By Tony Calvin - 23 April 2025
The trainers’ title race threatens to reach farcical, and possibly protectionist, levels at Sandown on Saturday after Willie Mullins entered 38 horses on the seven-race card, with Dan Skelton a mere 33.
The firepower that Mullins could potentially unleash on the meeting is astonishing considering we had Aintree at the start of the month, the three-day Fairyhouse meeting is still going on and we also have Punchestown next week.
That is best illustrated by Mullins having 15 of the 34 entries for the bet365 Gold Cup, with six of the first seven in the weights (or, to put it another way, nine of the top 13, or 12 of the top 20 – 20 is the maximum field).
That race is worth 175k with prize money down to eighth.
Now, I don’t agree with capping numbers for trainers, as a lot of the horses have different owners – and, of course, he won’t run them all, and this is only the five-day stage, after all – but it has to be considered an unhealthy, and possibly unfair, state of affairs.
Mullins can effectively stop whoever he wants from number 21 down in the weights from getting a run.
Including Skelton’s three.
And, elsewhere on the card, there is a frightening array of Grade 1 talent, many of whom have double entries (see below).
It’s only a minor consideration but Mullins (and Skelton) have killed ante-post betting on the card stone dead on many of the races (including three of the ITV races).
Anyway, I’ll have a look to see if a bet can be salvaged from the wreckage…..I’m not hopeful, even if bookmakers have priced up five races (and trust me, even a whiff of an unexpected bet on one of the high-profile doubly-entered horses, and prices will crash).
You suspect he just wins the trainers’ title if he wants to, given that Saturday ammo.
Oh, by the way, rain is due everywhere on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Sandown could get up to 13mm, Leicester 11m and Haydock 8mm.
It is on the quick side at Sandown (see below), but they could get 13mm of rain on Wednesday (due to start on Tuesday evening and finish on Wednesday morning, so watering is on hold).
A five-day field of 20 for this 2m handicap hurdle (there is a maximum field of 20 on the day) and this is one race in which Mullins and Skelton don’t have a runner (this is a Novices’ Championship Final).
One of these, Don’t Mind If I Do, is due to run at Ludlow on Wednesday, so I wouldn’t touch him for now – he was a non-runner there, so he may run I guess – while Peacenik has another option this week.
Top weight Fingle Bridge is the early [6/1] favourite with three outfits– as short as [7/2] with one firm – and his recent winning form against Wellington Arch, and then Regent’s Stroll, certainly reads very well.
The downside is that he is up to a mark of 139 now, though they were considering running him in a Grade 1 at Aintree (taken out on account of the good ground), and the trainer is on record of saying he “wants proper soft ground”,
With that in mind, he wouldn’t be my ante-post favourite, as will they run him? (the weights go up 10lb if he doesn’t).
His ante-post backers will certainly be hoping that Tuesday/Wednesday rain lands, though it is due to be warm and dry thereafter.
Against that, Timeform called it good to soft when he beat Wellington Arch at Exeter in January, but I wouldn’t go near him ante-post with the ground doubt.
The prices are all around the place for this race at the moment.
Elsewhere, Nardaran ranges from 4s to 10s (4s with the firm that sponsors him, even though the horse is currently 5lb out of the handicap, though the stable has connections with Fingle Bridge….) – his trainer, Paul Nicholls, has three in this – and Kientzheim is 7s in a place and as big as 12s elsewhere.
The latter is thought better than she has shown so far (rated just 120) and is Nicky Henderson’s sole entry. She represents JP McManus, who had a 1-2 in this race with Under Control and Iberico Lord in 2023.
I’ll have another look at this race in a bit when the weights are confirmed and published.
Big Ginge looks a very fair each way price to me at 25s, four places.
He was beaten only 6 1/4 lengths when 5lb out of the handicap in the Imperial Cup here last time and the lightly-raced 5yo’s only previous start at this course saw him beaten a short-head here in November.
I love track form at Sandown (yes, I know I go on about it) and I wouldn’t get close to laying him at the 25s with three firms as this goes live.
I’ve no idea if he is an intended runner, but this 100k pot would be a good place to lose his maiden tag for a stable that won this race in 2018 (not that the yard are in good form at the moment, though they had an 11-10 winner at Hereford on Tuesday evening).
And, looking at his form away from Sandown, his second to Jurancon at Newbury in January (a qualifier for this race) reads pretty well, too. He has gone up 3lb since but the 2 3/4-length winner followed up next time, and the third won afterwards, too.
He could be more of a 10s poke on the day if running.
I am surprised four betting outfits (six firms) have priced this up, as it looks a complete nightmare.
These are the double-entered horses: Boombawn, El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Heart Wood (ran poorly on Monday), Heltenham, Il Etait Temps, Journey With Me (ran moderately on Monday), Master Chewy, Riskintheground and Sail Away
They include the [2/1] favourite Gaelic Warrior – he is also in the Celebration Chase, and in two Punchestown races next week – the 6s third favourite El Fabiolo and the 10s fourth in line, Il Etait Temps.
No-one knows what is going on.
Pic D’Orhy is probably only second in at 3s by default but you could actually argue he is the safest betting proposition in here.
A mess from an ante-post perspective.
Why would you price it up?
Jonbon is [8/11] in a place for this, and [4/7] with the other four firms who have priced this up
The reason why he is so short?
Cop this.
The double-entries for this 17-runner 175k race are: Asta La Pasta (ran poorly on Monday), Boombawn, Captain Guinness (also in at Punchestown next week), Edwardstone (also in at Punchestown next week), Energumene (also in at Punchestown next week), Etalon (entered overnight at Perth on Wednesday), Gaelic Warrior, Heltenham, Il Etait Temps, Impaire Et Passe (also in at Punchestown next week). Master Chewy, Rubaud (also in at Punchestown next week), Sans Bruit (won on Monday).
Yeah, a very enticing race to price up.
If you know how Mullins plans to attack this race, there is money to be had.
If you don’t (and Mullins probably doesn’t know himself yet), then it is obviously rather tricky.
His High Class Hero is the favourite at a best-priced 6s – as short as [7/2] elsewhere, – followed by stablemates Dancing City and Captain Cody at 8s and 10s respectively.
Furthermore, if Mullins runs his Grand National third Grangeclere West, then only three horses from other stables (Threeunderthrufive, Victtorino and Monbeg Genius – all pulled up last time, and Victtorino’s stable is in pretty woeful form, as 1-42 in March and April ) will run from their correct marks.
The weights go up 13lb if Grangeclere West isn’t confirmed on Thursday morning (and remember he can be pulled out afterwards….), which would change the shape of the race dramatically.
To say Mullins has a vice-like grip on this race is something of an understatement.
The double-entries are: Grangeclere West (also in at Punchestown next week), Captain Cody (also in at Punchestown next week), Dancing City (also in at Punchestown next week, Quai De Bourbon (third in Irish National on Monday), High Class Hero (also in at Punchestown next week), Lombron, Olympic Man (also in at Punchestown next week), O’Moore Park, Paggane (entered overnight on Wednesday), Chosen Witness, Sail Away, Holy Joe Smoke, Thisformismighty
Minella Cocooner was arguably the biggest hard-luck story in the Grand National (vying with Grangeclere West, who made a mistake at the last, for that title), as Jonathan Burke’s saddle slipped before the first.
So he performed miracles to finish seventh, weakening late on, especially as that slipped saddle probably contributed to the ground-costing mistakes he made on the way round.
He is 2lb lower here and he won this race on good ground last season (he has form on heavy if required – highly unlikely) off just a 4lb lower mark.
He isn’t entered in any other race this week, or next, so he is a tempting enough proposition at 20s in a place and the general 16s.
If he is confirmed on Thursday and runs – and I have no idea if he is an intended starter, given the National was just three weeks ago – he is the type of horse I can see vying for favouritism on the day.
There is no exchange market to speak of – and I can’t be arsed to walk to a shop – so I have had the mammoth maximum allowed bet of £15.75 each way at 16s and hope he is one of the possible 15 Mullins massive that rocks up.
Life in the 2025 punting fast lane.
As I said above, there is something to bear in mind in this Grade 2 Select Hurdle.
“If Mullins seals the title early on Saturday, then he could take out horses in the later races, which would obviously be losers ante-post.”
Mullins has pulled out horses late on in the day at this meeting before, and taken a fine (£1k, when Vroum Vroum Mag was taken out of this very race, and it was just a Listed race back then, in 2016 when he couldn’t catch Paul Nicholls in the title race – and Mullins was not best pleased).
Indeed, that horse was in the same ownership of Lossiemouth – and she won the Grade 1 at Punchestown six days later.
Was that really nine years ago? Time flies.
With that in mind, does Lossiemouth at [8/15] – she is also in two races at Punchestown next week – interest you?
Thought not.
Only two outfits (three firms) have priced this up so far (as at 9.46am on Tuesday).
The double entries are as follows: Billyjoh, Dorney Lake, Fahrenheit Seven, First Folio, King’s Lynn, Many A Star, Rousing Encore, Trilby, Wodao (some of these, and others in here, are also in an early-closer on May 3).
Fine Interview is the early [3/1] favourite.
The same three firms have priced this up, too.
As with Leicester, look out for the rain that lands on Wednesday. That could be key to one of the joint favourites, Qirat, running here.
Also be aware there appears to be a maximum field of just 12 runners for this on the day – we currently have 25 in the race at the five-day stage – so that is why we are getting 1/4 the odds 1,2,3 here.
There will likely be balloted out horses here.
GOING; Good
GOING STICK – Chase: 6.3 ; Hurdle 5.9 (Wednesday 10am)
Rails: Rails: Rails likely to be generally on innermost lines. Effect on distances tbc.
Watering: Watering commenced March 17 and has continued since then, with approximately 50mm per week applied over the 5 week period. Watering to resume Wednesday on selected areas of both Courses, mainly Back Straight – 7.5mm cycles.
Wednesday morning update: 4mm rain in March. 8mm rain Tuesday April 15. 6.6mm rain Wednesday morning. Dry outlook until 2-4mm overnight Friday into Saturday.
Weather: Dry
GOING; Good
Rails: There is a false rail from the top of the hill on the back straight all the way to the winning line, this has increased all the distances on the round course by approximately 15yds.
Wednesday morning update: 10mm rain overnight. Forecast- Mainly dry with sunny spells.
Weather: Dry
GOING; Good to soft (good in places)
Going stick: 6.7, Wednesday 9am
Wednesday morning update: 2mm Monday. 6mm overnight Tuesday. Wednesday & Thursday dry & sunny. Overcast Friday and Saturday, light rain at the weekend but mostly diminishing in the forecast. Max Temperature today 17°C.
Weather: Dry
1.50pm Sandown: Peacenik (Don’t Mind If I Do (non-runner at Ludlow on Wednesday due to the ground, so he may run now, I suppose)
2.05pm Leicester: Billyjoh, Dorney Lake, Fahrenheit Seven, First Folio, King’s Lynn, Many A Star, Rousing Encore, Trilby, Wodao (some of these are also in an early closer on May 3)
2.25pm Sandown: Boombawn, El Fabiolo, Gaelic Warrior, Heart Wood (ran poorly on Monday), Heltenham, Il Etait Temps, Journey With Me (ran moderately on Monday), Master Chewy, Riskintheground, Sail Away
2.40pm Haydock: Kodi Lion, Oriental Prince (three of these are also in an early-closer on May 3)
3pm Sandown: Asta La Pasta (ran poorly on Monday), Boombawn, Captain Guinness (also in at Punchestown next week), Edwardstone (also in at Punchestown next week), Energumene (also in at Punchestown next week), Etalon (won at Perth on Wednesday), Gaelic Warrior, Heltenham, Il Etait Temps, Impaire Et Passe (also in at Punchestown next week). Master Chewy, Rubaud (also in at Punchestown next week), Sans Bruit (won on Monday)
3.35pm Sandown (Mullins has 15 of the 34, and six of the top seven in the weights): Grangeclere West (also in at Punchestown next week), Captain Cody (also in at Punchestown next week), Dancing City (also in at Punchestown next week). Quai De Bourbon (third in Irish National on Monday), High Class Hero (also in at Punchestown next week), Lombron, Olympic Man (also in at Punchestown next week), O’Moore Park, Paggane (an excellent second at Perth on Wednesday), Chosen Witness, Sail Away, Holy Joe Smoke, Thisformismighty
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