices, if truth to be told.

This is what John Gosden told the Racing Post about him: “John Gosden said: ” The old boy is fine, but he’ll definitely need the race.

“He doesn’t do a lot at home and the biggest problem will be before the race as he’s very fresh. It’ll be a bit of a rodeo show beforehand, but he’s in good form.”

4.15pm York – 20/1 Do It Now – or probably not at all

What kind of punting hell is this?

A maximum field of 22 for this 5f handicap.

And a 3yo handicap, to boot, with half of the field making their reappearances.

You are so on your own here, as this really is as difficult as it gets.

If you are desperate for an interest then I thought Do It Now, fourth on his return and 8lb lower than when running okay here in August, was probably the most appealing at 28s early on Thursday.

But appealing isn’t really a word I should be using when discussing this race, especially as the 28s has become 20s.

Mind you, he is [32.0] on Betfair.

King Of Light was pulled out yesterday due to the going. It will be interesting to see if he runs here on exactly the same ground.

In summary, Friday is a very quiet punting day indeed for me at the current odds, as I am not one for chasing prices all the way down.

Not a good betting approach.

Good luck if you are going at it harder.

 

BEST BET

Austrian Theory at the generally available [9/1] each way, four places in 2.42pm York (17/2, five places, with one firm is the better bet if you have the access)

(Please read copy here – and I have also played Brioni each way at 8s in same race – again 15/2, five places, is the bet there if you can get it)

 

 

YORK (no watering after racing on Thursday)

 

Going: Good to firm, good in places

Going stick: 7.0, Friday 8.15am

Going Stick readings in Home Straight: Far Side – 7.0  Centre – 7.1: Stands Side – 6.9.

Moisture Meter reading: 32% Wind speed and direction: NNE mainly headwind, 15mph gusting to 30mph

Friday morning course update: A clear, sunny Friday morning. Met office forecast: Friday – dry, sunny, 18 degrees. Live weather station link and live Met Office forecast link available on the York Racecourse website Going page at www.yorkracecourse.co.uk

Watering: No irrigation applied Thursday night into Friday. 20mm in last seven days.

Forecast: Dry and 18 degrees

Rails:  Planned rail positions: Friday – 13m out from 9f to entrance to the Home Straight.

 

• 2:42pm: Race distance is now +43y to 1m 2f 99y
• 3:13pm: Race distance is now +36y to 1m 8y
• 3:45pm: Race distance is now +43y to 1m 6f 11y
• 4:55pm: Race distance is now +36y to 1m 8y

 

Stalls: 5f and 6f – Far Side, 1m4f – Centre, Remainder – Inside Rail.

 

NEWBURY 

Going: Good, good to firm in places

Soil moisture average =45% (Thursday)

Going Stick: 6.1, Friday 6am

Friday morning course update: Only 14C yesterday, cloudy, and we lost just 1.5mm in evaporation (ET) – 21.8mm total over the past 7 days. Forecast: Cloudy start, sunny later (22C).

Watering: 30-32mm applied last week. 8-12mm applied Tuesday. 6-8mm applied Wednesday/ Thursday.

Forecast: Dry and 22 degrees

Rails: All rail on the inner most line

Stalls:1m2f & 1m4f – Inside Remainder (straight course) – Centre

 

 

FIRST-TIME HEADGEAR STATS

 

Aidan O’Brien blinkers 55-333 (since 2009) – Continuous, 3.45pm York

 

Karl Burke cheekpieces 16-193 (2016) – King Of Light, 4.15pm York

 

Scott Dixon cheekpieces 1-68 (2016) – Golden Pharoah, 5.30pm York

 

 

PACE MAPS (manually assessed)

 

2.10pm York (limited evidence): Love Olivia, Saucy Jane

2.25pm Newbury: Burrito, Gloucestershire (prom), Eagle Day, Sweet Reward, Silent Age, Into Battle

2.42pm York: Thunder Run, Salamanca, Westerton, Debora’s Dream (prom), Zain Blue (prom),

3.13pm York:  Bermuda Longtail, Consecrated, Glittering Surf, Serving With Style, The Third Star, Troia

3.45pm York: Rebel’s Romance, Continuous?

4.18pm York (max field of 22; no balloted out horses):  Against The Wind, Loom, Sudden Flight, Lexington Blitz, Mearall, Elouise’s Prince, Storm Call, Al Hussar, The Quiet Gent, Do It Now (prom), Jm Jhingree, Acrisius, Cape Sovereign, Boyne Lady

 

TRAINERFORM (manually assessed; ITV races)

 

Good: Aidan O’Brien (very good), John and Thady Gosden, Ralph Beckett, Jennie Candlish, Julie Camacho, Tim Easterby, Ed Walker, Jim Goldie, Charlie Appleby, Owen Burrows (absolutely flying this season), Kevin Philippart De Foy, Alan King, George Baker (another winner on Thursday), John Butler, Ollie Sangster, Richard Hannon (having a good week), Jack Morland (small sample), Jane Chapple-Hyam, Michael Bell (golden form), William Haggas (another winner on Thursday)

Fair: Andrew Balding (treble on Thursday), Karl Burke, David O’Meara, Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey, Richard Hughes, John and Sean Quinn (16-1 winner on Monday), Roger Fell, Michael and David Easterby, Marco Botti (borderline good), David Evans, Roger Varian, Ian Williams (getting better), Jonathan Portman (winner on Thursday), Hughie Morrison, Gemma Tutty, Chris Dwyer (needs a winner), George Scott, Richard Spencer (winner on Wednesday), Dylan Cunha, Adrian Keatley

Moderate: James Tate, Patrick Chamings (small sample), Robert Cowell, Grant Tuer

Don’t Know:, Martyn Meade